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World Bank Raises Nigeria’s Growth Forecast to 3.8% as Inflation Eases

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World Bank


CBN’s Rate Cut, Stable Prices Strengthen Economic Outlook Across Africa

The World Bank has raised Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.8%, citing easing inflation, stabilising exchange rates, and supportive policy measures by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In its latest Africa Pulse report released on Monday, the global lender said sub-Saharan Africa’s overall growth will improve as inflation pressures ease and central banks begin relaxing monetary policies.

The development follows the CBN’s decision last month to cut its benchmark interest rate from 27.5% to 27%, a move aimed at stimulating borrowing and investment.

According to the World Bank, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Ivory Coast are among the countries expected to record stronger economic expansion this year, with real incomes projected to rise over the next two years.

“While this marks a gradual recovery from a decade of successive shocks, the rebound has yet to gain strong momentum,” the report stated.

The bank noted that regional growth is expected to average 4.4% annually over the next two years — a slight improvement from the previous forecast of 4.3% released in April.

Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, said the continent’s inflation levels have dropped significantly, giving policymakers room to lower interest rates.

“The median inflation is less than 4%. Moreover, most of the currencies that were cratering relative to the U.S. dollar have now recovered and are stable,” Dabalen said.

However, the report warned that high debt levels, trade uncertainty, and slow job creation could hinder long-term growth. Dabalen particularly cited the uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) — a key U.S.-Africa trade agreement — as a major concern.

“Trade challenges remain very high. We don’t know how this is going to be resolved because there are lots of negotiations going on,” he added.

The World Bank urged African governments to prioritise job creation through policies that support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and improve the business climate.

“These jobs have to be jobs that provide a living wage and secure lives,” Dabalen said, pointing out that about three-quarters of jobs in the region remain in the informal sector.

He warned that unemployment and social unrest remain significant threats to the region’s stability.

“The consequences of not solving these problems are hard to contemplate. They will be very disruptive, and I think we’re beginning to see the signs of it,” Dabalen said, referencing youth-led protests in Nigeria, Kenya, and Madagascar.

With inflation easing and currencies stabilising, analysts believe Nigeria’s latest growth outlook signals cautious optimism for Africa’s largest economy — though sustained reforms and private-sector investment remain key to long-term recovery.



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‘Nigerians Can’t Eat GDP’ — Atiku Tears Into Tinubu’s Economic Record

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Former Vice President and African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has criticised the Federal Government’s claims that Nigeria’s economy is on the path to recovery, arguing that worsening hardship and the decline of the country’s manufacturing sector paint a different picture.

Atiku made the remarks in a statement issued on Monday by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, accusing the Presidency of relying on “propaganda” and macroeconomic statistics that do not reflect the realities faced by ordinary Nigerians.

SEE ALSO: Win 2027 at the Ballot, Not in Court – Atiku to Politicians

According to the former vice president, the continued shutdown of manufacturing firms and the financial distress confronting many others are clear indications that the economy is deteriorating despite official claims of progress.

“A government cannot claim its economic policies are working when the country’s industrial sector is actively shutting down. Nations do not build prosperity by celebrating macroeconomic statistics while their factories close their gates,” the statement read.

Citing figures from the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Atiku said 767 manufacturing companies had shut down, while another 335 were operating under severe distress.

He also claimed that manufacturers were holding about ₦2.14 trillion worth of unsold finished goods, blaming the situation on the collapse in consumers’ purchasing power.

According to him, several multinational companies, including Procter & Gamble, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi and Kimberly-Clark, have either exited local manufacturing or shut down production in Nigeria, while some indigenous firms have also suspended operations.

Atiku further alleged that manufacturers spent approximately ₦1.1 trillion on diesel to power their factories due to unreliable electricity supply and rising energy costs.

“Factories do not shut down because the opposition writes press statements. Manufacturers do not accumulate trillions of naira in unsold goods because critics hold press conferences.

“They leave because the economic environment has become increasingly hostile to production, investment and enterprise,” he stated.

The ADC presidential candidate argued that while the Presidency continues to celebrate improvements in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), debt ratios and other macroeconomic indicators, millions of Nigerians are struggling with rising food prices, unemployment and declining purchasing power.

He questioned why poverty and food insecurity remain widespread if the government’s reforms are yielding the benefits being advertised.

“Governments are not elected to improve spreadsheets. They are elected to improve the lives of their people. Nigerians cannot eat GDP. They cannot cook with debt-to-GDP ratios. They cannot pay school fees with statistical projections,” Atiku said.

The former vice president also criticised the administration’s continued borrowing despite claims that government revenues had improved following the removal of petrol subsidy and reforms in tax administration.

He challenged the Federal Government to explain why borrowing remains at record levels if fiscal reforms have significantly strengthened public finances.

Atiku further accused the administration of failing to demonstrate how the gains from subsidy removal have translated into improved infrastructure, healthcare, education and social welfare, maintaining that Nigerians deserve to know where the promised dividends of the policy have gone after enduring record fuel prices, soaring transport costs and a sharp rise in the cost of living.

The statement came in response to the Presidency’s recent defence of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, in which it argued that policies such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalisation had stabilised the economy and laid the foundation for long-term growth.

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NEWS

JUST IN: Abducted Kebbi Judge Finally Regains Freedom, Returns Home Safely

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There was relief and celebration in Kebbi State on Monday as abducted High Court Judge, Hon. Justice Faruku Hassan Bunza, regained his freedom after spending one week in the custody of suspected bandits.

A family member confirmed the development, revealing that the judge had safely returned home a few hours before speaking to journalists.

SEE MORE: Bandits Kidnap Kebbi High Court Judge in Midnight Home Invasion

“We are in jubilation and full of gratitude to God for seeing our own return safely from captivity. He was just released and has returned home now after spending one week with the bandits,” the relative said.

The family also expressed appreciation to the Kebbi State Judiciary, security agencies, and residents of the state for their prayers, support, and solidarity throughout the period of the judge’s captivity.

“We sincerely thank and appreciate the Kebbi State Judiciary, the security agencies, and the entire people of Kebbi State who contributed in different ways, offered prayers, and sent messages of sympathy. Your concern and support gave us strength, and we are grateful for your solidarity,” the family member added.

Although the judge’s release has been confirmed, the circumstances surrounding how he regained his freedom remain unclear.

“Other details of how he was released will be made available later,” the source said.

As of the time of filing this report, neither the Kebbi State Judiciary nor security agencies had issued an official statement regarding the judge’s release.

Biz tellers recalls that Justice Bunza was abducted last week, triggering widespread concern across Kebbi State and prompting calls from residents and stakeholders for his immediate and unconditional release.

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No Budget, No Contract as FG Unveils Tough New Rules for Ministries

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The Federal Government has rolled out a sweeping new directive barring Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) from awarding contracts or entering into financial commitments without first securing budgetary approval and cash backing.

The new policy, aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline and tackling the persistent problem of abandoned projects, was contained in a Federal Treasury Circular dated July 31, 2026, and signed by the Accountant-General of the Federation, Dr. Shamseldeen Ogunjimi.

SEE ALSO: Fake Agency DG Adeniyi Reveals How ₦1.3bn Found Its Way Into 2026 Budget

Addressed to ministers, permanent secretaries, heads of extra-ministerial departments and agencies, accounting officers and federal pay officers, the circular said the fresh operational guidelines became necessary following widespread violations of the Public Procurement Act, 2007, and other financial regulations governing public expenditure.

“Further to the Treasury Circular… captioned ‘Revised Policy on Cash Management and Bottom-Up Cash Plan Operational Guidelines,’ it has become necessary to strengthen and deepen the implementation of the policy sequel to the observed non-compliance with the Public Procurement Act, 2007, and other extant laws and regulations,” the circular stated.

It added, “To ensure full compliance and seamless implementation of the policy, the following operational guidelines for the implementation of the 2026 capital budgets are hereby issued.”

Under the new guidelines, no MDA is permitted to issue letters of award, sign contracts or incur financial obligations unless a Warrant or Authority to Incur Expenditure (AIE) covering the full or committed contract sum has been released by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy to the Accountant-General of the Federation.

The circular stated, “No expenditure shall be incurred except on the authority of a Warrant/AIE (including employee payables).

Accordingly, no MDA shall issue letters of award, sign contracts, or enter into any financial obligations unless the corresponding Warrant/AIE covering the full or committed portion of the contract sum has been duly released by the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy to the Accountant-General of the Federation.”

To ensure compliance, the Office of the Accountant-General directed MDAs to attach copies of Warrants or AIEs generated through the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS) as proof that funds are available before contracts are awarded or payments processed.

The circular also warned that financial commitments, including purchase invoices and employee payables, must never exceed available warrant balances.

“All MDAs shall ensure that financial commitments (purchase invoices and employee payables) are limited to uncommitted warrant balances; and at no time should financial commitments exceed the amount of Warrants/AIEs available,” it stated.

In another directive, the Bureau of Public Procurement was instructed to process only applications for “No Objection” certificates that are supported by valid Warrants or AIEs.

The Accountant-General further reminded accounting officers that awarding contracts without adequate funding is a violation of the law.

“Accounting Officers are invited to note that it is an offence under the ICPC Act 2000 to award or sign any contract without budgetary provision, approval and cash backing,” the circular warned.

To improve budget implementation, the Federal Government directed all MDAs to submit annual and quarterly cash plans for their capital budgets to the Office of the Accountant-General. It also instructed agencies to prioritise projects in line with government policy objectives, while the Cash Management Technical Committee will continue reviewing implementation plans and advising on priority projects.

The latest directive reinforces the Federal Government’s revised cash management policy introduced in 2024 and is expected to reduce abandoned projects, curb the accumulation of unpaid contractual liabilities and ensure that capital projects are executed only when sufficient budgetary provisions and cash backing are in place.

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