Business
Yuan’s Decline Triggers Fears on Leveraged Bets
BEIJING – The sudden slide of the Chinese currency over the last week has raised fears that the yuan is nearing levels that could trigger an unwinding of billions of dollars in highly leveraged bets on the currency’s appreciation.
Traders and strategists say a portion of the yuan’s recent decline can be attributed to investors looking to get out of trades before losses soar.Daily trading volume in the yuan has exploded recently, tripling to $120 billion a day since 2010, when China allowed trading in its tightly controlled currency. The yuan is now the ninth-most traded currency in the world, according to the Bank for International Settlements, rising from 17th two years ago.
In the past year, trading in derivatives tied to the currency have soared as investors bet on a continued rise in the yuan. According to Deutsche Bank, approximately $250 billion worth of these derivative contracts were traded in 2013, the first year these products took off. Already in 2014, between $80 billion and $100 billion have been traded, the bank says.
The currency, which is also known as the renminbi, is up 33% since 2005. And because the currency is tightly controlled by the Chinese government, volatility is among the lowest in Asia, making the bet seem even less risky.
On Tuesday, the offshore yuan hit 6.1115 against the greenback, sharply up from 6.0984 the day before. Earlier in the day, the currency touched an intraday peak of 6.1250, its highest since it reached 6.1272 on Aug. 22 and the yuan’s biggest daily drop since Jan 28, 2011. China’s stock market suffered its biggest fall in five months, dropping 2.1%, putting its overall decline at 3.5% since the beginning of the year.
Individual investors and small- and medium-size businesses were among the biggest buyers of options that would profit from appreciation in the yuan, currency analysts say. They bought structured investment products that magnified gains but could lead to big losses if the yuan fell below certain levels. The rising yuan coupled with higher interest rates inside China led even more investors to buy yuan, pushing the currency higher.Ju Wang, senior Asian currency strategist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said losses on these products were small so far, but if investors believed they would grow significantly if the currency continued to depreciate, “they might take a mark-to-market loss and unwind contracts. So it all depends on expectations.”
Ms. Wang said that small- and medium-size Chinese exporters have been big buyers of derivatives because they allowed them to hedge against the rising yuan, which makes their goods more expensive to sell overseas and their revenues, which come in foreign currencies, smaller. In many cases, Ms. Wang said, the businesses are losing money in their operations but make profits because of the hedges, which generate a monthly income.
Greg Yu, the Asia ex-Japan head of structuring and solutions group at J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong, said wealthy clients of private banks also bought these products, mostly in Hong Kong, the biggest market for trading in the yuan, and Taiwan. Products designed to profit from the rising yuan are widely advertised by banks in Hong Kong, where bank deposits held in yuan are up by 50% in the last 18 months to 900 billion yuan.
The derivatives that underlie these products are based on the so-called offshore yuan, which trades in Hong Kong and isn’t subject to the strict controls on movements by China’s central bank for yuan that trade in the mainland. While the offshore yuan trades freely, it is broadly tied to the yuan price inside China.
The most popular among the derivative products tied to the yuan is the ‘target redemption forward.” The product is a leveraged bet that pays out every month that the currency keeps rising. But when it falls to a specific level, losses begin to mount quickly.Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and rates at Morgan Stanley, says that these contracts vary widely in value and in length. He estimates that banks have sold these target redemption-forward products with notional value totaling $350 billion since the beginning of 2013.
He says that if you take the $350 billion notional outstanding and assume the average contract has a year left, then once the yuan passes a specific threshold versus the dollar, every decline of 0.1 yuan against the dollar, would cost buyers approximately $500 million a month. That means roughly $6 billion in losses. The contracts are opaque so there is no way to know exactly what price the yuan needs to hit for the losses to begin, but Mr. Kendrick says a reasonable estimate is from 6.15 to 6.35 yuan to the dollar.
Mr. Kendrick says he believes the Chinese currency’s move will be contained but “we do acknowledge the risk of a volatile move higher in the cross, especially given the large amount of structured product traded over the past few years.”
Greg Matwejev, director of FX hedge-fund sales at brokerage firm Newedge Group SA in Hong Kong, said most hedge funds in the region were betting on a stronger yuan as well. “It was like free money,” he said. But the fast move downward forced them to sell quickly. “There is still a lot more pain before this trade shows signs of stabilizing. Very few funds are contrarian on this trade and all are seeing red at the moment,” he said.
He said if the yuan falls further, investors will be forced to sell their yuan and buy U.S. dollars, adding that if the currency moves beyond today’s trading levels of 6.12, it “will set off more panic U.S. dollar buying.”
– WALLSTREET JOURNAL
Business
Nigeria Hit Daily Averages 1.69mbpd of Crude, Condensate in October
Nigeria produced a daily average of 1.687 barrels of crude oil and condensate in October 2026, and met its OPEC quota for the sixth consecutive month.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that in strict crude oil terms (excluding condensate), the country produced an average of 1.51mbpd in October.
This is 101 percent of the 1.5mbpd quota set by OPEC.
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The data, released on Wednesday, also shows that single-day production hit a peak of 1.79 million barrels, while the lowest for the month under review stood at 1.60 million bpd.
The crude oil data (excluding condensate) shows that Nigeria has met its assigned OPEC quota for six straight months, producing 1.53mobpd in May; 1.55mobpd in June; 1.51mobpd in July; 1.5mobpd in August, 1.53mobpd in September and 1.51mobpd in October.
On a month of month basis, however, production dipped by 1.7 percent.
The NUPRC attributed the stable performance in recent months to an enhanced operational stability, supported improved production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency.
The sustained growth recorded in October reflects the continued commitment of operators and industry stakeholders towards improving operational efficiency, maintaining asset integrity, and enhancing production reliability across the Nigerian upstream petroleum sector.
A breakdown of the daily average crude oil and condensate production by terminals/streams during the review month shows that Forcados Terminal accounted for 318.49kbpd while Bonny comes second with 311.02kbpd.
Qua Iboe Terminal recorded an average production of 173.97kbpd of crude oil and condensates while Escravos Oil Terminal posted a daily average of 134.67kbpd.
Bonga ranked as the fifth highest producing terminal, recording an average of 106.65kbpd of crude oil and condensate.
Business
Rig Count Hits 100, as NUPRC Approves 740 Drilling Jobs
A total of 595 well re-entries and 145 new well-drilling operations, alongside 39 Field Development Plans (FDPs) have been approved in the first 10 months of 2026, as Nigeria intensifies efforts to ramp up crude oil production and attract fresh investments.
In addition, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has sanctioned 740 drilling-related operations in the same period, as Nigeria’s total rig count rose to 100, with 46 currently active in drilling operations.
These details were made public during the management session of the 44th Annual International Conference and Exhibition of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) in Lagos on Tuesday, by the Chief Executive (CE), NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan.
The conference is held under the theme, “Energy Security in an Era of Global Disruption: Positioning Nigeria for Resilience, Competitiveness, and Prosperity.”
The approvals, which underscore increased regulatory activity in the upstream petroleum sector. Eyesan, who was represented by the Deputy Director, Basinal Administration, NUPRC, Ahmad Abdullahi, said the increased approvals reflected improvements in the Commission’s regulatory processes, particularly the time required to grant operational clearances.
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According to her, faster approval processes have reduced delays and the additional costs incurred by operators while waiting for regulatory authorisation to execute projects.
“Year to date, about 39 FDPs have been approved. About 145 new well-drilling approvals granted. Year to date, about 595 well re-entry approvals were granted.
That goes to tell that as a commission, we have improved our approval time level, which again reduces costs that are being wasted or for projects to continue to wait for approval,” she said.
She explained that the Commission’s priority was to ensure that regulatory approvals translated into increased production and adequate energy supply.
“From the regulator’s perspective, to ensure that our energy security is not threatened, we must ensure that we approve Field Development Plans and new well-drilling applications to meet our production targets and guarantee energy availability,” Eyesan stated.
On drilling activities, the NUPRC boss said Nigeria’s rig count had increased by more than 300 per cent compared with the level recorded in 2021, reflecting renewed activities in the upstream industry.
“We have more than 100 rigs in country. About 46 rigs are actively involved in drilling year to date. If you compare this with maybe what we had in 2021, you will see that you have more than about 300 per cent increase,” she said.
Eyesan attributed the growth in investment activities to improved regulatory certainty, noting that investors were more willing to commit capital when they had confidence in the policy and operating environment.
She also identified the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) as a major factor in rebuilding investor confidence, particularly in the acquisition of seismic data required for oil and gas exploration.
The NUPRC chief disclosed that multi-client seismic companies had invested more than $100 million in seismic data acquisition in Nigeria within three years of the enactment of the PIA.
“Based on our record, in the last three years, from the enactment of PIA, multi-client companies have invested more than $100 million in acquiring seismic data in Nigeria,” she said.
The investments are expected to deepen geological understanding of the country’s sedimentary basins, improve exploration decisions and support the discovery of additional hydrocarbon reserves.
On efforts to tackle crude oil theft and improve security across the industry, Eyesan said the Commission had introduced initiatives, including the Advanced Cargo Declaration programme and coordinated surveillance operations involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), private security operators such as Tantita Security Services and the Nigerian Navy.
She said the Commission’s responsibility went beyond punishing errant operators and perpetrators of oil theft.
According to her, the broader objective was to establish an operating environment in which legitimate crude oil production would be more profitable than crude oil theft.
Business
Dangote Refinery, Fertiliser Expansion to Employ Over 90,000 in Lagos
President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, has declared that over 90,000 people are expected to be working at the group’s petroleum refinery & petrochemicals and fertiliser operations in Lagos next year.
This is as the group accelerates investments to create jobs, strengthen industrial production and transform agriculture across Africa.
Dangote, who disclosed this in an interview, also unveiled plans to establish 20 fertiliser blending plants in strategic locations across the continent to improve farmers’ access to essential inputs and support year-round supply. The projects form part of an investment programme that could reach $65 billion over four years, spanning refining, fertiliser, petrochemicals, power, pipelines and other businesses.
“The refinery expansion is huge. By next year, we expect to have almost 90,000 people working on the refinery and fertiliser projects in Lagos,” he said.
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Dangote said creating opportunities for Africa’s youthful population was a central motivation for the group’s expansion, stressing that the continent needed more factories and greater domestic production to meet its growing needs. “My biggest concern is job creation in Africa. We have a very youthful population, and we are not creating enough jobs. We must push harder to create opportunities and keep our young people productively engaged,” he said.
The refinery expansion will add another 700,000 barrels per day of processing capacity, taking the planned total to about 1.4 million barrels per day, alongside additional petrochemical facilities and infrastructure. Beyond energy, Dangote outlined a fertiliser expansion programme designed to help turn Africa’s agricultural potential into greater production, more reliable food supplies and economic opportunities.
“We also plan to establish 20 blending plants in strategic locations across Africa. We intend to begin mining potash and phosphate in Congo-Brazzaville very soon,” he said.
He disclosed that the group was working towards nine million tonnes of urea capacity, with plans for 1.2 million tonnes of diammonium phosphate, DAP, and one million tonnes of NPK blending capacity in Lagos. Dangote said the objective was to ensure that farmers in countries hosting the group’s operations, as well as neighbouring markets, could obtain fertiliser when needed, without the uncertainty associated with lengthy import and delivery processes.
“What we want is for the countries where we operate, and their neighbours, to have fertiliser available 365 days a year. Farmers should be able to buy it when they need it, without worrying about supply,” he said.
Citing Ethiopia, he explained that fertiliser imports had to pass through Djibouti before being transported inland, creating logistical challenges that could leave supplies arriving after the planting season. “With local production, the fertiliser will be available there. We will also have one million tonnes of NPK capacity attached to the project,” he said.
Dangote linked the programme to his determination that Africa should build the capacity to meet its own agricultural input requirements, rather than remain vulnerable to disruptions in international markets. “At the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine crisis, the African Union went to Russia to plead for fertiliser. I said then that, within four years, Africa should never again have to go anywhere to beg for fertiliser,” he said.
He expressed confidence that sufficient access to gas would enable a much larger expansion in fertiliser production. “If Africa needs 30 million tonnes and we can secure enough gas, we can produce and supply it,” he said. “Africa has an enormous agricultural advantage. We must lead the effort to turn that opportunity into a major agricultural transformation.”
The group’s wider investment programme includes an initial ambition to develop 10,000 megawatts of power with some African countries and increase cement capacity to 100 million tonnes. Dangote said reliable electricity was essential to industrial growth, enabling African countries to process their raw materials, retain more value within their economies and create opportunities for their people. He disclosed that approximately $50 billion of the planned investment would go into existing businesses, while another $15 billion would be directed towards new ventures, including projects yet to be announced. The programme would be financed through a combination of free cash flow, internally generated equity and debt, he said.
Dangote urged African investors to take the lead in developing the continent, arguing that substantial domestic investment would encourage international capital to follow.
“I am tired of hearing about ‘potential’. We have been talking about Africa’s potential for decades. But Africans themselves must invest in their continent,” he said. “What gives other investors comfort and confidence is seeing us put our own money on the table. That is what we are trying to do. We are demonstrating that we are serious.”
He argued that sustained investment by African businesses was essential to unlocking the continent’s industrial and agricultural opportunities, while giving international investors the confidence to participate.
“Governments are always calling for foreign investors. But what attracts a foreign investor is a domestic investor,” he said. “We must demonstrate that we are doing something substantial in Africa so that others can join us.”
Photo Caption: Group President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote (left), in conversation with the President of the Republic of Namibia, H.E. Dr Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, during the official launch of the Dangote Namibia Tank Farm and Regional Pipeline Investment in Walvis Bay, Namibia, recently.





