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Tinubu, A Neo-liberalist Can’t Reduce Poverty

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By Audu Liberty Oseni

Those who think and believe that Mr. Bola Tinubu, the Nigerian president will improve his country’s economy by creating jobs and reducing poverty, will remain in the eternal wish, as that will not happen under him.

Mr. Tinubu makes no pretense about his alignment with the neo-liberal model of development. His policies support a naked neo-liberal capitalist system. And the economists and free market fundamentalists have continued to hail him as a man with the big balls to have followed that path.

But, here is the big issue the market fundamentalists and neo-liberal propagandists are not telling Tinubu. They have refused to tell him the bitter truth that Neoliberalism only favours and pushes for more markets and cares less about governance.

The trouble with the economists that propagate market fundamentalists using the neo-liberal model is that they imagine in their heads that economics is a science that does not need the application of common sense. They believe that an advanced capitalist system in the guise of a neoliberal model is a magic solution to building economic viability without consideration of peculiar circumstances of applicability.

Mr. Tinubu’s economic policies, which are capitalist driven, allow decisions to be made by private individuals who are comprador bourgeoisie and firms, cannot provide a platform that will build a viable economy capable of reducing poverty and inequality. NO. It will not.

This is solely because the basic laws of capitalism are profit-making maximization and exploitation.

Capitalism which the Tinubu government favours has no place for citizens’ welfare. It’s all about the market and profits.

China’s economic success has since proven the neoliberal model to be faulty thinking as a model for economic growth and development.

China followed an orthodoxy model that defied the neoliberal market fundamentalist prescription. Yes, China embraced markets but did not copy them from the standpoint of the neoliberal prescription.

Although China took from the market incentive which the neoliberal favours, she did so through radical reforms and unusual institutional tinkering within her local context. Rather than allow the state to private ownership the neoliberal favours, she relied on mixed reforms that allowed for citizens’ empowerment that triggered entrepreneurial development.

In the 1980s, China in the pursuit of viable economic reform, introduced Township and Village Enterprises (TVEs) which allow for collective ownership and control of enterprises by the local governments.

The TVEs were publicly owned, and the local governments had a direct stake in profit and control.

The Tinubu government must learn from China.

The country protected its large state sector from global competition. China put in place exceptional economic zones where foreign companies could function with different guidelines from in the rest of her economy.

Considering China’s action regarding the neoliberal prescription, it would be a deliberate distortion of intellectual fact to say China relied on the neoliberal model to build the viable economy she enjoys and now projects itself as a global economy giant.

Mr. Tinubu and his team must come to terms that China and other countries that have built viable competitive economies did that within their local context and not by embracing the neoliberal model.

The facts are there for us to see, countries whose leaders violate local context and initiative and embrace neoliberalism have their economy shattered with high rates of poverty and inequality.

What Mr. Tinubu and his team have since failed to understand and acknowledge is that economics is not abstract, but principally common-sense principles.

They think what they are doing is creating an atmosphere for economic growth. But, they fail to understand that progress in economics is based on the application of economic logic within the local context that serves the targeted beneficiaries, largely the majority of the citizens.

The neoliberal propagandists who are making those in political power think market and forget governance, often think they have a common solution to all economic challenges.

They failed to understand that we have different approaches depending on the nature of the problem at hand. For instance, those traveling on motorbikes, need a map for bike trails, those on foot need a map for footpaths and those on airplanes need a flight compass.

Therefore, prescribing a neoliberal model for an economy like Nigeria with a huge number of poor citizens and a lack of basic amenities is a mere abstract that has no economic sense.

Mr. Tinubu and his team may be good at making policies and choosing economic models, but unfortunately, they are not good at choosing one that is most appropriate for the problem at hand. Their neoliberal laissez-faire approach is not relevant to the current Nigerian economic reality and challenge.

Economics is not the science of thinking in terms of models as opined by John Maynard. It is the application of common sense and principles within the context of the problem that needs to be solved in a particular society.

The economic debates of Mr. Tinubu and his team, their enthusiasm for free markets, and their less concern about governance is a simple defilement of development logic that will not improve the economy but rather breed poverty and frustration among the citizens.

What the pro-market fundamentalists will not tell Mr. Tinubu is that countries that have built viable economies by creating sustainable jobs, did that by violating the neoliberal structures. Pointer examples are South Korea and Taiwan. Both countries had committed their huge resources to subsidizing exports. A system neoliberal disallows.

If Mr. Tinubu and his team think the neoliberal model that favours markets and discourages governance is the way to go, they should please study Chile’s example.

Chile’s neoliberal experiment produced the worst economic crisis in all of Latin America.

Clearly, Mr. Tinubu is not wrong in his belief that Nigeria will be better when its economy is vibrant, strong, and growing. He is only wrong in his believe that the neoliberal model is a unique solution that must be applied across all countries.

The fatal flaw of neoliberalism is that it does not even get the economics right. Nigerians must reject the neoliberal model for the simple reason that it is bad economics that will not allow for poverty reduction and better citizens’ welfare.

Oseni, MAWA Foundation Coordinator, sent this from libertydgreat@gmail.com

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Opinion/Feature

GTI: Burden Bearer For NPFL Development

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By Andrew Ekejiuba

In one of the famous quotes of Greek mathematician and inventor, Archimedes, regarding the Law of the Lever, he said, “Give me but one firm spot on which to stand and I will move the earth.”

According to history, every generation of humanity has always struggled to invent or re-invent something beneficial to society thereby leaving a legacy behind for posterity to remember them. Be it in business, technology, sports and education to mention but a few, the story remains the same. It was this same vision to accomplish something for Nigerians that also got GTI Asset Management and Trust Limited (GTI) to commence a tedious journey to restructure and reposition our Nigeria Premier Football League.

As noted earlier in this serial, GTI needed to salvage an almost hopeless situation in the history of Nigerian football thereby creating that spot in history according to Archimedes in which the investment banking firm stood to move our beautiful game to the next level.

To kick-start the process, an epoch-making event was held on March 22, 2022, when GTI officially announced its magnificent entry into Nigeria’s football ecosystem following its successful launch of The Nigeria Football Fund (TNFF).

However, immediately after the launch, the entire financial and sports management experts of GTI Group never looked back in ensuring that the huge dream they have for our elite football comes to fruition. From their findings, it was clear to GTI that there were fundamental issues lacking in Nigeria’s elite league prior to their engagement as strategic partners to the NPFL. Notable among them were the issues of sustainable liquidity and reliable transparent structure that can stand the test of time. Other discoveries were poor playing infrastructure; lack of visibility of the League matches and low officiating integrity.

TNFF was aimed at building a “Football Economy” for the transformation of the sports sector. Aside from the aforementioned, the Fund promotes an investment culture among sports enthusiasts and investing public with an opportunity for them to earn returns from their investment. The multiplier impact will drive a cycle of growth (value-chain effects) across several other sectors like Tourism, Broadcasting, Technology, Gaming, Media, Hospitality, Transportation and Merchandising to mention but a few.  The end result of these surely will lead to increased economic activities, increase in employment opportunities, rise in disposable income and significant contribution to GDP.

With less than two years of the existence of TNFF, a common question, “Wouldn’t you rather invest in TNFF” has kept reverberating in the minds of interested investors.

Today, the NPFL is currently enjoying relative peace because of the way and manner financial issues are transparently handled in the administration of the league.

On the issue of visibility of the elite league, GTI as burden bearer secured the services of Propel Sports Africa at the end of the 2022/2023 season to ensure our matches are viewed on mobile devices locally and globally on the OTT platform. This singular action attracted more sponsors to the NPFL as they saw the elite league as a veritable product that has the capacity to add value to their products and services. Then, a few weeks into the 2023/2024 season, telecommunication giants MTN and StarTimes followed suit to enhance the broadcast of league matches.

In terms of officiating the NPFL matches, one can comfortably say that there is a remarkable improvement in this regard.

In summary, the management of the NPFL has improved tremendously, thanks to the effort of GTI as strategic partners. Therefore, the journey of taking the league to greater heights is being pursued vigorously as football stakeholders and analysts in the country anticipate that in the next few years, NPFL will become the best-organized league in Africa and also rank among the most glamorous leagues in the world.

The effect of the partnership and support of the Honourable Gbenga Elegbeleye-led NPFL Board has shown a positive trajectory in the latest ranking of NPFL by the International Federation of Football History & Statistics (IFFHS) for 2023. The position of NPFL has improved from 77th  to 73rd in the world ranking and has also moved from 10th  to 7th in the African ranking. It is expected that the ranking will continue to improve yearly in view of the various efforts made to transform the league.

The time is now for corporate Nigeria to secure sponsorship deals with the NPFL and for the public to invest in TNFF and earn alpha returns on their investment. This is an opportunity to participate in the shared dream to transform our football ecosystem for mutual benefits.

 

Ekejiuba, wrote from Lagos Island

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Opinion/Feature

In Eight Months Of Tinubu’s Administration, Nigeria’s Stock Market Leads Globally

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By Bayo Onanuga
The Nigerian economy is looking good in some sectors.

This is not a harebrained assessment, despite the high inflation and the unstable exchange rate of the Naira. Those who doubt this don’t need to look far, for a reality check.

The economic boom is happening at the Nigerian Exchange, where stockholders are not only recording unprecedented capital gains, but are poised to earn equally unprecedented dividends on their investments. The prosperity promised by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu during the campaign is becoming a reality, for millions of Nigerian investors, among whom will be the 6.6 million Nigerian shareholders of MTN, the biggest telco in the country.

The upswing in the market began 30 May 2023, the second day Tinubu was sworn into office. What triggered the big rally in the market was the announcement by the new President of the end of the fraudulent petrol subsidy regime. The market took notice of this bold measure, along with the President’s promise to harmonise the exchange rate. Although the latter remains ‘work-in-progress’, it has been a bullish run in the market since then.

The All Share Index which tracks the general market movement of all listed equities on the Nigerian exchange was 55,738.35 on 30 May 2023, a day after Tinubu was sworn in. In July it rose to 65,091. By 24 December, it reached 73,768, which as Bloomberg reported on 1 November, when the ASI first crossed the 70,000 mark, was the highest on record.

As at the close of trading on Friday 19 January, the index leapfrogged to 94,538.12, more than 69 percent growth, since last May, creating yet another huge record.

Market capitalisation also grew exponentially from N30.3 trillion recorded at end of May 2023 to N51.7 trillion on 19 January 2024. This means investors have gained more than N20 trillion since Tinubu came into office.

The record gains have made the Nigerian Stock Market the best in the world, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East and Africa Index.

Not surprising, investors are bringing more and more money to the market. Last Friday alone, 844.4 million units of stocks valued at N15 billion were traded in 15,255 deals.

The phenomenal growth of the market was fuelled by the record profits announced by many Nigerian banks and some of the manufacturers, such as Dangote Cement, Bua Cement, Lafarge Africa, formerly known as WAPCO.

The banks were the first to rally the market into a frenzy, beginning from their second quarter reports, when they reported huge gains from their forex dealings. Zenith announced earnings per share in H1 at N9.29 from N3.55 in the same period of 2022. UBA’s earnings per share stood at N10.95 in H1 2023 from N1.98 per share in the same period of 2022.

The positive Q3 reports also threw the market into more frenzy as banks announced further increases in profits. Investors, in response lapped up the shares of the banks, sending the prices higher.

UBA Plc which at the beginning of 2023 was trading at about N8 has seen the biggest jump in its stock price. By last Friday, it traded for N32. Access Bank which started the year at about N11-N12, has soared to N29. Zenith and GTCO are now trading in the N40s, from about N24-25 in January 2023. First Bank , FCMB, Fidelity, Sterling, Wema, Stanbic have all experienced the upswing in prices.

Dangote Cement, Bua Cement and Bua Foods, Flour Mills of Nigeria, Okomu Oil, Presco, Transcorp, NAHCO and WAPCO have similarly experienced some boom. Dangote on Friday, sold for N538, adding N48.9 to its weight, from its previous close of N489.9. WAPCO, otherwise known as Lafarge Africa traded at N31 in December. On 19 January, it traded for N47.

The rise in stock prices is being propelled by investors who are taking positions, according to EDC Securities Research, ‘in fundamentally driven stocks as we approach the earnings season”. The expectations and sentiments out there among the investors are that some dividend windfall is on the way.

The prosperity promised by the Tinubu administration may not be felt by all our 200 million people simultaneously. But it will not be far away as the government confronts the low inflow of forex into the economy, the fundamental reason exchange rate has gone bonkers and prices of imported and locally produced goods have increased.

President Tinubu and his cabinet expressed concern about the rising costs of pharmaceutical products at the last Federal Executive Council meeting. His government is poised to implement a series of measures to assist local drug manufacturers so that they lower the costs.

To address the low forex inflow, Nigeria is discussing as much as $1.5 billion of World Bank funding support for the budget, Finance Minister Wale Edun said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The country is also looking forward to the fulfilment of the pledge by Saudi Arabia to invest billions of dollars in our economy.

The NNPC Limited in the coming weeks will continue to be under pressure to bring in more dollars into the country’s foreign reserve to boost dollar availability and overturn bleak predictions for the national currency in 2024.

*Onanuga is the special adviser Information and Strategy to President Bola Tinubu.

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Opinion/Feature

For Aketi, I’m Pained

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A tribute by Yemi Adeoye

Leaders are known in times of distress and unease, and this is one gentleman who distinguished himself excellently at such times.

I recall vividly the days of herdsmen attack accros the forests and villages of the southwest, Gen. Buhari was in charge, and as usual, unbothered.

So while many leaders in the APC refrained from commenting publicly on the very disturbing development for fear of the Presidency due to the President’s “Body language” Aketi rose to the occasion and spoke his mind freely as if he weren’t a member of the ruling party, and he was invisible.

He was a key figure in the formation of Amotekun to protect the southwest from.the marauding herdsmen, and when some naysayers argued that the regional vigilante force is not backed by law, Aketi as he’s fondly called rallied his state lawmakers to swiftly give the force a legal backing.

His experience as a legal practitioner also helped shaped the laws at the time. He spoke his mind freely at all times like an activist and not as a governor.

I came to know of him mainly when he became the NBA president, and got to meet him when i visited Akure to have a session with him for the Energie Platform show, as the leader of an oil producing state. The state was hosting the then VP, Prof Osinbajo and my dear brother Dapo Olumurphy Aruwajoye had extended an invite to my team and I for the session with Aketi.

We ended up not being able to have that session with him, so I decided to study whatever i could of the man Aketi, largely because of his positive demeanor and very playful nature. He sang, danced, hailed people freely and dressed casually to a formal event. I liked that almost Oshiomole dress-feel, but Aketi gat swag, plus a good smile.
There was no way I was gonn miss those. I got close enough to say hello, and he responded so warmly my interest in him grew. The Vice President was warm too, and kindly apologized for his inability to sit with us. It was sad, but their kindness was encouraging. Honestly ehn, this one pain me like he’s my relative walai.

Aketi was full of life, and a very bubbly guy, and you can’t but just love the guy. He is a people person, and you can easily notice that about him. He is not a regimented or scripted kinda guy, and easily relates, not as a governor, but as the boy next door. I think it’s his nature.

Due to his outspoken and fearless nature, he was unanimously picked as the Chairman Southern Governors Forum at a time when that body was beyond necessary, and that seat reserved only for the bold!

During the Presidential campaign when Asiwaju Tinubu visited ondo state at a time when his campaign wasn’t firmly consolidated, and even the Vice President was in the race, Aketi fearlessly described Tinubu as “Our own Capo di Tuti”

So it wasn’t a surprise when President Tinubu in his condolence message to the people and state of Ondo, described the late Governor as “My Fearless Brother” because no other word describes the late Governor Akeredolu better.

His last days and the controversies that ensued while he was incapacitated was painful to watch. But that wasn’t the man I saw and listened to for years. I strongly believe the controversies wouldn’t have been, if Aketi was in charge and control of himself.

I pray the state heal, and the new Governor focuses on uniting the state.and building on Aketi’s legacy. He picked him to be his Deputy. No matter what, that alone is telling.

Finally, find rest your excellency.

Adeoye wrote from the USA.

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