Connect with us

Business

Nigeria Earns N55.5tn From Crude Oil Sales in 2025

Published

on

Nigeria Earns N12.4tn from Crude Oil in 11 Months – Report

Nigeria earned an average of N55.5tn from crude oil sales in 2025, an analysis of official production figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and crude price data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria has shown.

The 2025 figure is higher when compared to the N50.88tn earned in 2024.

NUPRC data indicate that Nigeria produced a total of 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025, with output fluctuating throughout the year amid outages, operational disruptions, and a gradual recovery in some producing fields.

The N55.5tn was obtained by multiplying 530.41 million barrels by the average crude oil price of $72.08 in 2025, and converting the result with N1,450 to a dollar.

ALSO READ: NLNG Unveils New Visual Identities for the Nigeria Prizes

Crude oil production opened the year strongly at 47.70 million barrels in January, before falling to 41.02 million barrels in February. Output recovered modestly in March to 43.42 million barrels and rose further in April to 44.57 million barrels. Production remained relatively stable through the second quarter, increasing slightly to 45.04 million barrels in May and 45.16 million barrels in June.

In the third quarter, crude output climbed to 46.73 million barrels in July, but dipped again in August to 44.47 million barrels and fell further in September to 41.69 million barrels, one of the lowest levels recorded during the year. Production rebounded in the final quarter, reaching 43.44 million barrels in October, 43.08 million barrels in November, and 44.08 million barrels in December, according to the NUPRC.

While output remained below Nigeria’s OPEC quota for most of the year, crude oil prices helped support revenue. Data from the CBN show that Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, traded at elevated levels in the early part of the year before easing in the second quarter.

Bonny Light crude sold at an average of $80.76 per barrel in January 2025, before declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. Prices dropped further in April to $69.07 and reached a low of $65.90 in May, reflecting softer global oil market conditions.

Prices recovered in June to $73.50 and remained largely stable in the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September, before falling again to $66.15 in October, the latest month for which CBN data were available.

Using the simple average of the 10 monthly Bonny Light prices published by the CBN, crude prices averaged $72.08 per barrel over the period under review.

Applying this average price to Nigeria’s total crude oil production of 530.41 million barrels, estimated gross crude oil revenue for 2025 stood at approximately $38.23bn. Converted at an exchange rate of N1,450 to the dollar, this translates to about N55.5tn in crude oil earnings for the year.

Industry analysts noted that the figure represents gross revenue, not actual government receipts, as it does not account for production costs, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recovery, oil theft, domestic crude supply obligations, or deferred liftings.

Nonetheless, the analysis provides a clear picture of the scale of crude oil inflows generated during the year, based strictly on official production data from the NUPRC and price benchmarks from the CBN, highlighting the continued importance of both output stability and price performance to Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.

It should be noted that the N55tn was the amount expected to have been generated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, the international oil companies, and their indigenous counterparts for the sale of crude produced in Nigeria.
In 2024, it was noted that Nigeria produced 408.68 million barrels of crude oil, generating approximately N50.88tn.

Crude for Loan

The PUNCH reports that the government-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited serviced part of its $3bn forward-sale loan from the African Export-Import Bank with crude oil worth N991bn in 2024.

According to its 2024 financial statement report, the repayment was tied to Project Gazelle, a forward crude oil supply agreement signed in 2023.

On August 17, 2023, The PUNCH reported that the NNPC announced it had secured a $3.3bn emergency loan to repay crude oil obligations from Afreximbank. It explained that the loan would be used by the oil company to support the Federal Government in stabilising Nigeria’s exchange rate.

Under the deal, NNPC committed to deliver 90,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Production Sharing Contract assets to back a funding facility. According to the 2023 financial statement, a drawdown of $2.25bn had already been achieved by 31st December 2023, with principal repayment scheduled to begin in June 2024.

The funding carried an interest rate of 3-month LIBOR plus 6.5 per cent, with a 6 per cent margin and 0.5 per cent liquidity premium. According to the financial statement, the drawdown on the facility had reached N4.9tn out of a total available N5.1tn, while N991bn worth of crude oil had been lifted in repayment, leaving an outstanding balance of N3.8tn at the end of 2024.

It could not be ascertained yet how much crude the NNPC committed to the repayment of the N3.8tn outstanding loan in the whole of 2025.

OPEC Quota

It was reported that Nigeria’s crude oil output dipped in December 2025 by 14,000 barrels per day, defying government efforts to ramp up production.

According to data from NUPRC, instead of rising to meet the 1.5 million barrels per day quota set for Nigeria by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, crude oil production fell from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December, representing 95 per cent of the OPEC quota.

The data show that in 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. A review of the average daily crude oil output indicates that Nigeria opened the year strongly, producing 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 bpd above its OPEC allocation.

Output, however, dipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened further in March, when production averaged 1.40 mbpd, representing one of the widest shortfalls of the year.

Although output recovered modestly in April (1.49 mbpd) and May (1.45 mbpd), Nigeria remained under its OPEC ceiling until June, when crude production edged up to 1.51 mbpd, marginally exceeding the quota.

The country sustained this momentum in July, producing 1.51 mbpd, before slipping back below the threshold in the following months.

Production declined notably in the third quarter, averaging 1.43 mbpd in August and falling to a yearly low of 1.39 mbpd in September, leaving a deficit of more than 110,000 barrels per day against the OPEC target.

The NUPRC data reveal that output remained subdued in the final quarter, with daily crude production standing at 1.40 mbpd in October, 1.436 mbpd in November, and 1.422 mbpd in December.

Missed Target

In the 2025 budget, Nigeria planned to produce at least 2.1 million barrels of oil (crude oil and condensate) per day. This would amount to 766.5 million barrels if multiplied by the 365 days in the year.

However, in the whole of 2025, the country struggled to pump 599.64 million barrels of oil — 530.41mb of crude and 69.23mb of condensate. This means the country was 166.86 million barrels below its oil production target in 2025.

As a result, the 2026 benchmarks for oil were seen to be deliberately conservative to account for uncertainties in the global oil market and ongoing domestic challenges, including security issues and infrastructure constraints affecting crude oil production.

Instead of the ambitious 2.1 million barrels for 2025, the 2026 revenue estimate is anchored on a daily production of 1.84 million barrels, a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

Experts Speak

A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, said the crude production volume is dependent on several factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the government itself.

According to him, the government can deploy resources towards oil exploration, but the overall impact depends on technical cooperation by partners, the joint ventures, happenings in the global oil market, and the environmental conditions, among others.

Ajibola maintained that the Nigerian situation is somehow complex, as the key agency in charge, the NNPC, has been enmeshed in controversies over the period.

The don stated that of particular concern are the unsettled problems in host communities, incessant pipeline vandalisation, activities of bunkerers with alleged loss of about 30 per cent of potent production annually, the state of insecurity in the country, corruption in high places, and others.

Ajibola submitted, “The government can be more decisive in addressing those problems that are right on its table to jack up production levels and meet planned targets. It does not appear that the government is doing enough at the moment.”

Speaking, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, remarked that oil production has suffered from two major limitations or challenges—the challenges of insecurity and policy, saying those are the two factors that have affected investment in oil exploration and exploitation in the upstream sector.

“On insecurity, the government has committed a lot of resources to protect pipelines and protect investors, and we can see some results, but we are not exactly where we should be. So, insecurity is still a kind of issue affecting oil production. The government continues to commit resources to tackle insecurity; it engaged private community-based security agencies to support the efforts of the military. Some progress has been made, but we are not yet where we expect to be,” he stressed.

Yusuf stressed the challenge of policy, adding that it took the country a long time to come up with the Petroleum Industry Act, and even the act itself still requires some fine-tuning.

“So there is still the need to review the fiscal terms to encourage more investors to come because attracting capital to the oil sector is a very competitive thing. We are competing with many other oil-producing countries that are offering far better incentives to investors.

“The good news is that the President has committed to attracting those investors into the oil sector. The latest we saw in this regard was the meeting between the President and the Global Executive of Shell, where a promise of $20bn investment was made.

“So these are the kind of things that we expect to see. If we see more of these, we are likely to see more investments in oil production. So it’s a question of improving the fiscal terms, ensuring policy sustainability and stability, so that the problem of uncertainty or unpredictability will no longer be there. We should ensure we have security of investments and assets of investors in the Niger Delta,” Yusuf stressed.

A professor of energy, Dayo Ayoade, said the government knows what to do to ramp up oil production.

“If you want to fix production targets in the oil and gas industry, you have to ensure that you have good governance in the sector. Your sector must have a well-implemented programme. You must adhere to your own laws. And when you do this, you boost confidence among your investors, and then the investors would want to bring in their US dollars to invest in your country. If you don’t do this, then that could be a problem,” Ayoade said.

He posited that there’s still the issue of oil, even though the government no longer makes much noise about it.

Despite the N55.5tn made in 2025, the don said, “The facts are that there are reasons why we’re not producing enough. You have to give people the confidence to invest over the long term. What has happened to the fact that we’ve successfully ended oil theft because we don’t talk about it anymore? Was that the case? No more pipeline breaches?

“What about the cost of production in Nigeria? I think it’s one of the highest in the world. The cost of doing business in Nigeria is very high. You can’t compare it to any of our competitors. So, we still have a very long way to go. I think that if the government wants to achieve its 2026 oil targets, it must address the cost of doing business in the oil industry,” he added.

The professor commended the government for some of the recent investment decisions.

“There are lots of good things also. I don’t want to be too negative. I think there are lots of good things the government has done that will take time to achieve its objectives. For instance, Shell’s continuing huge investments into Bonga will be highly profitable; that will increase our numbers, helping our indigenous producers open up marginal fields and get to production quickly.

“All those sitting on oil wells and sitting on licences should show the government their work programmes. If you don’t do your work programme effectively, we’ll remove the lock from you and give it to someone else. So, there are good things also. It’s not all bad news. But the government can do more to ensure that we meet our targets,” he said.

Business

Police Ponder Dangote Refinery Equities

Published

on

Stop Tagging Us To Iwo Ritual Killings, Investigate To Nab Culprits – Group Tells Police

The opportunity of owning equities in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) is becoming irresistible, even among pension fund custodians and administrators.

It has emerged that the Nigeria Police Force Pensions Limited (NPFPL) is seriously looking into investment in the ongoing Initial Public Offering (IPO) as part of efforts to diversify its portfolio and sustain returns for police personnel and retirees.

The Acting Managing Director of NPF Pensions, Muhammed Dutse, offered insights on this in Abuja on Monday during activities marking the 2026 Customer Service Week (CSW).

READ ALSO: Ndindi Nyoro Gives Ruto 14 Days to Disclose Dangote Refinery Deal

Dutse said the pension fund administrator was exploring alternative investment opportunities as declining interest rates could affect returns from traditional fixed-income and bank instruments.

“As you can see recently, there’s a lot of hype around Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals. So, we also look up to that as well,” he said.

He explained that the company’s investment strategy would combine equities with private equity, infrastructure funds and other alternative assets rather than depend heavily on returns from bank deposits.

“There are private equity funds, there are infrastructure funds, there are so many investment windows, alternative investments that we can harness to get good returns,” Dutse said.

He added that the company was also assessing opportunities in the stock market, including shares of large Nigerian companies, as part of efforts to protect pension assets and generate competitive returns.

The comments come amid growing interest in investment opportunities around the DPRP, following moves to broaden ownership of the multibillion-dollar facility.

Dutse said the diversification strategy had become particularly important following changes in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy stance, which could affect yields available to pension fund administrators.

According to him, NPFPL would increasingly consider opportunities in infrastructure, private equity and the energy sector to strengthen its investment position.

He stated, “Our strategy is a combination of all these instruments in place. We just don’t rely on what banks give us.

“The good thing about this government is that they have opened up opportunities for investment. So, you see a lot of investment opportunities springing up, like I mentioned earlier, infrastructure funds, private equity funds and, especially, in the areas of energy.”

Dutse said NPFPL had recorded an average annual return of about 23 to 24 percent over the past five years, with returns approaching 37 percent in one of the years.

He said the PFA had developed strategies aimed at maintaining its investment performance despite changes in financial market conditions.

“Clearly, we have worked out some strategies to ensure that we maintain this particular rate of return on our investments, which, of course, is yielding positive returns to all our clients,” he stated.

Beyond investments, Dutse acknowledged concerns among retired police officers about pension benefits, saying the Federal Government was working on measures to improve retirees’ take-home pay.

He said a presidential committee was already considering the matter.

“Currently, there is an attempt by the Federal Government — it’s in fact in the process — and we have been working to ensure that the pay, the take-home pay of retirees, is improved,” he said.

Dutse also said the company operates a Retirement Resettlement Support Scheme (RRSS) to provide temporary support to retiring police officers pending the release of their pension benefits, while pre-retirement programmes expose officers to businesses and skills such as poultry farming.

On customer service, he said NPFPL had expanded direct engagement with contributors and introduced a WhatsApp Business platform, which had attracted nearly 100,000 police officers.

He said the digital platform was designed to allow officers to access pension services remotely without having to visit the NPFPL’s offices.

Continue Reading

Business

Ndindi Nyoro Gives Ruto 14 Days to Disclose Dangote Refinery Deal

Published

on

People’s Party of Kenya leader and Kiharu Member of Parliament Ndindi Nyoro has publicly declared his party’s alignment with the opposition, vowing to collaborate with other opposition leaders to bring President William Ruto’s administration to an end.

Nyoro made the remarks during a public rally in Laare, Igembe North Constituency, Meru County, as part of what he described as the “People’s Tour.”

He said any effort to change Kenya’s leadership must be accompanied by a genuine transformation of the country’s economy and governance structures.

READ ALSO: Atiku Blows Lid on NNPC Ltd’s ₦11.2trn Receivables, Pipeline Contracts

Nyoro Issues Dangote Refinery Ultimatum

At the Laare rally, Nyoro issued President Ruto a direct 14-day ultimatum to make public the full details of the proposed Dangote oil refinery investment, arguing that Kenyans are entitled to know the terms of the deal.

The demand puts additional pressure on the Ruto administration over a transaction that has attracted scrutiny regarding transparency and the terms under which Kenya would participate.
Courtesy – Tuko

Continue Reading

Business

Dangote to Deliver $16bn East Africa Refinery in 40 Months

Published

on

Africa’s drive for industrial self reliance received a major boost on Wednesday as Kenya President William Ruto and President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, joined African leaders to break ground on a $16 billion petroleum refinery and petrochemicals complex in Lamu, Kenya.

Biztellers reports that the industrial complex is designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day and serve markets across Eastern Africa.

Dangote announced that the $16 billion Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals in Lamu, Kenya, will be delivered within 40 months, with an ambitious local content programme that will provide jobs for qualified Lamu graduates and train more than 1,000 young people from the county. Dangote also disclosed that 30 per cent equity in the 700,000 barrels per day refinery is being offered to East African countries, opening the landmark project to regional ownership as part of a broader strategy to strengthen energy security and retain more of Africa’s wealth within the continent.

READ ALSO: Nigeria @ 66: Chevron Reaffirms Commitment to Partnership with Nigeria

Dangote said the project would be executed at speed, assuring the gathering that the refinery would be completed within 40 months. He said the company had already begun mobilising equipment and technical resources for the project and would draw extensively from lessons learnt in delivering the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos. According to him, the Kenyan refinery would be one of the fastest major projects undertaken by the Group, as the company seeks to demonstrate that African businesses can execute complex industrial projects at globally competitive scale and speed.

Dangote placed local participation at the heart of the project, announcing that qualified graduates from Lamu would be offered opportunities to work on the development, while more than 1,000 young people from the host communities would receive technical and vocational training to prepare them for jobs within the refinery and its emerging industrial ecosystem. The Group will establish a training school to develop the technical skills required by the refinery, with emphasis on equipping local young people to participate directly in construction and subsequent operations. Dangote said the objective was to ensure that the economic footprint of the investment extended well beyond the refinery.

“We want young Kenyans and East Africans with skills here. We want local businesses to become suppliers. We want entrepreneurs around this project,” he said. “For me, the true measure of this project will not be the height of these towers or the number of barrels it processes.”

Instead, he said its success would also be measured by young Kenyans acquiring engineering and technical skills, local entrepreneurs building businesses around the investment and communities enjoying improved livelihoods. “Industrialisation must have a human face. It must create dignity. It must create jobs. It must create opportunities. It must create hope,” Dangote said.

President Ruto put the cost of the development at $16 billion, or about KSh2 trillion, describing it as a “generational undertaking” designed to serve not only Kenya but the wider Eastern African region. The project is designed to process about 700,000 barrels of crude oil daily and generate up to 1,000 megawatts of electricity. It will also include polypropylene and base oil production as part of an integrated refining and petrochemicals complex.

Ruto reinforced the employment commitment, saying current projections envisage about 60,000 direct and indirect jobs from the development. The President directed technical and vocational institutions and universities to prepare welders, technicians, engineers and managers for the opportunities, insisting that young people from Lamu and neighbouring communities must be given a fair opportunity to compete for the jobs. Ruto said the construction phase alone was expected to inject more than KSh2 billion monthly in wages into the economy, with the money circulating through shops, hotels, restaurants, transport, housing and other businesses.

In another significant move towards regional economic integration, Dangote disclosed that 30 per cent of the refinery’s equity would be made available to East African countries, allowing governments in the region to participate in the ownership and future value created by the project. He said Kenya and Rwanda had already moved quickly to take advantage of the opportunity. The ownership model fits into Dangote’s broader argument that African countries and investors should not merely host major industrial projects but should increasingly participate in their ownership and prosperity. Dangote said the refinery had been designed as a regional asset serving Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and other markets.

“This refinery is therefore not simply about one country. It is about a region,” he said.

The industrialist said Africa could no longer afford an economic model under which crude oil, minerals and agricultural commodities were exported while the continent imported the finished products derived from them.

“Africa cannot build lasting prosperity by exporting what it has and importing what it needs,” he said. “We must refine more of what we produce. We must process more of what we produce. We must retain more value here at home in Africa.”

The Governor of Lamu County, Issa Timamy also used the groundbreaking to condemn attempts to stop the project through litigation, describing those behind the move as working against an investment capable of transforming the economic fortunes of the county. Addressing residents partly in Swahili, the Governor said those who had gone to court against the development did not represent the aspirations of the people of Lamu.

He argued that opponents of the project were seeking to frustrate an investment that could provide opportunities for thousands of young people and insisted that residents would not allow the county’s development prospects to be undermined.

The Governor maintained that the project would go ahead and be completed, while calling on young people and businesses in the county to prepare themselves for the opportunities that would accompany the investment. He said Lamu had for too long been rich in history, culture and natural resources but left behind in the march of development, adding that the refinery offered the county an opportunity to become a major investment and industrial destination.

He nevertheless stressed the importance of protecting Lamu’s mangroves, fishing grounds, coastline and cultural heritage, calling for responsible development that would allow industrialisation and environmental protection to coexist.

Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo led other African leaders in celebrating Dangote’s emergence as one of the continent’s leading champions of industrialisation, recalling his evolution from trading and importation into large scale manufacturing. Obasanjo said the transformation demonstrated the importance of African governments creating the right environment for indigenous entrepreneurs to invest, manufacture and compete at scale. For the former President, the Lamu investment represented a further expansion of that industrialisation philosophy from West Africa into East Africa.

Obasanjo said he was particularly pleased to witness the project because of its potential to deepen economic integration between the two regions and demonstrate what African entrepreneurship, supported by purposeful political leadership, could accomplish.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said Africa could not continue exporting raw materials while surrendering the jobs and wealth associated with processing them elsewhere. He backed the regional ownership proposal, describing the opportunity for East African countries to acquire equity in the refinery as a smart approach to ensuring that the region participated not merely as a market but also as an owner.

Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, said the refinery would strengthen East Africa’s energy security and reduce its vulnerability to disruptions in global petroleum markets. He said Dangote’s record in cement, fertiliser and petroleum refining had demonstrated that African industrial enterprises could operate at global scale. “East Africa is not only a market. It is a place to produce, to build and to create value,” Abiy said.

Photo Caption: From Left – Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed; President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni; President of Kenya, William Ruto; President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote; former President of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo; President of Benin Republic, Romuald Wadagni; and President of Togo, Jean Lucien Savi de Tové, during the groundbreaking ceremony of the Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals SEZ in Mokowe, Lamu County, Kenya, on Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Continue Reading

Copyright © 2022. Biztellers, powered by Alphaxristi.

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x