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Declining oil reserves: Urgent assessment of shale, coal, bitumen imperative- Experts

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By Kunle Kalejaye 
 
PORTHARCOURT– Experts in Nigeria’s Energy sector including technocrats and academia have urged the federal government as a matter of urgency to commence assessment of the nation’s shale oil and gas potential and coal deposits within the Anambra basin to address her declining crude oil reserves. 
 
‎They also urged government to commence assessment of hydrocarbon potential of parallic shale sequences within the Agbada and Akata shale formations.
 
‎The call was made during a two days forum held recently in Port Harcourt on Nigeria’s petroleum and power sector policy organised by Emerald Energy  Institute, EE, University of Port Harcourt, in collaboration with the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics, NAEE; the Centre for Petroleum, Energy Economics and Law, University of Ibadan, CPEEL; and the International Institute for Petroleum, Energy Law and Policy, IIPELP. 
 
They argued that these steps must be taken by the present administration in order to make the country more competitive in Africa and boost petroleum contribution to the country Gross Domestic Product, GDP.
 
During the panel discussion segment, participants noted that ‎government should as a matter of priority‎ incentivise oil and gas exploration and production to encourage companies, and to invest in power generation, as this will aid gas production for power generation, and consequently, transmission to the national grid.
At the end of the forum, in a two page communique, it was also agreed that government should decentralise off-grid electrification based on standardisation system, in other to provide electricity for remote rural households not covered by the national grid.
According to communique, the panellist noted that government should “incentivise the mix of renewable energy sources with fossil fuel back up, in other to provide affordable power capacity to homes and industries on demand.
“Government should involve or encourage private sector participation in provision of investment capital needed for electricity infrastructure development; develop market for electricity infrastructure and adequate policy framework to encourage private investment in the power sector.
“They should institute market-based energy sector reforms including pricing policies to provide the necessary incentives for consumers and producers to use and produce energy efficiently; enable institutional support that will encourage the culture of sound energy management in the industrial sector.
“There should be well-focused government intervention to support efficient utilization of abundant domestic renewable energy sources by the private sector.
Review and implement the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB).
“NNPC should, as stipulated in the PIB, operate as an incorporated joint venture, thus, they should source for capital from the financial markets.
“They should begin to explore her non-conventional hydrocarbon sources, as there is currently no commercial production of unconventional gas; as evidences abounds which confirms the presence of unconventional hydrocarbon resources within the Agbada formation.
“More so, there are existing geological, geo-chemical, petro-physical and basin modeling data that can be systematically integrated to identify and interpret locations of these resources in Nigeria.
Emphasize greater prudence in management of our petroleum and energy resources to guarantee sustainability. This can be achieved through instituting “
 
The forum had  in attendance, Prof. Joseph AJienka (Vice Chancellor, University of Port Harcourt); Dr. Osten O. Olorunsola (Former DPR Director), Dr. Jude Amaefule (Vice Chairman/CEO, Emerald Energy Resources Ltd); Prof. Yinka Omorogbe, Prof. Wumi Iledare (Director, EEI), Prof. Adeola Adenikinju (Director, CPEEL), Prof. Chijioke Nwaozuzu (Deputy Director, EEI), Prof. Adewale Dosunmu (Dean, Graduate School of Advanced Engineering Technology, University of Port Harcourt) and other panel discussants. 
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NNPC Discovers Over 4,800 Illegal Pipeline Connections

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited  has revealed the detection of more than 4,800 unauthorized connections on oil pipelines within the country, painting a troubling image of the nation’s primary source of revenue.

Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, communicated this information to the Senate Committee on Appropriations last Friday.

He said, “We have over 4,800 illegal connections on our pipelines. That means in some lines, within 100 kilometres of pipelines, you have as much as 300 insertions.

“Therefore, even when you produce the oil, you cannot deliver them at the required pressure and therefore the volume will also be less.”

As per the NNPC Ltd chief, individuals from various regions enter the Niger Delta, inserting unauthorized connections on pipelines in Nigeria’s oil-producing area.

This recent revelation follows a prior discovery of 295 illegal connections to the pipelines by the firm a year ago, underscoring the escalating issue of crude oil theft in Nigeria.

Two years earlier, Kyari had highlighted the country’s daily loss of 200,000 barrels of oil, amounting to $13 million due to theft and vandalism.

He further stated “We have two sets of losses, one coming from our products and the other coming from crude oil. In terms of crude losses, it is still going on. On the average, we are losing 200,000 barrels of crude every day.”

After the discovery, Nigeria’s security forces pledged to enhance security around the country’s pipelines.

To bolster this, the Federal Government granted a multi-billion naira pipelines surveillance contract to Tantita Security Services, headed by former militant leader Government Ekpemepulo, also known as Tompolo.

Despite facing criticism for this decision, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum, remains convinced that it was the appropriate course of action.

In August, following a tour of oil facilities in the Niger Delta, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri expressed gratitude to Tantita, commissioned by NNPC Ltd, for their ongoing work.

He also hinted at plans for further extensive endeavors in the future.

In 2021, after extensive debate and delays, the Petroleum Industry Bill was finally passed to attract increased foreign investment into the oil sector through amendments to regulations, royalties, and taxes.

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Dangote Refinery Set To Begin Fuel Production With First Crude Arrival

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Nigeria’s colossal $19 billion Dangote Refinery, after encountering several setbacks, is on the verge of kickstarting fuel production.

This achievement is heralded by the arrival of the first crude shipment, transported by the OTIS tanker carrying 950,000 barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude.

S&P Global, citing industry sources and tanker tracking data on spglobal.com, reported the tanker’s departure on December 6, en route to Lekki, the nearest land port to Dangote’s offshore crude receiving terminal.

Scheduled to reach its destination around 8 PM on December 7, the arrival of this shipment signifies the commencement of crude supplies for the refinery’s operations.

Chartered by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), the Suezmax tanker is an emblem of the initial crude supply to Dangote’s cutting-edge refinery, as disclosed by a West African oil trader familiar with the matter in the S&P report.

Even though the refinery was officially completed in May, the absence of domestic crude feedstock had hindered oil product manufacturing.

To address this, the NNPC, holding a 20% stake in the refinery, struck an agreement to provide 6 million barrels of crude oil as feedstock to the Dangote refinery in December.

This move aims to jumpstart operations and overcome the previous impediments.

Agbami, operated by Chevron, holds a prominent position among Nigeria’s major deepwater developments, producing around 100,000 barrels per day in the central Niger Delta.

Known for its light sweet crude qualities, with a specific gravity of 47.9 API and a low sulfur content of 0.04%, Agbami produces substantial amounts of naphtha and kerosene.

NNPC has chartered additional shipments from different Nigerian offshore fields to the refinery, marking the start of a sequence of planned crude supplies for the month, as mentioned by the oil trader.

Located on the outskirts of Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, the Dangote Refinery encountered repeated delays since its 2013 announcement, despite significant installation progress in 2019.

The refinery, designed to handle multiple crudes simultaneously, targets three Nigerian crude grades—Escravos, Bonny Light, and Forcados. When operating at full capacity, it aims to produce 327,000 barrels per day (b/d) of gasoline, 244,000 b/d of gasoil/diesel, 56,000 b/d of jet fuel/kerosene, and 290,000 metric tons per year of propane/LPG.

Dangote’s operations starting signify Nigeria’s hopes to lessen its reliance on gasoline imports, addressing the deficiencies of its existing refineries undergoing repairs. This shift is poised to reshape Nigeria’s oil industry, potentially leading to gasoline self-sufficiency by the 2040s.

Dangote officials anticipate an initial output of 370,000 barrels per day (b/d), emphasizing jet fuel and diesel production.

Industry analysts, however, project the refinery to reach its full operational capacity by mid-2025, although potential delays remain a looming concern.

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NNPCL Sets Dec 2024 Terminal Date For Fuel Importation

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has announced intentions to cease importing refined petroleum products by December 2024, anticipating full operational functionality for all national refineries by that time.

Group CEO, NNPC Ltd, Mele Kyari, shared this at a meeting with Speaker Tajudeen Abbas of the House of Representatives, who advocated for the privatisation of Nigeria’s refineries on Thursday.

Projections indicated the national oil firm’s revenue could climb to N4.5 trillion by the conclusion of 2023. Moreover, the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refining Company, managed by NNPCL, was slated for completion by December of the current year.

Meanwhile, Oil marketers verified on Thursday that the Port Harcourt refinery is set for operations, potentially starting in January 2024. They emphasized that once operational, this refinery could notably reduce the prices of refined petroleum products.

During the meeting in Abuja, Kyari asserted Nigeria’s intention to cease importing refined petroleum products by 2024, envisioning the country’s emergence as a net exporter of these commodities within the same year.

He outlined the plans for launching operations at the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.

Kyari reiterated that all refineries would operate at full capacity, ultimately paving the way for Nigeria to transition into a net exporter of petroleum products by the conclusion of 2024.

He attributed the inactivity of Nigeria’s refineries over the years to the petroleum subsidy, emphasizing that the removal of this subsidy was drawing significant private-sector investments into the sector.

Kyari said “I can confirm to you that by the end of December this year, we will start the Port Harcourt refinery; early in the first quarter of 2024, we will start the Warri refinery and by the end of 2024, Kaduna refinery will come into operation.

“This is the commitment we are giving today and you can hold us accountable for this. In 2024, many of the initiatives including the rehabilitation of our refineries and also the efforts of small-scale refineries, and the upcoming Dangote refinery, will make Nigeria a net exporter of petroleum products in 2024.

“We will no longer be talking about fuel importation by the end of 2024. I am very optimistic that this will crystallise.

Kyari promised that by the conclusion of 2023, the government’s anticipated revenue from the company would reach N4.5 trillion, emphasizing NNPCL’s adherence to the Petroleum Industry Act and its commitment to delivering value to shareholders.

Recall that in October 2023, it was reported that Nigeria’s monthly spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol, had reached approximately N843 billion due to NNPCL’s cessation of oil swaps.

In July of this year, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that during the post-deregulation period, spanning June 1 to June 28, 2023, the country’s total petrol consumption amounted to 1.36 billion litres, with an average daily consumption of 48.43 million litres.

The average ex-depot price of petrol, sourced solely from NNPCL as the importer, stands at about N580 per litre.

However, both NNPCL and oil marketers declared on Thursday that this substantial oil import expenditure would soon diminish.

They anticipated a drop once the Port Harcourt refinery commences production of refined petroleum products from January 2024, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

 

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