By Adeyemi Ilori
I have followed Nigeria’s gas story for the better part of two decades. I have sat through presentations that promised the world and delivered little. I have seen feasibility studies gather dust while flares continued to burn across the Niger Delta.

So, when I say that something feels different this time, I want you to understand the weight of that admission.

For years, the conventional wisdom among energy analysts was that NNPC was a black box – opaque, slow, and better at consuming budgets than delivering pipelines. But the evidence accumulating over the past eighteen months, particularly under the current Ojulari leadership at NNPC, suggests that the corporation is finally translating its gas into tangible infrastructure. The AKK pipeline, the OB3 interconnector, and the relaunched Gas Master Plan 2026 are not just slide-deck fantasies. They are, against considerable odds, becoming physical realities.

Let me be clear: this is not an uncritical endorsement. There are still legitimate questions about cost overruns, contracting transparency, and the long-term commercial viability of some projects. But the direction of travel is unmistakable. Nigeria is moving from a flare-heavy crude economy to a gas-industrialised powerhouse. And NNPC, for all its historical baggage, is the engine of that transition.

Any credible analysis of NNPC’s gas ambitions must start with the Nigeria LNG story. Not because it is new, but because it remains the single most successful energy partnership in sub-Saharan Africa. The experiment began in 1995 with a final investment decision. Four years later, the first cargo left Bonny Island for France. That is a turnaround time that would impress any international project manager.

As the majority shareholder with 49 per cent equity, NNPC’s role, among others, was to secure gas supply through its joint venture partners, most of whom were also shareholders. The structure was complex, but it worked. NLNG has since generated over $114bn in revenue for Nigeria and dramatically reduced gas flaring. Train 7, approved in 2019, will increase capacity by another third.

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But here is the critical observation that many inside Nigeria miss: NLNG succeeded partly because it was insulated from day-to-day political interference. It had a dedicated special-purpose vehicle, world-class partners (Shell, Total, Eni), and a clear export mandate. The question has always been whether NNPC could replicate that discipline for domestic gas infrastructure, where profit margins are thinner and political pressures are heavier. That question is now being answered.

Let me give credit where it is due. The Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System, commissioned in the same year as NLNG’s incorporation, does not get the attention it deserves. It moves gas from the Niger Delta to the industrial corridors of Lagos, Ogun and Oyo. Most of the power plants in that zone run on ELPS gas. If you have ever wondered why Lagos State’s economy dwarfs that of other Nigerian states, a reliable gas supply is a significant part of the answer.

But a critical observer would also note that ELPS is now decades old and operating below optimal capacity due to maintenance backlogs and third-party vandalism. The lesson is that building pipelines is only half the battle. Operating and protecting them is the long game. NNPC has made progress on security architecture – surveillance contracts, community engagement – but the threat landscape remains challenging. Rather than cower, NNPC’s scope has grown by leaps and bounds.

The Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline is the most ambitious inland gas project in Africa. Flagged off in 2020 under President Buhari, it spans 614 kilometres and costs roughly $2.8bn. When fully operational, it will transport 2.2 billion scf per day, support three new independent power plants in Abuja, Kaduna and Kano, and serve as the first leg of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline toward Europe.

Now, for the critical part: I have watched enough infrastructure projects in emerging markets to know that ribbon-cutting ceremonies are cheap. What matters is crossing the River Niger, physically and metaphorically. True to type, in July 2025, the Ojulari administration celebrated exactly that engineering feat. The project team managed to lay pipe across one of Africa’s most challenging waterways. That is not a small feat.

Since then, momentum has increased. First gas is expected to reach Abuja in a matter of months. If that happens on schedule, it will be a watershed moment. But I would caution that the AKK has already faced delays and cost escalations. The original completion timeline was optimistic. The current management seems to have learned from that – they are now under-promising and over-delivering, which is refreshing.

The real test will be whether the industrial revival in Kano and Kaduna follows the pipeline. Textile mills and manufacturing hubs will not spring back to life automatically. They need complementary policies – tariff reform, export incentives, and reliable electricity distribution. NNPC can bring gas to the gate. It cannot force factory owners to turn on their machines. Yet, NNPC seems undeterred.

If there is a case study in Nigerian project perseverance, it will be the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipeline. Construction began in 2013. It was not meant to take this long to complete. I have written reports predicting its completion every two years since 2016. I was wrong every time, but the horizon is promising now.

The terrain was unforgiving. Swamps, rivers, community disputes, and funding gaps.

But NNPC, under the current leadership, finally deployed specialised micro-tunnelling equipment to breach the last major obstacle. As of February 2026, the OB3 is flowing approximately 300 million scf per day. That is real gas, moving from the stranded Eastern fields to the industrial West.

I want to highlight something that warms an analyst’s heart: the project is being handled by a local contractor, Oilserv. That is a testament to deepening local content. But it also raises a legitimate question about oversight. Local contractors bring lower costs and faster mobilisation, but they also require rigorous quality assurance. So far, Oilserv appears to have delivered. I would like to see independent audits published – transparency breeds confidence. And if the thoughtfulness in aggregating gas supply and delivery is any indication, the omens are very encouraging.

The crown jewel, in my view, is the NNPC Gas Master Plan 2026, relaunched with additional partners under the Ojulari management. That is not another glossy brochure; it is a coherent framework connecting AKK, OB3, ELPS, and future projects into a single national grid. Think of it as the operating system for Nigeria’s gas economy.

Previous master plans failed because they were aspirational but not sequenced. This one prioritises: it focuses on power generation first (the largest demand centre), then industrial feedstock (fertiliser, methanol, petrochemicals), then compressed natural gas for transportation and liquefied petroleum gas for cooking. That is logical.

But here is my main reservation: the master plan relies heavily on continued international partnership and financing. The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline to Europe is a multi-billion-dollar project that requires alignment with Algeria and Niger, both of whom have their own priorities. And European gas demand, post-2022, is less predictable than it once was, although the recent Middle East crisis appears to herald a silver lining for Africa-leaning investments. Despite that, Nigeria should not bet the house on exports only. Domestic industrialisation is the safer, more transformative bet.

So where does that leave an analyst like yours truly? I am overwhelmingly supportive of the direction, but I am not naive about the distance still to travel.

The positives: AKK is crossing rivers. OB3 is flowing. The Master Plan is coherent. NLNG’s success proves the model. ELPS shows what is possible. Ojulari’s first year has delivered more on-the-ground progress than recent years. Gas flaring is declining. Local content is deepening.

The critiques: Costs need to be more transparent. Project timelines have historically been fiction. Security of pipelines is an ongoing vulnerability. And gas alone cannot fix Nigeria’s broken electricity distribution network – that requires state-level reforms and private sector participation that lie outside NNPC’s mandate.

Let me end where I began. I have watched Nigeria’s energy sector for a long time. I have seen grand plans evaporate. The current moment feels different. Not because the challenges have disappeared: they haven’t. But because the leadership is finally treating gas infrastructure as a war, not a workshop. Pipelines are being laid. Rivers are being crossed. Molecules are moving.

AKK is coming. And for about the first time in years, I believe it.

Ilori is an energy analyst

In today’s high-stakes corporate and public sector leadership, performance is no longer judged by promises but by proof. Results must be tracked, decisions interrogated, and progress clearly demonstrated.

One year after Bayo Ojulari assumed office as Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, the moment calls for a clear-eyed assessment of his leadership, what has changed, what has worked and what lies ahead.

Ojulari did not arrive at a moment of calm. His appointment on April 2, 2025, came against the backdrop of mounting public skepticism and internal contradictions. The state of Nigeria’s refineries, particularly those in Port Harcourt and Warri, had become a lightning rod for debate.

Officially, they had been recommissioned after years of costly rehabilitation. Unofficially, many doubted whether those facilities were genuinely functional.

The gap between declaration and reality had become too wide to ignore, feeding a broader crisis of credibility around the national oil company. It was into this uncertainty that Ojulari stepped, confronted with a choice that often defines leadership: preserve appearances or pursue the truth.

He chose the latter, and in doing so, reset the tone of governance at NNPC. Rather than defend inherited claims, he immersed himself in the mechanics of the system, reviewing technical reports, engaging operational teams, and interrogating data. What followed was a decision as simple as it was profound: shut down the refineries. It was not the kind of move that courts applause in the short term. It disrupted narratives, unsettled expectations, and exposed uncomfortable realities. But it also sent a clear message that the era of managed optics was over. If the refineries were to work, they would work properly; if they were not, they would not be dressed up to appear otherwise. In that moment, Ojulari signaled that under his watch, transparency would not be a slogan but a practice.

That signal quickly found expression in institutional behaviour. One of his earliest moves was to restore the publication of NNPC’s monthly financial and operations reports, a transparency mechanism that had fallen into inconsistency. With their return came a renewed ability for stakeholders to track the company’s performance, production volumes, revenues, operational efficiencies, without relying on speculation. The culture of disclosure deepened further in November 2025, when NNPC Limited held its first-ever earnings call following the release of its audited 2024 financial statements. The announcement of a N5.4 trillion profit after tax captured headlines, but beyond the numbers lay a more consequential shift: the company was beginning to speak the language of accountability expected of global energy players.

Still, leadership is not measured by transparency alone. It must be weighed against clearly defined objectives, and in Ojulari’s case, those objectives were set by Bola Ahmed Tinubu with unmistakable clarity. The mandate was ambitious, raise crude oil production to two million barrels per day by 2027, scale gas output to eight billion cubic feet per day within the same timeframe, expand refining capacity, and attract tens of billions of dollars in fresh investment. It was a tall order by any standard, particularly in a sector long burdened by structural inefficiencies and external pressures.

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One year on, the evidence suggests that while the journey is far from complete, the direction has shifted. In upstream operations, Ojulari has overseen a notable increase in production through NNPC Exploration & Production Ltd. Output climbed from a daily average of 203,000 barrels in 2023 to 312,000 barrels by December 2025, with peaks reaching 355,000 barrels, the highest level recorded in decades. National production has also edged upward, moving from roughly 1.5 million barrels per day to about 1.62 million. To the uninitiated, the increment may appear modest, but within the context of Nigeria’s oil sector, where theft, vandalism, and operational disruptions have long suppressed output, it represents meaningful progress. Each additional barrel reflects not just production capacity but improved system integrity.

If oil production tells a story of recovery, gas tells one of momentum. Developments within the NNPC/Renaissance joint venture have positioned gas as a central pillar of growth, with output already hitting 2.2 billion cubic feet per day. The optimism surrounding this trajectory is not speculative. As Tony Attah of Renaissance Africa Energy Company noted, the venture has surpassed its immediate targets and is already recalibrating towards higher benchmarks. This growth is being reinforced by critical infrastructure projects.

The River Niger crossing of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline has brought long-awaited clarity to a project that had lingered in uncertainty, while the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben pipeline is nearing completion. Together, they represent more than engineering milestones, they are the arteries through which Nigeria’s gas ambitions can flow into industrial reality.

Yet, it is in refining that Ojulari’s leadership has been most paradoxical. On paper, little progress has been made toward expanding capacity. In practice, however, his decision to shut down the refineries may prove to be one of the most consequential moves of his tenure. By refusing to perpetuate underperformance, he has created space for a more credible and sustainable approach to refining. It is a strategy that sacrifices immediacy for integrity, choosing to rebuild rather than patch.

Investment, meanwhile, has emerged as a strong pillar of his first year. The groundwork laid for the Bonga Southwest Aparo deepwater project stands out as a defining achievement. By securing presidential approval for fiscal incentives, Ojulari has effectively unlocked the pathway for a potential $20 billion investment. In a global energy landscape where capital is increasingly selective, such positioning matters. It signals to investors that Nigeria is willing to align policy with opportunity, reducing uncertainty and enhancing competitiveness.

Internally, the financial pulse of the company has also strengthened. Within a year, NNPC Limited has reportedly remitted N14.706 trillion in statutory contributions to the federal government and related agencies. This figure is not merely a reflection of earnings; it speaks to improved discipline in revenue management and a renewed commitment to fulfilling the company’s fiscal responsibilities.

Early in his tenure, Ojulari acknowledged the weight of expectations placed upon him. The targets, he admitted, were tough. One year later, that admission reads less like caution and more like context. Out of the core mandates before him, he has made substantial progress on most, while deliberately slowing down on refining to reset the foundation. It is a record that suggests not perfection, but purpose.

As he steps into his second year, the questions will grow sharper. Progress must be sustained, gains must be scaled, and early decisions must translate into lasting transformation. But if the first year has established anything, it is that Ojulari is not inclined toward easy narratives. His approach has been to confront reality, however inconvenient, and to build from there.

In that sense, his first year has not merely been about “walking the talk.” It has been about redefining what the talk should be, and backing it with action.

Ben Ekori, an energy sector expert and public affairs analyst wrote this piece from Lagos.

As kidnapping and violent crime continue to escalate across Edo State, the government has announced plans to raise N160 billion to tackle ecological challenges, raising serious questions about priorities in the state.

The Executive Chairman of the Edo State Ecological Fund and Management Commission, Blessing Agbomhere, revealed during a press briefing on Wednesday that the funds would be raised through the Ecological/Climate Trust.

According to him, the Okpebholo Green Revolution for Edo is scheduled to launch next week.

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Agbomhere stated that Edo’s three-year budget would not be enough to remediate gully erosion sites across the state.

The over 60 gully erosion sites identified would be addressed in phases, with some remediation projects costing between N5 billion and N20 billion each.

The government also plans to plant one million trees in four years.

He further raised concerns over illegal sand mining, particularly in Edo South Senatorial District, revealing that many operators have no plans to restore the land after their operations, which continues to exacerbate erosion problems.

“A lot of companies are operating in Edo State. After their operation, they will leave the state without remediating the environment. We are calling on them to tell us their plans for remediation when they leave,” Agbomhere said.

While ecological initiatives are undeniably important, the timing and focus of the government are being questioned.

Kidnapping and insecurity are surging across the state, yet attention and resources are being directed toward environmental projects instead of immediate security measures.

At a time when fear dominates daily life for Edo citizens, raising millions for ecological projects while kidnappers roam freely sends a troubling message: are citizens’ lives being sidelined in pursuit of long-term environmental goals?

Biz Tellers raises the concern: shouldn’t security take precedence over climate projects when residents’ lives are under threat? The government insists that addressing ecological challenges is crucial for long-term development, but for many, this does not answer the urgent question of public safety.

As Edo faces both ecological and security challenges, the debate over government priorities intensifies.

The pressing question remains: is this really what the people need right now?