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Currency crisis looms as fiscal buffers dwindle

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LAGOS – The continued dwindling of the fiscal buffers- foreign reserves, excess crude account, (ECA) against the backdrop of rising and stable oil prices at the international market is responsible for the strengthening expectation that the nation’s currency, the naira, will dramatically lose value, Business Day investigations have shown.

Also, the current gap of over N13 between the official and parallel market rate which is creating arbitrage opportunity for forex dealers and lose fiscal stance of the federal government among others, is increasing dealers appetite for hedging through the growing desire to switch from Naira to foreign currency denominated deposits. The implication, they argue, is that naira will witness more depreciation.

Razia Khan, analyst with the standard chartered bank, London said, “It is correct that fiscal policy plays a key role in shaping expectations. Monetary policy has done pretty much what it can to restore FX stability. But expectations regarding the sustainability of a stable FX rate are heavily influenced by fiscal policy.

Currency crisis looms as fiscal buffers dwindleBy running down its external and fiscal buffers, the ECA, Nigeria proves itself to be especially susceptible to oil price volatility. In the event of an oil price (or oil output) shock, the perception is that Nigeria will not be able to defend its FX rate. Markets are forward looking, hence the pressure on the currency now. Monetary policy will continue to try to restore stability – but it can only do so much.”

Analysts and monetary policy committee members are of the opinion that this portends danger for the economy as the Central Bank of Nigeria is getting closer to the limit of its monetary policy, stressing that the projected 6-9 percentage inflation rate can only be achieved with stable currency.

A currency crisis is a sudden devaluation of a currency which often ends in a speculative attack in the foreign exchange market. A currency crisis may result from chronic balance-of-payments deficits or from market speculation about the ability of a government to back its currency.

Although most of the analysts who spoke with BusinessDay did not see devaluation as the viable option in view of the import dependent nature of our economy, they wonder why Nigeria with a $30bn current account surplus and with oil prices at $100 per barrel is not seeing an accretion in its foreign reserves.

Besides, they say that considering the rate at which ECA is being depleted, we may wake up next year to discover that nothing is left in the account.

Another concern is the fact that no one seems to be in charge or accountable for management of oil income and questioned the relevance of the economic management team.

“That is why you have all the noise of accusation and denial with regards to what has accrued to the NNPC that is not remitted to the nation’s coffers,” says one close currency watcher

“Somehow, somebody will have to make sense of the oil production and revenue numbers. We are all going to pay a huge price for negligence as CBN can not continue to defend the naira as its balance sheet has very little wiggle room, he told BusinessDay.

Bismark Rewane in recent LBS breakfast meeting for February said that weaker naira will impair earnings of banks and also increases risk of default on dollar-denominated loans.”

Doyin Salami, in his contributions at the last MPC meeting said “From the perspective of economics theory, a persistent surplus on our current account, resulting from high oil price, should see the Naira strengthen. However, the failure to build reserves has resulted in strengthening expectation of that the Naira will lose value. This expectation has been manifested in a continuing switch from Naira to foreign currency denominated deposits –a trend I had previously described as “retail hedging.”

Unless the Fiscal side shows significant improvement imminently, the options for monetary policy may become glaringly inconsistent with the objectives and policy direction for the economy in Nigeria. For monetary policy, the challenge of managing the internal and external value of the Naira is a core element of its mandate. Achieving inflation rate of 6 ‐9 per cent in 2014 requires a stable currency.”

Salami further observed that the model articulated, in various documents, for the growth and development of the larger economy in Nigeria is predicated on Import substitution and for CBN to achieve price stability, “import substitution requires a stable, even strong currency.”

He said that given the data and information laid before the committee members “the immediate and emerging build up of banking system liquidity, it is clear that there is a need to respond to the pressure on the currency and forestall the build-up of further pressure. However, it is increasingly clear that we are approaching the limits for using the cost of credit as a management tool without inflicting damage on the growth and development aspirations of the economy.”

Sarah Alade, deputy governor and member of the MPC said, “Already, available data suggest that Gross Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and portfolio inflows decreased significantly in the last quarter of 2013. Given that monetary policy is approaching its limit, there is need to allow for more flexibility in the exchange rate”

Suleiman Barau, another member of MPC said that the current crisis was “aggravated by activities of politicians who may have been forced to recourse to the use of foreign currencies to avoid charges associated with Naira cash withdrawals. The aggravated demand for foreign exchange (for transfers/Letter of Credit valid) that we have seen in 2013 is largely in the area of invisibles which has increased by 23.8% from 24% ($13.3b) to 48.2% ($26.1b) during corresponding period in 2012.”

Kingsley Moghalu, deputy governor and also a member of the committee said, “The role of fiscal factors in the current difficulties, marked by a severe decline in the Excess Crude Account over the past year, thus leaving the country dangerously vulnerable to external shocks as a result of the lack of fiscal savings. There is no indication that this situation will change in the near to medium term.”

– BUSINESS DAY

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Tinubu Moves To Transform Tragedy To Prosperity With Livestock Investment

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Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is of the view that his administration’s renewed focus in driving international and local investments into livestock sector of the agricultural value-chain will end the crisis of farmer-herder clashes, eradicate hunger and poverty in addition to promoting economic prosperity.

President Tinubu said this Thursday in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil at the signing of a Letter of Intent between the Nigerian Government and the JBS S.A, one of the top three largest meat processing companies globally.

“What we are doing right now is that we are solving a problem that afflicted humanity in that part of Africa, clashes between farmers and migrating cows that have caused some life and bloodshed when there is a modern, civilized way to solve those problems and even bring a successful economy out of it.

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“We are trying to turn a situation of tragedy, hopelessness into economic opportunity, see through problems and see the opportunity that is involved in it.”

The Nigerian leader called on the company to see the considerable potentials in what he called the $2.5billion livestock investment opportunities in Nigeria, especially with its huge population and tap into it, given JBS S.A’s globally recognized expertise in the area of guaranteeing food security.

“We’ve heard so much about you in terms of the reputation, and we believe in the partnership we are forging today.

“Food security is extremely important. As we talk right now, there is hunger. However, there is huge hope. And you are one of those hopes that we are looking at.”

President Tinubu told the JBS top executives that Nigeria is ready to do business with them, assuring them of a good return on their investment.

Prior to his visit to Brazil, President had commissioned a team of Nigerian officials and private sector players to take the advantage of the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio to conduct a study tour of Sao Paulo, Brazil and explore the opportunities in livestock development, meat processing, seed development and multiplication for key grains.

In his remarks, the Minister of Livestock Development, Idi Muhktar Mahia, who led the delegation, reported to the President that the team embarked on guided, extended and intensive tours of companies on the scale of their global reach, the integrated nature of their operations as well as the deployment of advanced technology. He added that from their interactions with various companies, JBS S.A. was chosen being the second largest meat processing company in the world with the capacity to process 33,000 cattle daily and over eight million birds daily, using advanced zero-waste practices. The company employs over 200,000 people across its subsidiaries in more than 50 countries in the world including United States, Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia among others.

Wesley Batista, founder and President of the JBS group, said the company is the largest employer of labour in Brazil with over $79 billion dollars revenue already in year 2024.

“We are glad to work with Nigeria to work together to develop the livestock industry there. We think it’s a good opportunity for our business in Nigeria and Africa as we believe Nigeria can be the center of supply of protein to many countries in Africa. We look forward to working with you. We are almost in December and this year is almost gone. We hope to be in Nigeria as soon as possible,” the founder and Chief Executive said.

Other members of the delegation included Minister of State Agriculture and Food Security Hon. Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi, Co-chairman Presidential Livestock Reform Committee, Professor Attahiru Jega, the Secretary of the Committee, Professor Mohammed Kuta Yahya, and the Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian Investment Promotion Council, Aisha Rimi.

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NANTA Champions Nigeria’s Tourism Revival With ₦742m Investment

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The National Association of Nigeria Travel Agencies (NANTA) has disclosed an investment of ₦742 million over the past three years to position Nigeria as a premier tourism destination at the annual World Travel Market (WTM) in London.

Speaking in Lagos on Thursday, NANTA’s immediate past president, Mrs. Susan Akporiaye, revealed that the funds were used for exhibition pavilions, magazine publications, and logistical support for members attending the prestigious trade show.

“In three years, NANTA has spent ₦742,226,100 to deliberately put Nigeria on the global tourism map at the WTM. This was achieved with only skeletal support in 2022 and 2023,” Akporiaye said.

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According to Akporiaye, the association received minimal support in its early years of participation.

In 2022, La Campagne Tropicana Beach Resort and Air Peace contributed by placing advertisements on the Nigerian pavilion and in the association’s magazine. By 2023, Ibom Air joined the effort, supporting NANTA with adverts, while La Campagne Tropicana maintained its support.

The 2024 edition, however, marked a turning point. Akporiaye noted that for the first time, Ibom Air went beyond advertisements to co-exhibit, alongside Eko Hotels and Sabre Travel Network. Their contributions made Nigeria’s representation at WTM more robust and impactful.

“Sabre Travel Network also supported us, so we had their graphics, as well as Ibom Air’s, displayed on our stand. Their contributions made our 2024 participation very grand,” she added.

Akporiaye highlighted that 90% of the funds for WTM participation came directly from NANTA members, underscoring their commitment to Nigeria’s tourism development.

“This shows that we are true patriots, and we deserve national recognition for our efforts,” she said.

NANTA began attending the WTM in 2022 to fill the gap left by Nigeria’s absence from the event for over 10 years.

The association saw the need to promote the country’s tourism potential and create international business opportunities for its members.

“It’s been a wonderful and successful three years that NANTA has participated in WTM, filling the gap left by Nigeria’s absence for over 10 years. We are glad to have handed over the baton of Nigeria’s participation at WTM to the Nigerian government this year,” Akporiaye said.

Through its participation, NANTA has secured affiliations with international tourism boards, organized product training for members, and raised awareness about Nigeria as a destination.

These efforts have also led to partnerships with global airlines and travel boards, fostering significant growth for members’ businesses.

“Our participation at WTM has helped members’ businesses grow significantly. We have formed partnerships with airlines and travel boards worldwide.

“Our greatest achievement at WTM is drawing Nigeria’s attention back to the need to exhibit at the global travel market,” Akporiaye said.

The initiative has also inspired members to expand their horizons into global Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) events.

 

 

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CSR: Dangote Cement Fuels Education With Support Projects At Lagos Schools

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Dangote Cement Plc, a leading cement manufacturer, has donated multi-million Naira educational support projects to secondary schools in Lagos as part of its social investment initiatives.

The company in a statement explained that the move is aimed at complementing the government’s efforts in providing quality and sustainable education in the state.

It was gathered that the projects were commissioned and handed over to various schools in the Ikoyi-Obalende Local Council Development Area, align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on education. These goals focus on ensuring inclusive, equitable, and quality education, as well as promoting lifelong learning opportunities for all.

The projects, warmly received by both teachers and students, include 100 dual school desks for Ilado Community Junior High School and Wahab Folawiyo Senior High School, alongside a refurbished and fully equipped Chemistry Laboratory at the Government Senior Secondary School, Ikoyi.

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Also donated were reading tables, chairs, and bookshelves for the library at Government Junior Secondary School, Ikoyi.

A celebration also took place at Falomo Junior High School and Ireti Senior Grammar School, both in Ikoyi, where the company donated 20 brand-new desktop computers to the ICT departments of the schools.

At the event at Government Junior College, Ikoyi, the Group Managing Director of Dangote Cement Plc, Arvind Pathak, explained that social investment is a key part of Dangote Cement’s operations.

He said the company is dedicated to giving back to society and supporting the sustainable development of local communities, especially in areas where it operates.

Pathak’s address was delivered by Wakeel Olayiwola, the Head of Social Performance at Dangote Cement Plc.

He said, “education holds a pivotal role in the development and empowerment of the youths in the country. As a cornerstone for societal advancement, it serves as a critical tool for personal growth, economic development, and national progress. An educated youth population not only fosters individual success but also contributes significantly to the nation’s overall wellbeing.

“At Dangote Cement, we believe that providing quality education to our youth is vital and should not be left solely as the government’s responsibility. Thus, we aim to partner with the government to enhance educational development in this regard.

“The projects we are handing over today are part of our 2024 Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programme for selected schools within the neighbourhood of Dangote Cement Plc’s Head Office in Ikoyi, Lagos. These projects were selected based on need assessments in collaboration with the schools.”

As a responsible corporate entity, Pathak noted that Dangote Cement’s commitment to societal wellbeing, with investments in four key areas: Education, Healthcare, Infrastructure, and Economic Empowerment programmes.

“This year, our plants in Ibese, Ogun State; Obajana, Kogi State; Gboko, Benue State; Okpella, Edo State; and our Pan-African operations have launched several social investment projects. These efforts contribute to the quality of life in our host communities and support sustainable national development,” he added.

Pathak thanked the Lagos State Government, the Tutor General/Permanent Secretary, and the school management teams for their collaboration in identifying the schools’ needs and ensuring the timely completion of the projects.

Dr. Idowu Olufunke Oyetola, Tutor General and Permanent Secretary of Education District 3, Lagos State Ministry of Education, who was represented by Bolaji Rotimi Ajayi, Director of School Administration, praised the long-standing partnership with Dangote Cement, noting that the schools selected for the donations were fortunate beneficiaries. “We hope for more collaborations that will positively impact education,” she added.

The principals of the recipient schools expressed their gratitude after the formal handover of the projects.

Odunlami Olubunmi, Principal of Ilado Community Junior High School, Ikoyi, thanked Dangote Cement for the new desks, stating that the donation would significantly improve the learning environment for the students, helping to prepare them for a brighter future.

Bamidele Ayotunde, Principal of the school with the refurbished laboratory, urged other businesses to follow Dangote Cement’s example in supporting local schools, pointing out the positive impact of the laboratory’s renovation on the school’s learning environment.

The Principal of Ireti Senior Grammar School, Ikoyi, whose school received the new desktop computers, described the donation as a positive development and expressed hope for more support in the future.

Pupils also shared their appreciation for the contributions. Abiola Jamaudeen, a lab prefect at Government Senior College, Ikoyi, promised that the laboratory would be used to its fullest potential and well-maintained.

Lawal Rumayzo Abdulsalam, a student at the school, said the new library equipment would foster better reading habits and create a more conducive environment for learning, ultimately preparing them for success. Some students even performed special songs to welcome the Dangote team to their schools.

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