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China, France drag on global manufacturing revival

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LONDON/BEIJING – Manufacturers around the world enjoyed a solid start to the year as order books swelled, surveys showed on Monday, though a struggle for growth in China and a downturn in France took the shine off the overall picture.

Euro zone factories had their best month since mid-2011 and, with unemployment near record highs, increased headcount for the first time in two years. They were led by a sharp pick-up in Germany and a revival among the states on the region’s periphery.

But France, the bloc’s second biggest economy, remained a drag on the region.

“The major area of uncertainty over the last few years has been the euro area, but the latest PMI numbers tend to confirm (it)… is on a gentle recovery path with the periphery gaining encouraging momentum as well,” said Philip Shaw at Investec.

“The latest numbers on China, and the UK, are a little less positive but there is nothing that would signal any major concerns about those economies from today’s surveys.”

Growth in China’s service sector growth slowed to a five-year low, putting the focus on concerns of an slowdown in Asia’s economic powerhouse – a factor behind the selloff that has hit emerging markets in the past two weeks.

The rate of expansion in activity in U.S. factories probably also slowed last month, figures due later are expected to show, echoing earlier data from Britain that suggested a swift upturn in factory activity there eased slightly.

Markit’s final Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.0 last month, pipping an earlier flash reading of 53.9 and comfortably ahead of December’s 52.7. The last time it was higher was in May 2011.

A reading above 50 indicates growth.

The sub-index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Wednesday and seen as a good guide to broader economic growth, rose to 56.7 from December’s 54.9, in line with a flash estimate and its highest since April 2011.

Germany’s PMI jumped to a 32-month high but while France’s rose to a 23-month peak, it held firmly below the breakeven 50-mark.

Factories increased headcount to meet demand, providing some cheer to policymakers after data on Friday showed unemployment across the bloc held near a record high of 12 percent for the third month running in December.

However, manufacturers were unable to raise prices last month as fast as they did in December, possibly stoking fears of deflation in the region after consumer price inflation dropped unexpectedly in January.

BRAKING CHINA

Recent numbers from China have painted a subdued picture of developments there.

The Markit/HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January, suggesting the overall factory sector contracted from December. A similar government measure also fell to a six-month low, although it indicated the sector was still expanding modestly.

A government PMI on the services sector fell to 53.4 in January, firmly in expansion territory but still the index’s lowest level since December 2008.

That run of data provided further reminders for markets of the pressures on the world’s top emerging market economy as Beijing tries to push major reforms without tamping down growth too much.

China’s government wants to reduce a heavy reliance on the investments and exports that have fuelled breakneck economic growth in the past three decades in favor of consumption and services, which it thinks will provide lower but more sustainable growth.

Barclays analysts, referring to manufacturing, said they estimated the seasonal impact of Lunar New Year holidays was minimal on China’s factory sector.

“In our view, much of the decline reflects (a) downbeat demand outlook and suggests continued softening in growth momentum,” Jian Chang and Jerry Peng said in a note.

Other PMIs on Monday showed Indian manufacturing running at its strongest pace since March 2013 and in South Korea the sector was expanding at its fastest in eight months. An Indonesian PMI showed a slight pick-up in factory activity

Last week, a Japanese PMI rose to its highest level in nearly eight years as new orders expanded at their fastest pace on record – a sign of strong domestic demand before prices rise with an increase in a domestic sales tax due in April.

– REUTERS

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CBN Warns Banks Against Sale Of Naira Notes To Hawkers, Announces Stiff Penalties

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a stern warning to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) over the illegal sale of mint Naira notes to currency hawkers.

The apex bank, in a circular signed by the Acting Director of Currency Operations, Mr. Solaja Olayemi, on Friday, emphasized that erring banks would face stringent penalties.

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As part of its efforts to curb the abuse of the national currency, the CBN announced plans to conduct nationwide checks to seize mint notes sold by hawkers.

Banks found to have released such notes will be required to pay a fine of 10% of the value of the affected cash withdrawn from the CBN on the date in question.

Subsequent violations will attract an additional penalty incrementally increased by 5%.

The CBN also reiterated its commitment to enforcing the Clean Notes Policy, warning that banks involved in hoarding, diversion, or any actions that disrupt efficient cash distribution would face appropriate sanctions.

With the festive season fast approaching, the apex bank urged DMBs to enhance internal controls to ensure transparent cash distribution.

It highlighted the need for proper utilization of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) to ensure easy access to new notes by the public.

Furthermore, the CBN disclosed plans to intensify its mystery shopping and spot checks, working closely with law enforcement agencies to clamp down on any practices that undermine the integrity of the Naira.

 

 

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JUST IN: Inflation Woes Continue As Nigerian Rates Climb To 33.88%

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Nigeria’s inflation rate surged to 33.88% in October 2024, up from 32.7% in September, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.

The month-on-month increase of 1.18 percentage points marks yet another strain on the nation’s economy, with transportation and food costs cited as the main drivers of inflation.

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Steep Year-on-Year Increase

Compared to October 2023, when the inflation rate stood at 27.33%, the October 2024 figure reflects a significant rise of 6.55 percentage points. This sustained upward trend highlights the worsening cost-of-living crisis for Nigerians.

Month-on-Month Breakdown

Inflation on a month-on-month basis also showed an uptick, rising to 2.64% in October 2024 from 2.52% in September. The faster rate of price increases further underscores the growing economic pressure on households.

Food Inflation Soars to 39.16%

Food inflation, a major component of the headline rate, reached 39.16% in October 2024, up from 31.52% in the same month last year.

The increase was driven by higher prices of staple items, including: Cereals and Tubers: Guinea Corn, Rice, Maize Grains, Yam, Water Yam, and Coco Yam. Oils and Fats: Palm Oil and Vegetable Oil. Beverages: Milo, Lipton, and Bourvita.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose by 0.30 percentage points to 2.94% in October, up from 2.64% in September.

Price hikes in Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil, Fish, Meat, and Bread categories were major contributors.

Annual Food Inflation Hits 38.12%

The average annual food inflation rate over the past 12 months climbed to 38.12%, a sharp increase of 11.79 percentage points from the 26.33% recorded in October 2023.

The consistent rise in inflation, particularly food and transportation costs, continues to erode the purchasing power of Nigerians.

 

 

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MAN Counts On Govt’s Support For Dangote Refinery To Boost More Downstream Investments

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The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has expressed the view that support of both Nigerians and the government for the Dangote Refinery, would enable the giant refinery to perform optimally.

It added that such support will also serve as an impetus for other investors to invest in the downstream sector of the petroleum industry in Nigeria.

The President of MAN, Otunba Francis Meshioye, who made the call after a tour of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Petrochemical Complex and Fertilizer Plant advocated that Nigerians and the government should do all they can to support the multi-billion-dollar company, which he described as a source of pride and a gift not only to Nigeria but also to the African continent and the whole world.

He described the Dangote Refinery as a game-changer in the Nigerian oil and gas industry, saying that it is not only creating jobs and driving economic growth but also contributing to our nation’s energy security and self-sufficiency.

According to him, the project is quite inspiring, and he admired the inspiration of the promoter of the project, Aliko Dangote.

He said, “To have been inspired to establish this facility is very magnificent, it is the first ever in Africa and the first ever of such refinery in the whole world. It has many first, first and first.”

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The company has the capacity to produce all our needs locally, petroleum, and other similar products: no one would come to the facility and he would not be inspired or encouraged to ensure that all the support that the company requires should be given to it.

The MAN President said the government should do all that is humanly possible to ensure that the facility works Optimally. “It is prudent and expedient that the   necessary supports are given to the company for the economic benefits of Nigeria.

“If the facility can produce 650,000 barrels of crude per day and Nigeria is producing far above this volume per day, she should give the facility all crude it needed to produce”.

He noted that apart from the fact that the facility can give Nigerians what they need locally, the excess will be exported, and when they are exported, the country benefits because it will earn foreign exchange for the government.

“So, whichever way we look at it, the facility requires the government’s support to be able to operate optimally.  We have seen the laboratory which is in a class of its own. It is first among equals around the world. It is functioning very well. It is a complex on its own.

“With this kind of facility that starts from quality control to quality assurance, just to ensure that the harmful effects of the products are at zero level, what can be greater than this? This is very unique and I will encourage all stakeholders to give maximum support, and not by the way support, but maximum support.

“I cannot see anything that is lacking in this company, we have been here since morning and went through all the units. The facility can deliver products between 1760 trucks to 1800 trucks per day. So if you have such several trucks going out of the facility a day to various destinations in Nigeria, so many people will benefit from it. There will be more jobs, many families will be comfortable because of the jobs this will create, many artisans will benefit and it will have a spillover effect on so many sectors of the economy.

“If they can produce AGO, gasoline and Jet A fuel, this is good and the government should have no reason not to ensure the facility gets its backing to carry out its activities, because it is going to benefit massively,” he added.

The MAN boss who stated that his organization is an advocacy group, said to a large extent it will support the Dangote Refinery by pushing its case with the government, and also solicit the support of necessary government agencies that can ensure that it operates fully.

The association, he said, always discusses with the government issues that affect its members and it has always listened to it , and always finds solutions to those issues, stating further that Dangote Refinery’s case will not be different.

“The sheer scale and ambition of this project is truly impressive, and we applaud the vision and determination of the Dangote Group in making this refinery a reality.

As manufacturers, we understand the importance of reliable and affordable energy in driving our businesses forward. The Dangote Refinery will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the entire manufacturing value chain, providing a reliable source of fuel and petrochemical products that are essential for capacity utilisation and value addition.

“I believe that the success of the Dangote Refinery serves as an inspiration to all of us in the manufacturing sector. It demonstrates what is possible when we combine innovation, technology, and investment to create world-class facilities that benefit the entire nation,” he asserted.

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