Citizens’ concerns over completion of ongoing negotiations before restarting oil production might be a clog in the wheel of the Federal Government’s plan for resuming oil activities in Ogoniland after 32 years.

This came to the fore because Ogoni people, under the platform of KAGOTE, representing Khana, Gokana, Tai and Eleme Local Government Areas, alleged that some oil-related activities may have commenced in parts of Ogoniland while the peace process with the Federal Government is still ongoing.

Speaking at a press conference in Port Harcourt on Tuesday, KAGOTE President, Chief Lesi Maol, said the development could undermine confidence in the dialogue process and create fresh distrust among the people.

Maol, however, commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his commitment to addressing the longstanding concerns of the Ogoni people.

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He said KAGOTE recognised the Federal Government’s decision to establish the Ogoni Dialogue Committee (ODC) and appoint National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, as its chief negotiator as evidence of its commitment to finding a lasting solution to the Ogoni crisis.

The ODC was inaugurated by the Federal Government in January 2025 to engage Ogoni stakeholders on the conditions for the resumption of oil production, rebuild trust and strengthen relations between the communities and the government.

“We particularly recognise the integrity and distinguished public service record of the National Security Adviser and believe that the dialogue process, as conceived by the Federal Government, represents a genuine opportunity to achieve lasting peace and a mutually beneficial outcome for both the Ogoni people and the Federal Government,” Maol said.

He, however, expressed concern over what he described as the conduct of some members of the dialogue committee, saying their actions required urgent clarification to protect the credibility of the process.

“There is a growing apprehension among sections of the Ogoni population that certain oil-related activities may have commenced in parts of Ogoniland while consultations between the Federal Government and Ogoni stakeholders remain ongoing,” he said.

According to him, the absence of clear information from the ODC leadership has created uncertainty in the communities.

Maol said he had received several representations from concerned Ogoni communities but had been unable to provide definitive answers because of the lack of authoritative information.

KAGOTE therefore urged the ODC and Federal Government to clearly communicate the status of oil activities in Ogoniland to prevent misinformation, speculation and unnecessary tension.

He stressed that transparency would be critical to sustaining the fragile trust required to achieve a peaceful and mutually acceptable resumption of oil production in the oil-rich region.

Regulatory uncertainty and overlapping mandates among government agencies have been identified as possible investments in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

The president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), Festus Osifo, expressed the view at the 5th PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit (PELS) 2026 in Abuja on Wednesday.

The labour leader called for a more predictable, transparent and efficient regulatory framework to attract investment and sustain growth in the sector.

He said the theme of the summit, “Strengthening Regulatory Frameworks as a Catalyst for Stability and Growth in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Industry,” was deliberately chosen because investors require clear rules and predictability before committing capital to long-term projects.

He identified the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 as a major milestone in the effort to reform the industry, but noted that subsequent alterations to the framework have created uncertainty among investors.

He expressed concern over the removal of some fiscal provisions from the PIA and their movement to the Nigeria Revenue Act, as well as the use of executive orders to amend provisions of the law.

He also raised concerns about overlapping responsibilities among the various institutions regulating the oil and gas industry, saying operators should not be subjected to repetitive approvals, multiple inspections or conflicting directives.

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He said while regulation was necessary to protect workers, communities, investors and government revenues, it should not become an obstacle to investment.

Osifo urged regulators to streamline approval processes to enable operators to make timely investment decisions, noting that delays could affect new development plans, final investment decisions and production growth.

The PENGASSAN president also called for stronger protection of workers during acquisitions and divestments in the oil and gas sector. He said changes in ownership of oil and gas assets should not lead to workers losing their jobs, pensions, collective bargaining agreements and other established rights.

He equally warned against abuse of expatriate quotas, saying foreign workers should only be engaged where genuine skills gaps exist.

According to him, every expatriate engagement should be tied to measurable knowledge transfer and succession plans that would ultimately increase Nigerian capacity.

“These do not instill confidence or promote stability. Instead, they amplify uncertainty and disruption.

“What we require is not weak regulations. What we need is smarter regulations; regulations that understand commercial realities, embrace technology and eliminate unnecessary duplication.

“Capital is mobile and investors will naturally gravitate towards jurisdictions where there is clarity and efficiency.

“Licences and assets may change hands, but workers are not commodities to be discarded at will,” Osifo said.

Osifo further called for stronger enforcement of health, safety, environmental and local content regulations, stressing that increased oil production must not come at the expense of workers’ lives.

He also urged the government and industry stakeholders to accelerate investment in domestic refining, gas processing and LPG, CNG and LNG infrastructure, noting that Nigeria’s abundant gas resources could support power generation, petrochemicals, fertiliser production, transportation and industrialisation.

Osifo said Nigeria must go beyond recovering lost production and focus on unlocking new reserves, attracting fresh capital and sustainably increasing crude oil and gas output.

He called for stronger collaboration among government, regulators, operators and labour, saying sustainable investment and job creation could only be achieved through predictable policies, accountability and mutual respect.

“Without investment, there will be no project. Without projects, there will be no sustainable jobs. Without production, there will be no revenue. And without fairness and stability, none of these can endure,” he added.

Persistent weaknesses in offshore crude production which left output below the level on which the 2026 federal budget was set out, has brought Nigeria’s fiscal position under pressure despite a strong rally in international oil prices.

MoneyAfrica shed light on this in its newsletter on Monday, asserting that Nigeria produced an average of 1.505 million barrels per day of crude oil in July, which industry figures aver is marginally above her Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota of 1.50 million bpd for the third consecutive month.

However, July output was 4 percent lower than in June, reflecting technical disruptions at some offshore oil fields.

MoneyAfrica said while the performance signals an improvement from the severe production losses Nigeria experienced in previous years, it remains insufficient to meet the government’s revenue plans.

When condensates are included, total liquids production averaged 1.67 million bpd in July, well below the 1.84 million bpd benchmark used in the 2026 budget.

The volume gap has remained a central risk to public finances throughout the year, constraining the amount of oil available for export and limiting the government’s capacity to convert stronger global prices into a material revenue windfall.

Crude prices have, nonetheless, provided an important cushion. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have supported global oil markets, pushing Nigeria’s realised crude prices to around 29 percent above the budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.

“This suggests gross oil revenue during the first half of the year may have exceeded the budgeted level in nominal terms, even with production running below target.

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Yet the higher-price environment has primarily neutralised the effect of lower export volumes instead of creating meaningful additional fiscal headroom.

Nigeria is therefore still exposed to a reversal in global prices, while its production base remains vulnerable to operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints and delayed investment”, the newsletter read.

The challenge is reflected in the government’s reported $2.49 billion oil-revenue shortfall in the first half of 2026. That underperformance, MoneyAfrica, said, feeds directly into the fiscal deficit and could increase the government’s financing needs, placing further pressure on domestic borrowing costs and public debt metrics.

The administration has intensified efforts to attract investment into oil and gas, particularly deep-offshore projects that could help rebuild output over the medium term.

Measures include tax incentives intended to improve project economics, unlock capital and shorten the path to final investment decisions.

The government has set an ambition to raise production towards 3 million bpd, but the scale of capital expenditure, technical work and infrastructure improvements required means the target is unlikely to be achieved quickly.

MoneyAfrica said, “For now, Nigeria is producing enough crude to comply with its OPEC quota, but not enough to deliver the oil volumes embedded in its own budget. Until offshore operations are stabilised and new investment translates into sustained barrels, higher crude prices will offer only a temporary buffer rather than a durable solution to the country’s fiscal vulnerability”.