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Kenya’s economy enters Africa’s top 10 after GDP rebasing
Kenya’s gross domestic product was estimated to be 25 percent bigger after the authorities changed the base calculation year to 2009 from 2001, sending the east African nation into the continent’s top 10 economies.
Economic output was calculated to be 4.76 trillion shillings ($53.4 billion) in 2013 after the rebasing, up from 3.8 trillion shillings ($42.6 billion), the minister for devolution and planning, Anne Waiguru, told a news conference on Tuesday.
That takes Kenya up to ninth in Africa’s GDP rankings from 12th, above Ghana, Tunisia and Ethiopia but below oil-producing Sudan based on a World Bank table for 2013.
The rebasing exercise means debt levels fall as a proportion of GDP, a closely watched ratio, and could give the government some leeway for more borrowing to help finance its plans to build new transport links and repair creaking infrastructure.
But revising the estimated size of GDP does not change Kenya’s ability to repay additional loans nor does it mean it has more income to spend on development in a nation where many people are poor, roads are potholed and power supply is scarce.
“This gives us a little bit of welcome breathing space … not an opportunity to open the cash register,” said public policy and economic analyst Robert Shaw.
As with other rebasings in Africa, the move takes into account structural and other economic changes, such as new technology, and updates the base year for prices.
Kenya’s GDP revision follows the far more dramatic rebasing earlier this year of Nigeria’s economy when it changed the base year from 1990 to 2010 and, as a result, vaulted above South Africa to become Africa’s biggest economy.
Kenya’s rebasing was less pronounced because the gap with 2001 and the new base year of 2009 was shorter.
Changes in assessing agriculture, manufacturing and real estate accounted for most of the GDP rise. Technology and related fields are now treated as a standalone sector, taking into account a vibrant industry in Kenya, which has pioneered mobile telephone payments systems and exported the idea across Africa and beyond.
The economy could also get a further boost in a few years when commercial oil production is expected to start.
With the rebasing, economic growth was revised to 5.7 percent in 2013, up from the previous estimate of 4.7 percent, a figure that had been below expectations and was partly blamed on a spate of militant attacks and a decline in tourism.
MIDDLE INCOME NATION
“The new numbers are credible and they constitute an important improvement in the economic and statistical knowledge base for Kenya,” Diariétou Gaye, the World Bank’s country director for Kenya, said, adding that a World Bank team joined other experts conducting a peer review of the rebasing exercise.
Based on a debt figure of 2.4 billion shillings released in August after Kenya’s heavily oversubscribed, maiden Eurobond, the debt-to-GDP ratio falls to about 50 percent from 57 percent previously, according to a Reuters calculation.
But economists said a lower ratio did not mean the government was any better positioned to take out more loans.
“Debt service capacity and export growth, neither of which is expected to be substantially revised, are much more important when it comes to being able to take on more debt,” Razia Khan, London-based Africa economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said before Tuesday’s announcement.
With a population of about 44 million people, the new GDP figure implies economic output per capita stands at more than $1,200. That would push Kenya onto the bottom rung of middle income states, according to the World Bank’s $1,045 to $12,746 band.
A higher income ranking means it might not benefit from some aid designed for the poorest countries, economists say.
Conversely, investors may be more attracted to a nation with a population that has more cash to spend, although many investors have already factored that into their calculations.
“If you look at the kind of investment flow already attracted by Kenya, the implicit assumption is that investors already treated it as a middle income country,” said Khan.
The new status and a bigger economy have no direct impact on the lives of ordinary Kenyans, who are frustrated by poor roads and services. “The potholes are still there,” said analyst Shaw.
BUSINESSDAY-
Nigeria’s public debt has climbed to ₦166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026, with financial analyst and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, warning that the country’s debt burden is approaching the 40 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) limit.
Rewane raised concerns over the increasing debt burden, stressing that the key issue is not simply the amount Nigeria owes but what the borrowed funds have been used to achieve.
“There is a fiscal responsibility that says we shouldn’t exceed 40% of GDP, ₦166 trillion is the limit,” Rewane said.
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“The question is not how much the debt is, it is what have you used the debt to acquire? We haven’t seen any corresponding increase in productivity yet and there is a cost of living and affordability crisis.”
He also warned that Nigeria’s debt per capita was already high and could not continue rising indefinitely.
“Nigeria’s debt per head is very high and cannot increase further,” he added.
The comments come as the latest figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO), as reported by Business A.M, showed that Nigeria’s public debt increased by ₦79.41 trillion in three years, rising from ₦87.38 trillion in June 2023 to ₦166.79 trillion by June 2026.
The latest figure represents a 90.9 per cent increase in the country’s public debt stock since June 2023.
On a year-on-year basis, public debt increased by ₦14.39 trillion, or 9.4 per cent, from ₦152.40 trillion in June 2025. It also rose by ₦7.44 trillion, or 4.7 per cent, from ₦159.35 trillion recorded in March 2026.
According to the report, domestic debt stood at ₦91.59 trillion, representing 54.91 per cent of total public debt, while external debt amounted to ₦75.20 trillion, or 45.09 per cent.
The Federal Government accounted for ₦152.77 trillion, representing about 91.6 per cent of the total public debt, while states and the Federal Capital Territory accounted for the remaining ₦14.01 trillion.
The rising debt stock has also been accompanied by increasing debt-servicing costs.
Federal Government domestic debt service rose to ₦3.14 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with ₦2.61 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025.
Interest payments accounted for most of the increase, rising by 25.4 per cent to ₦2.97 trillion during the period.
Rewane’s comments therefore place renewed focus on the economic returns from government borrowing, particularly whether borrowed funds are translating into higher productivity, stronger revenues and expanded productive capacity.
The concern has also been raised by other Nigerian economists and financial analysts, who have argued that borrowing should be linked to projects capable of generating economic returns and strengthening the government’s capacity to repay its obligations.
Kenyan President, William Samoei Ruto has described the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) as “a masterpiece of science, engineering and art”.
He made the declaration following a tour of the world-class facility in Lagos, while reaffirming Kenya’s commitment to partnering with the Dangote Group on the proposed $17 billion East African Oil Refinery and Petrochemical Complex in Lamu.
President Ruto visited the refinery after attending the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), noted that witnessing firsthand the scale, sophistication and operational excellence of the 700,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery had strengthened his confidence in the East African refinery project.
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“Coming here and seeing it for myself, I can confirm that I have seen a masterpiece of science, engineering, and art. To my brother Aliko, congratulations. I always knew Nigerians to be very brave people and go-getters, but I did not anticipate that it was at this scale,” President Ruto said.
The Kenyan leader disclosed that preparations had been concluded for the ground-breaking ceremony of the East African refinery project in Lamu, which is expected to become a strategic regional asset for East Africa.
According to him, the refinery will drive industrialisation, create jobs, strengthen engineering and technical capacity, enhance energy security and promote regional economic integration.
“This is not a Kenyan refinery; it is going to be a regional refinery. We are positioning our continent as an emerging growth centre, and this project will help accelerate industrialisation, create jobs, enhance engineering capabilities and strengthen Africa’s economic competitiveness,” he stated bureaucratic bottlenecks to ensure efficient project execution.
“The Government of Kenya is 100 percent behind this project. We have secured the required land and are working to ensure that we spend our time building rather than navigating administrative delays,” he said.
The President further commended the leadership and commitment of Dangote Group President and Chief Executive, Aliko Dangote, highlighting his deep understanding of the refinery’s technical and operational processes.
“The detail with which Aliko Dangote understands this plant is remarkable. Unless you understand the details, you are unable to make the right decisions. That commitment to excellence is one of the reasons behind the success of this project,” he added.
Dangote Group’s Chief Strategy Officer, Aliyu Suleiman, disclosed, during the visit that the conglomerate generated approximately $17 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026 and is on course to achieve a record $36 billion in revenue for the full year, representing a 100 per cent increase over the $18 billion recorded in 2025.
“The revenues of the Group have grown significantly over the last five years. From $18 billion last year, we are on track to get to $36 billion this year. Our half-year revenue is already about $17 billion,” Suleiman said.
He attributed the strong performance to sustained investments across key sectors, including cement, sugar, fertiliser, petroleum refining, upstream oil and gas, and other strategic businesses.
Suleiman noted that Dangote Group’s growth ambitions are anchored on its Vision 2030 Strategy, aimed at expanding the company’s industrial footprint across Africa and creating globally competitive businesses on the continent.
“Between 2020 and 2025, the Group executed a capital expenditure programme of approximately $50 billion. Over the next five years, we intend to invest twice that amount as we accelerate our expansion across Africa,” he stated.
Suleiman emphasised that the proposed 700,000 barrels-per-day greenfield refinery and petrochemical complex in Lamu, estimated at approximately $17 billion, will be a cornerstone of the Group’s ambition to build a $100 billion African industrial enterprise.
“The East African refinery in Kenya is going to be a key component of our journey and our dream to get to $100 billion. It is going to be a major contributor,” he said.
He added that Dangote Group’s expansion plans span a broad range of sectors, including port infrastructure, gas infrastructure, LNG, upstream oil and gas, power generation, mining and other strategic industrial investments across Africa.
As part of preparations for the project, Dangote Group has signed a contract worth more than $450 million with Engineers India Limited (EIL) to provide project management consultancy and engineering, procurement and construction management services for the Lamu refinery and petrochemical complex.
The partnership builds on EIL’s experience and involvement in the successful development of the DPRP in Lagos. Once completed, the East African refinery is expected to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, strengthening regional energy security and supporting industrial development across East Africa.
The Dangote Group is also progressing plans to expand the processing capacity of the DPRP in Nigeria from 700,000 barrels per day to approximately 1.4 million barrels per day through the addition of a new 750,000 barrels-per-day crude distillation unit.
The expansion is expected to further solidify Nigeria’s position as a leading exporter of refined petroleum products and enhance Africa’s energy self-sufficiency.
President Ruto’s visit and Dangote Group’s ambitious growth plans highlight the increasing impact of African-led investments in driving the continent’s industrial renaissance.
With record revenue growth, a robust investment pipeline, expansion of refining capacity in Nigeria and the planned development of the East African Oil Refinery in Kenya, Dangote Group is reinforcing its role as a key driver of Africa’s economic transformation, energy security, industrial development and regional integration.
Photo Caption: From Left – Kenya President, Dr. William Samoel Ruto; Group Vice President, Oil & Gas and Fertiliser, Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin; and President/CE, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote during the Kenya President’s Visit to Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Petrochemicals and Fertiliser Plant Lekki, Lagos on Friday 25th September 2026.
Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has called for stronger international investment partnerships as he pitched Lagos as a strategic gateway for global investment into Africa.
Sanwo-Olu made the call while speaking at the Global Africa Business Initiative’s Unstoppable Africa 2026 in New York, where global business leaders, investors, policymakers and heads of government gathered to discuss ways of strengthening African businesses and expanding the continent’s economies.
The 2026 edition of the event was held on September 20 and 21 at the New York Marriott Marquis, on the sidelines of the opening of the 81st United Nations General Assembly.
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The governor highlighted Lagos’ large population, expanding market, infrastructure needs, entrepreneurial ecosystem and strategic position as key factors that create opportunities for investors seeking to participate in Africa’s economic growth.
Sanwo-Olu stressed that Lagos’ growing global relevance should translate into tangible benefits for residents through investments in infrastructure, transportation, healthcare, enterprise development and other sectors.
He said the state remained open to international capital, strategic partnerships and private-sector participation, with the goal of building partnerships capable of delivering measurable economic value across Lagos.
According to the governor, Lagos is pursuing a development agenda that combines long-term economic growth with efforts to address the everyday needs of its residents while creating an environment where businesses can establish, expand and compete.
A key feature of the governor’s presentation was the promotion of Invest Lagos, the flagship investment promotion initiative of the Lagos State Ministry of Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment.
The engagement followed the successful Invest Lagos 3.0 summit held in Lagos in June under the theme, “Lagos: The Business Gateway to Africa.”
The summit brought together global investors, policymakers, development institutions and business leaders to explore opportunities in infrastructure, manufacturing, technology, trade, finance and the creative economy.
Sanwo-Olu’s participation at Unstoppable Africa 2026 further provided an international platform for Lagos to showcase its investment opportunities and seek partnerships aimed at attracting global capital to the state.
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