Finance
Again,Naira in free fall, slides to 280 against dollar
ABUJA-THE naira continued its free fall on Thursday, crashing to 280 against the United States dollar at the parallel market. The greenback sold for N269 on Wednesday.
The naira, which had been trading around 241 and 243 against the greenback for a long time, began a steady decline about three weeks ago when the Central Bank of Nigeria stopped the sale of foreign exchange to over 1,600 Bureaux De Change operators due to improper documentation.
On Wednesday, however, the CBN cut the amount it sold to each of the 2,270 BDCs that participated in the weekly forex sale to $10,000, down from the $30,000 it sold to them last week.
According to analysts, the significant cut in forex supply to the BDCs coupled with the existing huge unmet demand at the CBN official window has led to the recent pressure on the naira at the parallel market.
Businesses have been struggling to access dollars as the CBN rations the greenback to preserve the country’s external reserves, which stood at $29.46bn as of December 15.
Analysts said the continued fall of the naira against the US currency at the black market could cause further inflation and affect businesses negatively with much backlash for the economy.
At the official interbank market, the currency has been pegged since February and closed at 196.97 on Wednesday.
Economic and financial experts have linked the continued fall of the naira at the parallel market to several reasons, ranging from the administrative controls imposed by the central bank to the speculative demand for the dollar by individuals and businesses.
They, however, said that unless the CBN took major steps to address the situation as soon as possible, the naira might be headed for 300 against the dollar.
A number of economists, who spoke to our correspondent on Thursday, said the devaluation of the naira was inevitable.
“Naira at 280 against the dollar at the parallel market is more speculative than being market-driven. The reason for this continued fall can be linked to a combination of factors. Well, the naira should find its equilibrium,” the Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, said.
Rewane had said that the devaluation of the naira was inevitable considering the margin between the value of the currency at the official market and the parallel market.
The Managing Director, Eczellon Capital, an investment bank and research firm, Mr. Diekola Onaolapo, said that considering the continued pressure on the local currency, “devaluation of the naira seems almost inevitable; we may need to devalue.”
He, however, said the current pressure on the currency might also be linked to the end-of-the-year rush, which bordered on foreigners having the need for dollars to travel out of the country for vacation.
Onaolapo is also of the opinion that the latest pressure on the naira may not have any major macroeconomic backlash on the economy.
The Head, Research and Investment Advisory, Afrinvest West Africa, Mr. Ayodeji Ebo, said the N80 spread between the value of the naira at the official and parallel markets would breed round-tripping and other sharp practices, calling on the CBN to take steps to address the situation by devaluing the naira.
He said, “The unrelenting slide in the value of the naira can be attributed to the hawkish administrative forex policies of the CBN to safe the naira. These policies are now a sting in the tail as businesses are struggling to survive.
“The CBN needs to be realistic in its strategies given that the main source (crude oil) of its forex has continued to wane. Unless a deliberate effort to devalue the naira by a minimum of 25.0 per cent to N248.6/US$1.00 (our forecast) within the next few weeks to reduce the arbitrage between the official market and parallel (unofficial) market, we would not be surprise to see the naira trade around N300.00/US$1.00. The existing spread (over N80.00/US$1.00) has incentivized round-tripping among major players in the forex market.”
Currency strategist at Ecobank Nigeria, Mr Kunle Ezun, linked the naira’s freefall at the parallel market to supply problem.
The Head of Portfolio Investment at Meristem, a research and investment advisory firm, Mr. Taiwo Yusuf, said, “The administrative controls are not working. We cannot wish away the demand. The administrative controls imposed by the CBN are making it difficult for us to have a stable naira.
“We are pushing ourselves towards being a productive economy but we are not yet there. We may need to take steps that will help to attract foreign portfolio investments into the country and keep them here for the main time. Otherwise, the current situation may bring imported inflation and hurt to businesses.”
However, the Director, Monetary Policy Department, CBN, Mr. Moses Tule, blamed the action of speculators on the pressure being suffered by the naira in the foreign exchange market.
Tule said in a statement that the naira was under pressure as a result of the actions of speculators, whom he noted had taken positions on the naira with a view to making excess gain from currency trading.
He said the currency speculators were determined to put severe pressure on the monetary authorities in order to ensure that the CBN further devalued the naira.
The CBN, according to him, has a responsibility to manage the economy and will do anything to protect it from those he described as “economic predators.”
While maintaining that the only rate in the currency market was N196.47 to a dollar, he wondered why indigenous operators in the Bureau de Change segment of the market chose to make huge profits at the expense of customers in genuine need of the currency.
Tule said, “We know what the fundamentals of this economy are and we will continue to take the right economic decisions on what to do and not when people sitting out there speculating on the currency think the naira should be devalued so that they could make profit out of it.
“No country quotes its exchange rate with reference to the BDCs rates. The currency has a reference rate and that is the interbank exchange rate.”
PUNCH-
Business
VP Shettima insists tax reforms will improve lives and not impoverish Nigerians
Business
AfCFTA $3.4 Trillion Market in Focus as NCDMB, Others move to deepen Intra-Africa Trade
By Modupe Asudo
The 2026 edition of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) Summit got underway in Lagos on Monday with regulatory agencies, project promoters, and financial institutions focused on deepening intra-Africa trade, a unified code of standards for professional qualifications and manufactured goods, and expansion of the frontiers of technological development and innovation.
Critical questions addressed include how AfCFTA’s 1.4 billion population and $3.4 trillion economy could achieve “a strategic shift from fragmented economies towards a globally competitive supply chain system”; how Africa could leverage its vast mineral resources, including copper, iron ore, petrochemical, for domestic production of hardware such as Christmas tree (an assembly of valves, fittings on top of a wellhead to control oil production), and how, hypothetically, Tema Shipyard in Ghana could be designated the vessel construction, assembly and repairs hub for Africa.
Related questions were how cables manufactured in Nigeria, hypothetically, could benefit from favourable trade terms in Angola; what compliance requirements a sacrificial anode producer in Nigeria would have to meet in regard to the rule of origin requirement to export anodes to Algeria for protection and longevity of pipelines, storage tanks, offshore platforms, etc., and what other support levers would be required to achieve energy security for Africa besides expanded refining capabilities in Dangote Refinery, laying of continental gas transmission pipelines, and establishment of industrial parks and other support infrastructure.
In a keynote address at the event, the Executive Secretary of the NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, represented by the Director, Corporate Services, Dr. Abdulmalik Halilu, disclosed that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry embraced AfCFTA and developed a framework for domesticating the policy in 2022.
According to him, implementing AfCFTA in the industry was anchored on three broad pillars, namely, Opportunities Identification, Capacity Development, and Capacity Exportation. In regard to opportunities, he said Nigeria’s strength lies in formidable supply chain in oil field services, refining capacity, oil field logistics base, gas supply pipelines, and a pool of qualified oil field technical workforce.
On capacity development, he pointed out that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, through the local content law, has developed capabilities in the oil and gas value chain spanning marine vessel asset ownership, fabrication, assembly and installation of production systems, including Christmas trees, pressure vessels, and pumps.
What remains unresolved, described by the Executive Secretary as “the next frontier and the reason for convening the Summit,” is capacity exportation. He posited for consideration a unified work permit and visa that would enable, say, “a welder in Senegal to be engaged in Arlec Engineering Works, Johannesburg, South Africa, for fabrication of heat exchangers, storage tanks, pressure tanks, pressure vessels, etc.”
In examining the importance of achieving continental economic integration, Engr. Ogbe explained that strong regional supply chains would shift Africa from exporting raw materials to producing high-value goods. For pathways to integration, he listed regional value chains, infrastructure connectivity, regulatory harmonization, industrial clusters, and small and medium scale enterprises (SME) inclusion.
He assured industry stakeholders and participants maximum support by the NCDMB.
Business
AfCTA: NCDMB provides roadmap to $3.4tn continental market
By Modupe Asudo
The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board has outlined a practical framework for positioning Nigeria’s energy sector to access the African Continental Free Trade Area, following a strategic webinar focused on meeting rules-of-origin requirements for continental trade.
The Board held a pre-conference webinar on Wednesday ahead of the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit scheduled for Monday, February 9, 2026.
The engagement was attended by stakeholders from the oil and gas, power and renewable energy sectors, and they addressed how Nigerian products and services can qualify for preferential market access across 54 African countries with a combined gross domestic product of $3.4tn and a population of about 1.4 billion people.
Entitled ‘Meeting AfCFTA Origin Requirements in Energy Trade’, the webinar focussed on one of the major barriers facing Nigerian exporters under AfCFTA — structuring production and operations to meet origin requirements that determine eligibility for duty-free and preferential trade.
The initiative was supported by the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, and the Acting Director of Planning, Research and Statistics, Mr. Ene Ette, as part of preparations for the forthcoming Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, with the theme ‘Unlocking Africa’s Energy Future through AfCFTA: Trade, Innovation and Regional Integration’.
Speaking during the session, a communications analyst, Joseph Nwokedi, representing the Acting National Coordinator of Nigeria’s AfCFTA Coordination Office, Mrs Patience Okala, stressed the central role of energy in Africa’s economic integration under AfCFTA.
He urged Nigerian companies to shift their focus from Nigeria’s domestic market of about 200m people to the wider continental market of 1.4bn consumers.
“Without energy, there’s no industrialisation. Without energy, regional value chains remain aspirational,” Nwokedi said. “With AfCFTA, energy transforms from a domestic infrastructure issue into a tradable, investable and exportable sector within an integrated African market.”
He noted that even one per cent penetration of the African market translates to about 14m consumers, underscoring the scale of opportunity available to Nigerian energy firms.
The webinar identified four key pathways through which Nigeria’s energy sector can participate in AfCFTA-enabled trade. First, Nigeria’s Electricity Act of 2023 allows independent power producers to supply electricity directly to industrial clusters and export processing zones, positioning power generation as a foundation for trade-ready manufacturing.
Second, the country has submitted commitments under AfCFTA that enable professionals such as engineers, electricians, geophysicists and energy auditors to export services across Africa, subject to mutual recognition of qualifications.
Third, refined petroleum products, gas derivatives, electricity and renewable energy components can be traded across borders under preferential tariffs, provided they meet AfCFTA rules of origin.
Fourth, AfCFTA’s investment protocol, combined with recent domestic reforms, including the Presidential Directives on Investment Incentives for 2024–2025, strengthens Nigeria’s credibility for attracting cross-border investments in power generation, transmission, renewable energy and storage infrastructure.
Delivering a technical presentation, Assistant Comptroller of Customs, Burhan Sulaiman, explained that AfCFTA would eliminate tariffs on 90 per cent of goods traded within the bloc over five to 10 years, with an additional seven per cent liberalised over 13 years. However, he stressed that these benefits were conditional on meeting origin requirements.
“Companies lose benefits because origin was treated as an afterthought,” Sulaiman said. “You must build in origin compliance from the beginning, not while already running your project. Origin determines whether you export duty-free or pay full tariffs.”
He clarified that origin is determined by where economic production takes place, not by company ownership or registration. Foreign-owned companies producing in Nigeria can export as Nigerian origin, while Nigerian companies importing finished goods cannot claim AfCFTA preferences.
Sulaiman explained that products qualify for preferential access through two routes. “Wholly obtained” goods are entirely produced within AfCFTA member states, such as crude oil and natural gas extracted in Nigeria, as well as locally generated electricity regardless of fuel source.
The second route, “substantial transformation”, applies where foreign inputs are used and requires compliance with one of three tests: a change in tariff classification; a value-addition threshold limiting foreign content to between 30 and 60 per cent of ex-works price; or completion of specific prescribed processes such as distillation, cracking or reforming for petroleum products.
He provided sector-specific guidance, noting that in oil and gas, locally extracted crude and gas qualify, just as refined petroleum products that meet processing requirements. However, simple blending, basic distillation operations and modular refineries using imported crude without substantial transformation do not qualify.
In the power sector, he explained, locally generated electricity and regionally manufactured equipment with deep component transformation qualify, while installation-only activities, imported turbines, transformers and switchgear mounting do not.
“For renewables, regional solar cell and battery cell manufacturing with deep component processing qualify,” he said, adding that panel installation alone, simple module assembly and packaging imported batteries do not meet the thresholds.
Sulaiman warned that without regional manufacturing accumulation, power equipment exports fail origin tests.
According to him, the Nigeria Customs Service applies a five-step verification process for origin claims, including confirming accurate HS codes, reviewing production records, testing for minimal operations, verifying African input origins and ensuring consistency across certificates, production records and cost documentation.
“Weak documentation kills origin claims. Even genuinely originating products can be denied if documentation is incomplete or inaccurate,” he noted.
Both speakers emphasised that origin compliance should be treated as a core business strategy rather than a regulatory formality.
“Origin is not paperwork; it is strategy,” Sulaiman said. “It shapes where you locate facilities, how you source inputs, and where you sign regional contracts. Treat it as strategic from day one.”
Nwokedi urged Nigerian firms to act early. “AfCFTA is happening now. Early movers will shape supply chains, standards and partnerships. Are you going to lead, or simply follow?”
Officials also provided updates on AfCFTA implementation, noting that 92 per cent of rules of origin had been agreed, with negotiations ongoing in the textiles and automotive sectors.
An online dispute resolution mechanism has been established to coordinate Customs authorities, standards bodies and complainants.
Nigeria has deployed a fully operational electronic certification system for paperless trade, while Nigerian Customs is introducing risk-management frameworks that could allow exporter self-certification on commercial invoices.
Following a five-year implementation review led by the Minister of Industry and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, government sensitisation efforts have intensified through partnerships with the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture; Women’s Chambers of Commerce; zonal outreach programmes and ‘P3 engagements’ involving the press, private sector and public institutions.
“The government will not trade under AfCFTA — our exporters will,” officials said. “If they win, we win.”
Nigerian Customs also reiterated its open-door policy for pre-export origin verification to help businesses avoid delays and additional costs at the border.
The webinar highlighted Nigeria’s potential as a regional energy and transition-fuel hub, building on frameworks such as the West African Power Pool to support cross-border electricity trade.
Key recommendations included structuring projects for origin compliance from inception, forming regional joint ventures, aligning with continental standards and leveraging AfCFTA service commitments to export Nigerian energy expertise.
The session ended with confirmation that the webinar was a technical precursor to the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, which will convene policymakers, industry leaders and trade experts to develop strategies for maximising Africa’s energy potential under the AfCFTA framework.






