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Dangote Refinery Ends Nigeria’s Fuel Import Dependence Era, Boosts GDP, FX Earnings — EIU

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The operational ramp up of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is fundamentally reshaping Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), it has significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthened its external position.

This was detailed in its latest assessment on Nigeria’s fuel market and regulatory environment, in which the EIU stated that the refinery has already transformed a sector that was previously characterised by heavy reliance on imported fuel despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest crude oil producer.

The report noted that the refinery met nearly 80 percent of domestic petrol demand in April and produced enough volumes to satisfy local consumption requirements as operations approached full capacity.

The EIU described Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector before the refinery as “long dysfunctional”, noting that the country had remained almost entirely dependent on costly imported fuel while producing nearly 1.5 million barrels of crude oil daily.

According to the report, the emergence of the refinery has reduced import dependence, improved domestic fuel availability and strengthened Nigeria’s balance of payments position through lower import demand and rising exports of refined petroleum products.

“The gradual ramp up of the 650,000 barrel/day Dangote refinery since May 2023 has transformed Nigeria’s long dysfunctional downstream sector,” the report stated. “The country’s main refineries, all state owned, had been inoperative for years and Nigeria was almost entirely reliant on costly imported fuel.”

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The research and analysis division of The Economist Group, London added that the refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity and its planned expansion would further support Nigeria’s economic growth and foreign exchange earnings over the medium term.

“Meanwhile, the attainment of full capacity at, and an increase in exports from, the Dangote refinery will support real GDP growth and foreign exchange earnings in 2026 and 2027 and beyond, as a planned doubling of the plant’s output comes on stream around the end of the decade,” it added.

Industry analysts said the refinery is increasingly positioning Nigeria as an emerging refining and export hub, altering energy trade flows across Africa and reducing the vulnerability associated with fuel import dependence.

The EIU noted that the refinery’s expansion has coincided with major reforms in Nigeria’s downstream sector, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the introduction of market driven pricing mechanisms.

The report, however, said the transition from a state dominated fuel import structure to large-scale domestic refining has triggered resistance from interests linked to the old import regime.

The latest tensions emerged following the decision by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to relax restrictions on petrol imports despite the refinery’s growing capacity to meet domestic demand.

Dangote Industries subsequently initiated legal action, arguing that continued import approvals undermine domestic refining investments and conflict with the objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act, which seeks to encourage local refining capacity and reduce import dependence.

Analysts noted that the availability of large-scale domestic refining capacity has improved Nigeria’s energy security and reduced exposure to external supply shocks and foreign exchange volatility.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise also cautioned against unrestrained importation of petroleum products, warning that such a policy could weaken Nigeria’s industrialisation drive and discourage investments in domestic refining.

Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Muda Yusuf, said continued dependence on imported fuel had historically contributed to pressure on foreign reserves, exchange rate instability and fiscal leakages.

The refinery’s growing impact is also being reflected in Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic indicators. Earlier this month, S&P Global Ratings cited increased domestic refining capacity and rising hydrocarbon exports among the major factors supporting Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating upgrade – the first in 14 years.

Beyond Nigeria, analysts said the refinery is increasingly being viewed as a strategic industrial asset for Africa, where many countries remain heavily dependent on imported fuel despite rising demand for transportation, manufacturing, and power generation.

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IPOB Claims Members Died in Custody, Announces Major Leadership Overhaul

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Kanu’s Trial: IPOB Reactivates Sit-at-Home Order

The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has alleged that some of its members died while in detention, as the group announced a major restructuring of its leadership and pledged to prioritise the welfare and release of detained members.

The development was disclosed in a statement issued on Wednesday from Langerfeld, Germany, and signed in the name of IPOB leader, Nnamdi Kanu.

The statement, made available through the group’s spokesperson, Emma Powerful, also confirmed the dissolution of the third administration of IPOB’s Directorate of State (DOS) and the inauguration of a new leadership team.

SEE MORE: “We Close Our Case”— FG Ends Terrorism Trial Against IPOB’s Kanu

According to the group, the decision followed a review of the outgoing administration’s performance, particularly its handling of issues concerning members being held in detention facilities across Nigeria.

IPOB expressed concern over what it described as the prolonged detention of hundreds of its members, especially those allegedly being held without trial at Wawa Military Barracks in Niger State.

“The most grievous failure of the outgoing administration was its inability to prioritise the welfare and liberation of hundreds of Biafrans detained across various detention facilities, particularly those held for years without trial at Wawa Military Barracks in Niger State,” the statement read.

The group further alleged that many detainees had suffered severe hardship, while some reportedly died in custody.

“No movement that claims to stand for justice can neglect those who paid the highest price for their commitment. The abandonment of detained Biafrans represents a profound dereliction of the duty of care owed to every member of the IPOB family,” the statement added.

IPOB also accused the dissolved leadership of focusing on internal disputes and factional disagreements rather than prioritising diplomacy, legal advocacy, prisoner welfare and strategic planning.

As part of the restructuring, US-based Chris Nwaọgụ was named head of the fourth administration of the Directorate of State and is expected to oversee the administration and day-to-day affairs of the movement under Kanu’s authority.

Other appointments announced by the group include Solomon Egbo as Deputy Head, Nnennaya Anya as Head of Finance and Budget Planning, Chigozie Okekenta as Coordinator of Coordinators, Chukwudi Nwogwugwu as Head of Medical and Welfare Planning, and Ikechukwu Onuoha as Head of Media.

The organisation also unveiled an Elders Advisory Council, which it said would provide strategic guidance and institutional support to both Kanu and the newly appointed leadership team.

In addition, IPOB disclosed that officers previously appointed by Kanu had been restored to their positions pending administrative review, while previous suspensions and expulsions had been set aside.

The group urged its members and supporters around the world to remain disciplined and cooperate with the new administration as it seeks to reposition the movement and strengthen internal unity.

Founded in 2012 by Nnamdi Kanu, IPOB advocates for the restoration of an independent Biafra state in Nigeria’s South-East region.

While the group insists its agitation is peaceful and based on self-determination, the Federal Government has repeatedly accused it of involvement in violent activities and secured a court order proscribing it as a terrorist organisation in 2017.

IPOB continues to reject the allegations and challenge the proscription.

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Midnight Horror in Kaduna: Gunmen Kill Nine, Injure 11 in Fresh Community Attack

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At least nine persons have been killed and 11 others injured following a deadly attack on Angwan Magaji community in Kamaru Ward of Kauru Local Government Area of Kaduna State.

The attack, which occurred around 1:00 a.m. on Wednesday, has heightened concerns over the worsening security situation in communities located along the Kaduna–Plateau border.

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According to the National Publicity Secretary of the Irigwe Youth Movement, Joseph Chudu Yonkpa, heavily armed attackers invaded the community in the early hours of the morning and opened fire on residents, leaving several casualties in their wake.

Yonkpa explained that most residents of Angwan Magaji are members of the Irigwe ethnic group with ancestral roots in Bassa Local Government Area of Plateau State.

The victims of the attack were identified as Jerry Doctor, 51; Danlami Magani, 49; Sunday Chibi, 53; Rita Abdullahi, 45; Sunday Elkan, 5; Esther Kefas, 5; Happy Friday, 6; Moses Daddy, 4; and Daddy Ibrahim, 28.

Eleven other residents sustained varying degrees of injuries and are currently receiving medical treatment.

Confirming the incident, the National Secretary of the Irigwe Development Association, Danjuma Dickson Auta, condemned the killings and described the attack as unfortunate and deeply troubling.

Auta called on security agencies to immediately investigate the incident and ensure that those responsible are brought to justice.

He also expressed concern over the recurring attacks on communities in the area, urging authorities to strengthen security measures to safeguard lives and property.

The community leader appealed to governments at all levels to take urgent action to prevent further bloodshed and restore confidence among residents, noting that the latest attack has plunged the community into mourning and renewed calls for decisive intervention to end the cycle of violence along the Kaduna–Plateau axis.

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Army Rescues Five Kidnap Victims as Terrorists Flee Kogi Forest Hideouts

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Five kidnapped victims have regained their freedom following a successful military operation by troops of the 12 Brigade, Nigerian Army, in Kogi State.

The rescue operation was carried out on Wednesday as part of ongoing counter-terrorism efforts under the 2 Division Nigerian Army, which has intensified both ground and air offensives against terrorist camps hidden within forested areas of the state.

According to a statement issued by the Acting Assistant Director of Army Public Relations, 12 Brigade, Lieutenant Hassan Abdullahi, the victims were abandoned by their captors as the terrorists fled sustained military pressure.

ALSO READ: Horror in Kogi: Gunmen Abduct 24 Pupils in Orphanage Raid, 15 Rescued

Abdullahi explained that the operation followed a recent air interdiction mission targeting a known terrorist hideout within the forest.

Troops from the Forward Operating Base Oshokoshoko were subsequently deployed on a blocking mission along the Oshokoshoko–Adankolo route in the Adankolo Forest.

“Acting on operational directives and following the recent air interdiction mission conducted against a known terrorist hideout within the forest, troops deployed from Forward Operating Base Oshokoshoko on a blocking mission along Oshokoshoko–Adankolo route within Adankolo Forest.

“During the operation, vigilant troops intercepted five kidnapped victims who had been abandoned by the terrorists while fleeing from the intense military pressure mounted on their camps,” the statement read.

Preliminary investigations revealed that the victims regained their freedom after the terrorists dispersed in the wake of ongoing military offensives targeting their hideouts.

The rescued individuals were immediately evacuated to a secure location before being transferred to a military medical facility, where they received medical care and stabilization.

The Army further disclosed that the victims were debriefed to gather intelligence that could support ongoing operations aimed at tracking down and neutralizing the remaining terrorists operating within the area.

Military authorities said efforts are underway to reunite the victims with their families after completing the necessary medical and administrative procedures.

Meanwhile, the Commander of the 12 Brigade, Brigadier General Kasim Sidi, commended the troops for their vigilance, resilience, and professionalism during the operation.

He also urged residents of Kogi State to continue supporting security agencies by providing credible intelligence, stressing that public cooperation remains crucial in the fight against terrorism and other criminal activities in the region.

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