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Mixed Reactions To Tinubu’s Fuel Subsidy Removal, Forex Unification
President Bola Tinubu’s recent announcement regarding the removal of petrol subsidy and the unification of forex rates has garnered mixed reactions.
The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) responded by expressing skepticism, stating that they believe the President is merely testing the waters and lacks the determination to follow through with such actions.
In contrast, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), the Nigerian Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) expressed support for President Bola Tinubu’s recent proposals.
They argued that the President’s decision to leverage various fiscal measures to boost domestic manufacturing indicated a positive future for manufacturers. NACCIMA also commended the President’s economic plans, considering them as significant steps taken in the right direction.
Director General, MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, in an exclusive chat with Vanguard yesterday, however, added that the president’s speech would still be subjected to critical considerations by the group soonest.
His words: “It is, therefore, highly commendable and an assurance of better days ahead to hear the President saying that his industrial policy will utilize the full range of fiscal measures to promote domestic manufacturing and lessen import dependency.
“For me, this is a positive development. It is an unmistakable indication of a far-sighted strategic choice, one that is borne out of a deep reflection on the current inclement manufacturing environment and the need to stop the drift into inglorious de-industrialization of the Nigerian economy.
“What is most gratifying is that it came from the President from day one. The issues of multiple and often times punitive taxation; conflicting and contradictory fiscal and monetary policy measures; skewed and poor management of the foreign exchange regime and the long overdue stoppage of the fuel subsidy were addressed in the President’s speech and I believe they resonate with manufacturers in particular and the business community in general.
“A marching order is needed to move the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, towards a unified exchange rate.
“We also expect that, in line with his promise to enable a supportive fiscal policy regime, the President will order a reversal of the unwarranted violation of the government‘s three-year excise escalation roadmap on alcoholic beverages and tobacco. As we have shown, the latest hike as contained in the 2023 Fiscal Policy Measures is not only going to ruin the affected sectors, it will be counterproductive for government revenue in the near future.”
Meanwhile, the Director General, NACCIMA, Dr. Sola Obadimu, said some of the promises made by Tinubu on the economy in his inaugural speech were good steps in the right direction.
Obadimu stated: “They are good steps in the right direction. He spoke on the need to harmonize forex rates which is also good for probity and attracting foreign investment, and for the need to make it easier for foreign firms to repatriate their money. These are all very good.”
Reacting, President of Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, Joe Ajaero, in terse text said “The comment on fuel subsidy removal is not well thought out, coming as an inaugural speech.
“It is going to draw the economy of the country backward by over 50 percent within the next 48 hours. Nigerians will speak in one accord at the appropriate moment.”
In his reaction to subsidy removal, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the decision of President Tinubu to put an end to fuel subsidy had enormous potential benefits for the country.
He said: “We welcome the position of our new President Bola Tinubu on subsidy removal. Fuel subsidy removal has enormous potential benefits. First, there is the revenue effect. The removal would unlock about N7 trillion into the federation account. This would reduce fiscal deficit, and ultimately ease the burden of mounting debt.
“Second, is the investment effect. Currently, it is extremely difficult to attract private investment into our petroleum downstream sector because of the unsustainable subsidy regime and the stifling regulatory environment. The subsidy removal will eliminate the distortions and stimulate investment. We would see more private investments in petroleum refineries, petrochemicals and fertiliser plants. Post subsidy regime would also unlock investments in pipelines, storage facilities, transportation and retail outlets. We would see the export of refined petroleum products petrochemicals and fertiliser as private capital comes into the space, and quality jobs will be created.
Uche Uwaleke, a Professor of Capital Market and President of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria, joined the chorus of support for President Bola Tinubu’s proposal to eliminate fuel subsidy and unify the exchange rate. Uwaleke highlighted the significant economic burden that fuel subsidies impose on the country and expressed his belief that they are ultimately unsustainable. In light of this, he endorsed the removal of fuel subsidy as a necessary measure.
He said “I support the removal of the fuel subsidy due to its huge cost on the economy. Fuel subsidies have proven to be unsustainable.
“I equally support the unification of exchange rates because doing so will discourage round-tripping, bring more transparency to the foreign exchange (forex) market which supports foreign investments.
“However, in order to minimize negative impact on the livelihoods, issues of fuel subsidy and exchange rates unification which he mentioned in the speech should be handled with care. Stakeholder engagement is required,” he said. In his comments, Mr. David Adonri, Vice Chairman, Highcap Securities, said the plan, if carried out, would repair the damages caused to the economy by the twin problem.
He, however, queried Tinubu’s failure to address the rising debt burden, saying that a continuation of the borrowing spree would be detrimental to real economic growth.
He said: “President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s inaugural speech addressed three critical pressure points on the Nigerian economy. These are insecurity that has crippled the rural economy, discontinuation of fuel subsidy and unification of the exchange rate.
“His remedial plans against these challenges can repair their damages to the economy. However, he failed to address the crippling debt burden which has fueled inflation and caused a rise in interest rate.
“His GDP growth target of a minimum of 6% per annum could be a mirage if he concentrates on secondary infrastructure development at the expense of primary infrastructure like was done under President Muhammadu Buhari.”
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has banned the marketing and promotion of a purported initial public offering (IPO) by Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE, warning that no application for such an offer has been filed with or approved by the regulator.
This was detailed in a public notice on Tuesday, in which the Commission said it had become aware of advertisements, flyers, digital banners and targeted electronic mails circulating on social media platforms and investment channels concerning a supposed securities offering by the refinery.
The SEC expressed concern over the involvement of some Registered Capital Market Operators (CMOs) in what it described as an “unwholesome and manipulative exercise” of actively soliciting advance subscriptions for an offering that has not been presented to the Commission.
According to the regulator, “No application for the registration of an IPO or public offer of shares of the Refinery has been filed with or approved by the Commission.”
The Commission added that the ongoing pre-marketing activities were “capable of misleading investors, distorting market expectations, creating information asymmetry and generally undermining the integrity of the capital market.”
It further stated that the marketing campaign and invitations to “create accounts”, “pre-fund,” or “secure guaranteed allocations” amounted to market manipulation and constituted “serious violation of the Investments and Securities Act.”
Consequently, the Commission directed all Registered Capital Market Operators, particularly stockbrokers and digital platform promoters, to immediately stop all promotional activities.
The SEC ordered them to “cease with immediate effect from publishing, reposting, or distributing any promotional material, flyer, or commentary relating to the acquisition or allocation of shares in the Refinery.”
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It also directed operators to “remove or take down all such unauthorized marketing materials from websites, social media handles (including X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook etc.), and messaging groups within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”
The regulator further instructed operators to desist from accepting deposits, commitments, account openings or expressions of interest from investors for the purported public offering and to “reverse and refund all funds already collected in connection with this purported offering to clients within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”
The Commission warned that defaulters would face sanctions as non-compliance would attract penalties under the Investments and Securities Act, 2025 and the SEC Rules and Regulations.
Advising investors to exercise caution, the SEC said members of the public should “rely only on formal, official pronouncements issued directly by the Commission through its official channels.”
It warned that “all such high-pressure marketing tactics, or transfer of funds to any operator for ‘pre-IPO’ placement should be ignored as they did not receive the Commission’s approval.”
The Commission assured that if it eventually receives and clears an application for a public offering by the refinery, an approved prospectus would be made available to investors in line with the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.
In a move aimed at preventing potential supply shortages in the domestic market, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), has approved fresh imports of petrol and diesel for Q3 2026.
This was gleaned from a report by global energy intelligence firm Argus Media, published on Tuesday.
Citing regulatory and industry sources, the report stated that the latest approvals were issued to major downstream operators amid declining fuel stock levels and concerns over reduced gasoline production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP).
The move comes as Nigeria continues to balance increasing local refining capacity with the need to guarantee adequate supplies of petroleum products across the country.
According to the Argus report, domestic firms including AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono Energy, Nipco, Matrix Energy and Pinnacle Oil received permits to import Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, during the July-September period.
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The publication further reported that the same companies, with the exception of Nipco, were granted approvals to import Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel.
The fresh approvals follow an earlier batch of petrol import permits issued by the regulator in May, covering about 720,000 metric tonnes.
Quoting a regulatory source, Argus reported that many of the companies granted the latest approvals were among those that had received permits in previous rounds. “These are some of the same ones that previously received the PMS permits,” the source was quoted as saying.
According to sources cited by the publication, AA Rano and Matrix Energy each received approvals to import 180,000 metric tonnes of petrol. AYM Shafa received approval for 120,000 metric tonnes, while Pinnacle Oil received a permit covering 150,000 metric tonnes.
For diesel imports, Argus reported that AYM Shafa obtained a permit for 60,000 metric tonnes, while Pinnacle secured approval for 45,000 metric tonnes. The report stated that the import approvals were issued only recently after being delayed from an initial target date of June 15.
The report read, “The Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has issued clean product import permits for July to address supply shortages, according to sources. Domestic firms AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono, Nipco, Matrix and Pinnacle received gasoline import permits, while the same companies – minus Nipco – received gasoil import permits for the third quarter, sources said.
“The recipients are some of the same ones that [previously] received the PMS [gasoline] permits,” according to a regulatory source. A regulatory source quoted by the publication said the permits were approved to forestall projected supply gaps in the country’s fuel market.
“The permits were issued to head off projected shortfalls in supply”, the source said. “Issuance is still ongoing, so the final volume cannot be determined right now. But gasoline permits will likely be above 800,000T”, the source continued.
If achieved, the projected volume would exceed the total quantity approved under the second-quarter import programme. The approvals come at a time when fuel inventories are showing signs of tightening.
According to data referenced by Argus, petrol stock sufficiency in Nigeria declined by 1.7 days to 16 days in May, while diesel stock sufficiency dropped by eight days to 31 days during the same period. Such declines often prompt regulators to take precautionary measures to ensure uninterrupted supply across the country.
The report linked the reduction in stock levels to lower gasoline production at the DPRP Lekki, Lagos.
According to figures cited by Argus, gasoline production at the refinery fell by 16 percent to 44.7 million litres per day, while diesel production increased by four per cent to 24.5 million litres daily.
Market participants quoted in the report attributed the drop in petrol output to maintenance activities on the refinery’s Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker, one of its major gasoline-producing units.
Argus reported that a source close to the refinery described suggestions linking increased exports of low-sulphur straight-run fuel oil and the maintenance programme as “partially correct” but declined to provide additional details.
The report also noted that recent movements in international fuel prices could make imports more attractive to independent marketers.
Argus said front-month Eurobob oxy swaps, increasingly used as the benchmark for gasoline trade in West Africa, averaged $946.25 per tonne in June, down from $1,128.50 per tonne during the corresponding period in May.
Similarly, offshore Lomé ship-to-ship diesel prices averaged $1,093.50 per tonne in June, compared to $1,409.25 per tonne in May. The lower international prices are expected to improve import economics for marketers seeking to supplement domestic supply.
Despite the availability of import permits, however, the report suggested that marketers may not fully utilise all approved volumes.
According to preliminary vessel-tracking data from Kpler cited by Argus, independent marketers are expected to import about 354,000 metric tonnes of petrol during the current quarter.
The figure is substantially lower than the 720,000 metric tonnes approved under the second-quarter permit programme. The sources attributed the gap partly to the timing of the approvals, noting that marketers had limited time to execute import plans because the permits were issued midway through the quarter.
In the background of reports of Nigerian fuel marketers re-importing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) processed products through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lomé, official trade data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Togo imported up to N105 billion worth of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from Nigeria.
The export figure was contained in the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Foreign Trade Statistics Report for the first quarter of 2026. According to the report, PMS ranked among Nigeria’s major petroleum exports to the neighbouring country during the period.
The development highlights a dramatic shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, which for years depended heavily on imported petrol due to inadequate domestic refining capacity.
Nigeria imported approximately $117m worth of petroleum oils (petrol/refined products) from Togo in 2023, and $72–77m in 2024.
It was gathered from the report that 2026 Q1 petrol exports to Togo were valued at N105.50bn, making the product one of the most significant energy commodities shipped from Nigeria to the West African nation.
The data further showed that gas oil exports to Togo stood at N278.36bn, while kerosene-type jet fuel exports were valued at N273.18bn. Crude petroleum oil exports amounted to N220.14bn, while partially refined oil, including crude oil that had undergone primary refinement, was valued at N89.83bn.
The emergence of petrol as a major export commodity follows the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has significantly increased the country’s refining output and transformed fuel supply dynamics within the sub-region.
The latest figures come amid revelations that petroleum products refined by the DPRP are increasingly dominating fuel movements across West Africa, with Togo’s offshore trading hub in Lomé playing a strategic role in regional distribution.
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An official of S&P Global Commodity Insights, Matthew Tracey-Cook, last Thursday disclosed that Nigerian fuel marketers have been importing refined petroleum products originating from the DPRP through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lomé, Togo.
Speaking during a webinar organised by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, Tracey-Cook said Dangote-produced fuel now accounts for the majority of waterborne petroleum products imported into Nigeria.
“Dangote volumes on a coastal basis do arrive back in Lagos from Lomé. Over the last six months, if you look at the volume of products on a waterborne basis that’s imported directly into Nigeria, Dangote production has become increasingly dominant,” he stated.
Providing further insight into the changing regional trade pattern, he added, “For several months, from March until May, we saw well over 70 to 80 per cent of the volumes that were imported into Nigeria actually originated from Dangote; from their coastal Dangote volumes which were re-imported.”
According to him, similar trends have emerged in the diesel market, reflecting the refinery’s growing influence on fuel movements within the region.
“The increasing importance of the Dangote Refinery in terms of product that’s flowing into Nigeria is really evident from the data,” Tracey-Cook said.
He explained that despite growing direct coastal deliveries from the refinery, the Lomé offshore hub remains a critical component of West Africa’s fuel logistics chain.
According to him, the facility allows large tankers to discharge cargoes offshore before transferring products to smaller vessels capable of accessing ports across the region.
“Lomé has become an increasingly important transshipment hub for filling regional shortages across the region. It serves an important purpose, given that many ports in West Africa don’t have the capacity to take a fully laden medium-range vessel,” he stated.
The NBS figures suggest that Nigeria is gradually consolidating its position as a regional supplier of refined petroleum products following decades of fuel import dependence.
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