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Naira gains, sells for 284/dollar at official market, CBN’s intervention not sustainable, say analysts

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Yemie ADEOYE

LAGOS-THE naira gained on the second day of trading at the new interbank market as it closed at 284.83 against the United States dollar on the back of further intervention from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The local currency had on Monday plunged to 288.8 to the greenback compared to a peg of 197 to 199, which the CBN had maintained in the 16 months to June 20 before allowing the naira to float freely.

DOLLARSThe central bank intervened on Tuesday to sell dollars at the interbank market after floating the naira failed to attract trading between banks due to liquidity concerns, Reuters quoted traders as saying.

A total of $31m, sold between N282 and N285 per dollar, was done around 12pm, which traders said was an intervention by the central bank. The interbank market quoted the total traded volume at $73m.

The naira firmed to 281 after the dollar sales, recovering from a low of 287 it touched earlier on Tuesday.

On Monday, the CBN said it cleared a total foreign exchange demand backlog of $4bn, with a dollar exchanging for N280 at the foreign exchange market.

The Chief Executive Officer, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, said in a telephone interview with our correspondent, “For you to have an appreciating currency, the state of supply sources must be quite strong. Today, the central bank is virtually the sole supplier in the primary segment of the market. Until the other sources develop, then the naira will continue to be under pressure.

“When naira liquidity reduces, the pressure will moderate. Naira liquidity will reduce when the $4bn that they claimed they have met is withdrawn from the system. It is about N1.3tn and that is about the liquidity that has been pursuing forex. So, you are going to see a moderation in demand.”

He added, “In the immediate term, you are going to see continuous volatility and possible depreciation of the naira; in the medium term, we may see stability; and then in the long term, we will see appreciation.

“Clearly, it is not a sustainable approach because the central bank does not have a limitless war chest to continue to intervene.”

The Chief Executive Officer, Chapel Hill Denham, a Lagos-based investment bank, Mr. Bolaji Balogun, said it would take awhile for the market to settle, considering that the backlog of forex demand had built up in recent months.

He said, “This is something that the central bank should have done six months ago. By now, the backlog would have been cleared. By delaying so long, the backlog builds up and you have much more to clear. We must clear that backlog.

“Investors are going to watch the market and gradually deep their toes back into the market. An investor who had $500m to $600m here is not going to bring it back at once. They will make sure that the market is working before they will bring in big money.”

Describing recent developments in the interbank market as the start of a positive direction, Balogun said the central bank might also have to tighten money supply, which meant that interest rate would go up.

The central bank, which has seen its reserves fall to more than 10-year low of $26.4bn, will struggle to keep intervening on a large scale to defend the currency, according to the UBS Wealth Management.

“They can’t do this for months. We could see further pressure on the naira and it may depreciate to about 300 per dollar,” Bloomberg quoted Jonas David, a Zurich-based emerging-markets analyst at UBS Wealth Management to have said.

PUNCH-

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Business

Nigeria pays US$4.9 billion on petrol subsidy in 2024- NNPCL

It was however noted by Biztellers.com.ng, that although subsidy is back in effect, the main reason for that is the increasingly weak state of the Naira and the country’s extreme dependence on products importation. Also unlike the previous subsidy era, where several oil marketers were getting free subsidy refunds for unverified product importation, this subsidy era is witnessing only one importer, the NNPCL, which in effect is the sole receiver of government subsidies. 

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Yemie ADEOYE

INSPITE of the official position of the Nigerian government that the controversial petrol subsidy is gone for good as announced by the President on assumption of office, the state owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, NNPCL has disclosed that petrol subsidy is still fully operational in Nigeria, although, under a different identity.

Umar Ajiya, Chief Financial Officer at the NNPCL, disclosed that it cost the company a staggering N7.8 trillion (US$4.9) to cover this price gap in the first seven months of 2024.

Rather than simply referring to these claims as subsidies, he stated that the company is merely managing the price difference in petrol imports on behalf of the federation, stressing that this should not be misconstrued as a return to subsidy payments.

This revelation has reignited discussions on whether the NNPC is indirectly offering subsidies, a concept typically defined as selling a product below its cost price.

Documents reviewed by Biztellers.com.ng showed that the term “subsidy” was used extensively in official correspondence between the NNPCL and the presidency, particularly in reference to the “shortfall.”

Recall that President Bola Tinubu reportedly approved NNPC’s request to utilize the 2023 final dividends due to the federation to offset these costs.

However, during a media briefing on Monday about the company’s 2023 audited financial statements, Ajiya refuted claims that the NNPC is involved in any subsidy scheme.

Ajiya further disclosed that the Nigerian government owes the NNPC N7.8 trillion ($4.9 billion) in subsidy-related debts for the period from January to July 2024.

In furtherance of his clarification to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), Ajiya insisted that no subsidy payments have been made to any marketer in the last nine years, citing the NNPC’s role as the sole importer of petrol under supply contracts.

He said, “In the last eight to nine years, NNPC Ltd. has not paid anyone a dime as a subsidy; no kobo has been disbursed by NNPC Ltd. in the name of subsidy. No marketer has received any payment from us for subsidy.”

“What has been happening is that we have been importing PMS, which has been landing at a specific cost price, and the government tells us to sell it at half price. So the difference between the landing price and that half price is a shortfall.

“And the deal is between the Federation and NNPC Ltd., to reconcile, sometimes they give us money, so there is no money exchanging hands with any marketer in the name of subsidy.”

Ajiya remained silent on how much of the $4.9 billion could have been remitted to the federation account if the NNPC had not been covering the “shortfall.”

It was however noted by Biztellers.com.ng, that although subsidy is back in effect, the main reason for that is the increasingly weak state of the Naira and the country’s extreme dependence on products importation. Also unlike the previous subsidy era, where several oil marketers were getting free subsidy refunds for unverified product importation, this subsidy era is witnessing only one importer, the NNPCL, which in effect is the sole receiver of government subsidies.

 

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Banking

CBN Denies Currency Devaluation

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CBN Pegs Interest Rate at 14%

 

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has refuted claims of devaluing the.

 

Earlier reports suggested that the CBN had devalued the Naira, lowering its exchange rate from N631 to the dollar, compared to the previous day’s rate of N461.60 at the Importers and Exporters (I&E) window.

 

However, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) released a statement on Thursday through its Acting Head of Corporate Communications, Dr. Isa Abdulmumin, categorizing the report as false information.

 

In the statement titled ‘CBN Has Not Devalued The Naira’, he said the attention of the apex bank was drawn to the news report by an Abuja based newspaper edition of June 1, 2023, titled “CB Devalues Naira To 630/51”.

 

However, the CBN stated categorically that the news report was replete with outright FALSEHOODS and destabilizing innuendos, ‘reflecting potentially willful ignorance of the said medium as to the workings of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market.’

 

“For the avoidance of doubt, the exchange rate at the Investors’ & Exporters (I&E) window traded this morning (June 1, 2023) at N465/USS1 and has been stable around this rate for a while.

 

“The public is hereby advised to ignore the news report by Daily Trust in its entirety, as it is speculative and calculated at causing panic in the market,” the CBN spokesman added.

 

He, therefore, advised media practitioners to verify their facts from the Central Bank of Nigeria before publishing in order not to misinform the public.

 

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Banking

BREAKING: CBN Increases Interest Rate By 0.5%

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CBN Pegs Interest Rate at 14%

 

The interest rate in Nigeria has been raised to 18.5 percent, up by 0.5 percent, from 18 percent where it was pegged in March 2023.

 

The Central Banks of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resolved to this effect at its third meeting of 2023 in Abuja, on Wednesday.

 

Governor, CBN, Godwin Emefiele, made the disclosure in the communiqué of the MPC’s meeting,  thereafter.

 

While engaging the media at the end of the two-day meeting, Emefiele, said the committee voted to keep the asymmetric corridor at +100 and -700 basis points around the MPR.

 

In the view of the MPC, rising inflation rate is traceable to the high energy cost and challenges around the supply chain, among others, which lie outside the corridors of the CBN.

 

Emefiele said, “The current trend in price development would continue to be monitored by the bank with greater collaboration with fiscal authority to address the drivers of inflation.”

 

Biztellers reports that the CBN had effected six consecutive interest rate increases, which has seen the rate move from 11.5 percent in March 2022 to 18.5 percent in May 2023.

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