Rising global demand for aviation fuel and expanding refining capacity for jet fuel have pumped exports from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP), up by about 770 percent over the past two years.

But in about 24 months, the Kpler data showed that the global aviation fuel landscape has undergone a seismic shift, with the DPRP emerging from a regional startup to a dominant global supplier.

According to the shipment information, the refinery’s jet fuel exports reached a record-breaking 158,000 barrels per day in April 2026, representing a staggering 770 percent increase from its initial export volumes of roughly 18,000 bpd in April 2024.

In April 2024 when shipment commenced, exports to Europe were non-existent, as the refinery focused on initial trial runs and regional deliveries. By April 2026, European-bound shipments reached approximately 70,000 bpd. This represented an infinite percentage growth from the zero-baseline of two years ago and a nearly 133 percent increase in just the last year, compared to the 30,000 bpd seen in April 2025.

However, the conflict in the Middle East has acted as a primary catalyst for this shift; as European airlines and distributors move to de-risk their supply chains away from the volatile Gulf, with Dangote’s West African location offering a shorter, safer, and more reliable alternative.

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Besides, the African market has also seen a substantial strengthening in export volumes, growing from 18,000 bpd in April 2024 to 69,000 bpd in April 2026, a 283 per cent increase over the period.

This consistent upward trend highlighted the refinery’s role in replacing expensive imports from the Mediterranean and Asia that previously supplied the continent. Within the last 12 months alone, from April 2025 to April 2026, the data showed that exports to African neighbours grew by approximately 115 percent.

By providing a localised source of aviation fuel, the refinery has effectively insulated regional carriers from the worst of the logistics-induced price spikes seen in other parts of the world.

While Europe and Africa have become the dominant destinations, the Americas have also served as a vital, albeit fluctuating, market for the refinery’s excess capacity.

In the early phase of operations, specifically June 2024, the Americas received 19,000 bpd. By the time the refinery hit its early stride in February 2025, shipments to the Americas peaked at roughly 55,000 bpd. However, by April 2026, that figure settled at approximately 14,000 bpd.

Despite the recent dip as the refinery prioritises higher-margin European contracts, the overall growth from June 2024 to the February 2025 peak represented a 189 percent surge.

With the Red Sea remaining a high-risk zone for tankers, the journey from the Persian Gulf to Rotterdam has become longer and more expensive. Conversely, a tanker from Lagos, it was learnt, can reach European ports in nearly half the time without the need to navigate contested waters.

The Kpler data indicated that Dangote has seized this window of opportunity. Between December 2025 and April 2026, as tensions in the Middle East flared, the refinery’s total export volume jumped from 81,000 bpd to 158 bpd, a 95 percent expansion in just four months. This rapid scaling demonstrates the facility’s operational flexibility to meet sudden shifts in global demand.

Beyond the major regions, the “Others” category, representing emerging markets in South America and potentially Asia, has also seen a notable rise. Starting from zero in the first quarter of 2024, these miscellaneous exports reached 19,000 bpd by April 2026, according to the data.

With Aviation Kerosene (Jet A1) price persistently skyrocketing of late, Nigerian airlines have been forced to prune down their operations.

The airlines claim that the continuous spike in fuel price has pushed operating expenses to unsustainable levels, forcing tough decisions on route frequency and scheduling.

The latest to announce a reduction on flights is Ibom Air.

The airline, on Monday, said it may reduce flight operations to sustain services to its customers and the nation as the jet fuel crisis bites harder.

In a statement by the airline’s Group Manager, Marketing and Communication, Aniekan Essienette, Ibom Air described the worsening fuel price situation as an unprecedented crisis for Nigeria’s domestic operators, revealing that the cost of fueling one of its aircraft has more than tripled between January and today.

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He said: “From an average of N2.1m per flight in January, as of today, the 26th of April, we are paying approximately N7.6m to fuel every flight. This is a more than 350 per cent increase since the beginning of March, a space of just seven weeks! And our aircraft are some of the most fuel efficient in the domestic market.

“At this point, domestic airlines are baffled at why the price of aviation fuel in Nigeria has ballooned to this level, way above the rest of the world, while the fuel marketers obtain 95 per cent or more of their aviation fuel from Dangote Refinery.

The situation is exacerbated by the fact that a combination of competitive pressures and patriotism have prevented a commensurate increase in our fares, meaning that we and our fellow domestic airlines have had to absorb the immense operating losses resulting from this situation.

“We chose to do this believing that the crisis would pass in a week or two, but it has persisted now for nearly two months, continuously increasing, with no reprieve in sight as at today. While we continue to do everything we can to maintain normal operations, it is clear to us that the current conditions are unsustainable,” the airline said.

The airline also called on the fuel marketers to seriously reconsider the pricing of aviation fuel to make the airline business model continue to work in Nigeria.

Recently, Air Peace also announced that it has reduced its Abuja to London flights to three times a week starting from July 1.

The airline said this is due to the current aviation fuel supply which is affecting flight operations nationwide and around the world.

In a statement, it said: “We wish to inform you that our Abuja to London service has been temporarily adjusted to three weekly flights until July 1.

“This measure is necessary to maintain the highest standards of safety and operational reliability during this period, with full operational frequency on our London service scheduled to resume from July 1.

“We recognise that this adjustment may impact your travel plans, and we deeply appreciate your patience and understanding.” In the past few weeks , Nigerian airlines have raised the alarm over the astronomical cost of aviation fuel. Struggling to stay afloat amid a suffocating operating space, they called on the federal government to urgently cushion the heavy losses they suffered following a 300 per cent surge in Jet A1 prices imposed by oil marketers.

The spokesperson of the AON, Prof. Obiora Okonkwo, said in a recent television interview that fuel marketers are to be blamed for what they describe as deliberate price manipulation and artificial scarcity, accusations the marketers have denied.

He added that the spike in the price of Jet A1 fuel cannot be justified and that just a month ago, airline operators were purchasing Jet A1 at below N1,000 per litre, with prices ranging between N950 and N970 but that today, that same litre is being sold at prices ranging from N2,500 to as high as N3,300, an increase of between 150 and 300 percent depending on the location.

One of Nigeria’s domestic refineries, Waltersmith Petroman Oil Limited, has marked a major milestone in the drive for local energy self-sufficiency, with the successful expansion of its refinery’s capacity to 10,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The achievement was highlighted during an official inspection visit by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) to the company’s Phase 2 facility at Ibigwe, Imo State, at the weekend.

The delegation led by NMDPRA’s Authority Chief Executive, Saidu Mohammed, alongside representatives of the NCDMB, assessed the operational readiness of the upgraded facility. The Phase 2 expansion effectively doubles Waltersmith’s refining capacity from 5,000 to 10,000 bpd, positioning the company as a key contributor to Nigeria’s domestic refining ambitions.

“What WalterSmith has accomplished is no small feat. This is a powerful demonstration that Nigerians have both the capability and responsibility to take charge of the midstream sector which is the true engine room of our economy,” NMDPRA’s Mohammed said.

Besides, the NMDPRA highlighted the company’s compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and praised its operational standards.

Chairman of Waltersmith, Abdulrazaq Isa, emphasised that the expansion reflects both technical discipline and alignment with national energy policy objectives while maintaining strict adherence to regulatory standards, particularly those set by the NMDPRA.

“We are moving Nigeria beyond an extractive oil economy to one focused on value creation. By refining locally, integrating upstream resources, and building an industrial hub, we are laying a sustainable foundation for long-term economic growth,” Isa said.

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The upgraded facility introduces an expanded product slate, including Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK). These additions are expected to improve supply reliability for Nigeria’s transportation and aviation sectors, while reinforcing the broader goal of transitioning from a crude-export-dependent economy to one focused on value addition.

Regulatory approval is nearing completion, Waltersmith said, with the visit serving as a final assessment ahead of the issuance of a Licence to Operate (LTO) for full commercial operations of Phase 2.

Looking forward, Waltersmith said it plans to expand beyond refining through the development of the Waltersmith Industrial and Innovation Park, a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) anchored by gas-to-power infrastructure.

The initiative, it stressed, aims to attract petrochemical and manufacturing companies, supporting Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas” strategy and fostering long-term industrial growth.

“As we enter this next phase, our continued collaboration with the Authority is critical. We are not just building a refinery; we are building a self-sustaining industrial city that contributes meaningfully to Nigeria’s energy security and regional economic development,” Isa emphasised.

A defining feature of the Waltersmith project, the organisation said, is its partnership with the NCDMB, which holds a 30 per cent equity stake.

NCDMB’s Executive Secretary, Felix Ogbe, represented by the Director of Legal Services, Naboth Onyesoh, said the investment has not only catalysed a scalable refining operation but has also created substantial jobs for Nigerians.

“Our partnership with WalterSmith underscores the power of collaboration in driving local content development. This investment has not only catalysed a scalable refining operation but has also created substantial jobs for Nigerians and strengthened our collective capacity to reduce dependence on imports while improving national living standards,” he stated.

The project, Waltersmith stressed, also has strong financial backing, combining private investment with institutional funding from the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and the Bank of Industry (BoI). This blended financing approach, it explained, highlights the viability of public-private partnerships in advancing large-scale energy infrastructure.