NEWS
CPPE Foresees Subsidy Leading Nigeria to Bankruptcy
By Edozie Obasi-Eze
The Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE) has projected that barring changes to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Nigeria’s subsidy cost may hit N4 trillion by the end of the year, which might lead the country to bankruptcy.
Chief Executive Officer (CEO), CPPE, Nigeria’s subsidy, expressed his opinion yesterday at its first-quarter press conference on the Nigerian economy.
He said, “With current subsidy trajectory, subsidy cost would not be less than N4 trillion by the end of this year. This is clearly a major source of disruption and dislocation for the finances of government at all levels.”
He averred that all things being equal, that is, if crude oil price did not shift from the current levels and the PMS price stayed fixed, Nigeria would be on the brink of bankruptcy, because the current subsidy regime was not sustainable.
He also opined that the deregulation dialogue needs to be brought to the table urgently to save the economy from further deterioration.
Dr Yusuf stressed that brave steps must be taken to ignite the reform process in the petroleum sector with the full activation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
He maintained that in the interim, all charges – import duty, levies, and taxes on importation should be suspended to moderate the cost of fuel, though the ultimate solution would be to revisit the deregulation engagement with stakeholders to pave way for a market-driven, private sector-led investment framework, with the government playing a regulatory role.
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“This is the option we have as a country to stop the bleeding, the distortions, the smuggling and loss of investment that our petroleum downstream sector had suffered over the years,” he added.
He listed the possible benefits of a market-driven pricing regime to include free resources for investment in critical infrastructures such as power, roads, rail systems, health sector, and education sector; unlocking the huge private investment potential in the downstream oil sector, especially in petroleum product refining.
According to him, it would also eliminate the patronage mentality, rent-seeking activities, and corruption that currently characterise the downstream oil sector, in addition to creating more jobs for the teeming youths in the downstream oil sector as an investment in the sector improves; would reduce smuggling of petroleum products outside the country.
The Russia Ukraine war, which he observed has disrupted global oil and gas supplies and resulted in sharp increases in energy prices globally, was already taking a toll on the cost of production, cost of business operations, haulage costs, and consequently on profit margin.
“The cost of the major energy products had increased significantly – diesel, aviation fuel, natural gas, and kerosene. The inflationary outcomes will affect the affordability of many products, leading to further worsening of poverty.
“We will see an increase in subsidy payment as the landing cost of petrol increases. Regrettably, we remain a major importer of petroleum products. Therefore, when oil prices increase, subsidy payment also surges. Only recently the estimate of subsidy was put at N3 trillion by the NNPC. That was before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The story would have changed now. We should expect subsidy payments to exceed the N3 trillion by the end of the year, depending on how long the sanctions and invasion last. This of course has very serious implications for our budget and government finances.
“If crude oil price remains at current levels, and the PMS price remains fixed, the country may be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. The current subsidy payment regime is simply not sustainable. The deregulation dialogue needs to urgently resume to save the economy from further deterioration,” he noted.
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has raised concerns over alleged monopolistic practices by Dangote Refinery, following a public dispute about fuel pricing in the downstream petroleum sector.
Recall that the refinery, Africa’s largest, recently disclosed its petrol pricing at N990 per litre in trucks and N960 per litre into ships, a move it justifies as being in line with international rates.
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PETROAN, however, sees this as an attempt to suppress competitors and dominate the Nigerian market.
The rift began when Dangote Refinery claimed that complaints from marketers regarding its pricing were fueled by intentions to import cheaper, potentially substandard products.
In response, PETROAN strongly rejected these allegations, suggesting that Dangote’s claims are tactics designed to maintain a monopoly in the sector.
Joseph Obele, PETROAN’s spokesperson, stated that the association remains committed to importing high-quality products at more competitive rates to ensure affordability for Nigerian consumers.
According to PETROAN, competition in the market is essential for achieving fair pricing, and any attempt to stifle it would be detrimental to consumers.
They argue that Dangote Refinery’s pricing should reflect production costs and fair margins rather than international benchmarks, especially given concessions granted by the government for the refinery’s establishment.
PETROAN also announced its plans to partner with foreign refineries and financial backers to import premium-quality petroleum products at prices below current rates.
The association aims to enter the market by December 2024, pending necessary regulatory approvals.
“The allegations that PETROAN will import substandard products are unfounded and aimed at creating an unfair playing field,” the statement read.
PETROAN warned that similar claims in the past had led to significant price hikes when competitors were pushed out, emphasizing that the entry of new players into the market would lead to more competitive pricing and ultimately benefit Nigerian consumers.
PETROAN expressed appreciation for President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to revitalizing Nigeria’s state-owned refineries and urged the government to consider privatizing the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries once rehabilitation is complete.
The association believes a transparent privatization process will help strengthen Nigeria’s downstream sector and counter monopolistic tendencies.
To address the ongoing pricing challenges in the sector, PETROAN called on the government to convene a comprehensive meeting of industry stakeholders, including major associations like IPMAN, DAPPMAN, MEMAN, NUPENG, and PENGASSAN.
PETROAN believes that collaboration among these groups will be instrumental in establishing a sustainable and competitive pricing framework for petroleum products in Nigeria.
Sultan of Sokoto, Sa’ad Mohammad Abubakar II, has called on Nigerians to avoid publicly criticizing their leaders, instead urging citizens to place their trust in God to address leadership concerns as He deems fit.
Speaking at the Regional Conference on Climate Change-Induced Conflicts in Northern Nigeria, organized by the Kaduna State Bureau of Interfaith in collaboration with International Alert, the Sultan emphasized faith and patience in navigating the country’s challenges.
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Acknowledging Nigeria’s current economic and social hardships, the Sultan encouraged continuous prayer, not only for the nation but for its leaders as well.
“Even though many feel times are particularly hard, we believe relief will come. Let’s increase our prayers for our leaders, trusting God to address them in His way,” he said, expressing hope that divine intervention could bring stability and prosperity.
The Sultan reminded political leaders of their ultimate accountability to God, cautioning that they will stand alone on the Day of Resurrection, with only their deeds to support them.
“On that day, every leader will stand alone. Governors, advisers—none will have support except their own deeds. Let us act with a deep sense of responsibility and fear of God,” he stated.
Addressing religious leaders, he warned against misleading their followers for personal gain, underscoring the trust many place in their religious guidance.
“Only God can save any human being,” he said, encouraging Nigerians to remain faithful and discerning in their spiritual beliefs. “Focus on worshiping Allah and leave the rest to Him. Don’t follow those who might lead you astray.”
With leaders from various religious communities, including the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), in attendance, the Sultan called for unity, resilience, and communal effort to tackle pressing issues such as climate change, poverty, and insecurity in the northern region.
He praised the North’s history of unity and resilience, warning against divisive narratives that threaten communal harmony. “When we are united, we can face any challenge and build a prosperous community,” he asserted.
The Sultan’s remarks come amid ongoing social and environmental issues in the region, including a recent surge in climate-related challenges that have exacerbated poverty and security threats.
In light of these issues, he called on both Muslims and Christians to intensify their prayers, saying, “Our country faces many challenges, and we must turn to God in prayer. Let us intensify prayers in our mosques and churches.”
In a decisive move, President Bola Tinubu has ordered the immediate release of all minors detained by police during the recent #EndBadGovernance protests.
The directive, announced by Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris on Monday, underscores the government’s commitment to protecting children’s rights and ensuring justice.
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Idris confirmed that President Tinubu’s directive prioritizes the welfare of detained minors, instructing the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs to facilitate their safe reunification with their families.
A committee led by the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs will be established to oversee the welfare of the released minors and ensure compliance with the president’s orders.
Additionally, President Tinubu has directed a formal investigation into the actions of law enforcement agencies involved in the arrests.
The president emphasized that any misconduct uncovered during the investigation will result in disciplinary action, affirming his administration’s dedication to accountability within law enforcement.
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