Despite persistent Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices and persistent concerns over domestic energy shortages, Nigeria flared approximately 76.92 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas between January and May 2026.

This was detailed in data published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). A cursory look at the Commission’s monthly gas production status reports available at its website indicates that operators burnt a combined 76,919.78 million standard cubic feet of gas during the five-month period.

The flared volumes represent gas that could have been channeled towards power generation, industrial use, compressed natural gas initiatives and domestic cooking gas supply in a country grappling with high energy costs.

A breakdown of the figures showed that Nigeria flared 17,166.08 million standard cubic feet of gas in January, accounting for 7.10 percent of total gas production during the month.

In February, the volume of gas flared dropped to 14,085.55 million standard cubic feet, representing 6.44 per cent of output.

The Commission’s data showed that 15,575.10 million standard cubic feet were flared in March, equivalent to 6.40 percent of total gas produced. The volume declined slightly to 14,517.95 million standard cubic feet in April, although the percentage of gas flared rose to 6.94 percent.

In May, Nigeria flared an average of 0.57 billion cubic feet of gas per day, translating to roughly 15.58 billion standard cubic feet for the month, while the flare rate stood at 6.9 percent.

What is striking about this development is that it is coming when Nigerian households and businesses continue to contend with high energy costs and concerns over the availability of alternative fuels.

Findings showed that cooking gas prices jumped from an average of N1,000 per kilogramme in January and February this year to as high as N2,400 a few days ago.

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This is also because local producers of LPG have been unable to meet domestic demands for gas, according to operators. For example, the sources stated that there is a decline in LPG supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP), due to internal utilisation, not because the refinery exports, as is being speculated.

The NUPRC data, however, indicate that Nigeria is yet to eliminate the long-standing practice. Despite the continued flaring, the commission noted in its May gas report that the country’s average daily gas production rose to 7.93 billion cubic feet per day, reflecting growth in upstream output.

According to the report, the May flare rate of 6.9 percent underscores Nigeria’s commitment to ending routine gas flaring by 2030.

The Federal Government has repeatedly pledged to end routine gas flaring as part of its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement and through the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme.

The programme seeks to convert previously flared gas into commercially viable products, including liquefied petroleum gas, compressed natural gas and feedstock for power generation and industrial applications.

In December 2025, the NUPRC announced the issuance of permits to successful bidders under the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme, with the projects expected to attract about $2bn in investments and generate thousands of jobs. The Commission said the initiative could capture between 250 million and 300 million standard cubic feet of gas daily that would otherwise have been flared.

Energy experts have long maintained that ending routine gas flaring would not only improve environmental outcomes but also enhance domestic energy security.

Gas flaring has been associated with greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation, particularly in host communities within the Niger Delta region.

The latest figures suggest that while Nigeria has made progress in reducing the proportion of gas flared compared to historical levels, the practice remains a major challenge in a country seeking to expand access to cleaner and more affordable energy sources.

Nigeria imported crude oil worth $1.39bn in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting a major shift in the country’s petroleum trade dynamics as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increasingly sourced feedstock from international markets despite Nigeria’s status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer.

Data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments Highlights for the first quarter of 2026 showed that crude oil imports rose from $340m in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $1.39bn in Q1 2026, representing a 308.82 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase.

The development comes amid the rapid expansion of local refining capacity, particularly at the Dangote refinery, which has continued to increase production volumes and exports of refined petroleum products while supplementing domestic crude supplies with imported grades.

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The CBN report showed that crude oil imports accounted for about 81.8 per cent of Nigeria’s total imports of crude oil, gas and refined petroleum products, which stood at $1.70bn during the review period.

The figure highlights the growing dependence of the Dangote refinery on imported crude despite ongoing efforts by regulators to improve domestic crude supply arrangements.

The increase in crude imports contrasted with a collapse in refined petroleum product imports, which fell by 87.5 per cent to $310m in Q1 2026 from $2.48bn in the preceding quarter. The sharp decline reflects the increasing substitution of imported fuel with locally refined products as domestic refining capacity expands.

According to the apex bank, the decline in fuel imports was one of the key factors that strengthened Nigeria’s external position during the quarter. The report read, “Refined petroleum products imports declined to $0.31bn in Q1 2026, from $2.48bn in Q4 2025.”

The reduction in fuel imports coincided with a rise in exports of refined petroleum products, which increased by 20.3 per cent to $2.37bn in Q1 2026 from $1.97bn in the previous quarter.

The trend suggests that Nigeria is gradually transitioning from a net importer of refined petroleum products to becoming a significant exporter, driven largely by the output of the Dangote refinery and other domestic refining facilities.

The CBN noted that the country’s goods account surplus rose significantly to $5.95bn in the first quarter of 2026 from $1.77bn in the preceding quarter and $3.35bn in the corresponding period of 2025.

“The goods account (a major sub-account in the current account) recorded a significantly higher surplus of $5.95bn in Q1 2026, as against $1.77bn and $3.35bn recorded in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2025,” the report read.

The stronger trade position was also supported by higher crude oil exports. Earnings from crude oil exports rose by 19.79 per cent to $8.11bn from $6.77bn in the previous quarter, while gas exports increased by 12.95 per cent to $2.53bn from $2.24bn. Refined petroleum product exports also climbed to $2.37bn from $1.97bn.

Overall exports increased to $15.49bn during the quarter from $13.36bn in Q4 2025, while total imports declined by 17.69 per cent to $9.54bn from $11.59bn.

The improvement in trade flows helped lift Nigeria’s current account surplus to $4.98bn in Q1 2026, compared with $1.40bn in the preceding quarter and $3.41bn in the corresponding period of 2025. The latest figure represents a 255.71 per cent increase from the previous quarter and a 46.04 per cent rise year-on-year.

According to the CBN, the higher current account surplus was driven by increased earnings from crude oil, gas and refined petroleum exports, lower imports of refined petroleum products and a reduction in net out-payments on the primary income account.

The report stated, “Provisional balance of payments statistics for Q1 2026 show a current account surplus of $4.98bn, which was higher than the $1.40bn and $3.41bn recorded in the preceding quarter and corresponding period, respectively.”

Despite the stronger current account performance, Nigeria recorded a lower overall balance of payments surplus of $2.38bn in the first quarter, compared with $2.67bn in Q4 2025.

However, the country’s external reserves increased to $48.35bn at the end of March 2026 from $45.75bn at the end of December 2025, reflecting continued foreign exchange inflows and improved external sector conditions.

Courtesy – The Punch

Nigerian fuel marketers are increasingly importing refined petroleum products originating from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lome, Togo, according to an S&P Global Energy official, Matthew Tracey-Cook.

Tracey-Cook said the circular trade pattern persists even as the refinery boosts local production and supply, highlighting a possible disparity between local and international pricing.

Speaking on Thursday at a MEMAN webinar themed “West Africa pricing and flows in the context of the war,” Tracey-Cook provided insights into evolving West African refined products markets, emphasising the deepening interconnection between Dangote’s coastal operations and the Lome STS hub.

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He said Dangote volumes on a coastal basis do arrive back in Lagos from Lomé. Tracey-Cook presented data showing a marked shift in supply sources for Nigeria.
While waterborne imports exclude truck volumes, Dangote-origin products have become dominant in waterborne deliveries to Lagos and other Nigerian locations.

“Over the last six months, if you look at the volume of products on a waterborne basis that’s imported directly into Nigeria, Dangote production has become increasingly dominant,” he said.

He noted particularly strong performance between March and May 2026, saying, “For several months, from March until May, we saw well over 70 to 80 per cent of the volumes that were imported into Nigeria actually originated from Dangote; from their coastal Dangote volumes which were re-imported.”
He added that similar patterns appear on the diesel side, noting that “the increasing importance of the Dangote refinery in terms of product that’s flowing into Nigeria is really evident” from S&P Global data.

He stressed that despite Dangote’s growing direct coastal supply, offshore Lome has not diminished in importance, as the Lomé market is still slightly bigger compared to 2024 levels.

In certain months, such as November and December 2025, Lome handled significantly larger volumes. The hub serves as a flexible STS facility where larger medium-range tankers discharge cargoes that are then lifted onto smaller coaster vessels better suited to many West African ports with limited capacity.

“Lomé has become an increasingly important transshipment hub for filling regional shortages across the region… It serves an important purpose, given that many ports in West Africa don’t have the capacity to take a fully laden MR-sized vessel,” he added.

Charts from the webinar illustrate substantial Dangote exports to offshore Lome. These volumes include petrol, diesel, jet fuel and other clean products. Offshore Lome receives diverse origins but consistently incorporates significant Dangote cargoes.

Tracey-Cook also addressed pricing trends, noting an unusual seasonal pattern since the Middle East crisis began, adding, “This is really an unusual seasonal trend where gasoline in West Africa is significantly more expensive than it is in Europe right now.”

He added that Dangote petrol pricing remains tightly aligned with STS Lome benchmarks, while price differentials between the two locations enable effective risk management.

Tracey-Cook positioned Dangote and Lome as twin pillars of West African supply. “These two locations, the FOB Dangote market and also the STS Lomé market, are the two largest and most important regional hubs of supply in the region as a whole.

“You can, in a way, kind of compare it to the Mediterranean market, where you have multiple refineries, multiple sources of supply… And so that’s kind of what we see as a possibility in terms of development of this market,” he stressed.

It was disclosed that the US-Iran war’s impact has amplified Dangote’s role. “Looking at the context of the war, one of the most important things that stands out is the importance of Dangote in supplying not just West Africa, in terms of being a supplier of last resort across clean products, but also the European market.

“Europe before the war was more than 50 per cent reliant on jet fuel from inside the Persian Gulf. And when that supply was cut off, benchmark prices spiked to well over $1,800 per metric tonne.

“What we saw in the months after the war broke out was an increasing flow of product from the US, but also a large flow of product from Dangote. We actually saw in May Dangote being the largest single exporter of jet fuel globally in terms of refined product capacity,” Tracey-Cook noted.

He showed record Dangote exports outside West Africa from April to June 2026, with notable deliveries to the UK, the Netherlands and South Africa, among others.

The PUNCH recalls that some fuel importers in the country alleged in November 2025 that the Dangote refinery sells a litre of petrol to international traders at N65 cheaper than the amount it offers to marketers in Nigeria.

The Depot and Petroleum Product Marketers Association of Nigeria and the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria confirmed this in separate interviews with our correspondent at the time.

“Dangote is selling to international traders at N65 lower than what he offers in Nigeria. How is it possible for some of our members to buy from someone who bought from Dangote?

“Dangote sells to international traders at N65 cheaper than what he is selling to us. In some instances, we were able to buy from those people and still bring it to Nigeria. They will take the product to Lomé, claiming that they are buying large quantities,” DAPPMAN said in 2025.

But the refinery dispelled the allegation of cheaper petrol sales in Togo compared to Nigeria, with many Nigerians questioning how local marketers could leave the producer of a product in his home country to buy it from another trader in Togo.

Courtesy – The Punch