Goldman Sachs has predicted that oil prices could surge to as much as $120 per barrel if attacks on ships in the Middle East intensify.

The development has further triggered a hike in petrol prices with a litre selling at N1310 per litre on Monday from 1,290 per litre on Friday.

Some marketers shared that price movements in some depots could have equally been responsible for the hike.

According to Petroleumprice.ng, an online petroleum products trading platform, Soroman and A.Y.M Shafa as of Monday were trading at N1295 per litre.

On crude prices, Goldman Sachs said “Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday.

READ ALSO: Dangote Refinery: NMDPRA Mulls Legal Battle Over Access Restriction

Oil prices have rallied in recent days amid the re-escalation of hostilities and jumped early on Monday in Asian trading to the highest level since mid-July, nearing the $100 per barrel threshold.

The situation escalated further this weekend after the U.S. said it had struck three Iranian oil tankers in response to the IRGC targeting two U.S. warships with ballistic missiles.

Following the attacks, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said that the era of “proportionate responses” is now over, and warned that future retaliations from Iran will be “faster, heavier and more painful.” Iran also said it would announce in the coming days a new “exclusion zone” which “will begin from the line of the U.S. naval blockade, extend toward the Strait of Hormuz, and from this side continue into the Persian Gulf.”

“Any ship that enters this area with the intention of passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is identified will be placed on our sanctions list,” Mohsen Rezaei, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Sunday.

Early on Monday, Brent Crude traded at over $97 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was above $92 a barrel.

Goldman sees “meaningful upside to crude oil prices,” Struyven told Bloomberg, but added that investors should bet on rising natural gas and refined product prices.

In gas and fuels, “the supply shocks are bigger than in the crude market,” the expert said.

“Strike our assets and you get struck,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Monday, ​in what appeared to be a response to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s warning that Tehran’s oil fleet was “defenseless”.

The United ⁠States and Iran traded strikes on oil tankers and warships over the weekend, marking a major escalation of the war between the two countries​that began when the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, maritime intelligence firm Marisks said.

“Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal ​economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping,” Marisks said.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority is weighing its next move to prevent it from losing regulatory authority over midstream and downstream companies located in free trade zones.

Last week, a Federal High Court in Lagos issued an interim injunction restraining the NMDPRA from shutting down or interfering with the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the Lekki Free Zone, Lagos.

Justice Akintayo Aluko made the order while ruling on a motion ex parte marked FHC/L/CS/1174/26, filed and argued by counsel to Dangote Petroleum Refinery Nigeria Limited, led by Olawale Akoni and Abimbola Akeredolu.

The refinery had approached the court following a letter dated August 24, 2026, in which the NMDPRA allegedly directed the suspension of the loading and truck-out of petroleum products from the refinery.

In his ruling, Justice Aluko said he had carefully considered the application, the affidavit evidence, exhibits and submissions of counsel, including the NMDPRA’s letter. The judge noted that the refinery’s case was that the NMDPRA lacked regulatory or oversight powers over operations within free zones, including the Dangote Industrial Free Zone.

Justice Aluko also referred to a letter dated March 2, 2026, issued by the Attorney-General of the Federation, which, according to the judge, stated that the NMDPRA was not entitled to exercise regulatory powers or oversight functions over operations within free zones.

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The judge further held that the refinery had satisfied the conditions required for the grant of an interim injunction. “Accordingly, I find merit in the application, and the same is hereby granted in terms of the reliefs sought,” Aluko ruled.

When contacted, the spokesman of the NMDPRA, George Ene-Ita, declined further comments on the matter, saying, “I can’t comment on a case before the court.”

While not denying the NMDPRA’s letter to shut the Dangote refinery, Ene-Ita refused to give details on why the regulator ordered the refinery to stop loading.

However, other senior officials within the NMDPRA disclosed that the regulator is weighing the next move as far as the case and the ruling are concerned. It was gathered that the agency’s legal team and its management “will decide the next line of action”.

In May, the NMDPRA declared that petroleum companies operating in free zones, export processing zones and other designated areas in Nigeria remain fully subject to the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and regulations issued under the law. The regulator stated this in an industry circular.

Free zones are designated areas created by the government to encourage investment and industrial activities through tax incentives, customs waivers and simplified business regulations. They include export processing zones, industrial parks and special economic zones where companies often enjoy exemptions from certain taxes and administrative procedures.

However, the NMDPRA stressed that such incentives do not exempt oil and gas operators from petroleum sector regulations under the PIA. “The operation of any midstream or downstream petroleum facility within a free zone, export processing zone or similar area does not exempt such facility and its operations from compliance with the provisions of the PIA and regulations made thereunder,” it stated.

In the circular addressed to managing directors and chief executives of oil and gas midstream companies, downstream firms, petrochemical and fertiliser companies, as well as import and export terminals, the authority reaffirmed its statutory powers over all midstream and downstream petroleum activities nationwide.

It explained that the regulatory mandate of the agency extends to all midstream and downstream petroleum activities and applies throughout Nigeria, including the continental shelf, territorial waters, exclusive economic zone, free zones, export processing zones, industrial zones and any other designated areas.

The agency said it was the statutory regulator responsible for the technical, commercial, operational and licensing regulation of all midstream and downstream petroleum operations in Nigeria.

It informed operators that all midstream and downstream petroleum operations, including refining, processing, storage, bulk transportation, pipelines, gas transportation networks, terminals, jetties, wholesale supply, importation, exportation, distribution and the sale of natural gas and petroleum liquids, are subject to its regulatory oversight.

With the current ruling, the NMDPRA is expected to defend its authority over free zones while the court decides whether or not it has such powers.

In its application, the Dangote refinery has asked the court to restrain the regulator, its officers, agents, representatives, privies or any person acting under its authority from enforcing or implementing the directive to shut the facility pending the hearing and determination of its motion on notice.

The company also sought an interim injunction restraining the NMDPRA and its agents from entering, sealing, shutting down, restricting access to, obstructing, suspending, disrupting, inspecting, supervising, sanctioning or otherwise interfering with its refinery, petrochemical, terminal, storage, blending, loading, truck-out and related facilities and operations within the Lekki Free Zone.

After granting the injunction, the court subsequently adjourned the case until September 9, 2026, for hearing of the motion on notice.

Courtesy – The Punch

Critical stakeholders have urged the Federal Government to intervene to address challenges confronting domestic refiners so as to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

According to the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) it has become urgent for the government at the highest level to convene a Presidential Refining Industry Roundtable (PRIR) involving regulators, crude producers, financiers, infrastructure investors and refinery operators to develop a national roadmap for the sector.

The CORAN, in a position paper, said domestic refiners were grappling with foreign exchange pressures, high borrowing costs, crude supply constraints, inadequate infrastructure and rising logistics costs.

The association said Nigeria’s experience contrasted sharply with that of the United States, where President Donald Trump recently met refinery and fuel-distribution executives despite the country’s high refinery utilisation, underscoring the importance of government engagement with strategic industries.

According to the CORAN, Nigeria, despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers, still faced difficulties supplying local refineries with crude under commercially sustainable arrangements.

It called for the full institutionalisation of the Federal Government’s Naira-for-Crude initiative, arguing that refineries selling most of their products in naira should not face unnecessary foreign exchange pressure in sourcing crude.

READ ALSO: CORAN Counsels FG to Curb Petroleum Imports

The association also demanded a domestic crude-pricing framework that considers transportation, crude quality, point of delivery and other transaction costs rather than relying solely on international benchmarks.

“Physical allocation alone is not enough. Crude must be delivered at commercially sustainable prices and under arrangements that properly consider transportation, quality, evacuation, financing and proximity to producing assets,” CORAN said.

The refinery owners also expressed concern over the continued influx of imported petroleum products, warning that excessive imports could undermine investments in local refining, increase foreign exchange demand and expose the country to external supply disruptions.

While acknowledging that imports might be required to cover temporary supply gaps, the CORAN said they should not remain the dominant structure of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.

The association identified access to long-term financing as another major obstacle and called for a Refinery Development and Expansion Financing Framework involving development finance institutions, commercial banks, pension funds, infrastructure funds and private investors.

It said the proposed framework should provide long-term funding, credit guarantees, refinancing windows and construction-risk support for new and existing refineries.

The CORAN also called for increased investment in pipelines, storage terminals, depots, rail-linked transport and marine evacuation facilities, noting that reliance on road transportation significantly increased costs and safety risks.

The association urged the Federal Government to treat refineries as strategic industrial infrastructure capable of supporting employment, engineering, fabrication, petrochemicals and other sectors.

“Nigeria cannot continue exporting crude, exporting jobs and importing petroleum products at significant economic cost,” the association said.

The CORAN said the proposed presidential roundtable should produce clear timelines for strengthening the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, institutionalising Naira-for-Crude, developing a domestic crude-pricing framework, reducing unnecessary product imports and expanding refinery financing and infrastructure.

It said Nigeria must move from an import-dependent petroleum economy towards a production-driven model, with domestic refineries playing a central role in meeting local demand and positioning the country as a refining hub for Africa.