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Dangote, NMDPRA Feud Escalates Despite Commission’s Leadership Change

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The dispute between the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) continues to flare up.

The two warring sides are presently at loggerheads over the current production capacity at the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery in the Ibeju-Lekki area of Lagos and its actual contribution to Nigeria’s fuel needs.

The two sides have been making claims and counter claims on the refinery’s actual petrol output. While the refinery claimed it has enough fuel in its storage and that fuel tankers have been loading over 50 million litres of petrol daily from its gantry for local consumption, the NMDPRA is giving a much lower figure.

According to the NMDPRA in its November 2025 Fact Sheet, Nigeria’s average petrol consumption in November 2025 stood at about 52.9 million litres per day. This figure exceeded the long-standing national benchmark of 50 million liters per day.

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The agency also claimed that imported fuel accounted for 73 per cent of Nigeria’s premium motor spirit consumption in November 2025. This means that Dangote Refinery supplied an estimated 18 million to 23.5 million litres per day in November 2025, an amount that is well below its reported output of 35 million liters per day.

The implication of the NMDPRA’s latest figures is that domestic supply remains both unstable and inadequate.

Facts Behind The Figures

NMDPRA’s supply and consumption data have pitched the management of the two organizations against each other, with each side justifying its numbers.

BH recalled that the latest feud between the two parties is a continuation of a public altercation between the President of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), Alhaji Aliko Dangote and the former NMDPRA CEO, Farouk Ahmed, over the agency’s underreporting of Dangote’s fuel figures, and the continued issuance of licences to marketers to import petroleum products.

The conflict eventually led to the unexpected sacking of the NMDPRA’s boss by President Bola Tinubu in December 2025.

Speaking recently at a media event in Lagos, where he faulted NMDPRA’s data, a visibly angry Aliko Dangote claimed the industry regulator was not telling Nigerians the truth.

He challenged the agency to send a team to the refinery to verify its fuel production and availability status.

“The regulator is very smart. What it is doing is telling Nigerians what was being taken out of the refinery. What has been taken out of the refinery is totally different from what has been produced.

“When we got tired of all this misleading information, we wrote him a letter telling him to come every day to check our stock and publish what we produce and what we have in stock.

“Now, you come every day, check our stock, which we don’t want to share before because people can take a position on that, you know, stocks.

“That’s how the market works. But we don’t even mind losing money. So, that Nigerians can be assured that there’s more than enough to supply the domestic market,” Dangote said.

While Dangote Refinery and NMDPRA’s officials are busy justifying their fuel supply figures, Business Hallmark findings revealed that NMDPRA’s supplied data on the actual fuel consumption figures in the country and who supplied what can not hold ground when juxtaposed with available facts.

For instance, multiple sources confirmed to our correspondent that Dangote’s fuel has gained more inroad into the Nigerian market in the last six months than acknowledged by the regulator, yet it has not changed things much and left room for import by marketers.

Manipulating Supply And Price

Multiple sources, including marketers lifting oil from the refinery and news channels reporting on activities at the mammoth plant, confirmed that the refinery has actually been loading over 1,000 tankers of petrol meant for the local market in the last three months.

Energy

WAEP Targets 24-Month Production Surge, Gas Monetisation to Unlock 1.6bn Barrels

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The Dangote Group’s upstream subsidiary, West Africa Exploration and Production Company (WAEP) is stepping up efforts to unlock more than 1.6 billion barrels of oil in place across its Nigerian assets, while targeting sustained production and gas monetisation within the next 24 months.

The company’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Olajumoke Cecilia Ajayi, said WAEP had adopted a phased strategy to revive production from its brownfield assets, generate early cash flow and reinvest the proceeds in wider field redevelopment.

Speaking at the AOW Energy Conference in Accra, Ghana, during a session titled “The Future of the African Operator: Building the IOCs of Tomorrow,” Ajayi said the company’s Oil Mining Leases 71 and 72, previously operated by Shell, represented a substantial resource opportunity, with more than 1.6 billion barrels of oil in place and about 1.9 trillion cubic feet of gas, based on discoveries to date.

The session, which also featured Olumide Ogunfowora, Adegbola Adesina, Temitope Edun and Uduakobong Equere, examined how African owned exploration and production companies can develop the technical, financial and institutional capacity required to compete at scale and take a larger role in the continent’s upstream industry. Ajayi, who is also President of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE), later moderated a separate session, “The Nigerian Upstream Opportunity: Unpacking Nigeria’s Basins.”

For WAEP, she said, the immediate priority is to extract value from existing production opportunities while building the foundation for long term redevelopment. “The first thing is to look at the low hanging fruit, the short term oil gains, generate cash flow from that, put it back into the assets and start redevelopment. And that’s exactly what is happening currently,” Ajayi said.

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The strategy is already moving into the execution phase as Ajayi noted that WAEP had signed contracts for three jack up rigs, with drilling expected to begin in December as the company seeks to increase production and unlock additional value from the OML 71 and OML 72 portfolio. “We will be drilling to ramp up production and also bring out the value in the asset,” she said. The drilling campaign is being supported by six field development plan studies currently under way, which Ajayi said would provide the basis for a series of “back to back developments” across the portfolio.

The combination of near term production opportunities, development drilling and field planning is expected to create a pipeline of activity beyond the initial drilling campaign. A potentially significant element of WAEP’s strategy is its relationship with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, which Ajayi identified as a potential domestic market for the company’s crude.

“One of the shareholders, one of the partners on this asset, is the owner of the largest refinery in Africa, Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals. So the oil would definitely be needed by the refinery,” she said.

The relationship could strengthen the link between Nigerian upstream production and domestic refining at a time when the country is seeking to retain more value from its crude within the domestic energy system.

Ajayi said WAEP was also working towards establishing a dedicated terminal to support crude evacuation as production increases. The proposed terminal could potentially serve not only WAEP but other producers seeking to aggregate and evacuate crude, creating an additional commercial opportunity around the company’s infrastructure.

Ajayi said the evolution of African independent operators would ultimately depend on their ability to transform asset ownership into sustained production and value creation. For companies taking over mature or brownfield assets from international oil companies, she said, the challenge extends beyond reserves and licences to include technical expertise, capital deployment, operational discipline and the ability to sustain production.

That capability, she said, was central to WAEP’s strategy. “We need to put round pegs in round holes. We need to put the right skill and competence in the different units,” Ajayi said. She said the company had been deliberate about strengthening its technical and organisational capabilities as it prepares for the next phase of development.

Within the next 24 months, she expects the company to have significantly ramped up production while putting gas monetisation infrastructure and arrangements in place. “Between now and the next 24 months, gas monetisation would have been in place. We would have ramped up production consistently,” she said. “Not produce today, tomorrow you are down. Consistent, sustained production.”

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Why Fuel Prices Remain Volatile — NMDPRA

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Subsidy Removal: NMDPRA Assures Smooth Fuel Supply

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has identified crude oil sourcing, single-source domestic refining, logistics and transportation costs among factors driving volatility in fuel pump prices.

Head of Public Affairs, NMDPRA, Mr George Ene-Ita, made this known in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria in Abuja on Sunday.

Ene-Ita described the issues surrounding continuous fuel price increases as knotty, adding that fuel prices had been completely deregulated and were, therefore, subject to market volatility.

He said the sourcing of crude oil as feedstock and the time lag between crude procurement and arrival at refineries were factored into product pricing.

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According to him, marine and inland taxes associated with the movement and supply of petroleum products were also factored into the pricing.

“This issue is knotty in the sense that there are various factors involved.

“Pump price of petrol has been completely deregulated. And if this is the case, it also means that all volatilities associated with supply have to be factored in.

“These factors include single-source domestic refining, sourcing of crude oil as feedstock, time lag between when crude is sourced offshore and when it eventually arrives at the refinery.

“They also include time lag between when PMS cargoes are ordered and when they eventually arrive our ports for subsequent inland distribution and supply in the case of imported fuel.

“There are also transportation and landing costs, as well as marine and inland taxes.

“Perhaps when the domestic refining ecosystem becomes more robust, competitive and sustainable, the issues regarding pricing will become clearer and more beneficial to consumers,” he said.

Ene-Ita said refinery pricing templates and ex-depot prices were not regulated under the current framework.

He, however, said NMDPRA was collaborating with stakeholders and agencies such as the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission to ensure price equilibrium and parity at the last mile.

NAN reports that the current market price for Brent crude oil is $96.28 per barrel, driven by the ongoing geopolitical conflict and tensions in the Middle East.

The pump price of fuel currently ranges between N1,299 and N1,350 in the FCT, following an upward adjustment in the gantry (ex-depot) price by the Dangote Refinery, which ranges between N1,265 and N1,290 per litre.

Motorists and consumers have expressed concern over the continued rise in fuel pump prices, saying it has worsened hardship, inflation and the high cost of living.

Reacting to this, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria urged the Federal Government to intervene in crude oil pricing for domestic refining to moderate fuel prices and ease pressure on consumers.

IPMAN President, Maigandi Garima, told NAN that the current international crude oil market posed challenges to domestic petrol pricing because refiners had to procure crude at prevailing market prices.

Garima said higher crude oil prices translated into higher production costs for refiners, who would subsequently pass the additional cost to the market.

He called for government intervention to reduce the cost of crude supplied to domestic refineries during periods of international market volatility.

According to him, such intervention should not be interpreted as a return to fuel subsidy, but as a temporary measure to support domestic refining and reduce pressure on consumers.

“What we are saying is that if Nigerians can make this huge investment, we should support them. Government can intervene by reducing the cost of crude oil to the refinery.

“When the refinery refines the product at a lower cost, it can also reduce the price for Nigerians, and this will help the economy,” he said.

Garima also called for a more predictable crude oil pricing arrangement for domestic refineries, saying frequent fluctuations made it difficult to sustain stable fuel prices.

He urged the government and relevant stakeholders to explore mechanisms that would provide a more stable crude supply and pricing framework for domestic refining.

He said such an arrangement would enable domestic refineries to plan better and potentially provide more stable prices for petroleum products.

Courtesy – NAN

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Unlocking Africa’s Upstream Lies in Stronger Partnerships – Oando

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The need to unlock Africa’s upstream potential has seen a call for stronger partnerships between governments, regulators, operators, and host communities.

General Manager (GM), Security, Government & External Relations at Oando Energy Resources, Kofo Olagunju, made the call during a panel discussion at the Africa Oil Week (AOW Energy) in Accra, Ghana.

The AOW held with the theme: “Building Dialogue, Leadership: Exploring the Challenges of Both Government and Private Sector Frameworks for Upstream Development,” Olagunju said such collaboration was critical to unlocking investment and driving sustainable growth across Africa’s upstream sector.

The discussion examined how African governments and private sector players can better align policies, regulatory frameworks, and commercial priorities to create the certainty required to attract investment and accelerate upstream development across the continent.

Olagunju argued that the relationship between regulators and operators must evolve beyond traditional oversight towards a more constructive partnership built on mutual understanding and shared responsibility.

“What we have seen in recent years is a growing recognition by both operators and regulators that we are ultimately working towards a shared objective.

Real progress requires genuine partnership, one in which regulators understand the operational realities and challenges faced by the industry, while operators remain mindful of the broader developmental and regulatory priorities governments are seeking to advance.”

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Olagunju, was joined on the panel by Cany Jobe, Director General, Petroleum Commission, The Gambia; IK Innocent Kihika, Board Member, Petroleum Authority of Uganda; Joe Kofi Mensah, Senior Vice President (SVP) & Head, Ghana Business Unit, Kosmos Energy; and Liz Ross, GM, New Ventures Exploration & M&A, Africa & Europe, CNOOC International.

From an investor perspective, Joe Kofi Mensah, SVP & Head, Ghana Business Unit, Kosmos Energy, outlined the conditions required to create an environment capable of attracting long-term capital. “Creating an environment that attracts and sustains investment requires four critical elements: regulatory stability, speed, ease of doing business, and competitive fiscal terms. These factors must work together to create the certainty investors need to commit capital for the long term.”

Addressing the regulatory perspective, Cany Jobe, Director General, Petroleum Commission, The Gambia, challenged the notion that governments must choose between protecting national interests and attracting investment. “Protecting national interests and enabling investment should not be viewed as competing objectives. A strong regulatory framework must achieve both, creating value for resource owners while providing investors with the clarity, predictability and commercial viability required to operate successfully.”

Turning to the role of host communities, Olagunju highlighted the shift towards deeper community participation in the success and sustainability of upstream operations. “Host communities have evolved from being neighbours to the resources, to stakeholders in the development process, and increasingly, to shareholders in the success of our operations.”

He stressed that sustainable operations depend on relationships that extend beyond regulatory compliance and transactional engagement. “For our operations to thrive, host communities must be integral partners in the journey. That requires more than compliance. It requires transparency, trust, and a shared understanding of the value that responsible resource development can create.”

The panel concluded with a call for African energy stakeholders to move beyond dialogue towards practical action, strengthening partnerships, and aligning regulatory and commercial frameworks to unlock responsible investment and long-term growth.

The AOW: Energy brings together African governments, energy companies, investors and industry stakeholders for critical dialogue on the opportunities and challenges shaping the continent’s upstream energy sector. Its 2026 edition provided a platform for dialogue on investment, policy, exploration, and the development of Africa’s energy resources.

Oando continues to bring its operational experience and indigenous perspective to critical industry conversations, advocating for the partnerships, policy certainty, and collaborative frameworks needed to unlock Africa’s energy potential, strengthen energy security, and deliver sustainable value for governments, investors, and host communities.

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