Business
Nigeria’s Debt Per Capita To Surge As KPMG Calls For Borrowing Guidelines
According to KPMG’s recent Macroeconomic Snapshot, Nigeria’s per capita debt, which was N217,138 in 2022, is projected to reach N365,258 by the conclusion of 2023.
KPMG also highlighted that Nigeria’s debt service to actual revenue ratio, which has consistently exceeded 50 percent since 2017, was recorded at 81 percent in 2022.
It revealed that Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio of 81 percent at the close of 2022 was significantly higher than the average ratio of 22.5 percent observed among low-income nations.
“This is however unlikely being a transition year with the outgoing administration winding done and a new one starting which would require time to set up and settle before new policies can be introduced and work,” KPMG said.
KPMG stated that the new administration might even be compelled to borrow even more to run its government and stimulate much-needed growth in physical and social capital.
“To borrow more might need to widen the various legal and self-imposed restraints and buffers relating to deficit financing,” it said.
KPMG emphasized the importance of Nigeria establishing well-thought-out guidelines and frameworks for borrowing in order to avoid defaulting on loan terms, which could potentially harm the country’s credit rating and undermine confidence in borrowing money.
KPMG further emphasized the need for the Nigerian government to prioritize sustainable debt management and prioritize investments that generate long-term economic returns.
Additionally, KPMG pointed out that despite the intended short-term nature of Ways & Means advances, which are meant to fund delayed expected government cash receipts, they have been utilized over the past eight years in Nigeria to bridge the gap caused by unrealistic revenue projections.
The amount of Ways & Means advances rose significantly from N0.6 trillion in 2015 to N22.7 trillion by the conclusion of 2022.
The Senate had recently granted approval for the securitization of N22.7 trillion in Ways and Means advances that were provided to the government by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Ways and Means loans serve as a mechanism for the government to borrow funds from the CBN on a short-term basis to address emergency financing needs and support the budget.
With Senate approval, these loans from the CBN, once assented to by the president, can now be converted to a type of security such as bonds that can be traded in the capital market,” KPMG said.
It stated that the securitisation of the CBN ways and means, as approved by the Senate, provides for the issuing of debt instruments with a 3-year moratorium on the principal, a 40-year term, and an annual interest rate of 9 percent per annum.
“The immediate impact of this is that Nigeria’s debt which hit N46.3 trillion by the end of 2022 will immediately rise to about N70 trillion,” KPMG said.
“This is representing 35 percent of 2022 nominal GDP which is close to the government’s own self-imposed target of 40 percent.
“However, with the N8.8 trillion expected new borrowings from both domestic and external means in the 2023 States and Federal budgets, the total debt stock will likely stand at about N77.8 trillion by the end of 2023.”
KPMG highlighted that the aforementioned securitization of Ways and Means advances does not take into account the potential for additional borrowings that may arise from incoming administrations at the State and Federal levels, which are not yet reflected in the 2023 budgets.
Kenyan President, William Samoei Ruto has described the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) as “a masterpiece of science, engineering and art”.
He made the declaration following a tour of the world-class facility in Lagos, while reaffirming Kenya’s commitment to partnering with the Dangote Group on the proposed $17 billion East African Oil Refinery and Petrochemical Complex in Lamu.
President Ruto visited the refinery after attending the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), noted that witnessing firsthand the scale, sophistication and operational excellence of the 700,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery had strengthened his confidence in the East African refinery project.
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“Coming here and seeing it for myself, I can confirm that I have seen a masterpiece of science, engineering, and art. To my brother Aliko, congratulations. I always knew Nigerians to be very brave people and go-getters, but I did not anticipate that it was at this scale,” President Ruto said.
The Kenyan leader disclosed that preparations had been concluded for the ground-breaking ceremony of the East African refinery project in Lamu, which is expected to become a strategic regional asset for East Africa.
According to him, the refinery will drive industrialisation, create jobs, strengthen engineering and technical capacity, enhance energy security and promote regional economic integration.
“This is not a Kenyan refinery; it is going to be a regional refinery. We are positioning our continent as an emerging growth centre, and this project will help accelerate industrialisation, create jobs, enhance engineering capabilities and strengthen Africa’s economic competitiveness,” he stated bureaucratic bottlenecks to ensure efficient project execution.
“The Government of Kenya is 100 percent behind this project. We have secured the required land and are working to ensure that we spend our time building rather than navigating administrative delays,” he said.
The President further commended the leadership and commitment of Dangote Group President and Chief Executive, Aliko Dangote, highlighting his deep understanding of the refinery’s technical and operational processes.
“The detail with which Aliko Dangote understands this plant is remarkable. Unless you understand the details, you are unable to make the right decisions. That commitment to excellence is one of the reasons behind the success of this project,” he added.
Dangote Group’s Chief Strategy Officer, Aliyu Suleiman, disclosed, during the visit that the conglomerate generated approximately $17 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026 and is on course to achieve a record $36 billion in revenue for the full year, representing a 100 per cent increase over the $18 billion recorded in 2025.
“The revenues of the Group have grown significantly over the last five years. From $18 billion last year, we are on track to get to $36 billion this year. Our half-year revenue is already about $17 billion,” Suleiman said.
He attributed the strong performance to sustained investments across key sectors, including cement, sugar, fertiliser, petroleum refining, upstream oil and gas, and other strategic businesses.
Suleiman noted that Dangote Group’s growth ambitions are anchored on its Vision 2030 Strategy, aimed at expanding the company’s industrial footprint across Africa and creating globally competitive businesses on the continent.
“Between 2020 and 2025, the Group executed a capital expenditure programme of approximately $50 billion. Over the next five years, we intend to invest twice that amount as we accelerate our expansion across Africa,” he stated.
Suleiman emphasised that the proposed 700,000 barrels-per-day greenfield refinery and petrochemical complex in Lamu, estimated at approximately $17 billion, will be a cornerstone of the Group’s ambition to build a $100 billion African industrial enterprise.
“The East African refinery in Kenya is going to be a key component of our journey and our dream to get to $100 billion. It is going to be a major contributor,” he said.
He added that Dangote Group’s expansion plans span a broad range of sectors, including port infrastructure, gas infrastructure, LNG, upstream oil and gas, power generation, mining and other strategic industrial investments across Africa.
As part of preparations for the project, Dangote Group has signed a contract worth more than $450 million with Engineers India Limited (EIL) to provide project management consultancy and engineering, procurement and construction management services for the Lamu refinery and petrochemical complex.
The partnership builds on EIL’s experience and involvement in the successful development of the DPRP in Lagos. Once completed, the East African refinery is expected to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, strengthening regional energy security and supporting industrial development across East Africa.
The Dangote Group is also progressing plans to expand the processing capacity of the DPRP in Nigeria from 700,000 barrels per day to approximately 1.4 million barrels per day through the addition of a new 750,000 barrels-per-day crude distillation unit.
The expansion is expected to further solidify Nigeria’s position as a leading exporter of refined petroleum products and enhance Africa’s energy self-sufficiency.
President Ruto’s visit and Dangote Group’s ambitious growth plans highlight the increasing impact of African-led investments in driving the continent’s industrial renaissance.
With record revenue growth, a robust investment pipeline, expansion of refining capacity in Nigeria and the planned development of the East African Oil Refinery in Kenya, Dangote Group is reinforcing its role as a key driver of Africa’s economic transformation, energy security, industrial development and regional integration.
Photo Caption: From Left – Kenya President, Dr. William Samoel Ruto; Group Vice President, Oil & Gas and Fertiliser, Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin; and President/CE, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote during the Kenya President’s Visit to Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Petrochemicals and Fertiliser Plant Lekki, Lagos on Friday 25th September 2026.
Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has called for stronger international investment partnerships as he pitched Lagos as a strategic gateway for global investment into Africa.
Sanwo-Olu made the call while speaking at the Global Africa Business Initiative’s Unstoppable Africa 2026 in New York, where global business leaders, investors, policymakers and heads of government gathered to discuss ways of strengthening African businesses and expanding the continent’s economies.
The 2026 edition of the event was held on September 20 and 21 at the New York Marriott Marquis, on the sidelines of the opening of the 81st United Nations General Assembly.
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The governor highlighted Lagos’ large population, expanding market, infrastructure needs, entrepreneurial ecosystem and strategic position as key factors that create opportunities for investors seeking to participate in Africa’s economic growth.
Sanwo-Olu stressed that Lagos’ growing global relevance should translate into tangible benefits for residents through investments in infrastructure, transportation, healthcare, enterprise development and other sectors.
He said the state remained open to international capital, strategic partnerships and private-sector participation, with the goal of building partnerships capable of delivering measurable economic value across Lagos.
According to the governor, Lagos is pursuing a development agenda that combines long-term economic growth with efforts to address the everyday needs of its residents while creating an environment where businesses can establish, expand and compete.
A key feature of the governor’s presentation was the promotion of Invest Lagos, the flagship investment promotion initiative of the Lagos State Ministry of Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment.
The engagement followed the successful Invest Lagos 3.0 summit held in Lagos in June under the theme, “Lagos: The Business Gateway to Africa.”
The summit brought together global investors, policymakers, development institutions and business leaders to explore opportunities in infrastructure, manufacturing, technology, trade, finance and the creative economy.
Sanwo-Olu’s participation at Unstoppable Africa 2026 further provided an international platform for Lagos to showcase its investment opportunities and seek partnerships aimed at attracting global capital to the state.
The Nigerian equities market closed Friday’s trading session on a negative note, with the All-Share Index declining by 0.38 per cent to close at 252,113.41 points.
According to the Nigerian Exchange Group’s Daily Market Snapshot for Friday, September 25, 2026, equity market capitalisation stood at ₦163.65 trillion, representing a 0.01 per cent decline.
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The fixed-income market capitalisation also fell by 0.01 per cent to ₦58.74 trillion, while the market capitalisation of Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) declined by 2.15 per cent to ₦57.77 billion.
Meanwhile, the top five gainers were led by a stock that rose 10 per cent to close at ₦17.60, followed by CMFC, which gained 9.76 per cent to ₦3.26. Briscoe rose 9.74 per cent to ₦10.70, ABC Transport gained 9.68 per cent to ₦5.10, while Royal Exchange increased by 9.09 per cent to ₦1.08.
The figures were contained in the NGX Daily Market Snapshot released at the close of trading on Friday.
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