In the background of reports of Nigerian fuel marketers re-importing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) processed products through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lomé, official trade data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Togo imported up to N105 billion worth of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from Nigeria.

The export figure was contained in the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Foreign Trade Statistics Report for the first quarter of 2026. According to the report, PMS ranked among Nigeria’s major petroleum exports to the neighbouring country during the period.

The development highlights a dramatic shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, which for years depended heavily on imported petrol due to inadequate domestic refining capacity.

Nigeria imported approximately $117m worth of petroleum oils (petrol/refined products) from Togo in 2023, and $72–77m in 2024.

It was gathered from the report that 2026 Q1 petrol exports to Togo were valued at N105.50bn, making the product one of the most significant energy commodities shipped from Nigeria to the West African nation.

The data further showed that gas oil exports to Togo stood at N278.36bn, while kerosene-type jet fuel exports were valued at N273.18bn. Crude petroleum oil exports amounted to N220.14bn, while partially refined oil, including crude oil that had undergone primary refinement, was valued at N89.83bn.

The emergence of petrol as a major export commodity follows the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has significantly increased the country’s refining output and transformed fuel supply dynamics within the sub-region.

The latest figures come amid revelations that petroleum products refined by the DPRP are increasingly dominating fuel movements across West Africa, with Togo’s offshore trading hub in Lomé playing a strategic role in regional distribution.

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An official of S&P Global Commodity Insights, Matthew Tracey-Cook, last Thursday disclosed that Nigerian fuel marketers have been importing refined petroleum products originating from the DPRP through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lomé, Togo.

Speaking during a webinar organised by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, Tracey-Cook said Dangote-produced fuel now accounts for the majority of waterborne petroleum products imported into Nigeria.

“Dangote volumes on a coastal basis do arrive back in Lagos from Lomé. Over the last six months, if you look at the volume of products on a waterborne basis that’s imported directly into Nigeria, Dangote production has become increasingly dominant,” he stated.

Providing further insight into the changing regional trade pattern, he added, “For several months, from March until May, we saw well over 70 to 80 per cent of the volumes that were imported into Nigeria actually originated from Dangote; from their coastal Dangote volumes which were re-imported.”

According to him, similar trends have emerged in the diesel market, reflecting the refinery’s growing influence on fuel movements within the region.

“The increasing importance of the Dangote Refinery in terms of product that’s flowing into Nigeria is really evident from the data,” Tracey-Cook said.

He explained that despite growing direct coastal deliveries from the refinery, the Lomé offshore hub remains a critical component of West Africa’s fuel logistics chain.

According to him, the facility allows large tankers to discharge cargoes offshore before transferring products to smaller vessels capable of accessing ports across the region.

“Lomé has become an increasingly important transshipment hub for filling regional shortages across the region. It serves an important purpose, given that many ports in West Africa don’t have the capacity to take a fully laden medium-range vessel,” he stated.

The NBS figures suggest that Nigeria is gradually consolidating its position as a regional supplier of refined petroleum products following decades of fuel import dependence.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) supplied about 5.84 billion litres of petrol to the Nigerian market in the first five months of 2026, which amounts to about 81.4 percent of total supply.

This was detailed in trend statistics from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) for the period.

This is as the legal fireworks from the matter instituted by the DPRP over the continued importation of the product into Nigeria continue ragging.

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A review of supply data for January to May showed that the refinery supplied approximately 5.836 billion litres of petrol during the period, while importers brought in about 1.330 billion litres, bringing total market supply to roughly 7.166 billion litres.

Further checks indicated that for every litre of imported petrol, Dangote supplied about 4.4 litres, reinforcing the refinery’s growing dominance of Nigeria’s downstream market.

According to the data, the refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres per day in January, translating to about 1.243 billion litres for the month, while marketers imported 24.8 million litres daily or approximately 768.8 million litres during the same period.

This means that during that month, Dangote accounted for 61.8 per cent of combined supply, while imports represented 38.2 per cent. Besides, national petrol consumption averaged 60.2 million litres per day during the month, while the refinery operated at 61.27 percent capacity utilisation.

In February, the data showed that the DPRP supplied 36.6 million litres daily, equivalent to about 1.025 billion litres for the month, while imports plunged to 3 million litres per day or 84 million litres in total.

The refinery’s share of market supply rose sharply to 92.4 percent, leaving imports with just 7.6 percent. Consumption averaged 56.9 million litres daily, while capacity utilisation increased significantly to 78.24 percent.

The figures come amid an ongoing court case initiated by the DPRP seeking to halt the issuance of import licences for petrol and other refined petroleum products that can be sufficiently produced locally. The refinery has argued that continued importation undermines investments, discourages domestic refining and weakens Nigeria’s drive towards energy independence.

Also, the DPRP and supporters of the refinery’s position contend that by banning imports, Nigeria would conserve scarce foreign exchange, create jobs and deepen industrialisation. They maintain that allowing substantial imports into a market where local production capacity exists sends the wrong signal to investors.

However, the oil marketers and other stakeholders opposed to a complete halt in imports have argued that maintaining access to foreign supplies remains necessary to guarantee competition and prevent excessive market concentration.

According to them, allowing multiple suppliers helps ensure price discovery, protects consumers from potential supply disruptions and prevents a situation in which a single dominant refinery effectively controls the market. A fully liberalised downstream sector, they argue, should permit marketers to source products from any supplier, local or foreign, provided they meet regulatory requirements and offer competitive pricing.

Similarly, according to them, imports provide an important balancing mechanism and ensure that supply remains stable whenever local production falls below national demand. The outcome of the legal dispute is expected to shape the future structure of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

Still on the NMDPRA data, in March, Dangote supplied 34.2 million litres per day, amounting to approximately 1.060 billion litres during the month. Marketers imported 5.9 million litres daily or about 182.9 million litres in total. During that month, Dangote’s share of supply stood at 85.3 percent compared to imports’ 14.7 percent. Also, national consumption averaged 47.3 million litres daily, while refinery utilisation climbed further to 93.62 percent.

In April, the refinery supplied 40.7 million litres daily or approximately 1.221 billion litres during the month, while imports stood at 3.7 million litres daily, translating to about 111 million litres. Dangote accounted for 91.7 per cent of total supply, while imports represented 8.3 percent, with national consumption averaging 51.1 million litres daily and the refinery operating at 99.22 percent utilisation.

In the same vein, in May, the Dangote Refinery supplied 41.5 million litres daily, equivalent to approximately 1.287 billion litres during the month, while imports stood at 5.9 million litres daily or about 182.9 million litres in total.

The DPRP’s market share for the month stood at 87.5 percent compared to imports’ 12.5 percent, while national consumption averaged 47.4 million litres daily. The refinery utilisation reached 101.25 percent, the highest so far since it started operation.

Overall, the analysis showed that the refinery’s capacity utilisation rose steadily from 61.27 percent in January to 101.25 percent in May, underscoring the increasing role of the facility in meeting domestic fuel demand.

Over the same period, imports declined dramatically from 768.8 million litres in January to 84 million litres in February before fluctuating between 111 million litres and 182.9 million litres in subsequent months.

The data further showed that the DPRP exceeded imported volumes by about 474.3 million litres in January, 940.8 million litres in February, 877.3 million litres in March, 1.110 billion litres in April and 1.104 billion litres in May, highlighting the widening gap between local refining output and imported supplies.

Optimism over improved domestic refining output and cheaper petroleum products at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) now hang in the balance in the face of a 62 percent crude oil supply shortfall.

The $20 billion, 700,000 barrels per day facility, which began operations in 2021, is facing a severe crude supply shortfall of eight cargoes per month.

To operate at optimal capacity, the refinery requires 13 cargoes (ships) of crude monthly as against five cargoes currently being supplied by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd).

This was detailed in a report by the African Energy Council (AEC), which highlighted that the refinery is currently running at a third of its crude oil requirement.

The report lamented that the refinery running at a shortfall is not because the feedstock does not exist in Nigeria, but because the system supplying it has a vested interest in keeping the import window open.

The AEC added that the decision of the DPRP to file a suit against the Federal Government, NNPC Ltd and downstream regulator is less a legal story and more of a governance issue.

“When your mandated crude supplier competes with you in the same market, a shortfall of eight deliveries per month stops being a logistics problem and starts looking like a structural one,”, the report noted.

It added that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 was supposed to settle this.

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Specifically, the AEC noted that Section 317(9) served as an implicit agreement with private investors to refine locally, meet domestic demand, and operate in a context where import competition is effectively limited.

“That compact is now being tested in a Lagos courtroom and the outcome will say far more about Nigeria’s investment credibility than any roadshow ever could”.

The think-tank group pointed out that the real cost is not felt in Ibeju-Lekki but at the pump, at the CBN’s FX desk and in boardrooms across the continent watching to see whether Nigerian energy law means what it says.

The AEC argues that Dangote’s crude dispute lays bare a governance failure that no court ruling can fully fix.

The body lamented that a state oil company acting as both supplier and competitor to the very refinery built to end Nigeria’s import embarrassment is a conflict of interest hiding in plain sight.

“Until NNPC’s commercial and regulatory roles are cleanly separated, the PIA remains a promise on paper, and Africa’s most ambitious private energy investment stays hostage to institutional self-interest,” it noted.

The drop in crude supply to the Dangote refinery is further supported by latest data released by the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Authority (NMDPRA) for the month of May.

The report indicated that crude oil deliveries to Dangote, including other local refineries declined during the review period. Refiners received an average of 578,000 barrels of crude oil per day in May, down from 612,000 barrels per day in April, representing a decrease of 5.6 percent.

Industry observers pointed out that the development suggests that while local refining capacity continues to expand, refiners may still be facing operational and feedstock challenges that require supplementary imports to bridge supply gaps and maintain market stability.