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How Middle East Conflict Is Triggering Fresh Economic Fears in Nigeria – MAN

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Nigeria’s economy is facing renewed uncertainty as the escalating Middle East conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran begins to send shockwaves across global markets, with local manufacturers warning of severe consequences.

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has raised alarm that the crisis could significantly disrupt Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery, particularly impacting the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, which are heavily dependent on global supply chains.

In a statement, MAN Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the intensifying geopolitical tensions have become a major driver of production costs, stressing that Nigeria is not insulated from global shocks.

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“When the US and the Middle East sneeze, the global economy catches a cold, and Nigeria is not an exception,” he said.

According to MAN, although global crude oil prices have risen to about $84 per barrel amid the tensions, Nigeria may not fully benefit due to its limited production capacity, currently estimated at between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels per day.

This, the association noted, reduces potential foreign exchange earnings despite favourable oil prices.

The group further warned that Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States—one of its key partners—could come under pressure. Data shows that Nigeria exported goods worth $5.91 billion to the US in 2024, representing 9.3 percent of total exports, while imports stood at $4.33 billion.

MAN also highlighted growing concerns over global logistics disruptions, particularly along key Middle Eastern transit routes. Such disruptions, it said, could lead to increased freight costs, longer delivery timelines, and a spike in imported inflation.

The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by investors seeking safe-haven assets, is also expected to pile pressure on the naira, further increasing the cost of raw materials and production for Nigerian manufacturers.

A sectoral breakdown revealed that the chemical and pharmaceutical industries are the most exposed, given their reliance on petrochemical inputs and imported Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs).

In 2023, chemical products accounted for about 88 percent of Nigeria’s manufactured exports to the United States, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to global price fluctuations.

Other industries are also feeling the strain. The basic metal, iron, and steel sector is grappling with rising energy costs, while the food, beverage, and tobacco segment faces higher prices for imported grains and packaging materials.

MAN warned that manufacturers are now battling a double burden of rising production costs and weakening consumer demand, a situation that could derail the sector’s projected 3.1 percent growth in 2026.

“The time for reactive measures is over. Nigeria must proactively fortify its manufacturing base to withstand external shocks,” the association stated.

 

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Stakeholder Commends NMDPRA for Averting Aviation Fuel Crisis

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Subsidy Removal: NMDPRA Assures Smooth Fuel Supply

An oil sector advocacy group has commended the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), for stabilising the aviation fuel market, noting that its recent intervention helped ease tensions across the aviation sector and averted potential disruptions to flight operations.

This was detailed in a statement on Tuesday under the signature of the centre’s Executive Director, Tunde Adeyemi.
It averred that the regulator’s clarification on fuel availability and pricing came at a critical time, when uncertainty over Jet A1 costs had heightened anxiety among airline operators and other stakeholders.

Adeyemi noted that confirmation of over 70 days’ aviation fuel sufficiency reflects a strong supply position and underscores the resilience of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum framework.

Adeyemi said the regulator’s data-driven disclosure helped counter widespread speculation, including claims of a potential spike in aviation fuel prices that had raised fears of flight disruptions and higher airfares.

“The timely intervention by the Authority provided much-needed clarity and helped calm frayed nerves within the aviation ecosystem. At a time when misinformation could have escalated into a crisis, the regulator chose transparency and facts, which is commendable,” he said.

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He added that aviation fuel remains a major cost driver for airlines in Nigeria, making stability in supply and pricing critical to the sector’s sustainability.

According to him, the Authority’s emphasis on the deregulated nature of the Jet A1 market is key to shaping realistic expectations, as pricing is influenced by global oil trends, foreign exchange fluctuations, and logistics costs.

“It is important for stakeholders to understand that aviation fuel pricing is market-driven. What the regulator has done is provide clarity that supports informed decision-making,” he said.

The group also highlighted the growing role of domestic refining in moderating fuel prices, noting that locally refined aviation fuel is being sold slightly below international benchmarks — an indication of improving local capacity.

It urged stakeholders across the aviation fuel value chain to avoid spreading unverified claims capable of distorting market realities or undermining confidence in the sector.

“Responsible engagement is critical. All parties must work together to sustain stability and ensure that recent gains are not reversed by panic or misinformation,” Adeyemi added.

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NNPC Ltd Delivers over 1bn Barrels to Dangote in April

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There are indications from the trading arm of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) that crude supplies to the Dangote Oil and Gas Company Limited (DOGC) in April 2026, increased to more than 1.03 million metric tonnes, equivalent to about 6.8 million barrels or over 1.08 billion litres.

An analysis of tanker vessel movements obtained by The PUNCH on Tuesday shows that the deliveries were executed through eight crude cargoes handled by NNPC Trading, reinforcing the state oil firm’s role as a major feedstock supplier to the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery.

The shipments, sourced from key Nigerian crude streams including Anyala, Bonga, Odudu, Forcados, Qua Iboe, and Utapate, were routed through the refinery’s Single Point Mooring systems, SPM-C1 and SPM-C2.

The document shows that out of the eight cargoes, five have been fully discharged, while three others are still awaiting berthing or completion, indicating a steady pipeline of crude inflows into the refinery.

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This development comes amid the refinery’s continued complaints of supply inadequacies, with a total requirement of 19 cargoes monthly, and a recent report that the country imported 55.39 million barrels in January and February 2026.

A breakdown of the deliveries showed that Sonangol Kalandula initiated the supply chain, delivering 123,000 metric tonnes of crude from Anyala. The vessel arrived on April 5, berthed on April 8, and sailed on April 9.

This was followed by Advantage Spring, which supplied 128,190 metric tonnes from Bonga, arriving on April 11 and completing discharge by April 13.

Similarly, a vessel code-named Barbarosa delivered 125,000 metric tonnes from Odudu, while Sonangol Njinga Mban transported 129,089 metric tonnes from Bonga.

Another completed shipment, handled by Nordic Tellus, brought in 139,066 metric tonnes from Forcados, completing discharge on April 17.

However, three additional cargoes remain in progress. Advantage Sun, carrying 142,327 metric tonnes from Bonga, has arrived but is yet to berth. Also pending are Advantage Spring from Utapate with 120,189 metric tonnes, and Sonangol Kalandula from Qua Iboe with 126,471 metric tonnes.

In total, the NNPC Trading cargoes account for 1,033,332 metric tonnes of crude, underscoring what industry analysts describe as a “strong and sustained supply commitment” to the Dangote refinery.

Further findings show that, beyond crude deliveries, the Dangote refinery also received multiple shipments of refined products and blending components from international markets during the period.

Among them, Seaways Lonsdale delivered 37,400 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Immingham, United Kingdom, handled by Vitol, between April 18 and 19.

Another vessel, Augenstern, supplied 37,125 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit from Lavera, France, discharging between April 8 and 9.
From Norway, Emma Grace brought in 37,496 metric tonnes of PMS from Mongstad, while LVM Aaron delivered 36,323 metric tonnes from Lome, Togo.

Similarly, Egret discharged 35,498 metric tonnes of naphtha from Rotterdam between April 16 and 18, providing critical feedstock for gasoline blending.

A pending shipment, Mont Blanc I, carrying 36,877 metric tonnes of blendstock gasoline from Antwerp, Belgium, is yet to berth, while Aesop is expected to deliver 130,000 metric tonnes of residue catalytic oil from Singapore later in April.

In addition to NNPC Trading volumes, other crude cargoes from international and domestic traders also supported refinery operations.

Notably, Yasa Hercules delivered 273,287 metric tonnes of crude from Corpus Christi, United States, while Front Orkla brought in 264,889 metric tonnes from Ingleside, US.

A major cargo, Navig8 Passion, supplied 496,330 metric tonnes of crude from Cameroon, highlighting regional supply integration.

Domestic contributions included Harmonic, which delivered nearly 993,240 barrels from Ugo Ocha, and Aura M, which supplied 1 million barrels from Escravos, alongside an additional 651,331 barrels of cargo from Anyala.

Operational data indicate that most vessels berthed within one to two days of arrival and departed shortly after discharge, suggesting improved efficiency at the refinery’s offshore terminals.

The Dangote refinery, located in Lekki, Lagos, is Africa’s largest single-train refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

The facility is expected to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products by refining domestic crude and supplying petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and other derivatives to the local market.

NNPC Limited, through its trading arm, has remained a central player in supplying crude to the refinery under evolving commercial arrangements, amid ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

Earlier this month, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, revealed in a report by Bloomberg that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned oil firm in March, compared to an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.

Dangote said the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the crude supply arrangement between the refinery and the NNPC.

“Nigeria doubled crude supply to Dangote Refinery in March as Africa’s top oil producer moved to shore up fuel availability after the Iran war disrupted Middle East shipments. Last month, they gave us six cargoes with payments in naira and four cargoes with payments in dollars,” he stated.

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Dangote Champions Infrastructure, Job Creation as Catalysts for Africa’s Economic Growth at IMF/World Bank Meetings

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Africa’s leading industrialist and President and Chief Executive of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has reaffirmed the central role of infrastructure development, job creation, and private sector investment in accelerating Africa’s economic transformation.

Dangote made this assertion during a series of high-level engagements with global financial leaders on the sidelines of the recently concluded International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. The meetings formed part of his ongoing efforts to mobilise investment flows and deepen strategic partnerships within Nigeria’s energy and industrial sectors.

During a keynote address at the World Bank’s Water Forward event, Dangote emphasised the urgency of scaling private sector participation to reposition water systems as enablers of industrialisation and employment across developing economies. He noted that infrastructure, particularly effective and sustainable water management, remains foundational to inclusive growth and long-term economic resilience.

“Africa’s growth story will be defined by our ability to invest in infrastructure that supports industry, creates jobs, and unlocks productivity across the continent,” Dangote said. “When the private sector is fully engaged, especially in critical areas like water and energy, it becomes a powerful engine for inclusive and sustainable development,” he said.

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As part of his engagements, Dangote also held strategic discussions with senior global financial leaders, including World Bank President Ajay Banga, focusing on accelerating capital inflows into Africa’s industrial sector. He stressed that rapid industrialisation is vital to strengthening economic resilience, promoting diversification, and reducing the continent’s exposure to external shocks.

Dangote further outlined the Group’s Vision 2030 strategy, which targets the significant expansion of operations across the Dangote Refinery, Fertiliser and Petrochemical Complex, and other business units, with the goal of achieving annual revenues of US$100 billion. According to him, the strategy reinforces the Group’s long-standing commitment to Africa-led industrial growth and sustainable development.

Reiterating his position, Dangote underscored that robust private sector participation — backed by reliable infrastructure — is essential to unlocking the economic value of water resources and advancing inclusive development across Africa.

The World Bank event attracted a distinguished audience, including heads of government, the United Nations Secretary-General, leaders of European development institutions, and representatives of multilateral development partners.

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