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Dangote Refinery Ends Nigeria’s Fuel Import Dependence Era, Boosts GDP, FX Earnings — EIU
The operational ramp up of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is fundamentally reshaping Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), it has significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthened its external position.
This was detailed in its latest assessment on Nigeria’s fuel market and regulatory environment, in which the EIU stated that the refinery has already transformed a sector that was previously characterised by heavy reliance on imported fuel despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest crude oil producer.
The report noted that the refinery met nearly 80 percent of domestic petrol demand in April and produced enough volumes to satisfy local consumption requirements as operations approached full capacity.
The EIU described Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector before the refinery as “long dysfunctional”, noting that the country had remained almost entirely dependent on costly imported fuel while producing nearly 1.5 million barrels of crude oil daily.
According to the report, the emergence of the refinery has reduced import dependence, improved domestic fuel availability and strengthened Nigeria’s balance of payments position through lower import demand and rising exports of refined petroleum products.
“The gradual ramp up of the 650,000 barrel/day Dangote refinery since May 2023 has transformed Nigeria’s long dysfunctional downstream sector,” the report stated. “The country’s main refineries, all state owned, had been inoperative for years and Nigeria was almost entirely reliant on costly imported fuel.”
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The research and analysis division of The Economist Group, London added that the refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity and its planned expansion would further support Nigeria’s economic growth and foreign exchange earnings over the medium term.
“Meanwhile, the attainment of full capacity at, and an increase in exports from, the Dangote refinery will support real GDP growth and foreign exchange earnings in 2026 and 2027 and beyond, as a planned doubling of the plant’s output comes on stream around the end of the decade,” it added.
Industry analysts said the refinery is increasingly positioning Nigeria as an emerging refining and export hub, altering energy trade flows across Africa and reducing the vulnerability associated with fuel import dependence.
The EIU noted that the refinery’s expansion has coincided with major reforms in Nigeria’s downstream sector, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the introduction of market driven pricing mechanisms.
The report, however, said the transition from a state dominated fuel import structure to large-scale domestic refining has triggered resistance from interests linked to the old import regime.
The latest tensions emerged following the decision by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to relax restrictions on petrol imports despite the refinery’s growing capacity to meet domestic demand.
Dangote Industries subsequently initiated legal action, arguing that continued import approvals undermine domestic refining investments and conflict with the objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act, which seeks to encourage local refining capacity and reduce import dependence.
Analysts noted that the availability of large-scale domestic refining capacity has improved Nigeria’s energy security and reduced exposure to external supply shocks and foreign exchange volatility.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise also cautioned against unrestrained importation of petroleum products, warning that such a policy could weaken Nigeria’s industrialisation drive and discourage investments in domestic refining.
Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Muda Yusuf, said continued dependence on imported fuel had historically contributed to pressure on foreign reserves, exchange rate instability and fiscal leakages.
The refinery’s growing impact is also being reflected in Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic indicators. Earlier this month, S&P Global Ratings cited increased domestic refining capacity and rising hydrocarbon exports among the major factors supporting Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating upgrade – the first in 14 years.
Beyond Nigeria, analysts said the refinery is increasingly being viewed as a strategic industrial asset for Africa, where many countries remain heavily dependent on imported fuel despite rising demand for transportation, manufacturing, and power generation.
NEWS
‘Military Gets Huge Budgets, Yet Air Crashes Persist’ — Shehu Muhammad
Rights activist, public affairs analyst and Chief Executive Officer of The Dialogue, Shehu Muhammad, has questioned the continued occurrence of military aircraft crashes despite the huge budgetary allocations to the country’s defence and security sector.
Muhammad spoke while reacting to the recent Nigerian Navy aircraft crash in Irele Local Government Area of Ondo State during an interview on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief.
Describing the incident as “one incident too many,” he recalled that Nigeria had recorded several military aircraft crashes involving the Nigerian Air Force and Nigerian Army over the years.
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He said the recurring incidents had raised concerns among members of the public about the condition of military aircraft and the process through which military hardware is procured.
“People have begun to cast aspersions as to the honesty, sincerity, and openness in the purchase of military hardware, including airplanes,” Muhammad said.
According to him, the concerns are heightened by the substantial funds allocated to the military and other security agencies over the years.
“There are insinuations by the public that, after all, the military receive the highest amount of money from the budget year in, year out,” he said.
Muhammad also questioned the transparency of defence procurement, particularly the process of selecting contractors for the supply of military equipment.
He argued that the repeated crashes should prompt authorities to examine military aviation operations, aircraft procurement and the management of defence resources.
The latest crash occurred in Irele, Ondo State, with recovery efforts reportedly complicated by the difficult terrain around the crash site.
Muhammad said the latest incident should not be treated in isolation, but should lead to broader questions about military aviation safety and the management of resources allocated to the defence sector.
He called for greater transparency and accountability in the procurement and management of military hardware to restore public confidence.
NEWS
‘NYSC Has Outlived Its Usefulness, Should Be Scrapped’ — Shehu Muhammad
Rights activist and public affairs analyst, Shehu Mohammed, has called for the scrapping of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), saying the scheme has outlived its usefulness amid growing security concerns across the country.
Shehu made the call on Wednesday during an interview on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief, while reacting to the kidnapping of prospective corps members travelling to orientation camps in Akwa Ibom and Anambra states.
He described the incident as “one incident too many,” noting that kidnapping, maiming and the detention of victims in kidnappers’ camps had become frequent in several parts of the country.
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“I think it is just a case of one incident too many. There are more unreported cases of kidnapping and maiming and detention in kidnappers’ den, almost all over the country, especially in the northern part of the country: the Middle North West, North East, and North Central. It’s a daily, daily happening,” Sani said.
He said the security situation had made him question the continued relevance of the NYSC scheme, which was established to promote national unity.
“When Bukola was saying that she objects to the scrapping of NYSC, I tend to take a different view. My view is that the entire NYSC was meant to unite Nigeria, but if in uniting Nigeria you lose your daughter, you lose your son, you lose your uncle, you lose your sister, you lose your neighbour, then it’s not worth the trouble,” he said.
Shehu argued that corps members should instead be allowed to serve in their respective states, eliminating the need for young Nigerians to travel long distances to orientation camps.
“This NYSC issue should be scrapped, removed from the constitution, allow each and every corps member to serve in his own state, traveling with all the dangers, with all the costs,” he said.
He also highlighted the financial burden placed on families when corps members are posted far from their home states.
“If a child is going from Katsina to Anambra State to report to the camp, minimum that you give him is three hundred thousand naira for transfer cost, three hundred. How many parents have three hundred thousand naira to give their wards?” Sani asked.
He said the financial burden was only one aspect of the problem, with corps members also facing security risks and possible trauma during interstate travel.
“Minus all the dangers, the consequences, the uncertainties, the traumas involved. If your child has to go through a trauma, through uncertainty, through pain, through kidnapping, through raping, eventually through killing, why do you have to go for NYSC?” he said.
“As far as I’m concerned, the NYSC project has outlived its usefulness. It should be scrapped.”
Shehu also warned that kidnapping in Nigeria was taking a new dimension, with criminal groups increasingly targeting vulnerable groups.
“Corps members are vulnerable groups. Travelers for commercial purposes all over the country are vulnerable groups. Therefore they are now going for soft targets,” he said.
According to him, kidnappers also use abductions to blackmail victims’ families and government authorities into paying ransom.
“The next one is blackmailing either the parents or blackmailing government to collect money,” he said.
Sani alleged that ransom payments were subsequently used to finance criminal activities.
“So they can finance their arm purchase. They can finance their purchase of hard drugs to enable them operate without pity and compassion, and to send permanent fear into the community,” he said.
He added that the kidnappers were using their activities to create fear within communities, despite being relatively few in number.
NEWS
NCDMB, Zeconia Global Train 50 on Digital Oilfield Operations
The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), in collaboration with Zeconia Global Investment CO. Ltd, has successfully completed the Training on Digital Oilfield Operation & Data Analytics for 50 participants in Lagos State.
The 5-day intensive capacity-building program, which was held from September 28 to October 2, 2026 in Lagos, came to a successful close with participants equipped with cutting-edge digital skills for the oil and gas industry.
The training was designed to bridge the digital gap in the sector, exposing beneficiaries to practical knowledge on digital oilfield architecture, production optimization, real-time data monitoring, IoT applications, predictive analytics, and data-driven decision making in upstream operations.
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At the closing ceremony, the Managing Director of Zeconia Global Investment Co. Ltd, Olawore Oladipupo, conducted the official handover to participants, applauding their commitment, active participation and eagerness to learn throughout the duration of the training.
He charged them to leverage the knowledge gained to add value to the industry and position themselves for emerging opportunities in the digital energy space.
Participants expressed profound appreciation to NCDMB and Zeconia Global for the life-changing opportunity, describing the training as impactful, practical and timely for the evolving global oil and gas landscape.
The programme once again demonstrates NCDMB’s unwavering commitment to human capital development, local content growth and strategic partnerships aimed at empowering Nigerians with relevant skills for the future of work.





