Business
Nigeria Earns N55.5tn From Crude Oil Sales in 2025
Nigeria earned an average of N55.5tn from crude oil sales in 2025, an analysis of official production figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and crude price data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria has shown.
The 2025 figure is higher when compared to the N50.88tn earned in 2024.
NUPRC data indicate that Nigeria produced a total of 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025, with output fluctuating throughout the year amid outages, operational disruptions, and a gradual recovery in some producing fields.
The N55.5tn was obtained by multiplying 530.41 million barrels by the average crude oil price of $72.08 in 2025, and converting the result with N1,450 to a dollar.
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Crude oil production opened the year strongly at 47.70 million barrels in January, before falling to 41.02 million barrels in February. Output recovered modestly in March to 43.42 million barrels and rose further in April to 44.57 million barrels. Production remained relatively stable through the second quarter, increasing slightly to 45.04 million barrels in May and 45.16 million barrels in June.
In the third quarter, crude output climbed to 46.73 million barrels in July, but dipped again in August to 44.47 million barrels and fell further in September to 41.69 million barrels, one of the lowest levels recorded during the year. Production rebounded in the final quarter, reaching 43.44 million barrels in October, 43.08 million barrels in November, and 44.08 million barrels in December, according to the NUPRC.
While output remained below Nigeria’s OPEC quota for most of the year, crude oil prices helped support revenue. Data from the CBN show that Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, traded at elevated levels in the early part of the year before easing in the second quarter.
Bonny Light crude sold at an average of $80.76 per barrel in January 2025, before declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. Prices dropped further in April to $69.07 and reached a low of $65.90 in May, reflecting softer global oil market conditions.
Prices recovered in June to $73.50 and remained largely stable in the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September, before falling again to $66.15 in October, the latest month for which CBN data were available.
Using the simple average of the 10 monthly Bonny Light prices published by the CBN, crude prices averaged $72.08 per barrel over the period under review.
Applying this average price to Nigeria’s total crude oil production of 530.41 million barrels, estimated gross crude oil revenue for 2025 stood at approximately $38.23bn. Converted at an exchange rate of N1,450 to the dollar, this translates to about N55.5tn in crude oil earnings for the year.
Industry analysts noted that the figure represents gross revenue, not actual government receipts, as it does not account for production costs, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recovery, oil theft, domestic crude supply obligations, or deferred liftings.
Nonetheless, the analysis provides a clear picture of the scale of crude oil inflows generated during the year, based strictly on official production data from the NUPRC and price benchmarks from the CBN, highlighting the continued importance of both output stability and price performance to Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.
It should be noted that the N55tn was the amount expected to have been generated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, the international oil companies, and their indigenous counterparts for the sale of crude produced in Nigeria.
In 2024, it was noted that Nigeria produced 408.68 million barrels of crude oil, generating approximately N50.88tn.
Crude for Loan
The PUNCH reports that the government-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited serviced part of its $3bn forward-sale loan from the African Export-Import Bank with crude oil worth N991bn in 2024.
According to its 2024 financial statement report, the repayment was tied to Project Gazelle, a forward crude oil supply agreement signed in 2023.
On August 17, 2023, The PUNCH reported that the NNPC announced it had secured a $3.3bn emergency loan to repay crude oil obligations from Afreximbank. It explained that the loan would be used by the oil company to support the Federal Government in stabilising Nigeria’s exchange rate.
Under the deal, NNPC committed to deliver 90,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Production Sharing Contract assets to back a funding facility. According to the 2023 financial statement, a drawdown of $2.25bn had already been achieved by 31st December 2023, with principal repayment scheduled to begin in June 2024.
The funding carried an interest rate of 3-month LIBOR plus 6.5 per cent, with a 6 per cent margin and 0.5 per cent liquidity premium. According to the financial statement, the drawdown on the facility had reached N4.9tn out of a total available N5.1tn, while N991bn worth of crude oil had been lifted in repayment, leaving an outstanding balance of N3.8tn at the end of 2024.
It could not be ascertained yet how much crude the NNPC committed to the repayment of the N3.8tn outstanding loan in the whole of 2025.
OPEC Quota
It was reported that Nigeria’s crude oil output dipped in December 2025 by 14,000 barrels per day, defying government efforts to ramp up production.
According to data from NUPRC, instead of rising to meet the 1.5 million barrels per day quota set for Nigeria by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, crude oil production fell from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December, representing 95 per cent of the OPEC quota.
The data show that in 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. A review of the average daily crude oil output indicates that Nigeria opened the year strongly, producing 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 bpd above its OPEC allocation.
Output, however, dipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened further in March, when production averaged 1.40 mbpd, representing one of the widest shortfalls of the year.
Although output recovered modestly in April (1.49 mbpd) and May (1.45 mbpd), Nigeria remained under its OPEC ceiling until June, when crude production edged up to 1.51 mbpd, marginally exceeding the quota.
The country sustained this momentum in July, producing 1.51 mbpd, before slipping back below the threshold in the following months.
Production declined notably in the third quarter, averaging 1.43 mbpd in August and falling to a yearly low of 1.39 mbpd in September, leaving a deficit of more than 110,000 barrels per day against the OPEC target.
The NUPRC data reveal that output remained subdued in the final quarter, with daily crude production standing at 1.40 mbpd in October, 1.436 mbpd in November, and 1.422 mbpd in December.
Missed Target
In the 2025 budget, Nigeria planned to produce at least 2.1 million barrels of oil (crude oil and condensate) per day. This would amount to 766.5 million barrels if multiplied by the 365 days in the year.
However, in the whole of 2025, the country struggled to pump 599.64 million barrels of oil — 530.41mb of crude and 69.23mb of condensate. This means the country was 166.86 million barrels below its oil production target in 2025.
As a result, the 2026 benchmarks for oil were seen to be deliberately conservative to account for uncertainties in the global oil market and ongoing domestic challenges, including security issues and infrastructure constraints affecting crude oil production.
Instead of the ambitious 2.1 million barrels for 2025, the 2026 revenue estimate is anchored on a daily production of 1.84 million barrels, a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Experts Speak
A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, said the crude production volume is dependent on several factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the government itself.
According to him, the government can deploy resources towards oil exploration, but the overall impact depends on technical cooperation by partners, the joint ventures, happenings in the global oil market, and the environmental conditions, among others.
Ajibola maintained that the Nigerian situation is somehow complex, as the key agency in charge, the NNPC, has been enmeshed in controversies over the period.
The don stated that of particular concern are the unsettled problems in host communities, incessant pipeline vandalisation, activities of bunkerers with alleged loss of about 30 per cent of potent production annually, the state of insecurity in the country, corruption in high places, and others.
Ajibola submitted, “The government can be more decisive in addressing those problems that are right on its table to jack up production levels and meet planned targets. It does not appear that the government is doing enough at the moment.”
Speaking, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, remarked that oil production has suffered from two major limitations or challenges—the challenges of insecurity and policy, saying those are the two factors that have affected investment in oil exploration and exploitation in the upstream sector.
“On insecurity, the government has committed a lot of resources to protect pipelines and protect investors, and we can see some results, but we are not exactly where we should be. So, insecurity is still a kind of issue affecting oil production. The government continues to commit resources to tackle insecurity; it engaged private community-based security agencies to support the efforts of the military. Some progress has been made, but we are not yet where we expect to be,” he stressed.
Yusuf stressed the challenge of policy, adding that it took the country a long time to come up with the Petroleum Industry Act, and even the act itself still requires some fine-tuning.
“So there is still the need to review the fiscal terms to encourage more investors to come because attracting capital to the oil sector is a very competitive thing. We are competing with many other oil-producing countries that are offering far better incentives to investors.
“The good news is that the President has committed to attracting those investors into the oil sector. The latest we saw in this regard was the meeting between the President and the Global Executive of Shell, where a promise of $20bn investment was made.
“So these are the kind of things that we expect to see. If we see more of these, we are likely to see more investments in oil production. So it’s a question of improving the fiscal terms, ensuring policy sustainability and stability, so that the problem of uncertainty or unpredictability will no longer be there. We should ensure we have security of investments and assets of investors in the Niger Delta,” Yusuf stressed.
A professor of energy, Dayo Ayoade, said the government knows what to do to ramp up oil production.
“If you want to fix production targets in the oil and gas industry, you have to ensure that you have good governance in the sector. Your sector must have a well-implemented programme. You must adhere to your own laws. And when you do this, you boost confidence among your investors, and then the investors would want to bring in their US dollars to invest in your country. If you don’t do this, then that could be a problem,” Ayoade said.
He posited that there’s still the issue of oil, even though the government no longer makes much noise about it.
Despite the N55.5tn made in 2025, the don said, “The facts are that there are reasons why we’re not producing enough. You have to give people the confidence to invest over the long term. What has happened to the fact that we’ve successfully ended oil theft because we don’t talk about it anymore? Was that the case? No more pipeline breaches?
“What about the cost of production in Nigeria? I think it’s one of the highest in the world. The cost of doing business in Nigeria is very high. You can’t compare it to any of our competitors. So, we still have a very long way to go. I think that if the government wants to achieve its 2026 oil targets, it must address the cost of doing business in the oil industry,” he added.
The professor commended the government for some of the recent investment decisions.
“There are lots of good things also. I don’t want to be too negative. I think there are lots of good things the government has done that will take time to achieve its objectives. For instance, Shell’s continuing huge investments into Bonga will be highly profitable; that will increase our numbers, helping our indigenous producers open up marginal fields and get to production quickly.
“All those sitting on oil wells and sitting on licences should show the government their work programmes. If you don’t do your work programme effectively, we’ll remove the lock from you and give it to someone else. So, there are good things also. It’s not all bad news. But the government can do more to ensure that we meet our targets,” he said.
Business
Dangote Identifies Power, Financing as Possible Keys to Africa’s Industrial Revolution
Africa’s ambition of becoming a global industrial powerhouse hinges on its ability to mobilise long-term financing, deliver reliable electricity and adopt policies that turn its vast natural resources into manufactured products.
The President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote expressed these views in London at the Financial Times Africa Summit during a conversation with David Pilling the Africa Editor of the newspaper.
Dangote, who has outlined a $50 billion investment programme for 2026 to 2030, said the continent must build stronger financial institutions capable of funding large-scale industrial projects, expand electricity infrastructure and establish policies that encourage domestic manufacturing, value addition and economic diversification.
The industrialist maintained that Africa possessed the natural resources, population and investment opportunities required to become a global manufacturing powerhouse, but needed stronger institutions and infrastructure to translate those advantages into sustainable economic prosperity.
Responding to a question on why Africa had produced relatively few industrial enterprises of global scale despite its enormous economic potential, Dangote stressed the need for deliberate policies and institutions capable of supporting long-term industrial investment.
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The Africa Summit by the FT is a prestigious platform for Africa’s most influential leaders and this year’s Summit lived up to its billing convening leading policymakers, business leaders, financiers and visionaries to explore how Africa can contribute meaningfully to shape the next era of global development.
Dangote said, “I think the number one thing that the continent has to concentrate on doing is having very strong financial institutions, their own financial institutions, and also to have very strong agricultural policy, and also industrial policy”.
He maintained that infrastructure development was equally important but singled out electricity as perhaps the most urgent requirement for unlocking Africa’s industrial potential, adding; “For Africa, what we need the most today is actually power,” he declared.
Dangote explained that inadequate electricity supply continued to undermine Africa’s ability to process its mineral resources locally, forcing countries to export raw materials rather than capture the greater economic value associated with manufacturing and processing. He cited the mining industry as a particularly striking example, noting that companies frequently identified unreliable electricity supply as a major reason for their inability to establish processing facilities close to extraction sites.
According to him, approximately 650 million Africans remain without access to electricity, a deficit he described as fundamentally incompatible with the continent’s industrial ambitions.
He argued that resolving the power crisis would transform Africa’s manufacturing prospects, encourage investment in mineral processing and create substantial employment opportunities.
The industrialist also drew on his experience developing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) in Lagos to illustrate how Africa’s financing environment could frustrate even commercially promising projects.
He disclosed that the Group had been compelled to finance the refinery against its own balance sheet rather than depend on conventional project financing, which he described as extremely difficult to secure for major African industrial investments.
He explained that prolonged financing negotiations could undermine the viability of industrial projects by delaying execution, increasing costs and exposing investors to changing economic conditions.
For the Dangote Group, the decision to proceed with the refinery without conventional project finance involved extraordinary financial risks, compounded by severe currency depreciation and the enormous cost of developing supporting infrastructure. Dangote said the exchange rate moved from approximately ₦136 to the dollar to as high as ₦1,800 during the refinery’s development, while about 90 percent of the Group’s revenue was denominated in naira.
Dangote said the Group’s proposed $50 billion investment programme was designed partly to encourage other Africans to recognise the opportunities available across the continent.
“The legacy we are trying to set up is how do we industrialise our continent?” he said.
He explained that the Group intended to expand its investments between 2026 and 2030 to demonstrate that African businesses could execute large-scale projects and encourage other investors to participate in developing the continent. The ambition, he stressed, extended beyond the growth of one conglomerate to creating a wider industrial ecosystem capable of supporting businesses, generating employment and retaining more economic value within Africa.
Dangote also challenged African governments to reconsider their approach to industrial protection, warning that allowing cheap imported products to undermine domestic manufacturing could permanently weaken the continent’s productive capacity. He argued that emerging African industries required appropriate policy support to compete against established international manufacturers, particularly where imported products were sold at prices that discouraged investment in local factories.
He, however, distinguished industrial protection from restrictions on trade between African countries, advocating a regional approach that would strengthen manufacturing while preserving the objectives of the African Continental Free Trade Area. He maintained that African economies should trade more freely among themselves while establishing a common framework to protect their industries against unfair external competition.
The industrialist also questioned why Africa continued to experience widespread poverty despite its extensive agricultural land, mineral resources and youthful population.
He cited the continent’s natural endowments as evidence that Africa’s economic challenges were not principally the result of inadequate resources but of insufficient productive investment and industrial capacity. “Why should we remain poor?” he asked.
Dangote expressed confidence that the continent was entering a period in which African governments, entrepreneurs and investors were becoming increasingly determined to develop their own productive capabilities.
Business
Dangote Calls for Stronger Protection of Local Industries, Unveils Pan-African Energy Distribution Network
President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), Aliko Dangote, has urged African governments to adopt policies that protect domestic industries and accelerate industrialisation.
He made the call in London, during the FT Africa Summit where he vented plans to establish an extensive petroleum distribution network across Africa through strategic investments in pipelines, storage facilities and supply corridors.
According to Dangote, the Group is aggressively expanding its petroleum logistics and distribution infrastructure across East, Central and Southern Africa as part of efforts to strengthen energy security, improve access to refined products and eliminate longstanding supply bottlenecks across the continent.
During a wide-ranging interview with Financial Times Africa Editor, David Pilling, the industrialist disclosed that the Group recently acquired a 25 percent stake in a petroleum products pipeline network in Kenya and is pursuing additional infrastructure projects connecting Djibouti and Ethiopia, alongside investments in Cameroon and Namibia.
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According to him, Africa’s aspiration for economic transformation will remain difficult to achieve without significant investments in infrastructure combined with industrial policies that promote local manufacturing, preserve productive capacity and create sustainable employment opportunities.
“Allowing imports to displace local production means we are exporting our jobs out of the continent and importing poverty into the continent,” Dangote said.
Dangote explained that the expansion forms part of a broader strategy to develop an interconnected African energy supply system capable of linking major refining centres with underserved markets that have historically depended on imported petroleum products and fragmented distribution channels.
“We are very aggressive with that,” he said, in response to questions about the Group’s plans for petroleum depots, pipelines and logistics infrastructure.
He revealed that the acquisition of a 25 per cent stake in Kenya’s petroleum pipeline network was achieved with the support of the Kenyan government and would significantly enhance the movement of refined petroleum products within the East African region.
“Just let me tell you, yesterday, with the support from the President of Kenya, we bought 25 percent of the pipeline network for the distribution of petroleum products,” Dangote disclosed.
The Group is also developing a major petroleum distribution corridor linking Djibouti and Addis Ababa, complete with storage terminals and tank farms designed to facilitate the efficient transportation and storage of refined products.
He added that another strategic project in Cameroon is nearing completion, while Namibia has been identified as a critical hub in the Group’s plan to penetrate Southern African markets.
Dangote described Namibia as a particularly attractive location because of its strategic proximity to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) in Lagos.
“From our refinery to Namibia is just about four days of steaming,” he noted.
According to him, refined products from the Lagos refinery will be transported to Namibia and distributed across interconnected markets, including Botswana and South Africa.
The Group is also examining other supply corridors extending into Zimbabwe and Zambia as part of its broader objective of developing a continental network supported by strategically located storage and transportation infrastructure.
The petroleum distribution expansion complements plans to establish another refinery in Lamu, Kenya, with a projected refining capacity of approximately 700,000 barrels per day.
Dangote noted that East Africa’s growing economies, vibrant mining sector and increasing energy demand make the region an attractive destination for refining investments.
He explained that the proposed refinery would source crude oil from multiple markets rather than depend exclusively on supplies from Kenya or Uganda, ensuring greater flexibility and long-term operational sustainability.
According to him, technical assessments identified Lamu as the preferred location because of its deep-water access, marine infrastructure and availability of critical resources required for large-scale refining operations.
Dangote revealed that the investment decision was concluded within four months, although he alleged that vested commercial interests attempted to delay the project through legal proceedings shortly before its public announcement.
Beyond energy infrastructure, Dangote strongly advocated policies aimed at protecting domestic industries from unfair competition, arguing that industrialisation cannot thrive if emerging African manufacturers are exposed to unrestricted imports from more established economies.
He questioned why African countries should be discouraged from supporting local industries when developed economies increasingly deploy similar measures to strengthen domestic manufacturing and employment.
Drawing parallels with recent developments in major global economies, he argued that industrial protection remains a legitimate and widely accepted economic strategy.
“If America is now saying, no, we are going to protect our industries, who are we in Africa not to protect our own industries?” he asked.
Dangote also disclosed that the Group has earmarked approximately $50 billion for investments between 2026 and 2030, describing the programme as part of a broader mission to demonstrate that African businesses can successfully execute transformative industrial projects at scale.
“The legacy we are trying to set up is how do we industrialise our continent?” he said.
According to him, the investment programme is designed not only to expand the Group’s operations but also to inspire other African entrepreneurs and investors to pursue ambitious industrial ventures capable of reshaping the continent’s economic future.
Looking beyond the energy sector, Dangote identified inadequate power supply, weak financial systems and underdeveloped industrial policies as major challenges constraining Africa’s economic growth.
He described electricity as a fundamental requirement for industrialisation, particularly in manufacturing, mining and mineral processing, where reliable power is essential for value addition.
With an estimated 650 million Africans still lacking access to electricity, he stressed that addressing the continent’s energy deficit would unlock significant opportunities for job creation, industrial development and economic diversification.
Questioning why a continent blessed with abundant natural resources, vast arable land and a young population continues to grapple with poverty, Dangote insisted that Africa possesses all the ingredients necessary to become a major industrial powerhouse.
Expressing optimism about the continent’s trajectory, he maintained that Africa’s industrial awakening has already begun.
“The journey has started,” Dangote declared. “But now we’re awake, and we will make it happen.”
Business
FCT Motorists, Commuters Divided over NNPC Petrol Discount
Some motorists and commuters in FCT have expressed mixed reactions to the N66-per-litre petrol discount offered by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd. as the Oct. 31 deadline approaches.
Speaking with the News Agency of Nigeria on Thursday, some of them commended the initiative while others expressed reservations about its impact.
NAN reports that the Federal Government announced a 30-day discount on petrol sold by the NNPC Ltd., with public transport operators to receive priority under the arrangement.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, said the arrangement was not a return to petrol subsidy.
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The minister said the government was also negotiating a ceiling of N1, 350 per litre on the ex-gantry or landing cost of petrol in an effort to reduce sharp fluctuations in pump prices.
NAN reports that Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut its gantry petrol price by N25 per litre from N1,350 to N1,325.
Mr Abubakar Saidu, a motorist who resides in Wuse, commended the Federal Government for the discount offered at NNPC Ltd. retail outlets.
Saidu stated that he purchased petrol through the app but sometimes had to wait in long queues before accessing the product.
He said that many Nigerians were unable to benefit from the discount due to network challenges.
“I downloaded the app and followed the procedure before buying the petrol at N1,339 per litre,” he said.
Another commuter who resides at Nyanya, Mr Obi Anyawu, said the intervention had not translated into lower transport fares.
Anyawu said the intervention had failed to ease the burden of high transportation costs on Nigerians.
According to him, commuters are still struggling to afford daily transportation to work.
“The transportation fare keeps increasing, and there has not been any difference,” he said.
Mrs Stephanie Okoro, a commuter who resides at Karu, said commuters were still struggling to afford daily transportation to work.
“I have not benefited from the intervention, and I have not seen any positive impact it has, even among the transporters.
“Commuters continue to face difficulties accessing affordable transportation, with many stranded at bus stops due to high fares,” she said.
Mr Jide Oyetola, a motorist who resides in Bwari, called for a comprehensive review of the intervention and the introduction of additional measures to alleviate the hardship faced by Nigerians.
Oyetola urged the government to explore alternative measures to reduce transportation costs and ease the economic burden on citizens.
“My secretary recently complained that her salary can no longer cover her transportation expenses.
“She said she might not be able to come to work five days a week because her salary can no longer cover her transportation costs.
“Even if she waits for a cheaper bus every morning, the situation will still not be manageable. You cannot blame her. I am sure she is not alone in that plight,” he said.
He said it forced her to consider reducing the number of days she would report to work.
Mrs Nonye Obanla, a commuter who resides at Dutse, urged the government to explore alternative measures to reduce transportation costs and ease the economic burden on citizens.
Courtesy – NAN





