Business
IMF Executive Board Completes Third Review Under the PLL Arrangement with Morocco and Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation
RABAT – On January 31, 2014, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the third review of Morocco’s economic performance under a program supported by a 24-month Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement and concluded the 2013 Article IV consultation with Morocco.1
The PLL arrangement was approved on August 3, 2012 in an amount equivalent to SDR 4.12 billion (about US$6.2 billion or 700 percent of Morocco’s quota), (See Press Release No. 12/287). The Executive Board concluded the second review on July 31, 2013. The authorities are treating the arrangement as precautionary..
The PLL arrangement continues to support the authorities’ home-grown reform agenda aimed at achieving higher and more inclusive economic growth by providing an insurance against external shocks. The PLL was introduced to meet more flexibly the liquidity needs of member countries with sound economic fundamentals and strong record of policy implementation but with some remaining vulnerabilities.
Following the Board discussion of the review, Ms. Nemat Shafik, Deputy Managing Director, and Acting Chair made the following statement:
“Notwithstanding the continued unfavorable external environment and challenging domestic conditions, Morocco’s macroeconomic performance improved in 2013, supported by strong policy commitment and implementation, as well as the insurance provided by the PLL. Important measures taken by the authorities helped reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities and strengthen the economy’s resilience. Given significant downside risks and persistently high unemployment, the economic outlook will depend on the sustained delivery of policy and structural reforms designed to continue rebuilding policy buffers and promote higher and more inclusive growth.
“The substantial reduction in energy subsidies achieved in 2013, along with increased social assistance to the most vulnerable, helped strengthen the fiscal accounts and reduce underlying fiscal vulnerabilities. Looking ahead, continued strengthening of public finances will require a reorientation of revenue and spending to better support growth and inclusiveness, along with the passage of a new organic budget law that incorporates best practices with respect to fiscal discipline, coverage and expenditure control.
“Sustaining the recent gains in improving Morocco’s external position hinges on measures to support its external competitiveness. Structural reforms in this area are a priority. More flexibility in the exchange rate regime, in close coordination with other macroeconomic policies, would also help and would increase the economy’s resilience to external shocks.
“Further reforms are needed to strengthen the business climate, transparency, and the judiciary system and to improve the functioning of the labor market in order to attract foreign direct investment and promote strong job growth. Broader financial inclusion including greater access to credit for small and medium-sized enterprises is also needed to foster higher growth and boost employment.”
The Executive Board also concluded the 2013 Article IV consultation with Morocco.
The Moroccan economy has weathered the recent unfavorable regional and global economic context relatively well. GDP growth is expected to have reached about 4.5 percent in 2013 on the back of an exceptional agricultural season. Growth in other sectors has been dragged down by the effects of the European crisis, but is expected to rebound in 2014 for an overall growth rate of around 4 percent. Inflation is well under control, while the financial sector remains sound. The 2013 current account deficit was reduced and international reserves have been stable above four months of imports for more than a year, thanks in part to sustained foreign investment and access to international bond markets at favorable terms. Lower international oil prices and policy actions helped reduce the fiscal deficit from 7.3 percent of GDP in 2012 to 5.4 percent in 2013.
Executive Board Assessment2
Executive Directors commended the economy’s resilience in the face of significant external shocks and challenging domestic conditions, and welcomed recent measures that successfully helped reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities. Noting Morocco’s high unemployment rate and the downside risks to the outlook, Directors advised sustaining reforms to continue rebuilding policy buffers and promote higher and more inclusive growth.
Directors supported efforts to strengthen the public finances and support both fiscal and external sustainability. They welcomed the reduction of energy subsidies in 2013 while increasing social protection to the most vulnerable, and encouraged the authorities to sustain such efforts. They advised that revenue and spending should be reoriented to better support growth and inclusiveness in 2014 and beyond, through reforms aimed at broadening the tax base, reviewing tax incentives and exemptions, reforming the VAT system, moderating the public wage bill, and reforming the pension system.
Directors welcomed the adoption by the Council of Ministers of the new Organic Budget Law as a step toward the establishment of a modern and improved fiscal framework. They called for strengthening the provisions of the draft law pertaining to fiscal discipline, coverage and expenditure control, in line with international best practice, and looked forward to the law’s timely approval ahead of the preparation of the 2015 finance law.
Directors underscored that consolidation of Morocco’s external position hinges on improving its external competitiveness. They stressed the critical importance of structural reforms in this area. They noted that a move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, in coordination with other macroeconomic policies, would also help and would increase the economy’s resilience to external shocks. In this regard, Directors welcomed the Fund’s provision of technical assistance to the Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) to help prepare for a smooth transition to more exchange rate flexibility. They recommended further reforms to strengthen the business climate, transparency, and the judiciary system and to improve the functioning of the labor market in order to attract private investment and promote strong job growth.
Directors supported BAM’s efforts to strengthen banking supervision and regulatory arrangements, including gradual adherence to the Basel III norms, as well as closer monitoring of the banking sector’s international expansion. They underscored the importance of financial deepening and increased access to credit for small and medium-sized enterprises for fostering sustained growth.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a stern warning to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) over the illegal sale of mint Naira notes to currency hawkers.
The apex bank, in a circular signed by the Acting Director of Currency Operations, Mr. Solaja Olayemi, on Friday, emphasized that erring banks would face stringent penalties.
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As part of its efforts to curb the abuse of the national currency, the CBN announced plans to conduct nationwide checks to seize mint notes sold by hawkers.
Banks found to have released such notes will be required to pay a fine of 10% of the value of the affected cash withdrawn from the CBN on the date in question.
Subsequent violations will attract an additional penalty incrementally increased by 5%.
The CBN also reiterated its commitment to enforcing the Clean Notes Policy, warning that banks involved in hoarding, diversion, or any actions that disrupt efficient cash distribution would face appropriate sanctions.
With the festive season fast approaching, the apex bank urged DMBs to enhance internal controls to ensure transparent cash distribution.
It highlighted the need for proper utilization of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) to ensure easy access to new notes by the public.
Furthermore, the CBN disclosed plans to intensify its mystery shopping and spot checks, working closely with law enforcement agencies to clamp down on any practices that undermine the integrity of the Naira.
Nigeria’s inflation rate surged to 33.88% in October 2024, up from 32.7% in September, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.
The month-on-month increase of 1.18 percentage points marks yet another strain on the nation’s economy, with transportation and food costs cited as the main drivers of inflation.
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Steep Year-on-Year Increase
Compared to October 2023, when the inflation rate stood at 27.33%, the October 2024 figure reflects a significant rise of 6.55 percentage points. This sustained upward trend highlights the worsening cost-of-living crisis for Nigerians.
Month-on-Month Breakdown
Inflation on a month-on-month basis also showed an uptick, rising to 2.64% in October 2024 from 2.52% in September. The faster rate of price increases further underscores the growing economic pressure on households.
Food Inflation Soars to 39.16%
Food inflation, a major component of the headline rate, reached 39.16% in October 2024, up from 31.52% in the same month last year.
The increase was driven by higher prices of staple items, including: Cereals and Tubers: Guinea Corn, Rice, Maize Grains, Yam, Water Yam, and Coco Yam. Oils and Fats: Palm Oil and Vegetable Oil. Beverages: Milo, Lipton, and Bourvita.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose by 0.30 percentage points to 2.94% in October, up from 2.64% in September.
Price hikes in Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil, Fish, Meat, and Bread categories were major contributors.
Annual Food Inflation Hits 38.12%
The average annual food inflation rate over the past 12 months climbed to 38.12%, a sharp increase of 11.79 percentage points from the 26.33% recorded in October 2023.
The consistent rise in inflation, particularly food and transportation costs, continues to erode the purchasing power of Nigerians.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has expressed the view that support of both Nigerians and the government for the Dangote Refinery, would enable the giant refinery to perform optimally.
It added that such support will also serve as an impetus for other investors to invest in the downstream sector of the petroleum industry in Nigeria.
The President of MAN, Otunba Francis Meshioye, who made the call after a tour of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Petrochemical Complex and Fertilizer Plant advocated that Nigerians and the government should do all they can to support the multi-billion-dollar company, which he described as a source of pride and a gift not only to Nigeria but also to the African continent and the whole world.
He described the Dangote Refinery as a game-changer in the Nigerian oil and gas industry, saying that it is not only creating jobs and driving economic growth but also contributing to our nation’s energy security and self-sufficiency.
According to him, the project is quite inspiring, and he admired the inspiration of the promoter of the project, Aliko Dangote.
He said, “To have been inspired to establish this facility is very magnificent, it is the first ever in Africa and the first ever of such refinery in the whole world. It has many first, first and first.”
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The company has the capacity to produce all our needs locally, petroleum, and other similar products: no one would come to the facility and he would not be inspired or encouraged to ensure that all the support that the company requires should be given to it.
The MAN President said the government should do all that is humanly possible to ensure that the facility works Optimally. “It is prudent and expedient that the necessary supports are given to the company for the economic benefits of Nigeria.
“If the facility can produce 650,000 barrels of crude per day and Nigeria is producing far above this volume per day, she should give the facility all crude it needed to produce”.
He noted that apart from the fact that the facility can give Nigerians what they need locally, the excess will be exported, and when they are exported, the country benefits because it will earn foreign exchange for the government.
“So, whichever way we look at it, the facility requires the government’s support to be able to operate optimally. We have seen the laboratory which is in a class of its own. It is first among equals around the world. It is functioning very well. It is a complex on its own.
“With this kind of facility that starts from quality control to quality assurance, just to ensure that the harmful effects of the products are at zero level, what can be greater than this? This is very unique and I will encourage all stakeholders to give maximum support, and not by the way support, but maximum support.
“I cannot see anything that is lacking in this company, we have been here since morning and went through all the units. The facility can deliver products between 1760 trucks to 1800 trucks per day. So if you have such several trucks going out of the facility a day to various destinations in Nigeria, so many people will benefit from it. There will be more jobs, many families will be comfortable because of the jobs this will create, many artisans will benefit and it will have a spillover effect on so many sectors of the economy.
“If they can produce AGO, gasoline and Jet A fuel, this is good and the government should have no reason not to ensure the facility gets its backing to carry out its activities, because it is going to benefit massively,” he added.
The MAN boss who stated that his organization is an advocacy group, said to a large extent it will support the Dangote Refinery by pushing its case with the government, and also solicit the support of necessary government agencies that can ensure that it operates fully.
The association, he said, always discusses with the government issues that affect its members and it has always listened to it , and always finds solutions to those issues, stating further that Dangote Refinery’s case will not be different.
“The sheer scale and ambition of this project is truly impressive, and we applaud the vision and determination of the Dangote Group in making this refinery a reality.
As manufacturers, we understand the importance of reliable and affordable energy in driving our businesses forward. The Dangote Refinery will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the entire manufacturing value chain, providing a reliable source of fuel and petrochemical products that are essential for capacity utilisation and value addition.
“I believe that the success of the Dangote Refinery serves as an inspiration to all of us in the manufacturing sector. It demonstrates what is possible when we combine innovation, technology, and investment to create world-class facilities that benefit the entire nation,” he asserted.
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