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Europe, Mediterranean Crises Shouldn’t Affect Africa’s Petroleum Price Benchmark – FG
The Federal Government, through the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, has said crises in Western Europe and the Mediterranean should not automatically determine petroleum product prices in Nigeria and other African countries, arguing that West Africa needs a regional benchmark that reflects its own market realities.
It said West Africa could no longer afford a situation where disruptions in Western Europe or the Mediterranean automatically influence the prices of petroleum products in African markets, even when the factors behind those disruptions have little or nothing to do with the region.
The Authority Chief Executive, Rabiu Umar, said this on Tuesday at the second West Africa Refined Fuel Market Conference in Abuja, where regulators, refiners, traders, financiers and other industry stakeholders renewed efforts to establish a transparent regional pricing system for refined petroleum products.
The conference is jointly hosted by the Authority, S&P Global Commodity Insights and West Africa Regulator Forum, with the theme: “Funding West Africa Infrastructure & Distribution to Create a Transparent Market for Regional Price Benchmarks.”
The conference is aimed at moving the region from discussions about price discovery to the actual development of a functioning petroleum trading and pricing hub.
Umar said the continued use of external price references meant that petroleum consumers in Nigeria and other West African countries could be affected by disruptions that occurred thousands of kilometres away and were unrelated to the fundamentals of their own markets.
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He said the situation was no longer sustainable, particularly as West Africa’s refining landscape was changing rapidly and Nigeria was emerging as a major supplier of refined petroleum products to the region.
The NMDPRA boss, who also doubles as the WARF Chairman, said, “If we look at the refining capacity on the continent and how it has been increasing, it simply doesn’t make sense that if there is a problem in Western Europe or in the Mediterranean, it is going to affect our pricing in Africa.
“There may be issues which have absolutely nothing to do with what is going on here. And prices should be determined on the basis of geopolitical issues, demand and supply, and complexities within the market. So we feel this is a great opportunity for Africa, and West Africa in particular, to really have something that is specific to us. If we have a problem, it is reflected in the pricing. If we don’t have a problem, then we are to be shielded to an extent, I would say, from what is going on in other locations.”
The call comes against the backdrop of renewed volatility in international energy markets following the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. The latest tensions around the strait have pushed Brent crude sharply higher, with the benchmark reaching above $90 per barrel at points in recent days before easing as markets weighed diplomatic efforts between Iran and Oman.
That distinction, he argued, is at the heart of the campaign for a West African reference market.
He said, “If we look at the refining capacity on the continent and how it has been increasing, it simply doesn’t make sense that if there is a problem in Western Europe or in the Mediterranean, it is going to affect our pricing in Africa. There may be issues which have absolutely nothing to do with what is going on here in the continent. But prices are determined on the basis of geopolitical issues, demand and supply, and complexities within the market. So we feel this is a great opportunity for Africa, and West Africa in particular, to really have something that is specific to us.
“If we have a problem, it is reflected in the pricing. If we don’t have a problem, then we are shielded to an extent, I would say, from what is going on in other locations.”
He explained that the roadmap required reliable financing, refinery capacity, stronger logistics and storage networks, interconnected ports, roads, rail and pipelines, harmonised product regulations and standards, transparent and comparable market data, stronger cross-border cooperation and the mobilisation of regional and international capital.
“A reference price is not by itself a trading hub. A conference is not a market. Regulatory cooperation, important as it is, cannot substitute for physical infrastructure, commercial liquidity, market information, and operational excellence on which a credible trading hub must stand. Africa possesses resources. Africa possesses demand. Africa possesses refining capacity, and that is also expanding. What we must now build is the infrastructure that efficiently connects all three”, he added.
Umar also urged West African countries to stop duplicating infrastructure and instead develop assets based on their comparative advantages.
He said, “This is also why we must think regionally. Not every country needs to replicate every asset that we have. So for example, Nigeria today stands as one of the most tanked countries. If you look at the number of tanks we have versus the consumption that we have, there is absolutely no point.
“If you look at Europe, for example, our region is a trading hub for oil and gas, for all the refined products. Why? The other countries could also have invested in similar infrastructure, which would have led to duplication. The most important thing is what each country’s specific advantage is relative to the region, so that way everybody is doing what they are really, really good at. And this is why we must think regionally. We have to think regionally.”
He also identified differences in petroleum product specifications across countries as another major obstacle to cross-border trade. According to him, varying specifications make it difficult to move products seamlessly from one West African market to another and undermine the development of a single regional market.
“We also have the second issue of what is the quality of products. What is the specification of products from one country to another? We cannot have from here to Nigeria, to Ghana, to the United Republic, even our right-next-door neighbours having different products and specifications. What that does is that it makes trading across the border very, very difficult.”
Umar said regional integration would therefore help optimise existing infrastructure, reduce duplication and direct scarce capital towards projects capable of delivering the greatest regional impact.
“Capital will go where projects are bankable. Risks are understood, regulation is predictable, and returns can be sustained. Our responsibility as governments, regulators, and players is therefore to create the conditions that allow capital to move confidently. For investors, predictability matters. For operators, efficiency matters. For consumers, affordability matters, and reliability. For regulators, safety, integrity, competition, and compliance matter. A sustainable market must accommodate all four”, he stated.
The NMDPRA boss further identified reliable market data as a critical requirement for credible regional price discovery.
He said a benchmark could not be trusted if it was based on an opaque market with limited transactions and unreliable information on supply, demand, inventories and product availability.
“A credible benchmark cannot emerge from an opaque market. Price discovery requires sufficient transactions, willing participants, reliable reporting, and confidence that market information indeed reflects actual commercial activity.
“We must therefore develop a culture in which reliable information on supply, demand, inventories, infrastructure, availability, and legitimate transactions can support better commercial decisions and effective regulation.”
He said the West Africa Regulators Forum had a major role to play in creating an environment where different national markets could operate with sufficient regulatory compatibility to facilitate cross-border trade.
“We do not need every country to have identical laws. We need sufficient compatibility to allow trade to occur safely, transparently, and efficiently. And this is the difference, really, between regulatory uniformity and regulatory integration.”
Umar said the regional roadmap beyond 2026 would focus on five key areas, including improving physical market mobility, financing strategic infrastructure, optimising product standards and regulations, strengthening market data and transparency, and building a complete trading ecosystem.
He said a mature regional market would require refiners, traders, terminal operators, ship owners, marketers, banks, insurers, commodity exchanges, data providers and regulators to operate within an environment of commercial trust.
“And when these elements come together, the benchmarks will learn to be imposed. The market itself will produce the benchmark,” he said.
He said the ultimate objective was to transform West Africa from a region that largely consumes petroleum products priced elsewhere into an increasingly influential centre of price discovery, trading, investment and value creation.
“In 2025, we developed the roadmap. In 2026, we must finance and execute it. In the years ahead, our major success must be a West African market in which products move more efficiently, supply is more secure, investors have greater confidence, regional trade expands, and prices increasingly reflect the fundamentals of our own markets.”
Courtesy – The Punch
The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has released its Côte d’Ivoire Country Brief, providing an in-depth examination of the West African nation’s macroeconomic outlook, regional and international trade dynamics, financial sector development and debt sustainability profile.
The brief highlights Côte d’Ivoire as one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Home to 33.5 million people and with a nominal GDP forecast at USD116.9 billion in 2027, the country has sustained average real GDP growth of around 6.5% per year between 2021 and 2024, accelerating to an estimated 6.6% in 2025. Growth is forecast to moderate to 5.8% in 2026 before rebounding to 6.2% in 2027, supported by rising crude production, continued infrastructure investment and resilient domestic demand.
The brief also points to a notably improved near-term macroeconomic environment. Inflation fell sharply to just 0.1% in 2025, supported by easing commodity price pressures and government measures to stabilise fuel and food prices, with the CFA franc’s euro peg providing a durable exchange rate anchor. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3% of GDP in 2025, meeting the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) ceiling, backed by stronger revenue collection and ongoing reforms to tax administration and VAT digitalisation.
On trade, this edition charts a significant expansion. Total trade surged from USD26 billion in 2018 to USD57 billion in 2025, anchored by Côte d’Ivoire’s status as the world’s largest cocoa producer, commanding around 40% of global supply, alongside growing exports of cashew nuts, rubber, gold and hydrocarbons.
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The February 2026 Calao South gas condensate discovery and rising output from the Baleine field signaled a broadening export base over the medium term. Strategically positioned on the Gulf of Guinea, with the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro acting as principal gateways into Francophone West Africa, Côte d’Ivoire is deeply embedded in regional trade networks, with African markets accounting for around 22% of its goods trade in 2025.
The brief further notes Côte d’Ivoire’s financial sector strength. The country holds the largest banking sector in UEMOA, accounting for more than a third of regional banking assets. Regulatory reforms, including the adoption of Basel II and Basel III standards, have strengthened supervision and resilience, while the launch of the Central Bank of West African States’ (BCEAO) interoperable instant payment platform in September 2025 is broadening access to digital financial services across the economy.
As this edition notes, Côte d’Ivoire “has moved from a period of rapid debt accumulation and elevated debt service pressure towards a more stable debt profile, supported by fiscal consolidation, active debt management and continued multilateral engagement.” This is a trajectory that positions the country to fully capitalise on the ambitious targets of its 2026-2030 National Development Plan.
Afreximbank’s Group Chief Economist & Managing Director Research commented: “Côte d’Ivoire is consolidating its position as a leading West African growth and trade hub. Its expanding energy sector, world-class agricultural base, regional port infrastructure and increasingly sophisticated financial system offer a strong foundation to attract investment, scale value addition and deepen trade links across Africa.”
Oando Plc has increased its average daily production by 14 per cent to 42,985 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the first nine months of 2026.
This was driven by higher output across its crude oil, natural gas and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) assets.
The indigenous energy company, in its unaudited nine-month results ended September 30, 2026, said the production growth from 37,614 boepd recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 reflected improved operational efficiency, higher facility uptime and increased investment in its upstream portfolio.
Crude oil production rose 12 per cent to 12,193 barrels per day, while gas output increased 13 per cent to 28,689 boepd. NGL production recorded the strongest growth, rising 53 per cent to 2,103 barrels per day.
The company said improved operational performance was supported by a 96.1 per cent facility uptime, compared with 85 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025, while production operating costs declined 22 per cent to $15.39 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe).
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Commenting on the performance, Group Chief Executive, Wale Tinubu, said improved operational efficiency, increased investment and stronger asset reliability under the company’s operatorship were translating into higher production across its expanded upstream portfolio.
According to him, the company is recording improved reliability, lower unit costs and higher production as it intensifies development activities across its operated assets.
The production increase also translated into higher sales volumes, with crude oil liftings rising 43 per cent to 3.97 million barrels, while natural gas sales increased five per cent to 34.01 billion standard cubic feet (Bscf).
NGL sales surged 90 per cent to 570,000 barrels, pushing total exploration and production sales volumes up 21 per cent to 10.21 million barrels of oil equivalent.
To sustain the production momentum, Oando invested N110.7 billion in capital expenditure during the period, with a significant portion directed towards drilling activities across Oil Mining Leases (OMLs) 60–63.
Its seven-well drilling programme for 2026 is progressing across its operated assets. The company said Idu 6ST and Idu 15 had been completed and brought on stream, while workovers at Samabri 4T and Samabri 7T had also been completed.
Drilling is ongoing at Idu T and Samabri A50, with the final well, Ogbainbiri, scheduled to commence in December.
Upon completion, the campaign is expected to deliver an additional 16,000 to 20,000 boepd in gross production, helping to offset natural field decline and sustain output growth.
The programme is also central to Oando’s medium-term ambition of raising production to approximately 100,000 boepd within the next four to five years. The company has consequently narrowed its full-year 2026 production guidance to between 40,000 and 45,000 boepd, while projecting capital expenditure of $90 million to $100 million, largely focused on high-impact, short-cycle upstream activities.
Beyond production growth, Oando said its operating performance improved significantly, with gross profit rising 483 per cent to N174.5 billion from N29.8 billion, while operating profit stood at N159.7 billion against an operating loss of N109.7 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.
Revenue increased nine per cent to N2.78 trillion, supported by higher crude oil output, increased gas and NGL sales and improved realised prices.
Cash generated from operations reached N285 billion, while total borrowings declined to N2.16 trillion, representing a 22 per cent reduction from the peak recorded at the end of 2024.
Tinubu said the company would prioritise completion of its drilling programme, sustaining operational reliability and strengthening its balance sheet through an impending equity raise.
He added that the initiatives would reduce leverage, improve the company’s capacity to finance further growth and support future shareholder distributions.
Oando said it remained focused on unlocking the potential of its upstream assets through sustained investment, operational efficiency and increased production.
With a view to boosting the economy through job creation and technology transfer, the Nigerian government is considering direct government-to-government oil and gas partnerships with her Indonesian counterpart.
The President of the Nigerian-Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (NICCI), Ishmael Balogun, made the disclosure on Saturday in Lagos adding that the initiative could unlock billions of dollars in investment.
After the Indonesian 41st Trade Expo, which attracted hundreds of Nigerian delegates, Balogun pointed out that it would also deepen bilateral trade and investment.
He said that Indonesia currently buys about $3bn worth of Nigerian crude oil annually, adding that shifting from third-party transactions to direct government-to-government arrangements could unlock investment opportunities in oil exploration and other sectors.
“Indonesia has been buying crude from Nigeria, but they are buying it from a third-party kind of relationship. But this time around, we’re looking at a relationship where they can do a G2G, which opens up a lot of opportunities in exploration,” he said.
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According to Balogun, direct investment in exploration would generate wider economic benefits for Nigeria beyond the revenue derived from conventional trade.
“If you have an idea of the amount of money that is invested to explore for oil, that means jobs will be created for the common man in Nigeria. There will be knowledge transfer; there will be income that will be earned,” he added.
He described the proposed partnership as a mutually beneficial arrangement capable of attracting Foreign Direct Investment and strengthening economic relations between the two countries.
“Trading is good. Trading is what trading is. You buy, you go. But when it comes to exploration, life changes. And the level of investment we’re talking about is in billions of dollars that affect literally every single body in Nigeria that’s involved,” Balogun said.
He disclosed that more than 25 Indonesian government representatives had visited Nigeria less than a month before the interview to explore opportunities for closer cooperation in the energy sector.
The delegation included representatives of Indonesian state-owned energy company Pertamina, its renewable energy and exploration divisions, as well as the country’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Balogun said the delegation met with Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and officials of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
He expressed optimism that the engagements would translate into concrete investment agreements and stronger cooperation in the energy industry, adding that both countries had recorded significant growth in bilateral trade over the years, with the value increasing from $2bn in 2020 to $2.7bn in 2021, $2.9bn in 2022 and $4.5bn in 2023.
He said Nigeria had maintained its position as Indonesia’s leading trading partner in Africa since overtaking South Africa in 2020.
Balogun said the chamber also facilitated transactions among its members, valued at more than N1bn annually.
According to him, Nigerian businesses import pharmaceutical products, palm oil, electronics and fast-moving consumer goods from Indonesia, while Indonesian companies source agricultural commodities from Nigeria.
Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of Prime Minister Logistics, Giorgio Enrico Del Celo, said international trade exhibitions provided opportunities for Nigerian businesses to establish connections with potential partners and expand into new markets.
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