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Race Tied: Harris, Trump Split Evenly At 47% In Final CNN Poll

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In the final CNN/SSRS poll ahead of the 2024 election, the presidential race remains a dead heat, with both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump drawing 47% of support among likely voters.

The poll underscores the highly polarized nature of this year’s election, with both candidates maintaining steady support throughout a shortened and intense campaign.

Stable Support Throughout the Campaign

CNN’s polling has consistently shown a tight contest between Harris and Trump. In September, likely voters split at 48% for Harris and 47% for Trump, echoing today’s figures.

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Even over the summer, shortly after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, the candidates’ numbers remained close. In that survey, Trump held a narrow edge with 49% support from registered voters, compared to Harris’s 46%.

This election marks a departure for Trump, who has not trailed outside the margin of error in CNN polling since Biden’s departure from the race.

In his previous campaigns, Trump regularly trailed his opponents by larger margins at different points in the election cycle.

Few Undecided Voters, Deep Commitment to Candidates

The poll shows that 85% of likely voters made up their minds early about which party they would support, with just 15% switching their choice along the way.

As the campaign draws to a close, only 2% of likely voters remain undecided, while another 9% say they could still change their minds. Voters who have locked in their decisions are nearly evenly divided, with 50% backing Harris and 49% Trump.

Those open to switching tilt slightly toward Trump and include a larger share of minor-party and independent candidates (38% Trump, 31% Harris, 30% other).

Motivation among voters also varies. Among those committed to their candidate, 70% are “extremely motivated” to vote, compared to just 27% among those who might change their minds.

Harris Leads Among Early Voters, Trump Gains Among Election Day Voters

The poll, conducted October 20-23, highlights a significant trend as early voting and absentee ballots are underway.

About 20% of likely voters report having already cast their ballots, and among them, 61% support Harris while 36% support Trump.

However, among those who have yet to vote, Trump holds a 50% to 44% edge.

Mixed Reviews of Biden Presidency and Public Mood

The election season is unfolding amid negative views on President Biden’s term and a pervasive sense of dissatisfaction with the country’s direction.

Nearly half (49%) say they are worse off financially than a year ago, a notable rise from 41% who said the same earlier this year. Only 32% believe things in the U.S. are going well—a low not seen since 2008, when the country was in economic crisis.

Biden’s approval ratings are also underwater at 36%, while 64% disapprove. Among likely voters who disapprove of Biden’s performance, 19% say they will support Harris—a level of loyalty rare for vice presidents running for the top office.

Favorability Challenges for Both Candidates

Registered voters view both candidates unfavorably overall, with Harris holding a 41% favorability rating and Trump close at 41%, both with higher unfavorable ratings (52% for Harris, 54% for Trump).

The candidates’ running mates, JD Vance for Trump and Tim Walz for Harris, are less familiar to the public, with Walz viewed evenly (34% favorable, 34% unfavorable) and Vance viewed more negatively (33% favorable, 43% unfavorable).

Harris supporters are mostly motivated by a positive view of her (54%), though 45% are voting mainly to oppose Trump—a figure that has grown by 5 points since September.

Trump’s base is more consolidated, with 73% saying their vote is to support him directly rather than to oppose Harris.

Voter Opinions on Candidate Qualities and Issue Handling

Voters give Harris an edge on qualities like caring about people (43% Harris, 37% Trump), honesty and trustworthiness (41% Harris, 29% Trump), and putting the country’s interests above her own (45% Harris, 39% Trump).

Trump, however, holds a lead on delivering change (44% Trump, 38% Harris) and sharing voters’ vision for the country (43% Trump, 39% Harris).

Notably, 29% of voters believe neither candidate is honest, with those voters breaking for Trump 58% to 25%.

Harris, meanwhile, leads among voters who say neither candidate would bring necessary change (52% Harris to 23% Trump).

Voters remain divided on Trump’s temperament (56% cite it as a reason to vote against him) and the criminal charges he faces (51% cite as a concern).

Harris is viewed more positively on these fronts, with 45% citing her temperament as a reason to vote for her.

Trump’s record as president is seen nearly evenly as a reason to vote for (45%) or against him (43%), and he maintains a positive perception for his business record.

Key Issues Show Sharp Divides

Trump holds a strong lead on handling the economy (50% to Harris’ 37%) and immigration (50% to 34%), while Harris is more trusted on abortion (52% to 31%) and protecting democracy (45% to 41%).

Voters who see abortion as a deciding factor rose to 31% this poll, compared to 26% who view immigration the same way.

Demographic Divides and Congressional Outlook

Harris leads with women (50% to 44%), younger voters under 35 (51% to 41%), and people of color, including a wide 79% to 13% lead among Black voters. Suburban voters lean Harris by a narrow 52% to 44%, especially suburban women (55% to 41%).

Trump is supported by men (51% to 45%), white voters (55% to 41%), rural communities (64% to 31%), and those who did not vote in 2020 (50% to 40%). White voters without a college degree back Trump 62% to 34%, while those with a degree are nearly split.

Looking toward Congress, the poll shows no clear advantage, with 48% supporting the Republican candidate in their district compared to 45% for Democrats.

The CNN/SSRS poll was conducted online and by phone October 20-23, surveying 1,704 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points for the full sample and 3.1 points for likely voters.

 

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ICC Issues Arrest Warrants For Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Others

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has taken a historic step, issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

The charges include crimes against humanity and war crimes allegedly committed during Israel’s recent assault on Gaza.

In a detailed statement, the ICC accused the Israeli leaders of “intentionally and knowingly depriving the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies, as well as fuel and electricity.”

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The ICC’s move marks a significant escalation in international scrutiny of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Netanyahu and Gallant are alleged to have orchestrated policies that caused severe harm to the civilian population in Gaza, leading to widespread condemnation from human rights organizations.

Alongside the charges against Israeli officials, the ICC also issued an arrest warrant for Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif. Deif has long been a central figure in Hamas’s military operations. Israel’s military claims to have killed him in a July airstrike, although this has not been independently verified.

The warrants highlight growing calls for accountability amid the ongoing conflict in the region. The ICC’s actions are likely to provoke heated debate and may complicate diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the crisis.

With the warrants issued, global attention now turns to how the international community will respond and whether any practical steps will be taken to enforce them.

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COP29: Climate Summit Faces Deadlock Over Vague Funding Proposals For Vulnerable Nations

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As the 29th United Nations Climate Change Summit (COP29) nears its conclusion, tensions are rising over a newly published funding proposal aimed at assisting developing nations in addressing climate-induced crises.

The proposal, released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on Thursday, has sparked widespread debate among delegations, activists, and observers at the summit.

The document, spanning ten pages, outlines funding options to support developing countries in implementing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

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However, it fails to specify how much wealthier nations are required to contribute annually—a key sticking point that has drawn criticism from the Global South and climate advocates.

Ambiguity in Funding Commitments

Critics argue that the absence of concrete figures undermines the credibility of the proposed framework.

Mohamed Adow, Founder and Director of Power Shift Africa, described the proposal as “a blank piece of paper,” highlighting the lack of clarity on financial commitments.

“This is the ‘finance COP.’ We came here to talk about money. The way you measure money is with numbers. We need a cheque, but all we have right now is a blank piece of paper,” Adow remarked during an interview.

The Global South, led by African delegations, is demanding at least $1.3 trillion annually by the end of the decade to adapt to climate change impacts and transition to sustainable energy systems.

Yet, developed nations have yet to commit to a specific annual figure, raising concerns over the summit’s ability to deliver tangible outcomes.

Key Provisions and Concerns

The new text acknowledges the disproportionate impact of climate change on developing nations and the financial barriers they face, including high costs of capital and limited fiscal space.

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It proposes the establishment of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, suggesting a framework of “at least USD [X] trillion annually” from 2025 to 2035.

However, the absence of defined numbers has led to frustration among negotiators.

David Tong, Global Industry Campaign Manager at Oil Change International, emphasized the critical role of finance in achieving meaningful progress.

“Without finance, there is no phase-out [of fossil fuels], no energy transition, no adaptation. The ambitious options are simply missing,” Tong stated during a press briefing.

Rising Frustration from the Global South

Delegates from the Global South have expressed dissatisfaction with what they perceive as weak commitments from developed nations.

Many fear that without concrete financial pledges, the summit’s outcomes may fall short of expectations.

“This summit is about delivering justice to those who suffer most from climate impacts. Wealthy nations must step up and provide the necessary funding,” said an African negotiator, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A Critical Juncture

With less than 48 hours remaining in the summit, the stakes are high. The COP29 negotiations in Baku, dubbed the “finance COP,” are expected to set a precedent for addressing the financial needs of vulnerable nations.

Delegates are calling on world leaders to finalize an ambitious NCQG target and bridge the growing divide between developed and developing nations.

 

 

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Biden Approves Anti-Personnel Mines For Ukraine

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In a significant policy move, U.S. President Joe Biden has authorised the transfer of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, signaling heightened support for the country amid its ongoing struggle against Russian forces.

The decision underscores the administration’s commitment to bolstering Ukraine’s defensive capabilities as the conflict shows no signs of abating.

This announcement follows reports that Ukrainian forces have employed U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to conduct precision strikes within Russian territory.

These developments have reportedly prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to modify elements of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, further intensifying global scrutiny of the conflict’s escalation.

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In addition to the mines, the U.S. is set to unveil a new $275 million military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days. The package is expected to include a range of munitions and equipment aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s operational readiness.

This move aligns with Washington’s broader strategy to maintain robust support for Kyiv, even as questions loom over potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy with the approaching transition to a new administration.

The U.S. government has remained steadfast in its support for Ukraine, with officials emphasizing that these measures are essential for helping Ukraine defend its sovereignty. The provision of anti-personnel mines, however, marks a controversial step, reflecting the urgency of the situation on the ground.

As the conflict continues, the Biden administration’s decisions will likely have profound implications not only for Ukraine but also for the broader geopolitical landscape, where tensions remain high and outcomes uncertain.

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