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We’ll inherit worst economy in Nigeria’s history – Osinbajo, Nigeria’s VP-elect

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ABUJA-The Vice President-elect, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, has said the incoming Muhammadu Buhari-led government will inherit the worst economy ever in the history of the nation.

Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, Nigeria's VP-Elect

Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, Nigeria’s VP-Elect

Also, a former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, has advised Buhari to take advantage of the country’s current level of public support for him to take hard decisions.

Osinbajo and Blair spoke during the opening of a two-day Policy Dialogue on the Implementation of the Agenda for Change, which began in Abuja on Wednesday.

Osinbajo put the nation’s local and international debt profile at US$60bn with a 2015 debt-serving bill of N953.6bn, representing 21 per cent of this year’s budget.

He noted that an estimated 110 million out of the nation’s over 170 million population, were living in extreme poverty while the largest chunk of the benefits of the nation’s wealth was going into the pockets of a small percentage of the population.

According to him, the nation’s dwindling oil revenues has made it difficult for 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states to pay salaries.

He said, “We are concerned that our economy is currently in perhaps its worst moment in history. Local and international debts stand at US$ 60bn.

“Our debt servicing bill for 2015 is N953.6bn, 21 per cent of our budget. On account of severely dwindled resources, over two-thirds of the states in Nigeria owe salaries.

“Federal institutions are not in much better shape. Today, the nation borrows to fund recurrent expenditure.”

Osinbajo said the manifesto of the All Progressives Congress “offers a vision of shared prosperity and socio-economic inclusion for all Nigerians that leaves no one behind in the pursuit of a prosperous and fulfilling life.”

According to him, the goal of the policy dialogue is to interrogate the positions and propositions before a wider audience and to launch a robust public conversation on policy directions and priorities that would help inform the incoming administration’s approach in the next four years.

He added that the “forum exemplifies the sort of consultative and consensual approach to policy-making that the APC and the new administration intend to model in office.”

The Vice President-elect also declared that the dialogue intended to explore a wide range of policy priorities including the diversification of the economy in the wake of dwindling oil revenues.

To achieve this, he said, the administration would engender job-led growth through the revitalisation of the agricultural sector in pursuit of job creation and food security, improving the regulatory frameworks in the most strategic sphere of economic activity.

Blair, who was represented by a former Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, Mr. Peter Mandelson, explained that with the current state of affairs, the task ahead of the incoming administration was indeed a daunting one.

Drawing from the experiences of the Labour Party in Britain, Blair said the first rule of governance “is be true to your word; be true to your mandate.”

He urged the Buhari-led administration not to be afraid to take hard decisions but said it must remain mindful of the timing of such decisions.

Blair also advised the administration not to attempt to do everything at once but to ensure that things were done with proper planning along with a commitment to deliver.

He said, “You will have more goodwill and moral authority to do the difficult things at the beginning of your term than at the end. President (Joko) Widodo of Indonesia was elected in July last year, with huge public support.

“One of the first things he did when he was inaugurated in October was to smash Indonesia’s hugely expensive and inefficient, yet popular fuel subsidy.

“A policy decision which had toppled a previous administration and consistently brought people out on the streets, he decided to do it straight away when he had the authority that was the time.”

This, Blair explained, cushioned the effect of the recent fall in oil prices in the world market on the Indonesian economy.

He also stressed the importance of communication which, he said, was vital in democracy because “it is both the means of convincing people and getting them to keep following you once you are elected.”

“Strategy without communication is like a car without headlights,” he added.

The British politician also stressed the need for the government to focus on priorities and ensure service delivery.

Blair also advised the administration to create a mechanism that would focus on its priorities even in the midst of other challenges.

Earlier in his welcome address, the Director, Policy Research and Strategy Directorate of the APC, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, had said, “The phase of policy conception is over and we are entering the phase of execution, governance and of providing tangible developmental deliverables.

“The challenge of translating ideas into policy and praxis now looms large.

“Given the degree of work that has been put in by the directorate and our well-documented national problems of policy implementation, the focus should now be on evolving an institutional framework to deliver the agenda for change.”

Business

VP Shettima insists tax reforms will improve lives and not impoverish Nigerians

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Modupe ASUDO
Vice President Kashim Shettima, on Wednesday in Abuja, said the implementation of new tax reforms will eliminate the burden of multiple levies and charges on small businesses and low-income earners in Nigeria, thereby helping to reduce poverty.
Shettima noted that the planning and implementation of the tax reforms were carefully designed to improve livelihoods, contrary to the claims of political detractors.
The Vice President spoke on behalf of President Bola Tinubu at the interfaith breaking of fast for Ramadan and Lent held at the State House. Attendees included members of the Federal Executive Council, the Central Bank governor, special advisers, senior special assistants and heads of agencies and parastatals.

Nigerisa’s Vice President Kashim Shettima

Shettima urged them all to remain champions of the government’s reforms.
He said the government is genuinely concerned about Nigerians’ plight and is releasing policy instruments to lift many out of poverty without adding to their burdens.
“The same people who are shouting hoarse that the tax reform is meant to pulverise further and pauperise the poor are far from the truth, but we have to go out and tell the truth to the people.
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“We have to educate them. We have to mount the pulpits and take our government to the Nigerian people and tell them the truth,” he said.
Shettima highlighted some of the gains of the economic reforms, including an increase in the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, streamlining of the exchange rates and the removal of a subsidy that had favoured only a few for many years.
He said President Tinubu should be commended for the courage to address the issues that past administrations avoided.
The Vice President explained that the removal of the fuel subsidy was not mentioned in the President’s 2023 inaugural speech. Still, the President had to announce it, knowing that the system was draining the economy of resources for development.
“Three years down the road, the economy has bounced back,’’ he added.
“On behalf of the President, I want to thank you all for comradeship, support and partnership,’’ he stated.
Shettima advised government officials to be more active in sharing facts about the administration’s achievements and to be ready to counter falsehoods propagated by the opposition parties.
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Business

AfCFTA $3.4 Trillion Market in Focus as NCDMB, Others move to deepen Intra-Africa Trade

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By Modupe Asudo

The 2026 edition of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) Summit got underway in Lagos on Monday with regulatory agencies, project promoters, and financial institutions focused on deepening intra-Africa trade, a unified code of standards for professional qualifications and manufactured goods, and expansion of the frontiers of technological development and innovation.

Critical questions addressed include how AfCFTA’s 1.4 billion population and $3.4 trillion economy could achieve “a strategic shift from fragmented economies towards a globally competitive supply chain system”; how Africa could leverage its vast mineral resources, including copper, iron ore, petrochemical, for domestic production of hardware such as Christmas tree (an assembly of valves, fittings on top of a wellhead to control oil production), and how, hypothetically, Tema Shipyard in Ghana could be designated the vessel construction, assembly and repairs hub for Africa.

Related questions were how cables manufactured in Nigeria, hypothetically, could benefit from favourable trade terms in Angola; what compliance requirements a sacrificial anode producer in Nigeria would have to meet in regard to the rule of origin requirement to export anodes to Algeria for protection and longevity of pipelines, storage tanks, offshore platforms, etc., and what other support levers would be required to achieve energy security for Africa besides expanded refining capabilities in Dangote Refinery, laying of continental gas transmission pipelines, and establishment of industrial parks and other support infrastructure.

In a keynote address at the event, the Executive Secretary of the NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, represented by the Director, Corporate Services, Dr. Abdulmalik Halilu, disclosed that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry embraced AfCFTA and developed a framework for domesticating the policy in 2022.

According to him, implementing AfCFTA in the industry was anchored on three broad pillars, namely, Opportunities Identification, Capacity Development, and Capacity Exportation. In regard to opportunities, he said Nigeria’s strength lies in formidable supply chain in oil field services, refining capacity, oil field logistics base, gas supply pipelines, and a pool of qualified oil field technical workforce.

On capacity development, he pointed out that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, through the local content law, has developed capabilities in the oil and gas value chain spanning marine vessel asset ownership, fabrication, assembly and installation of production systems, including Christmas trees, pressure vessels, and pumps.

What remains unresolved, described by the Executive Secretary as “the next frontier and the reason for convening the Summit,” is capacity exportation. He posited for consideration a unified work permit and visa that would enable, say, “a welder in Senegal to be engaged in Arlec Engineering Works, Johannesburg, South Africa, for fabrication of heat exchangers, storage tanks, pressure tanks, pressure vessels, etc.”

In examining the importance of achieving continental economic integration, Engr. Ogbe explained that strong regional supply chains would shift Africa from exporting raw materials to producing high-value goods.  For pathways to integration, he listed regional value chains, infrastructure connectivity, regulatory harmonization, industrial clusters, and small and medium scale enterprises (SME) inclusion.

He assured industry stakeholders and participants maximum support by the NCDMB.

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Business

AfCTA: NCDMB provides roadmap to $3.4tn continental market

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By Modupe Asudo

The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board has outlined a practical framework for positioning Nigeria’s energy sector to access the African Continental Free Trade Area, following a strategic webinar focused on meeting rules-of-origin requirements for continental trade.

The Board held a pre-conference webinar on Wednesday ahead of the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit scheduled for Monday, February 9, 2026.

The engagement was attended by stakeholders from the oil and gas, power and renewable energy sectors, and they addressed how Nigerian products and services can qualify for preferential market access across 54 African countries with a combined gross domestic product of $3.4tn and a population of about 1.4 billion people.

NCDMB Charges Indigenous Companies On Compliance As Nigerian Content Level Hits 54% In 2022Entitled ‘Meeting AfCFTA Origin Requirements in Energy Trade’, the webinar focussed on one of the major barriers facing Nigerian exporters under AfCFTA — structuring production and operations to meet origin requirements that determine eligibility for duty-free and preferential trade.

The initiative was supported by the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, and the Acting Director of Planning, Research and Statistics, Mr. Ene Ette, as part of preparations for the forthcoming Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, with the theme ‘Unlocking Africa’s Energy Future through AfCFTA: Trade, Innovation and Regional Integration’.

Speaking during the session, a communications analyst, Joseph Nwokedi, representing the Acting National Coordinator of Nigeria’s AfCFTA Coordination Office, Mrs Patience Okala, stressed the central role of energy in Africa’s economic integration under AfCFTA.

He urged Nigerian companies to shift their focus from Nigeria’s domestic market of about 200m people to the wider continental market of 1.4bn consumers.

“Without energy, there’s no industrialisation. Without energy, regional value chains remain aspirational,” Nwokedi said. “With AfCFTA, energy transforms from a domestic infrastructure issue into a tradable, investable and exportable sector within an integrated African market.”

He noted that even one per cent penetration of the African market translates to about 14m consumers, underscoring the scale of opportunity available to Nigerian energy firms.

The webinar identified four key pathways through which Nigeria’s energy sector can participate in AfCFTA-enabled trade. First, Nigeria’s Electricity Act of 2023 allows independent power producers to supply electricity directly to industrial clusters and export processing zones, positioning power generation as a foundation for trade-ready manufacturing.

Second, the country has submitted commitments under AfCFTA that enable professionals such as engineers, electricians, geophysicists and energy auditors to export services across Africa, subject to mutual recognition of qualifications.

Third, refined petroleum products, gas derivatives, electricity and renewable energy components can be traded across borders under preferential tariffs, provided they meet AfCFTA rules of origin.

Fourth, AfCFTA’s investment protocol, combined with recent domestic reforms, including the Presidential Directives on Investment Incentives for 2024–2025, strengthens Nigeria’s credibility for attracting cross-border investments in power generation, transmission, renewable energy and storage infrastructure.

Delivering a technical presentation, Assistant Comptroller of Customs, Burhan Sulaiman, explained that AfCFTA would eliminate tariffs on 90 per cent of goods traded within the bloc over five to 10 years, with an additional seven per cent liberalised over 13 years. However, he stressed that these benefits were conditional on meeting origin requirements.

“Companies lose benefits because origin was treated as an afterthought,” Sulaiman said. “You must build in origin compliance from the beginning, not while already running your project. Origin determines whether you export duty-free or pay full tariffs.”

He clarified that origin is determined by where economic production takes place, not by company ownership or registration. Foreign-owned companies producing in Nigeria can export as Nigerian origin, while Nigerian companies importing finished goods cannot claim AfCFTA preferences.

Sulaiman explained that products qualify for preferential access through two routes. “Wholly obtained” goods are entirely produced within AfCFTA member states, such as crude oil and natural gas extracted in Nigeria, as well as locally generated electricity regardless of fuel source.

The second route, “substantial transformation”, applies where foreign inputs are used and requires compliance with one of three tests: a change in tariff classification; a value-addition threshold limiting foreign content to between 30 and 60 per cent of ex-works price; or completion of specific prescribed processes such as distillation, cracking or reforming for petroleum products.

He provided sector-specific guidance, noting that in oil and gas, locally extracted crude and gas qualify, just as refined petroleum products that meet processing requirements. However, simple blending, basic distillation operations and modular refineries using imported crude without substantial transformation do not qualify.

In the power sector, he explained, locally generated electricity and regionally manufactured equipment with deep component transformation qualify, while installation-only activities, imported turbines, transformers and switchgear mounting do not.

“For renewables, regional solar cell and battery cell manufacturing with deep component processing qualify,” he said, adding that panel installation alone, simple module assembly and packaging imported batteries do not meet the thresholds.

Sulaiman warned that without regional manufacturing accumulation, power equipment exports fail origin tests.

According to him, the Nigeria Customs Service applies a five-step verification process for origin claims, including confirming accurate HS codes, reviewing production records, testing for minimal operations, verifying African input origins and ensuring consistency across certificates, production records and cost documentation.

“Weak documentation kills origin claims. Even genuinely originating products can be denied if documentation is incomplete or inaccurate,” he noted.

Both speakers emphasised that origin compliance should be treated as a core business strategy rather than a regulatory formality.

“Origin is not paperwork; it is strategy,” Sulaiman said. “It shapes where you locate facilities, how you source inputs, and where you sign regional contracts. Treat it as strategic from day one.”

Nwokedi urged Nigerian firms to act early. “AfCFTA is happening now. Early movers will shape supply chains, standards and partnerships. Are you going to lead, or simply follow?”

Officials also provided updates on AfCFTA implementation, noting that 92 per cent of rules of origin had been agreed, with negotiations ongoing in the textiles and automotive sectors.

An online dispute resolution mechanism has been established to coordinate Customs authorities, standards bodies and complainants.

Nigeria has deployed a fully operational electronic certification system for paperless trade, while Nigerian Customs is introducing risk-management frameworks that could allow exporter self-certification on commercial invoices.

Following a five-year implementation review led by the Minister of Industry and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, government sensitisation efforts have intensified through partnerships with the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture; Women’s Chambers of Commerce; zonal outreach programmes and ‘P3 engagements’ involving the press, private sector and public institutions.

“The government will not trade under AfCFTA — our exporters will,” officials said. “If they win, we win.”

Nigerian Customs also reiterated its open-door policy for pre-export origin verification to help businesses avoid delays and additional costs at the border.

The webinar highlighted Nigeria’s potential as a regional energy and transition-fuel hub, building on frameworks such as the West African Power Pool to support cross-border electricity trade.

Key recommendations included structuring projects for origin compliance from inception, forming regional joint ventures, aligning with continental standards and leveraging AfCFTA service commitments to export Nigerian energy expertise.

The session ended with confirmation that the webinar was a technical precursor to the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, which will convene policymakers, industry leaders and trade experts to develop strategies for maximising Africa’s energy potential under the AfCFTA framework.

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