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How Dangote’s Full Refinery Capacity Could Push Naira Below ₦1,000 — Otedola

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Billionaire businessman and investor, Femi Otedola, has explained how the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of its full production capacity could significantly strengthen the Nigerian naira, projecting that the currency may trade below ₦1,000 to the United States dollar before the end of 2026.

Otedola made the assertion on Thursday in a post shared on X while congratulating Aliko Dangote on the refinery’s milestone of reaching 650,000 barrels per day capacity.

According to him, the refinery’s ability to meet a substantial portion of Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand marks a turning point for the country’s economy.

ALSO READ: Dangote Refinery Backs Gantry Loading, Cautions Against Costly Coastal Evacuation

He noted that the facility can supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily, drastically reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products.

How It Could Strengthen the Naira
Otedola explained that for decades, Nigeria depended heavily on fuel imports, placing immense pressure on the foreign exchange market as billions of dollars were spent annually to meet domestic energy needs.

With local refining now fully operational, the demand for foreign exchange to import refined petroleum products is expected to drop significantly.

This, he said, would ease pressure on the dollar, conserve foreign reserves, and help stabilise the exchange rate.

“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” Otedola stated.

“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach.”

Why the Projection Matters

The naira has already shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. At the official market, it traded around ₦1,354 to the dollar on Thursday, while the parallel market rate hovered between ₦1,430 and ₦1,440 — its strongest performance in over two years, according to market sources.

Economic analysts say sustained domestic refining could reduce import dependency, improve Nigeria’s trade balance, and boost investor confidence — all of which are key factors in currency stability.

Beyond the current 650,000 barrels per day capacity, Otedola revealed that Dangote Group has commenced work on a $12 billion expansion project aimed at increasing refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.

The expansion will also include production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkyl benzene, a key raw material in detergent manufacturing.

The development comes amid ongoing efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to stabilise the foreign exchange market through liquidity-enhancing measures and policies designed to narrow the gap between official and parallel market rates.

If sustained, stakeholders believe the refinery’s full capacity could mark a major step toward long-term forex stability and economic transformation in Nigeria.

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DPRP Tops US for Second Consecutive Month as Europe’s Largest Jet Fuel Supplier

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  • Accounts for 20% of Europe’s jet fuel imports, reinforcing its position as a major force in global aviation fuel trade

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) has strengthened its position as a global supplier of premium aviation fuel after emerging as Europe’s largest jet fuel supplier for the second consecutive month, overtaking the United States and underscoring its growing influence on international energy markets.

Latest European import data compiled by global commodities intelligence firm Kpler show that more than 400,000 tonnes of jet fuel produced by the 700,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery were delivered into Europe in July, accounting for approximately 20 percent of the continent’s total jet fuel imports during the month.

The performance follows a record 466,000 tonnes exported to Europe in June, when Nigeria first displaced the United States as the region’s leading supplier of imported jet fuel.

The sustained export performance marks a significant milestone for the refinery, demonstrating its ability to consistently supply one of the world’s most demanding fuel markets with aviation fuel that meets stringent international quality specifications.

ALSO READ: DPRP Slashes PMS to ₦1,165/Litre, Diesel to ₦1,570/Litre

Europe imported approximately 2.06 million tonnes of jet fuel in July, with Dangote accounting for the single largest share of those imports, ahead of traditional suppliers from the United States and the Middle East.

Industry observers say the refinery is rapidly reshaping established Atlantic Basin fuel trade flows by offering a competitive alternative to long standing suppliers. While European buyers have traditionally relied on refiners in the United States, the Middle East and Asia, Dangote’s strategic location on Nigeria’s Atlantic coast, combined with its scale, modern technology and export capability, has enabled it to become an increasingly important source of aviation fuel for European markets.

The refinery’s export momentum has been supported by steadily rising production. Jet fuel loadings at Dangote’s Lekki export terminal reached a record 550,000 tonnes in June, while crude deliveries to the refinery climbed to an all time high of 660,000 barrels per day, providing the throughput required to sustain growing exports of refined petroleum products to international markets.

The latest figures come at a time of shifting global energy flows. Although Europe received limited volumes of jet fuel from Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman in July, market disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and evolving geopolitical dynamics have encouraged buyers to diversify supply sources. Against this backdrop, Dangote Refinery has emerged as a reliable and competitive supplier, reinforcing Nigeria’s growing importance in global refined products trade.

“Beyond aviation fuel, the refinery has continued to expand exports of diesel, gasoline and other refined petroleum products to destinations across Europe, Africa and other international markets, further strengthening Nigeria’s position as a net exporter of high value petroleum products,” noted David Bird, MD/CEO, DPRP

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Nigeria to Phaseout Crude Oil Exports

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The Nigerian government is shifting focus from exporting crude oil to transform into a major hub for refined petroleum products in Africa.

The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Rabiu Umar, disclosed this on Monday at the 49th Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council in Lagos.

Umar said Nigeria’s expanding refining capacity meant the country should increasingly process its crude locally rather than export the raw commodity.

He said the development of new private and modular refineries was rapidly transforming Nigeria from a crude oil exporter and importer of refined petroleum products into a regional refining hub.

“The fact that today, we have more refining capacity in Nigeria than we’ve ever had. And, of course, with the projects that are on stream and the expansions that we are also going to witness in the coming years, clearly Nigeria is going to turn into a refining hub for Africa, which means that perhaps every single molecule of our three million barrels a day production that we hope to achieve in the next couple of years will actually be refined locally.

“What that means, and I think this is a monumental shift, is a handshake between the upstream, midstream and downstream. Effectively, it’s not just exporting the raw crude, but making sure that what we actually end up exporting is the refined petroleum products. And I think this is quite substantial,” he stated.

The NMDPRA chief executive said his agency was working with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to enforce the domestic crude supply obligation, which he described as critical to supporting the country’s growing refining industry.

“True resilience requires operational and commercial balance. And we remain steadfast in working with our sister agency, the NUPRC, in enforcing the domestic crude supply obligation. And this is really, really important because if we have enough refining capacity, really we don’t have any reason to be exporting crude oil.

“The more of the refined products we are able to export, the more value we create because, after extraction, we’re also adding value, including in the gas and petrochemical sectors as well,” Umar stated.

He said the shift towards domestic refining would enable Nigeria to capture more value from its petroleum resources by integrating the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors. Umar also identified energy security, gas expansion and regulatory excellence as key priorities of the NMDPRA.

ALSO READ: Why SPE Tips Nigeria to Attain 3mbpd Oil Output by 2030

He said the authority was working to ensure adequate petroleum product stocks were maintained close to markets to guard against supply disruptions and price shocks.

“In addition, we are also working on ensuring that we maintain a certain level of stock in the country at any given point in time. As we’ve seen with the current global crises, we have seen how countries have had to dip into their reserves to make sure that prices don’t escalate.

“So, when we talk about energy security, it’s not just having the products on the coastline, but having the products near markets. In addition to that, we’re also working to make sure that we have stock that will have a protocol of release to make sure that prices remain fairly stable because, of course, as we know, supply and demand drive what we see in terms of pricing,” he added.

Umar said the NMDPRA was also removing bottlenecks affecting the deployment of midstream infrastructure, including pipelines, depots and strategic storage terminals.

He said the agency was working with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, to rehabilitate critical infrastructure, strengthen integrity management, sustain throughput, and reduce losses and disruptions.

On regulation, Umar said the authority was seeking to make the sector more predictable for investors by reducing bureaucratic hurdles and speeding up regulatory decisions.

“On our own part, what we’re trying to do is to make sure that we move away from regulators being seen as police people. Our job is to make sure that the environment is predictable. People can predict what to expect. People can actually determine how long it will take to get a certain refining licence, for example. Because once the conditions are met, it’s like clockwork.

“Because we can’t move forward in the 21st century in terms of investment when we are having a mindset of 1960. So this is really the core of what we’re trying to achieve,” Umar explained.

The NMDPRA chief executive said Nigeria was also seeking to strengthen its position in the West African petroleum products market through the development of a regional pricing benchmark.

He said the initiative, being pursued with other West African regulators and S&P Global Commodity Insights, would help create a transparent regional market and turn Nigeria into a trading hub.

“Our idea is to see how we can actually turn Nigeria into a trading hub. Working with other West African regulators, how do we have one single standard or, if you like, specification for all the products that we consume? That way, people can move products from one region to another without constraint. Today, you hear 50 ppm, somewhere it’s 200 ppm, and all sorts of other parameters that are different,” he stated.

Umar urged stakeholders to focus on implementing existing policies and strategies rather than continuing to develop new plans.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said collaboration remained critical to developing Nigeria’s oil and gas industry amid rapid changes in the global energy landscape.

Eyesan said geopolitical developments, climate considerations, technological disruptions, artificial intelligence, changing investment priorities and rising energy demand were redefining how countries produce, transport and consume energy.

“The theme of this year’s conference, ‘Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience,’ speaks directly to the realities confronting our industry today.”

She said the conference was more than an annual gathering, noting that discussions held at the event over the years had contributed to shaping the direction of Nigeria’s petroleum industry.

Eyesan said collaboration among government, regulators, operators, investors, service providers and professionals had helped shape reforms in the upstream sector.

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Why SPE Tips Nigeria to Attain 3mbpd Oil Output by 2030

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The Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Council is of the view that the country will achieve three million barrels of oil production per day by 2030.

Biztellers reports that the thoughts are predicated on the oil and gas sector regaining global investor confidence owing to reforms, transparent licensing rounds and accelerated gas development reposition, factors that have combined to make the country an attractive investment destination for major global players in the sector.

Chairman of the SPE Nigeria Council, Francis Nwaochei, stated this at the opening ceremony of the 49th Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE 2026) in Lagos on Monday.

The NAICE 2026 is holding under the theme: Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience”.

ALSO READ: How Will Local Petrol Prices Respond to Tumbling Oil Prices?

He said the recent policy reforms and coordinated actions by government and industry stakeholders were restoring confidence across the petroleum sector after years of declining investment.

According to him, Nigeria’s energy industry is entering a new phase driven by regulatory reforms, improved transparency, indigenous capacity and renewed efforts to attract long term capital.

He cited the successful conclusion of the 2025 Licensing Round, in which 31 companies emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks, as evidence of renewed investor appetite and a more transparent competitive bidding process.

“The industry is not standing still. The conclusion of recent licensing and bid rounds signals renewed investor interest and a more transparent competitive process.” The SPE Nigeria Council Chairman noted that the Federal Government’s Decade of Gas initiative was steadily positioning natural gas as the foundation for industrialisation, improved electricity supply, cleaner energy access and economic diversification. He also described the Federal Government’s planned N4 trillion government-backed bond to settle verified debts owed to electricity generation companies and gas suppliers as a significant intervention that would restore liquidity, improve bankability and strengthen confidence across Nigeria’s power and gas value chain.

According to him, these developments complement the broader vision of the Federal Government to increase crude oil production, deepen gas commercialisation and create a more predictable and investor-friendly operating environment.

He noted that the Ministers of State for Petroleum Resources, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) had consistently aligned around the goal of attracting investment, improving regulatory efficiency, expanding gas utilisation and growing Nigeria’s production capacity to three million barrels per day by 2030.

“The reforms, investments, regulatory actions and industry commitments we are witnessing today are the beginning of what resilience truly means for Nigeria’s energy industry,” he said.

Nwaochei said Nigeria possesses significant competitive advantages, including abundant hydrocarbon resources, resilient indigenous operators, world-class technical professionals and an expanding technology ecosystem capable of supporting long-term industry growth.

He, however, stressed that sustaining the industry’s momentum would require policy consistency, stronger regulatory coordination, technology deployment, local content development and greater collaboration among government, operators and investors.

“Nigeria’s energy future will be determined not only by the resources beneath our soil, but by how we develop technical solutions to our unique challenges, the quality of our leadership, the strength of our institutions, the clarity and stability of our policies, our willingness to innovate and our commitment to collaboration,” he said.

He urged participants at the three-day conference to move beyond identifying industry challenges and instead develop practical, implementable solutions capable of positioning Nigeria as a globally competitive energy destination.

The conference, one of Africa’s largest annual gatherings of petroleum professionals, will attract government officials, regulators, international and indigenous oil companies, service providers, investors, researchers, technology firms and students from Nigeria and other countries to discuss the future of the energy industry.

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