OPEC Reckons Africa is Hosting World’s Fastest Downstream Expansion

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on Friday, said Africa could add 1.2 million barrels per day to her refining capacity by 2030, which would stand out as one of the fastest downstream expansions globally.

This was contained in the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook, a new report by the global oil cartel, which noted that the medium-term growth is expected from landmark projects in Nigeria, Angola and Uganda, led by the 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is already reshaping regional fuel trade dynamics.

This, as well as the 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery, also in Nigeria; Angola’s state-driven push to bring online the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery; and 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery by 2030, the report added, signals a turning point for the continent’s energy sovereignty and investment attractiveness.

Also, Uganda’s refining ambitions are taking shape with a 60,000-bpd facility in Hoima, part of the country’s broader Lake Albert basin development plan.

The OPEC report also noted modular refinery projects in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo and Nigeria, that are enabling incremental, but scalable capacity builds in markets where infrastructure and financing hurdles persist.

In North Africa, Algeria (Hassi Messaoud), Libya (Ubari) and Egypt (Soukhna) are all advancing refinery projects aimed at capturing higher margins, improving domestic supply security and reducing dependency on imports of refined petroleum products.

Judging by these projects, the report estimates that Africa will need over $40 billion in refining investments by 2030 to meet its mid-decade objectives, adding that beyond 2030, the figure could climb steeply – requiring over $60 billion in additional investment for refinery construction, modernisation and secondary processing capacity upgrades.

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This opens a $100 billion investment window for project developers, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds and energy-focused private equity.

With nearly 86% of global refinery additions through 2050 concentrated in the Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, Africa is increasingly seen as a high-growth frontier.

Additionally, Africa’s rising domestic consumption of crude – forecast to reach 4.5 million bpd by 2050 from just 1.8 million bpd in 2024 – further underlines the case for investing in downstream infrastructure.

This consumption shift, in turn, is expected to reduce Africa’s crude exports by over one million bpd by 2050, emphasising a structural pivot toward internal value chains.

Africa’s medium-term refin­ing expansion reflects both a technical development and strategic inflection point, which can move the continent beyond being a raw crude exporter to becoming a competitive, resilient and integrated energy producer, if the continent seizes this momentum, the report stressed.