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OPEC Reckons Africa is Hosting World’s Fastest Downstream Expansion

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OPEC Appoints Next Secretary General, Effective August 2022

 

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on Friday, said Africa could add 1.2 million barrels per day to her refining capacity by 2030, which would stand out as one of the fastest downstream expansions globally.

This was contained in the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook, a new report by the global oil cartel, which noted that the medium-term growth is expected from landmark projects in Nigeria, Angola and Uganda, led by the 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is already reshaping regional fuel trade dynamics.

This, as well as the 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery, also in Nigeria; Angola’s state-driven push to bring online the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery; and 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery by 2030, the report added, signals a turning point for the continent’s energy sovereignty and investment attractiveness.

Also, Uganda’s refining ambitions are taking shape with a 60,000-bpd facility in Hoima, part of the country’s broader Lake Albert basin development plan.

The OPEC report also noted modular refinery projects in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo and Nigeria, that are enabling incremental, but scalable capacity builds in markets where infrastructure and financing hurdles persist.

In North Africa, Algeria (Hassi Messaoud), Libya (Ubari) and Egypt (Soukhna) are all advancing refinery projects aimed at capturing higher margins, improving domestic supply security and reducing dependency on imports of refined petroleum products.

Judging by these projects, the report estimates that Africa will need over $40 billion in refining investments by 2030 to meet its mid-decade objectives, adding that beyond 2030, the figure could climb steeply – requiring over $60 billion in additional investment for refinery construction, modernisation and secondary processing capacity upgrades.

ALSO READ: NNPCL, Partners Ink 20-year 1.29bscf/d Feedgas Supply Deals

This opens a $100 billion investment window for project developers, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds and energy-focused private equity.

With nearly 86% of global refinery additions through 2050 concentrated in the Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, Africa is increasingly seen as a high-growth frontier.

Additionally, Africa’s rising domestic consumption of crude – forecast to reach 4.5 million bpd by 2050 from just 1.8 million bpd in 2024 – further underlines the case for investing in downstream infrastructure.

This consumption shift, in turn, is expected to reduce Africa’s crude exports by over one million bpd by 2050, emphasising a structural pivot toward internal value chains.

Africa’s medium-term refin­ing expansion reflects both a technical development and strategic inflection point, which can move the continent beyond being a raw crude exporter to becoming a competitive, resilient and integrated energy producer, if the continent seizes this momentum, the report stressed.

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Energy

Two Vessels Cross Hormuz Amid War Tensions

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Two commercial vessels have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing tensions in the Gulf, as Iran submitted its response to a United States proposal aimed at ending the war and reopening peace talks.

Iranian state media reported on Sunday that Tehran’s response was transmitted through Pakistan, which has been mediating between both sides.

According to Iranian state television, the response focused on ending hostilities “on all fronts”, particularly in Lebanon, and guaranteeing the safety of maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. The report, however, did not specify when or how the strait would fully reopen to international shipping.

The development came after Washington proposed halting the fighting before broader negotiations on contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme. Reuters reports that there was no immediate reaction from the United States government.

The Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled about one-fifth of global oil supplies, has remained one of the most volatile flashpoints in the conflict, with Tehran restricting non-Iranian vessels from transiting the route.

Despite the tension, it was reported that the QatarEnergy-operated liquefied natural gas carrier, Al Kharaitiyat, safely crossed the strait and headed for Pakistan’s Port Qasim, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler.

ALSO READ: On Tinubu’s Directive, NNPC Ltd, NUPRC Remit N322bn, $116.9m to FAAC

The vessel became the first Qatari LNG carrier to transit the strait since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran on February 28.

Sources familiar with the arrangement said Iran approved the shipment to help ease Pakistan’s worsening electricity shortages caused by disrupted gas imports and to build confidence with both Qatar and Pakistan, which have been involved in mediation efforts.

Also on Sunday, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that a Panama-flagged bulk carrier bound for Brazil passed through the strait using a designated route approved by Iranian armed forces after an earlier failed attempt on May 4.

The passage of the vessels came amid continuing regional security threats.

Meanwhile, as tensions persist around the strategic waterway, Britain announced that it was deploying HMS Dragon, one of the Royal Navy’s six Type 45 destroyers, to the Middle East ahead of a possible multinational mission to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence, the warship would “pre-position” in the region for a “potential role” in a future “strictly defensive and independent” operation.

BBC reports that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is championing the proposed mission alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, said the operation would only proceed after active fighting in the region ends.

The deployment comes after months of disruption in the strait, which Iran has been controlling in retaliation for attacks by the US and Israel.

HMS Dragon, designed for anti-aircraft and anti-missile warfare, recently operated in the eastern Mediterranean, where it was tasked with protecting British air bases in Cyprus following a drone attack near RAF Akrotiri in March.

The UK Ministry of Defence said the latest deployment formed “part of prudent planning” and would allow the warship to contribute immediately to any future multinational maritime security mission.

The ministry added that the mission “provides the UK Armed Forces with additional options for the defensive multinational Hormuz mission”.

Last month, representatives from 51 countries reportedly met to discuss securing commercial shipping through the strait, with Britain and France leading discussions on a coordinated response.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is facing growing pressure to end the conflict ahead of a planned visit to China this week, amid mounting fears that the war could deepen the global energy crisis and further destabilise the world economy.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani reportedly told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi that using the Strait of Hormuz as a “pressure tool” would worsen the crisis.

According to Qatar’s foreign ministry, the prime minister stressed during a telephone conversation that “freedom of navigation should not be compromised.” Over the weekend, oil prices hovered around $100 per barrel, according to reports by Oilprice.com.

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Energy

Middle East Crisis Opens 10 Million bpd Oil Supply Window for Nigeria, African Countries

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As ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have removed an estimated 10 million barrels of oil per day from the global market, Africa, with Nigeria at the forefront, is emerging as the most viable region to help bridge the widening supply gap.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, stated this while speaking during the Africa Energy Forum at the ongoing Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas, United States.

Eyesan declared that Africa has become the new focal point of global energy discussions owing to its 125 billion barrels and 625 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, respectively, representing 10 per cent of global reserves.

She noted that the sudden shortfall has shifted global attention to under-explored regions and that the only continent that promises to fill the supply gap is Africa.

“Today, we believe that about 10 million barrels have been taken off the market in a situation where you had a slight oversupply at one time. With 10 million off the market, there’s a huge deficit. The question on everybody’s lips is where this deficit will come from. Or rather, who will fill the gap?

“Let’s x-ray the North Sea. The North Sea was prolific in the past but is declining. North America, same story. And if you layer Asia on that, it’s all decline. However, the only continent that is showing promise today is no other than Africa”, she said.

Citing discoveries and huge oil and gas reserves across the continent, she pointed to Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, and Namibia as examples.

ALSO READ: Pricing Issues See Domestic Refiners Reject $3.13bn Crude Oil

However, with such abundant reserves in Africa, she said the challenge was how to convert those opportunities into value.

For Nigeria, the NUPRC boss said the answer has been regulatory reform credited to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), enacted in 2021, which she noted was triggering a rebirth in the upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sector.

“Nigeria has experienced a rebirth since 2021 and the rebirth was instrumental to the change and the opportunities that Nigeria has today.

“The PIA has provided fiscal clarity, regulatory efficiency, contract certainty, and transparency across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments.

“The only way Africa, sitting on huge resources, can bridge that gap successfully is if we have the right regulatory systems to support the business terrain. And Nigeria is not alone in that march,” the NUPRC boss said.

In Nigeria, Eyesan said the results are already evident in investment trends compared to ten years before the PIA, when there was a steep decline in investment in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

According to her, “About 15 years before the PIA, we were comfortably spending $15 billion annually on the upstream business. This declined to less than $7 billion at some point. Today, we see an upswing.”

She told the global audience in the room that several multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) have been secured or are on the verge of being committed, including the Shell Bonga Project, the Ubeita Non-Associated Gas Project, the HI Gas Project, and the Zabazaba-Etan Field, which was expected to unlock $10.38 billion.

“These are huge projects and a signal that the tide has turned”, Eyesan stated.

In 2024 alone, she said the NUPRC approved 48 Field Development Plans (FDPs), describing that as a major index of progress in the oil and gas industry.

She said the industry has witnessed the enablements from the PIA and that opportunities were just waiting to be unlocked.

She reiterated that the ongoing licensing round, where 50 blocks are offered, and 300 companies are competing, would be concluded by the third quarter of 2026.

Eyesan also announced that another bid round would commence before the end of the 2025 bid round, saying that this was an indication that the opportunities were immense.

To support bidders, Eyesan said NUPRC was enhancing its National Data Repository with large-scale 2D and 3D seismic data acquisition through multi-client partnerships.

She expressed confidence that bidders who finally acquire the assets will work them and bring them to market in the shortest possible time.

To enable this, she explained that the data repository was also being upgraded for advanced analytics, as they seek to embrace artificial intelligence to quicken the process.

Underscoring the importance of capital investment in optimising Africa’s huge untapped oil and gas resources, Eyesan framed the continent’s energy challenge as one of infrastructure and capital rather than resources.

She recalled that Africa took the brunt during the start of the conversation on energy transition due to a lack of investment and infrastructure.

She urged investors to come and invest in the African oil and gas industry, assuring them of a quick return on their investments.

She added that Nigeria’s experience under the PIA demonstrates what was possible, saying: “The PIA has enabled a turnaround in the oil and gas industry. The opportunities are immense. The regulatory environment is there.”

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Pricing Issues See Domestic Refiners Reject $3.13bn Crude Oil

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Nigeria Earns N12.4tn from Crude Oil in 11 Months – Report

Nigeria’s local refiners could not take up an estimated $3.13bn worth of crude oil offered to them in Q1 2026.

This was gleaned from data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), which indicates that while crude producers made significant volumes available under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), refiners were unable to take delivery of a large portion due to persistent commercial and structural challenges.

The latest data showed a significant mismatch between crude availability and actual refinery offtake, despite regulatory efforts to deepen domestic refining. The figures indicate that producers collectively made available 68.7 million barrels of crude between January and March, far above allocated requirements, yet refiners struggled to convert the offers into actual deliveries.

This translates to a weak conversion rate of about 36–46 per cent, underscoring persistent structural and commercial bottlenecks in the domestic crude supply chain.

Findings showed that the total gap between crude offered and actual refinery offtake stood at 40.3 million barrels in the three-month period, with the shortfall valued at about $3.13bn using conservative average prices.

Figures released by the NUPRC indicated that while 61.9 million barrels were allocated to domestic refiners during the period, oil producers collectively offered 68.7 million barrels.

ALSO READ: NUPRC, NLNG Deepen Collaboration to Raise Gas Production

However, actual deliveries lagged significantly, with refiners lifting just 28.5 million barrels, indicating that crude producers supplied local refineries with less than half of the volumes allocated under the country’s domestic ‌crude supply rules.

The development underscores a persistent gap between crude availability and actual refinery intake, raising fresh concerns over feedstock adequacy for Nigeria’s refining ambitions.

In the press statement earlier issued by the commission, the NUPRC Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, said the data reflected ongoing efforts to enforce the DCSO in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

The statement read, “The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has released the statistics on the enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation in accordance with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.

“A summary of the monthly allocation shows that 61.9 million barrels of crude oil were allocated to domestic refineries during the quarter, while producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels. However, actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36-46 per cent as of the end of the first quarter 2026.”

A breakdown of the value of rejected crude revealed that in January, producers offered 25.3 million barrels, but refiners lifted only 9.2 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of 16.1 million barrels valued at approximately $1.09bn.

In February, out of the 19.8 million barrels offered, refiners took 9.1 million barrels, resulting in a gap of 10.7 million barrels worth about $749m. Similarly, in March, refiners lifted 10.1 million barrels from the 23.6 million barrels offered, leaving 13.5 million barrels unutilised, with an estimated value of $1.28bn.

The data underscores a persistent disconnect between crude supply and refinery demand, despite regulatory efforts to prioritise local refining under the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021.

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