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Renewed US-Iran Tensions Drag Oil Price Northwards

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After the United States carried out what it described as defensive strikes in southern Iran, which put fresh question marks over the fragile ceasefire and ongoing peace talks between Washington and Tehran, oil prices spiralled on Tuesday.

The world is taken aback because the strikes came in the midst of hopes that both countries were nearing an agreement to end the three-month war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the free movement of oil shipments.

Consequently, from about $97 per barrel on Monday, global benchmark Brent crude futures rose by roughly 3.5 percent on Tuesday to around $100 per barrel.

According to reports, US forces struck missile-launch sites and other targets in southern Iran on Monday, even as the Donald Trump administration signalled that a peace agreement between the two sides could be close.

In a statement, the US Central Command said the attacks were defensive in nature. “US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines,” CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said.

Reacting, Iran accused the United States of violating the ceasefire with the strikes. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the attacks in the southern Hormozgan province, where Iranian media reported explosions early on Tuesday, amounted to a “gross violation” of the fragile ceasefire that has been in place for nearly seven weeks, according to Reuters.

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Both sides had earlier indicated progress on a memorandum of understanding that could halt the war and restore shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz, while giving negotiators 60 days to address more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme.

Reports also indicated that Iranian negotiators had pushed for the proposed agreement to include the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets during talks held in Qatar.

The war, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, has triggered a major oil supply shock, increasing the costs of fuel, fertiliser, and food globally. Iran had responded to the attacks by launching drones and missiles at Gulf states hosting US military bases.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, has remained significantly below normal levels since the conflict began.

Although diplomatic efforts are continuing, there are growing fears that the latest US strikes could further escalate tensions in the Middle East and disrupt global energy supplies.

Energy

At 92% Completion, NLNG Train 7 Nears Pre-commissioning Phase

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The seventh gas liquefaction train of the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited is on the verge of completion, having reached 92 percent of project stages.

The plant which aligns with existing trains at the company’s gas processing complex in Bonny Island, Rivers State, will propel Nigeria’s LNG production capacity with additional 8.0 million tons per annum (mtpa) from current 22 mtpa to 30 mpta upon completion.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, NLNG, Adeleye Falade, made the revelation at a forum hosted by the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) in Lagos.

According to him, the $7.0 billion project driven by Saipem, Chiyoda, Daewoo continues to enjoy broad support from the presidency and industry regulators.

In a presentation delivered on his behalf at the event, Falade stated that the project has so far consumed a significant 120 million man hours out of the target 200 million man hours of mostly indigenous labour.

He also declared that the company has enhanced all safety measures on the construction site after recording two lost time on injury (LTI) incidents. He assured that the project contractors are prioritizing workplace safety as the project drives to pre-commissioning stages.

Mr Falade, whose presentation was delivered by Train 7 Project Manager, Ali Uwais, also noted that the Train 7 project has helped galvanize local investment in steel fabrication and galvanizing capabilities, pointing at the 4000 tons of steel already deployed in the project.

He also pointed to the spur effect in the domestic cable manufacturing industry, stating that all cables used in the project are manufactured in Nigeria. He, however, added that additional interventions are required to close quality gaps in the local manufacturing industry.

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In noting the urgent need for in-country standard accountabilities, Mr Falade challenged agencies and regulators in the manufacturing industry to rise to the plate of ensuring international competitiveness on product quality.’

In counting some of the interventions driven by the company to close capacity and capability gaps in the domestic industry, he noted that the NLNG is relentless in establishing centers of excellence in tertiary institutions in the country with the purpose of addressing human capacity deficits.

The Train 7 project alone, he pointed out, has facilitated the training of 13,000 Nigerians, bolstered community focused participation initiatives, and facilitated rapid infrastructure development in the host Bonny Island.

Mr Falade told the industry audience at the event that the real value of the Train 7 project must transcend site activities to capture capacity, facilities and infrastructure developed for the project.

He called on other players in the industry to contribute to building capacity, standards and quality that compete globally, adding that Train 7 proves that Nigeria can grow and develop to global standards.

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Energy

Two Vessels Cross Hormuz Amid War Tensions

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Two commercial vessels have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing tensions in the Gulf, as Iran submitted its response to a United States proposal aimed at ending the war and reopening peace talks.

Iranian state media reported on Sunday that Tehran’s response was transmitted through Pakistan, which has been mediating between both sides.

According to Iranian state television, the response focused on ending hostilities “on all fronts”, particularly in Lebanon, and guaranteeing the safety of maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. The report, however, did not specify when or how the strait would fully reopen to international shipping.

The development came after Washington proposed halting the fighting before broader negotiations on contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme. Reuters reports that there was no immediate reaction from the United States government.

The Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled about one-fifth of global oil supplies, has remained one of the most volatile flashpoints in the conflict, with Tehran restricting non-Iranian vessels from transiting the route.

Despite the tension, it was reported that the QatarEnergy-operated liquefied natural gas carrier, Al Kharaitiyat, safely crossed the strait and headed for Pakistan’s Port Qasim, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler.

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The vessel became the first Qatari LNG carrier to transit the strait since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran on February 28.

Sources familiar with the arrangement said Iran approved the shipment to help ease Pakistan’s worsening electricity shortages caused by disrupted gas imports and to build confidence with both Qatar and Pakistan, which have been involved in mediation efforts.

Also on Sunday, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that a Panama-flagged bulk carrier bound for Brazil passed through the strait using a designated route approved by Iranian armed forces after an earlier failed attempt on May 4.

The passage of the vessels came amid continuing regional security threats.

Meanwhile, as tensions persist around the strategic waterway, Britain announced that it was deploying HMS Dragon, one of the Royal Navy’s six Type 45 destroyers, to the Middle East ahead of a possible multinational mission to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence, the warship would “pre-position” in the region for a “potential role” in a future “strictly defensive and independent” operation.

BBC reports that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is championing the proposed mission alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, said the operation would only proceed after active fighting in the region ends.

The deployment comes after months of disruption in the strait, which Iran has been controlling in retaliation for attacks by the US and Israel.

HMS Dragon, designed for anti-aircraft and anti-missile warfare, recently operated in the eastern Mediterranean, where it was tasked with protecting British air bases in Cyprus following a drone attack near RAF Akrotiri in March.

The UK Ministry of Defence said the latest deployment formed “part of prudent planning” and would allow the warship to contribute immediately to any future multinational maritime security mission.

The ministry added that the mission “provides the UK Armed Forces with additional options for the defensive multinational Hormuz mission”.

Last month, representatives from 51 countries reportedly met to discuss securing commercial shipping through the strait, with Britain and France leading discussions on a coordinated response.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is facing growing pressure to end the conflict ahead of a planned visit to China this week, amid mounting fears that the war could deepen the global energy crisis and further destabilise the world economy.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani reportedly told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi that using the Strait of Hormuz as a “pressure tool” would worsen the crisis.

According to Qatar’s foreign ministry, the prime minister stressed during a telephone conversation that “freedom of navigation should not be compromised.” Over the weekend, oil prices hovered around $100 per barrel, according to reports by Oilprice.com.

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Energy

Middle East Crisis Opens 10 Million bpd Oil Supply Window for Nigeria, African Countries

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As ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have removed an estimated 10 million barrels of oil per day from the global market, Africa, with Nigeria at the forefront, is emerging as the most viable region to help bridge the widening supply gap.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, stated this while speaking during the Africa Energy Forum at the ongoing Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas, United States.

Eyesan declared that Africa has become the new focal point of global energy discussions owing to its 125 billion barrels and 625 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, respectively, representing 10 per cent of global reserves.

She noted that the sudden shortfall has shifted global attention to under-explored regions and that the only continent that promises to fill the supply gap is Africa.

“Today, we believe that about 10 million barrels have been taken off the market in a situation where you had a slight oversupply at one time. With 10 million off the market, there’s a huge deficit. The question on everybody’s lips is where this deficit will come from. Or rather, who will fill the gap?

“Let’s x-ray the North Sea. The North Sea was prolific in the past but is declining. North America, same story. And if you layer Asia on that, it’s all decline. However, the only continent that is showing promise today is no other than Africa”, she said.

Citing discoveries and huge oil and gas reserves across the continent, she pointed to Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, and Namibia as examples.

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However, with such abundant reserves in Africa, she said the challenge was how to convert those opportunities into value.

For Nigeria, the NUPRC boss said the answer has been regulatory reform credited to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), enacted in 2021, which she noted was triggering a rebirth in the upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sector.

“Nigeria has experienced a rebirth since 2021 and the rebirth was instrumental to the change and the opportunities that Nigeria has today.

“The PIA has provided fiscal clarity, regulatory efficiency, contract certainty, and transparency across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments.

“The only way Africa, sitting on huge resources, can bridge that gap successfully is if we have the right regulatory systems to support the business terrain. And Nigeria is not alone in that march,” the NUPRC boss said.

In Nigeria, Eyesan said the results are already evident in investment trends compared to ten years before the PIA, when there was a steep decline in investment in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

According to her, “About 15 years before the PIA, we were comfortably spending $15 billion annually on the upstream business. This declined to less than $7 billion at some point. Today, we see an upswing.”

She told the global audience in the room that several multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) have been secured or are on the verge of being committed, including the Shell Bonga Project, the Ubeita Non-Associated Gas Project, the HI Gas Project, and the Zabazaba-Etan Field, which was expected to unlock $10.38 billion.

“These are huge projects and a signal that the tide has turned”, Eyesan stated.

In 2024 alone, she said the NUPRC approved 48 Field Development Plans (FDPs), describing that as a major index of progress in the oil and gas industry.

She said the industry has witnessed the enablements from the PIA and that opportunities were just waiting to be unlocked.

She reiterated that the ongoing licensing round, where 50 blocks are offered, and 300 companies are competing, would be concluded by the third quarter of 2026.

Eyesan also announced that another bid round would commence before the end of the 2025 bid round, saying that this was an indication that the opportunities were immense.

To support bidders, Eyesan said NUPRC was enhancing its National Data Repository with large-scale 2D and 3D seismic data acquisition through multi-client partnerships.

She expressed confidence that bidders who finally acquire the assets will work them and bring them to market in the shortest possible time.

To enable this, she explained that the data repository was also being upgraded for advanced analytics, as they seek to embrace artificial intelligence to quicken the process.

Underscoring the importance of capital investment in optimising Africa’s huge untapped oil and gas resources, Eyesan framed the continent’s energy challenge as one of infrastructure and capital rather than resources.

She recalled that Africa took the brunt during the start of the conversation on energy transition due to a lack of investment and infrastructure.

She urged investors to come and invest in the African oil and gas industry, assuring them of a quick return on their investments.

She added that Nigeria’s experience under the PIA demonstrates what was possible, saying: “The PIA has enabled a turnaround in the oil and gas industry. The opportunities are immense. The regulatory environment is there.”

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