Business
Ukraine likely to halt rise in U.S. stock
NEW YORK – U.S. stocks are likely to rise next week only if investor uneasiness subsides over the crisis in Ukraine and the recent signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.
Poor weather which may have played a role in recent weak economic data and dampening profit outlooks are one of the things investors will watch out for which will underscore views that setbacks may be temporary.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s comments this week, which raised the possibility of an earlier-than-expected increase in interest rates, added another element of interest to the data.
Reports on U.S. consumer confidence and sentiment are due next week, along with data on new home sales and orders for durable goods.
The market, however, remains vulnerable to any escalation in global tensions over Ukraine, especially since the Standard & Poor’s 500 .SPX reached another intraday record high on Friday before ending lower after a bout of profit-taking.
“The trend is favorable unless it’s upset by world events, and weakening of the data both here and abroad,” said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president of BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.
“I would say right now, if you look at the scorecard of economic and global events, it looks a little better than it did a month ago.”
Stocks bounced back this week after losing more than 2 percent the previous week as the problems in Ukraine and worries about a slowdown in China curbed investors’ appetite for riskier assets.
The S&P 500 ended the week up 1.4 percent, its best weekly gain since February. For the year, the benchmark index is up about 1 percent.
President Vladimir Putin signed laws completing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, though Moscow said no other Ukrainian region would be subject to intervention.
The Fed was in focus this week, when the central bank made it clear it would rely on a wide range of measures in deciding when to raise interest rates, dropping the U.S. unemployment rate as its yardstick for gauging the economy’s strength.
“You just have so much indecision. Do you feel good about what Janet said? Do you feel bad? Do you feel good about the Ukraine? Do you feel bad?” said Drew Wilson, an analyst at Fenimore Asset Management in Cobleskill, New York.
“It just feels like you have a hard time getting momentum either way.”
WALLETS AND WARNINGS
Investors will get some information next week on whether consumers kept a tight grip on their wallets last month. The Commerce Department will release February data on U.S. personal income and consumption on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters have forecast slim gains from the previous month.
A final reading on fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product will be released on Thursday.
“Hopefully some of the data is beginning to clear itself from some of the weather impacts, and we may get some better readings on how things are going,” said Cam Albright, director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors.
Negative profit outlooks for the first quarter have been increasing as well, with more companies sounding the alarm about possible problems related to this winter’s harsh weather.
Among them was General Mills (GIS.N), which missed sales and profit expectations this week and has warned on the current quarter. Its CEO said “severe winter weather dampened sales performance across the food industry.”<ID:ASB08H38>
Thomson Reuters data showed that 108 negative outlooks have been issued so far by S&P 500 companies, while only 16 gave positive ones.
But the ratio of negative outlooks to positive ones remains below that of the fourth quarter, which was the worst since at least the first quarter of 1996, according to Thomson Reuters data.
BANKING ON DIVIDENDS
Among stocks likely to post further gains next week are financials, which climbed this week following Yellen’s comments. She indicated that the first increase in interest rates could come in the first half of next year.
Most analysts in a Reuters poll after Yellen’s comments, however, still did not expect the Fed to begin raising rates until the second half of 2015.
Another supportive element for banks came from the Fed after Thursday’s close, when the central bank said 29 out of 30 major banks met the minimum capital hurdle in its annual health check.
The S&P financial index .SPSY gained 4.3 percent for the week, its best weekly percentage increase since January of 2013.
In the coming week, the Fed will announce on Wednesday which banks’ plans to pay dividends or buy back shares were approved.
“Regulators will sign off on the dividend increases, and if they get approved, that will help the momentum in the financial stocks,” Hellwig said.
The Office of the Auditor-General of the Federation has uncovered financial irregularities amounting to ₦514 billion in the 2021 operations of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd).
The revelations were contained in a comprehensive audit report highlighting non-compliance and internal control weaknesses within Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) during the 2021 financial year.
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Breakdown of Infractions
The audit detailed four major financial discrepancies within NNPCL:
“Irregular Deductions: A total of ₦343.64 billion was deducted from domestic crude oil sales at source without proper documentation.
“Sinking Fund Deposits: ₦83.66 billion, categorized as miscellaneous income, was retained in a sinking fund account.
“Unauthorised Refinery Deductions: ₦82.95 billion was deducted from federation revenue purportedly for refinery rehabilitation.
“Unsubstantiated Payments: ₦3.75 billion was flagged for transactions related to petrol sales that lacked proper verification.
The Auditor-General’s report stated that these financial activities violated the 1999 Constitution and the Financial Regulations Act of 2009, underscoring significant lapses in compliance with statutory guidelines.
According to the report, NNPCL generated ₦484.73 billion from domestic crude oil sales in March and May 2021.
However, ₦343.64 billion was deducted for various purposes, including “Value Shortfall,” “Strategic Stock Holding Cost,” and “Pipeline Maintenance.”
The deductions were made unilaterally by NNPCL without adequate documentation or justification.
Additionally, the report flagged ₦50 billion of the net payable amount for May 2021 as unaccounted for, creating a significant gap in the federation’s revenue.
“Audit observed from the review of NNPC SAP payment record for March and May 2021 payments that the sum of ₦484.73bn was the gross amount generated for the sale of domestic crude for the months of March and May 2021.
“The sum of ₦343.64bn from the gross amount was unilaterally deducted from the gross domestic crude sales as NNPC Value shortfall, Strategic Stock Holding Cost, Crude Oil and Products Pipeline Losses, as well as the pipelines maintenance and management costs.
“The details of each of the cost components deducted were not provided for audit review. Hence, the reasons for the deductions could not be justified by the management.”
On the unremitted ₦50 billion from May 2021, the report noted: “In the month of May, the net payable that could have been remitted ought to have been ₦127.075bn, but only the sum of ₦77.075bn was remitted, leaving an unremitted balance of N50bn to the Federation Account, which has remained unaccounted for.”
The report attributed these anomalies to weaknesses in NNPCL’s internal control systems, warning of the risks they pose to public funds.
It read, “The above anomalies could be attributed to weaknesses in the internal control system at NNPC, now NNPC Ltd. This is a potential loss of Federation revenue, diversion of public funds, or misapplication or misappropriation of funds.”
The success of the maiden edition of the Lagos Shopping Festival (LSF), Africa’s first 72-hour non-stop commerce and entertainment event has been credited to the Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
This is the view of Managing Director/Chief Strategist of Chain Reactions Africa Ltd, Israel Jaiye Opayemi, one of the main organisers of the event.
According to Opayemi, though Chain Reactions Africa conceptualised the event, the festival could be rightly described as the Governor’s baby and owes its success to his leadership. “Firstly, the Lagos Shopping Festival could not have come to fruition if the Governor did not buy into our audacious plan when we first presented the idea to him during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Secondly, it was the Governor’s exemplary leadership of the project as its Chief Marketing Officer which attracted the buy-in of key sponsors like Zenith Bank, Tolaram Group, First Bank Plc, and Guinness Nigeria Plc,” Opayemi revealed.
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While the duo of Zenith Bank and First Bank provided their bank on wheel platforms for buyers at the Lagos Shopping Festival, they also supported the Vendors with special Point of Sale Machines with which to process payments from buyers. The banks were also seen marketing their diverse banking products to guests within the shopping arena.
For Tolaram, it was a time to support the citizens and give back to society. Guests at the Lagos Shopping Festival were freely given some of the products of the group such as PowerOil, Indomie and Kellogg’s packaged into goodie bags and given out to prospective buyers at the shopping arena. The Children’s Arena was however activated by Indomie with the children entertained by Santa Claus within a well-equipped arena manned by the Indomie Brands team and the Lagos State Safety Marshalls. The children were daily treated to free Indomie meals daily and given various gifts to go home with.
On its part, Guinness Nigeria came through as the real life of the Nigerian party by organizing product sampling activation for the teeming guests at the festival using brands such as Singleton, Johnnie Walker, Ciroc, Don Royale and Captain Morgan to deliver pleasant experiences to guests aside from Guinness and Malta Guinness.
While unveiling the identity of the festival last month, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu had thanked the management of Zenith Bank Plc, Tolaram Africa Group, Guinness Nigeria Plc and First Bank of Nigeria for supporting the idea of a Lagos Shopping Festival, describing it as a value addition on the state’s tourism calendar and the overall efforts to grow the State’s GDP. The Governor further said, “I must specially acknowledge your pioneering sponsorship role. It is easy for a corporate sponsor to jump on the sponsorship band wagon of an already established festival and fund it. But you are supporting the maiden edition of this Lagos Shopping Festival with us. The competition is watching you now. Do not build this brand with us and yield the space for the competition to take over. I do hope you would all commit long term to this brilliant initiative.”
On his part, Girish Sharma, CEO Guinness Nigeria Plc, expressed enthusiasm for the initiative. “Lagos is the commercial heartbeat of Nigeria and Africa’s entertainment capital, and the Lagos Shopping Festival captures its essence. We see opportunities in this initiative because it is a creative fusion of commerce and entertainment. This partnership reflects our dedication to fostering economic opportunities and support the nation’s vibrant entertainment industry.”
A first-of-its-kind, the festival was a convergence of commerce and entertainment, bringing together buyers and sellers in the MSME ecosystem, and hordes of fun-seekers who were entertained with thrilling performances by A-list entertainers, including Adekunle Gold, Wande Coal, Teni, Young Jonn, BNXN, Ayo Maff, SB Live and EmmaOMG. The list also included some of Nigeria’s most sought after DJs such as DJ Neptune, DJ YK Mule, DJ Baddo while Gbenga Adeyinka the 1st and Larry J dished out rib-cracking comedy performances.
Held from 23rd to 25th Day of December 2024, at the iconic Mobolaji Johnson Arena, Onikan Stadium, Lagos, the Lagos Shopping Festival saw thousands of fans throng the main venue and select Lagos malls during the three-day period to bag the latest bargains from local and top global brands.
The Nigerian Naira experienced mixed movements in the foreign exchange markets on Monday, as it depreciated to N1,665 per dollar in the parallel market, down from N1,660 per dollar recorded over the weekend.
In contrast, the official exchange rate saw the Naira appreciate to N1,534.56 per dollar, improving slightly from N1,535 per dollar last Friday, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
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This reflects a marginal gain of 44 kobo in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).
As a result, the gap between the parallel market rate and the NFEM rate widened to N130.44 per dollar, compared to the N125 per dollar margin recorded over the weekend.
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