Energy
OPEC Reckons Africa is Hosting World’s Fastest Downstream Expansion
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on Friday, said Africa could add 1.2 million barrels per day to her refining capacity by 2030, which would stand out as one of the fastest downstream expansions globally.
This was contained in the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook, a new report by the global oil cartel, which noted that the medium-term growth is expected from landmark projects in Nigeria, Angola and Uganda, led by the 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is already reshaping regional fuel trade dynamics.
This, as well as the 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery, also in Nigeria; Angola’s state-driven push to bring online the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery; and 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery by 2030, the report added, signals a turning point for the continent’s energy sovereignty and investment attractiveness.
Also, Uganda’s refining ambitions are taking shape with a 60,000-bpd facility in Hoima, part of the country’s broader Lake Albert basin development plan.
The OPEC report also noted modular refinery projects in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo and Nigeria, that are enabling incremental, but scalable capacity builds in markets where infrastructure and financing hurdles persist.
In North Africa, Algeria (Hassi Messaoud), Libya (Ubari) and Egypt (Soukhna) are all advancing refinery projects aimed at capturing higher margins, improving domestic supply security and reducing dependency on imports of refined petroleum products.
Judging by these projects, the report estimates that Africa will need over $40 billion in refining investments by 2030 to meet its mid-decade objectives, adding that beyond 2030, the figure could climb steeply – requiring over $60 billion in additional investment for refinery construction, modernisation and secondary processing capacity upgrades.
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This opens a $100 billion investment window for project developers, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds and energy-focused private equity.
With nearly 86% of global refinery additions through 2050 concentrated in the Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, Africa is increasingly seen as a high-growth frontier.
Additionally, Africa’s rising domestic consumption of crude – forecast to reach 4.5 million bpd by 2050 from just 1.8 million bpd in 2024 – further underlines the case for investing in downstream infrastructure.
This consumption shift, in turn, is expected to reduce Africa’s crude exports by over one million bpd by 2050, emphasising a structural pivot toward internal value chains.
Africa’s medium-term refining expansion reflects both a technical development and strategic inflection point, which can move the continent beyond being a raw crude exporter to becoming a competitive, resilient and integrated energy producer, if the continent seizes this momentum, the report stressed.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that crude oil imports by domestic refineries rose by 151.5 percent to 5.13 million barrels in July 2026, from 2.04 million barrels in June.
In a related development, domestic crude supply to refineries fell sharply during the month.
According to the NMDPRA’s July 2026 Midstream and Downstream Statistics, local refineries received a total of 17.88 million barrels of crude in July, comprising 12.75 million barrels supplied domestically and 5.13 million barrels imported.
Imported crude therefore accounted for 28.7 percent of total crude receipts by domestic refineries in July, while domestic supplies contributed the remaining 71.3 percent.
The 5.13 million barrels imported in July represented a significant rebound from the 2.04 million barrels recorded in June. It was also higher than the 2.08 million barrels imported in May and 0.41 million barrels in April.
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However, July’s import volume remained below the 9.43 million barrels recorded in March, the highest monthly volume so far in 2026.
The data showed that crude imports stood at 0.71 million barrels in January before rising to 4.25 million barrels in February and peaking at 9.43 million barrels in March.
Imports subsequently plunged to 0.41 million barrels in April, before recovering to 2.08 million barrels in May, 2.04 million barrels in June and 5.13 million barrels in July.
The report also disclosed that domestic crude supply to refineries declined by 25.4 percent month-on-month, falling from 17.08 million barrels in June to 12.75 million barrels in July.
In January, domestic refineries received 8.83 million barrels of domestic crude and 0.71 million barrels of imported crude, bringing total receipts to 9.54 million barrels.
The figure rose to 13.13 million barrels in February, comprising 8.88 million barrels of domestic crude and 4.25 million barrels of imports.
March recorded the highest total crude receipts at 20.92 million barrels, with domestic supply contributing 11.49 million barrels and imports 9.43 million barrels.
Total receipts stood at 18.37 million barrels in April, made up of 17.96 million barrels of domestic crude and 0.41 million barrels of imports.
In May, refineries received 17.92 million barrels, comprising 15.84 million barrels of domestic crude and 2.08 million barrels of imports, while June recorded 19.12 million barrels, made up of 17.08 million barrels of domestic crude and 2.04 million barrels of imports.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE has increased the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) from N1,185 to N1,200 per litre, effective August 26, 2026.
In an official communication to customers issued on Tuesday, the refinery’s Group Commercial Operations announced revised depot prices for gantry and coastal deliveries.
The email, titled ‘PMS Price Change Communication (N1,185 per Litre To N1,200 Per Litre)’, asked customers to take note of the revised DPRP PMS gantry and coastal price, which is effective 26th August 2026.
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According to the table contained in the notice, the coastal price rose from N1,562,265 per metric tonne to N1,582,380, while the gantry price increased from N1,185 to N1,200 per litre.
The refinery further directed customers to return all Authorisation to Collect documents for repricing, adding that a new volume contract would be issued for immediate loading resumption.
“You are advised to return all ATCs for repricing, and a new volume contract will be issued for immediate loading resumption. Should you require any further clarification, please do not hesitate to contact us,” the notice said.
The latest adjustment represents a N15 per litre increase in the gantry price and comes barely days after the refinery raised the price from N1,165 to N1,185 per litre. The previous increase took effect from midnight on August 21, 2026, according to industry trackers.
However, the latest hike comes against a backdrop of falling international crude oil prices. Data from oilprice.com on Tuesday showed West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $82.13 per barrel, down $2.88 or 3.39 per cent, while Brent crude stood at $88.37 per barrel, declining by $3.80 or 4.12 per cent. Murban crude also fell to $92.71 per barrel, shedding $8.73 or 8.61 per cent.
Our correspondent gathered that marketers and depot operators who received the circular might have begun returning existing ATCs for repricing in line with the refinery’s directive.
The N15 increase could result in higher pump prices as oil marketers factor in transportation, landing and other downstream costs. Petrol is expected to return to an average of N1,250 per litre.
The Dangote Group has yet to respond to messages from our correspondent.
The price increase comes at a time of renewed volatility in the international oil market amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Reuters reported that oil prices fell as investors viewed the latest US sanctions against Iran as less threatening to global oil supplies than a military escalation. However, analysts warned that the decline could be an overreaction, noting that prices could rise sharply if Iran retaliates militarily.
Reuters also reported that supply disruption risks remained, with only two commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the lowest daily tally since early May. The waterway handled about one-fifth of global oil consumption before the conflict began, leaving the market vulnerable to further disruptions.
The 31 companies that emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks in the 2025 Licensing Round must pay their signature bonuses within the stipulated period or risk losing their provisional awards.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) handed down the warning on Sunday, one month after it hosted the commercial bid conference in Abuja, where the successful companies emerged as winners of the available blocks.
The NUPRC said the process of compliance with the payment of signature bonuses had commenced following the issuance of provisional awards to the successful bidders.
“Exactly a month ago, the NUPRC hosted the 2025 commercial bid conference in Abuja where 31 companies emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks. Having issued the winners with the provisional awards, compliance with the payment of signature bonuses has already begun.
“Winners who fail to pay signature bonuses within the stipulated time frame in line with the Petroleum Industry Act will forfeit their bid guarantee and lose their provisional awards to the reserve bidders,” the NUPRC stated.
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The 37 blocks offered in the licensing round comprise Petroleum Prospecting Licences covering the Niger Delta onshore, shallow water and deep offshore areas, as well as frontier basins.
Among the blocks are PPL 2A29 to PPL 2A62 in the Niger Delta, PPL 2010 in the deep offshore, PPL 308 in the Benin Basin, PPL 900 to PPL 903 in the Anambra Basin, PPL 700 in the Chad Basin and PPL 800 and PPL 801 in the Benue Trough.
The commission also published the names of the 31 successful companies and the ranked reserve bidders for each of the 37 blocks.
A total of 143 companies participated in the licensing round, submitting about 200 bids for the 37 blocks. However, 13 of the 50 blocks initially put up for bidding attracted no bids.
Under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and the applicable licensing guidelines, successful bidders are required to pay signature bonuses ranging from $3m to $7m per block.
They are also expected to provide the required guarantees, pay first-year rents and satisfy other post-award conditions within the prescribed period. Failure to meet the requirements will result in the automatic transfer of the affected award to the next-ranked reserve bidder, according to the NUPRC.
The commission’s Chief Executive Officer, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, had earlier urged the successful bidders to make the required payments without delay and commence development of the awarded assets.
The NUPRC urged interested members of the public and stakeholders to visit the 2025 Licensing Round portal for further information on the awards and compliance requirements.
Under the PIA 2021 guidelines, winning bidders are required to pay their signature bonuses within a strict 90-day window. Since provisional award letters were issued immediately following the commercial bid conference on July 21, 2026, it means 30 days have already elapsed, and companies have 60 days left to remit the funds.
This shows that the regulator expects the signature bonuses to be paid on or before October 19, 2026.
If a winning company fails to complete the payment of its statutory signature bonus along with first-year rent within this 90-day window, the company automatically forfeits its bid guarantee. The provisional award will be revoked and immediately reassigned to the designated reserve bidder for the asset.
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