Energy
NUPRC Aims for 5.13bn Barrels Deepwater Oil Reserves
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) aims to unlock 5.13 billion barrels of deepwater oil reserves, with a goal to boost Nigeria’s oil production by an additional 810,000 barrels per day (bpd).
According to Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Gbenga Komolafe, Nigeria aims to rejuvenate its offshore oil production and reinforce its standing as a key player in the global energy landscape.
He bared his mind at a stakeholders’ workshop on deep/shallow water cluster/nodal development in Abuja on Thursday.
Komolafe who was represented by the executive commissioner for Economic Regulation and Strategic Planning, Babajide Fashina, said the plan was conceived in response to the industry’s dwindling offshore output and the need to harness untapped reserves for sustainable growth.
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He highlighted the significant untapped potential within the country’s deepwater fields. While Nigeria’s offshore exploration has been successful with major fields such as Banga, Agbami, Erha, and Egina, deepwater production has declined from its 2016 peak of 800,000 bpd to less than 500,000 bpd, currently contributing about 26 per cent of total national output.
“The data shows more than 5.13 billion barrels of oil and 13.53 trillion cubic feet of natural gas remain undeveloped in our deepwater reserves,” Komolafe said. “Embedded in this are 3.59 billion barrels of proven and probable oil and condensate reserves along with approximately 13.53 trillion cubic feet of non-associated gas.”
To capitalise on this vast opportunity, NUPRC has set up the Shallow and Deepwater Cluster Development Committee, tasked with working alongside operators like Star Deepwater, ESSO, Nigeria Agip Exploration, Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company, and Total Energies to accelerate cluster or nodal developments in deepwater fields.
Execution of approved Field Development Plans (FDPs) alone could yield an increase of up to 810,000 bpd in peak production.
Currently, Nigeria averages 1.75 million barrels per day in oil and condensate output, which falls short of the technical potential of 2.2 million bpd. The Commission called on industry stakeholders to intensify collaboration and innovation to bridge this production gap.
“The Commission is committed to unlocking these deepwater resources in a safe, productive, and sustainable manner to secure our nation’s energy future and economic prosperity,” Komolafe said.
The event was themed, “Harnessing the potential of deep/shallow water, oil and gas accumulations through clusters/nodal development in Nigeria.”
“At the peak of our deepwater oil production in 2016, Nigeria was producing about 800,000 barrels of oil per day. Sadly, that figure has now dropped to below 500,000 barrels per day,” he said.
“Our data shows that we have over 5.13 billion barrels of oil and 13.53 trillion cubic feet of gas still sitting untapped in our deepwater acreages. Of this, 3.59 billion barrels fall under 2P reserves, meaning they are proven and probable but yet undeveloped,” Komolafe explained.
He disclosed that a preliminary regulatory deep-dive through the Field Development Plan approvals indicates that current developments-in-view could unlock around 1.55 billion barrels of oil and condensate and another 1.49 trillion cubic feet of associated gas.
“Once these approved FDPs are executed, we could see peak oil production rise by as much as 810,000 barrels of oil per day. The question we must ask is: what’s holding us back, and how can we overcome the barriers together?” he queried.
The Commission boss said a new Shallow and Deepwater Cluster Development Committee had been inaugurated within the NUPRC to work closely with international oil companies and indigenous producers to identify and mature these opportunities.
“Our goal is not just more production, but more value. Through this collaborative approach, we want to maximise returns from existing assets, ramp up volumes, and reduce unit technical costs,” he noted.
Komolafe lamented that deepwater fields, despite their huge potential, had become underutilised due to challenges such as funding gaps, infrastructure limitations, regulatory bottlenecks and delayed project sanctions.
“Our eight FPSOs, Floating Production Storage and Offloading units, are grossly underutilised today. We can do more if we work together,” he said.
He added that deep offshore reserves currently account for 18 per cent of Nigeria’s total oil and condensate reserves, with major discoveries such as Bonga, Agbami, Egina, and Erha fields leading the way.
“Today, we have cumulatively produced over 4.4 billion barrels from our deepwater operations, thanks to companies like Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Agip and Chevron. But we must now move beyond the past and look toward unlocking future barrels,” Komolafe said.
While commending industry stakeholders for their cooperation, he stressed the need for faster project development timelines, saying: “It is time for kinetic interventions, practical steps that will bring results, not more rhetoric.”
The NUPRC boss also disclosed that Nigeria’s average year-to-date crude oil and condensate production currently stands at 1.75 million barrels per day, which is below the country’s technical potential of 2.2 million bpd.
“We believe Nigeria can do much more. This cluster development framework is a realistic step toward bridging the gap and achieving our production targets,” he said.
Komolafe urged operators to embrace the Commission’s collaborative model and commit to delivering results that would drive energy security, economic stability, and prosperity for all stakeholders.
“It’s not just about barrels; it’s about shared value creation. Through strategic development of our shallow and deepwater assets, we can lift the entire economy,” he added.
In his technical presentation, the Executive Commissioner for Development and Production at NUPRC, Enorense Amadasu, said unlocking the production would rely on executing already-approved Field Development Plans and adopting new cost-saving frameworks.
“Execution of the approved development plans in deep offshore fields is expected to bring in an additional 810,000 barrels per day,” Amadasu stated. “This is not just theoretical. We already have projects like Bonga North that have taken Final Investment Decisions, and several more are in view—Owowo, Zaba Zaba, Eta, NAE, and others.”
Amadasu noted that while Nigeria has offered 31 deepwater blocks between 2022 and 2024, including seven deep offshore blocks in the 2022 mini-bid round and 24 licenses with two continental shelf awards in 2024, actual production volumes have failed to reflect the potential.
He said multiple challenges including high technology costs, uneconomic standalone developments, and delays in Final Investment Decisions have slowed progress.
“Suboptimal project economics mean that many of these assets are not viable if developed in isolation. That’s why we’re pushing for cluster or nodal development, where operators collaborate to share infrastructure, reduce cost, and deliver value,” he explained.
The NUPRC has already set up a Deepwater Cluster Development Committee, made up of technical and commercial experts, to identify viable groupings of assets and map out a path toward joint development. According to Amadasu, a wider industry-wide committee will be inaugurated soon with subcommittees focused on infrastructure, subsurface validation, economics, and policy needs.
“We have identified over 20 key deepwater assets, Owowo, Nsiko, Bolia, Aparo, Bonga South West, Doro, Sheki, Akpo West, and others. While some may lack scale individually, they can become viable if developed together,” he said.
On government incentives, Amadasu cited ongoing interventions, including zero hydrocarbon tax on deepwater fields under the Petroleum Industry Act, as well as Presidential Directives 40, 41 and 42. These directives respectively addressed tax incentives for non-associated gas, accelerated local content compliance, and cost reductions in contracting cycles.
“Despite fiscal reliefs such as zero per cent hydrocarbon tax on deepwater assets and reduced rates for other lease types, 15 per cent for PPLs and 30 per cent for BMLs, we still haven’t unlocked the full value,” he said. “That’s why this collaborative workshop is critical.”
“Let’s be honest, without deepwater volumes, we cannot lift our national production. If we don’t act now, in the next five years, we’ll struggle badly as an upstream nation,” he warned.
A call has gone to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) the members of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) to start participating in the next oil block licensing round as a strategic option for securing affordable crude feedstock for their refineries.
The Chief Executive, NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, made the on Wednesday during a courtesy visit by members of CORAN to the Commission’s headquarters in Jabi, Abuja, where both parties held discussions on strengthening domestic refining capacity, crude supply sustainability, and collaboration between upstream producers and local refiners.
According to Eyesan greater participation of indigenous refiners in upstream asset ownership would help create more stable and commercially viable crude supply arrangements, while also deepening local participation across the petroleum value chain.
She further assured members of CORAN that Nigeria has sufficient crude resources to support domestic refining ambitions and reiterated the Commission’s commitment to promoting policies that prioritize in-country value addition.
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Eyesan therefore encouraged refinery operators to enter into long-term crude supply contracts with producers as a practical mechanism for ensuring predictable feedstock availability, operational planning, and pricing stability.
The NUPRC Chief however, acknowledged that infrastructure limitations must be tackled before the country can witness seamless crude supply to local refineries. She identified issues such as inadequate pipeline networks, evacuation bottlenecks, storage constraints, marine logistics, and other supply chain gaps as areas requiring urgent investment and coordinated action.
Members of CORAN used the visit to commend the Commission’s ongoing regulatory reforms and its support for domestic refining development, while also emphasizing the need for stronger implementation of frameworks that guarantee regular crude supply to local plants.
Industry stakeholders have increasingly argued that improved access to crude feedstock remains central to reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, strengthening energy security, conserving foreign exchange, and creating jobs through the growth of local refining capacity.
The meeting is seen as another step in ongoing engagements between regulators and private refinery operators aimed at unlocking the full potential of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
Nigeria’s gas industry supplied 62 percent of gas produced to foreign markets in the first quarter of 2026, though the domestic demand remained largely unmet.
This was detailed in data from factsheets by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), an average of 4.832 bscf/day was produced during the quarter but allocations increasingly skewed toward exports — leaving power generation, industries, and households under pressure.
The factsheet showed that while production remained relatively stable — January (4.837 bscf/day), February (4.771 bscf/day), and March (4.888 bscf/day) — domestic utilization steadily weakened as export demand intensified.
In contrast, average daily gas supplied to the domestic market dropped to 1.906 bscf/day in January, 1.763 bscf/day in February, and 1.855 bscf/day in March, indicating that the local market is increasingly treated as a balancing segment — absorbing cuts whenever export demand rises.
At the center of this shift is the Nigeria LNG Limited, which saw gas supply to its six operational trains rise consistently from 2.931 bscf/day in January to 3.018 bscf/day in February and 3.033 bscf/day in March.
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By March, NLNG alone accounted for about 62% of total gas exports, significantly tightening volumes available for domestic use.
The factsheet showed that sharp decline in gas allocations to thermal power plants nationwide is driven primarily by allocation and offtake decisions rather than any underlying supply shortage.
Gas-to-power supply declined sharply by 25% within one quarter, dropping from 0.648 bscf/day in January to 0.536 bscf/day in February and 0.485 bscf/day in March.
This contraction directly correlates with persistent grid instability and electricity shortfalls nationwide witnessed during the quarter.
Average daily gas supply to industrial users remained largely flat — 0.431 bscf/day in January, 0.440 bscf/day in February, and 0.430 bscf/day in March — indicating that constraints on manufacturing and petrochemical output stem less from infrastructure limitations and more from inconsistent allocation of gas.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s cooking gas market tipped into deficit.
Supply, which stood at 5,110 MT/day in January and 4,703 MT/day in February, failed to keep pace with demand in March, where 4,726 MT/day supply lagged behind 5,122 MT/day consumption, resulting in an approximately 400 MT/day shortfall.
This tightening supply to demand balance has sustained high retail prices, which ranges from N950/kg to N1,550/kg during the quarter, thereby forcing many households to revert to alternative fuels such as charcoal and firewood.
Commercial gas supply showed moderate volatility, rising from 0.573 bscf/day in January to 0.628 bscf/day in February, before easing to 0.601 bscf/day in March, showing uncertainty in supply planning for commercial users — particularly in emerging segments such as CNG-based transportation.
In contrast, supply to gas-based industries — including fertilizer, petrochemicals, and manufacturing — remained largely flat at 0.431 bscf/day in January, 0.440 bscf/day in February, and 0.430 bscf/day in March, pointing to stagnation in industrial feedstock availability.
This suggests that constraints are driven less by processing capacity and more by inconsistent and unreliable gas allocation.
Despite the Petroleum Industry Act’s intent to safeguard domestic supply through delivery obligations, findings indicate these commitments are increasingly being sidelined, as export-oriented allocations take precedence.
On the export front, combined flows through NLNG and the West African Gas Pipeline averaged about 0.156 bscf/day in Q1, reinforcing the steady outward push.
The LNG shipments alone grew by 6.4%, rising from 52,857 MT/day in January to 56,241 MT/day in March, outpacing every domestic segment.
The Dangote Refinery supplied about 72.3 percent of Nigeria’s total domestic demand for petrol in March, while consumption fell by approximately 17 percent during the period under consideration from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres last month.
Besides, although still modest compared to last year’s massive importation, the share of petrol imports in the supply mix surged by 96.7 percent month-on-month, rising from 3 million litres per day to 5.9 million litres/day during the period.
Data from the March 2026 fact sheet on midstream and downstream petroleum operations provided by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) yesterday, showed that the 47.3 million litres per day consumption for march fell below the national average of 50 million litres per day.
Overrall, the data indicated that total domestic petrol supply stood at 34.2 million litres per day in March. When measured against total consumption of 47.3 million litres per day, this placed Dangote Refinery’s contribution at approximately 72.3 percent of the domestic market, reaffirming its dominant role in the country’s fuel supply chain.
However, the supply mix also reflected a sharp increase in the role of imports. The fact sheet showed that petrol import contribution rose from 3 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March, equivalent to a 96.7 percent jump in import share.
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However, this increase in imported petrol between February and March was despite the downstream regulator’s insistence that it has halted the issuance of import licenses to oil marketers for months.
For over a year, owner of the 650,000 barrels per day facility in Lagos, Aliko Dangote, has pushed to end petrol imports in order to, according to him, protect local refining and grow the economy. Dangote’s refinery, which began production of petrol in 2024, has argued that Nigeria’s import licensing regime undermines local refining by allowing marketers to continue bringing in petrol even when domestic supply is increasing.
The company has maintained that under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), imports should only be permitted when there is a clear supply shortfall, not as a parallel system competing with local production.
On the other hand, oil marketers and a cross section of Nigerians believe that leaving the market solely for Dangote, without any competition from any other refinery, especially from NNPC’s defunct Port Harcourt and Warri refineries will lead to a monopoly and inflated pump prices.
The NMDPRA fact sheet further showed that other domestic refining sources contributed only marginal volumes, specifically diesel refining. The three operational modular refineries: Walter Smith, Edo Refinery, and Aradel collectively supplied about 0.629 million litres per day of diesel during the month.
Walter Smith refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 59.56 per cent, supplying 0.241 million litres per day. Edo Refinery recorded 64.69 percent utilisation with 0.051 million litres per day, while Aradel posted 58.84 percent utilisation, delivering 0.337 million litres per day.
Average diesel consumption during the period stood at 14.5 million litres daily, slightly above the 14 million litres per day national benchmark, despite the rising prices as a result of the Middle East crisis, indicating sustained demand from industrial and commercial users.
Similarly, in March, aviation fuel consumption remained lower at 2.1 million litres per day compared to the 3 million litres per day benchmark for the country and against the 2.9 million litres per day supplied in February.
In the whole gas market segment, total supply averaged 4.888 Billion Standard Cubic Feet Per Day (Bscf/d). Of this, 3.033 Bscf/d was supplied to the Nigeria LNG (NLNG), representing approximately 62 percent of total gas supply.
Domestic gas supply stood at 1.855 Bscf/d, with utilisation spread across key sectors. Gas-to-power accounted for 0.485 Bscf/d, commercial consumption stood at 0.430 Bscf/d, and gas-based industries utilised 0.601 Bscf/d.
In the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) segment, the NMDPRA data indicated that demand outpaced supply during the period. Average daily supply stood at 4,726 metric tonnes, while consumption reached 5,122 metric tonnes per day, leaving a shortfall of 396 metric tonnes daily. Also, retail LPG prices ranged between N980 and N1,450 per kilogramme nationally.
Fuel sufficiency data showed that petrol stock levels stood at 21 days, including pumpable volumes at the Dangote Refinery, diesel sufficiency was 55 days, aviation fuel stood at 109 days, and LPG at 14 days.
In the same vein, the midstream and downstream regulator put the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline completion level at 79.23 per cent; OB3 River Crossing at 59.50 per cent and the Odidi-Warri Expansion Project (OWEP) at 67.34 per cent completion rate.
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