Stakeholders in the oil and gas sector have welcomed the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) projection that Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector is to attract between $30 billion and $50 billion in offshore investments between 2026 and 2030.

According to the Commission, the investment pipeline will be driven by 22 major offshore projects expected to boost crude oil production, create jobs, expand energy infrastructure, and strengthen the country’s energy security.

They believe that achieving these milestones will require peace and stability in the Niger Delta and protection of national assets, especially oil pipelines through Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL) operations.

Nigeria is determined to achieve $30 billion and $50 billion in offshore investments between 2026 and 2030 is real, according to the (NUPRC).

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The NUPRC attributed the improved outlook to reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), improved licensing transparency, and faster project approvals.

Since 2024, the regulator has approved more than $57 billion in Field Development Plans (FDP), with several projects already progressing to Final Investment Decisions (FID).

The Commission also said preparations for the 2026 Licensing Round are underway as it seeks to attract further investment into Nigeria’s upstream sector. The planned projects are expected to support the government’s target of increasing crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030.

Gaining the oil sector backing in this milestone journey requires more than policy pronouncements from the NUPRC.

It requires investment drive, attractiveness to global energy markets and support of domestic players in the industry.

President General, Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Victor Udoh, said to effectively harness the oil revenue requires that the Niger Delta, a region severally described as the goose that lays the golden eggs, must also be at peace and oil infrastructure across the region well secured.

He explained that it is where the Federal Government of Nigeria’s appointment of the TSSNL to protect oil assets and ensure peace and stability in the Niger Delta comes to play.

He added that the singular act will contribute positively to achieving $30 billion and $50 billion in offshore investments between 2026 and 2030, as predicted by the NUPRC.

The desire for a transparent investment framework offering hopes of unlocking up to $50 billion in deep offshore investment and restarting Nigeria’s large, capital-intensive offshore developments that have been stalled for long has seen President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sanction a landmark reform that replaces project-by-project negotiations.

According to a statement issued by presidential spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, the reform establishes a transparent, rules-based investment framework capable of supporting the next generation of deep offshore developments, beginning with the approximately $10 billion Bonga South West project, while strengthening Nigeria’s competitiveness for globally mobile investment capital.

The decision, the statement said, builds on Tinubu’s engagement with the Chief Executive Officer of Shell PLC, Wael Sawan, during which the President directed the development of the next wave of measures required to unlock Nigeria’s deep offshore investment pipeline.

Rather than pursuing project-specific solutions, the federal government transformed that directive into a comprehensive investment framework applicable across multiple categories of qualifying developments, it said.

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Given effect through the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, the framework replaces project-by-project negotiations with transparent eligibility criteria, clear implementation processes and a durable investment architecture that provides greater certainty for investors while safeguarding long-term national value.

The approval also enables the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), as the government’s nominated counterparty under the Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) to proceed with the necessary amendments to eligible PSCs required to implement the framework.

Tinubu commended the Federal Ministry of Justice, the Federal Ministry of Finance, the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), the NNPC Limited, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), investing partners and other industry stakeholders whose collaboration, technical expertise and commitment helped shape the framework.

Tinubu said: “The countries that attract long-term investment are not necessarily those with the greatest natural resources. They are the ones that provide the greatest certainty. This reform reflects our determination to build an investment environment defined by clear rules, strong institutions and enduring partnerships.

“We are creating the conditions for capital to flow, for Nigerian businesses to grow, for our people to prosper and for our natural resources to deliver lasting national value.”

Oil companies operating in Nigeria risk up to five percent of annual operating turnover in penalties on being found guilty of serious anti-competitive practices if a brewing industry regulation sees the light of day.

According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the arm of the government championing this strategy, this would apply to breaches in both the midstream and downstream sectors.

The strategy is contained in the draft regulations of the proposed Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Prevention of Anti-Competitive Practices and Behaviour Regulations, 2026.

Under the proposed regulations, companies involved in breaches such as price-fixing, bid-rigging, market allocation, abuse of market dominance and other conduct capable of causing significant harm to competition could be fined between three and five percent of their annual turnover.

Persistent or serious offenders may also have their licences suspended or revoked, while the Authority may impose daily penalties on operators that fail to comply with its orders or continue prohibited conduct after being directed to stop.

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The draft regulation states, “Where the Authority determines, after investigation and due process, that a licensee or any other person has engaged in anti-competitive conduct or breached any provision of this Regulation or the Act, it may impose administrative fines as provided herein.”

It further states, “The maximum administrative fine shall not exceed five per cent of the annual turnover of the offending undertaking for the preceding financial year.

“For purposes of these regulations, ‘annual turnover’ means gross revenues or sales derived from the regulated business activities in Nigeria. Where multiple entities or group structures are involved, the Authority may consider the turnover of the group, subsidiary, or segment most directly involved in the infringement.”

The proposed framework classifies competition infringements into three categories, with Category A covering severe offences, Category B moderate offences and Category C minor or technical breaches.

Category A offences attract indicative fines of between three and five per cent of annual turnover. They include cartel agreements involving price-fixing, bid-rigging and market allocation, as well as abuse of dominance with foreclosure effects, such as predatory pricing and refusal to supply an essential facility.

Aggravating factors would include repeat offending, obstructing an investigation, having a large market share or causing significant harm to the market. Mitigating factors include voluntary self-reporting, cooperation beyond legal obligations, early termination of prohibited conduct and an established compliance programme.

Category B offences attract fines of between one and three per cent of annual turnover and include exclusive dealing without clear foreclosure, tying or bundling with minor market harm and unfair discrimination between trading partners.

Category C offences could attract fixed penalties ranging from N5m to N50m or less than one per cent of turnover. These include failure to submit required competition reports, delays in submitting compliance reports and inadvertent data omissions or misstatements.

An operator that fails to comply with a final cease-and-desist order could face a daily penalty of between N5m and N25m until compliance is achieved. The proposed rules provide, “Where a licensee or person fails to comply with an order or directive of the Authority, a daily penalty may be imposed for each day the violation continues.”

Where a prohibited practice continues after a final order, the daily penalty could rise to between N10m and N50m. Before imposing a fine, the NMDPRA would issue a Notice of Intention to Fine setting out the facts and findings, the nature of the infringement, the basis for calculating the proposed fine and the proposed deadline for payment.

The affected operator would have at least 30 days to make written representations or request a hearing.

It states, “Before imposing a fine, the Authority shall issue a Notice of Intention to Fine, specifying: (a) The facts, findings, and nature of the infringement; (b) The basis for the proposed fine, including its calculation; and (c) The proposed deadline for payment. The respondent shall be granted no fewer than 30 days to make written representations or request a hearing.”

The proposed framework also extends accountability to individuals who knowingly participate in serious anti-competitive practices. Directors, managers and officers could face personal sanctions, including referral to the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) for personal liability under the FCCPC Act.

Persistent or serious violations could also result in the suspension or revocation of an operator’s licence or permit. Operators would generally be required to pay penalties within 30 days of a Final Penalty Order (FPO). The framework preserves the right to appeal, while unpaid fines would constitute debts recoverable by the Authority.

Meanwhile, stakeholders and operators have up to 21 days to submit comments, approval or objection on the proposed regulations, in compliance with Section 216(1) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which requires stakeholder consultation before regulations are finalised.