The drums of war that started beating since the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) signaled intention of deploying military force to restore democracy in Niger Republic has assumed another dimension with the arrival in Mali of armed soldiers from Russian mercenary group, Wagner.

Mali, herself, under military regime had declared loyalty to the coupists in Niger Republic, together with their Burkina Faso counterparts.

The berthing of the fully armed mercenaries with a cache of ammunition, just days after Leader, Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was seen in full army regalia, in a video believed to have been made somewhere in Africa, is sending jitters down the spines of the civilian population in the West African sub-region.

International media sources averred that Prigozhin had posited that the presence of his men in Mali was to help the military government of that country clamp down on terrorists and “any other interest”.

The phrase ‘any other interest’ is now subject of various interpretations across the sub-region, given that the military rulers of Mali had declared interest in backing their counterparts in Niger Republic.

Both countries had openly dissociated themselves from the positions of both the ECOWAS and the African Union (AU) following the ousting of President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26, 2023.

However, the ECOWAS’ Envoy to Niger Republic, Nigeria’s Abdulsalami Abubakar, a retired general and former head of state has expressed the opinion that the situation wasn’t likely to deteriorate.

He bared his mind to media men at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, after a meeting with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is the Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the ECOWAS.

It was gathered that President, ECOWAS Commission, Dr Omar Touray, and the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, also attended the meeting.

Gen. Abdulsalami, explained that he took advantage of his meeting with Bazoum and the coupists over the weekend to share ECOWAS’ position, while he had also delivered the peace terms proposed by the junta to sub-regional body.

The lines of dialogue and diplomacy having been effectively opened and alive point to his appointment as envoy bearing good fruits, the retired general highlighted.

Gen. Abudulsalami said, “The ECOWAS Heads of State and Government have made me an envoy to Niger Republic.

“We were there over the weekend to see the military people and discussed how to find a way out of the situation.

“That’s why I’m here, together with the President of the ECOWAS Commission, to report back to Mr. President on our discussions in Niger.

“I must say that our visit to Niger was very fruitful. It has opened an avenue to start talking and hopefully we’ll get somewhere.”

All these are happening while Mali and Burkina Faso, both members of ECOWAS, having pledged to support the military rulers in Niger Republic, already sent troops to Niamey as a backup to the Niger military.

On its part, ECOWAS has rejected the three-year transition plan hinted by Nigerien coup leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani, insisting on the use of force should dialogue fail.

The coupists are also not showing any signs of shifting grounds, and with international backing tending to be swelling in their favaour, the civil population in West Africa have cause to worry.

One of the voices of concern is former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai, who called for caution, noting that firing of ammunition in Niger Republic would amount to a civil war within the WA sub-region.

According to E-Rufai, who made his positon on his verified X handle, @elrufai, sent clear caution signals to ECOWAS leaders against application of military force in the bid to restore constitutional governance in Niger Republic.

He cited the bloodlines flowing across the various divides of the geographical entities that constitute the WA sub-region and expressed his detesting any form of ‘brothers-in-arms’, which would have dire and unforeseen consequences.

He maintained that people of the Niger Republic were “one and the same with those living in Northern Nigeria,” indeed.

El-Rufai tweeted, “As ECOWAS beats the drums of war, I recall the 1970s rock classic by Dire Straits – ‘Brothers in Arms’, because a war within our sub-region is a war between brothers.

“Indeed, the people of Niger Republic are one and the same with those living in Northern Nigeria.

“Let us bend therefore over backwards to avoid this civil war between brothers.”

What makes this new dimension extreme is insinuations at the global stage that the coupists had the support Russia from the get-go.

They had also called for help from the Wagner Group, which Prigozhin assured he would offer.

According to a former Russian official, Wagner and the Russian state conspired to facilitate the military coup in the landlocked WA country.

“The recent coup in Niger was carried out in close cooperation with Russian special services and Private Military Company (PMC) consultants,” claimed Russian military blogger Mikhail Zvinchuk, a former press officer for Russia’s defence ministry, who uses the alias “Rybar”.

However, in the midst of the dramatics on the international stage, the civil population in Niger Republic were said to be rallying round their coupists, as video footages seen online suggest.

The Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, had also counselled President Tinubu and ECOWAS to explore diplomatic options for the resolution of the constitutional crisis in Niger Republic.

Similarly, the Northern Senators Forum (NSF) had also urged President Tinubu to exhaust all diplomatic options first.

Like El-Rufai, the NSF are concerned that deploying troops to Niger would not just dangerously expose, but hurt seven northern states, including, Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno, all of whom who share borders Nigeria’s northern neighbours.