Oil
2015: OPEC insist crude oil production wont drop, advice against panic
LAGOS-OPEC’s oil production is unlikely to change much in 2015 and there is no need to panic at the crude price drop, OPEC’s secretary general said yesterday, adding to indications the exporter group is in no hurry to cut output. Abdullah al-Badri also said output of higher-cost oil suppl
OPEC headquarters, Vienna, Austria
ies such as shale would be curbed if oil remained at around $85 a barrel, while the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries enjoys lower costs and will see higher demand for its crude in the longer term. Oil’s drop below the $100-mark, the level many OPEC members had endorsed, has raised the question of whether OPEC will cut supply when it meets in November.
Badri said OPEC’s output was unlikely to change much next year, adding to signs a decision to cut in November is unlikely. “I don’t think 2015 will be far away from 2014 in terms of production,” Badri told reporters in London at the annual Oil & Money conference. “There is nothing wrong with the market.” Brent crude LCOc1 has dropped more than a quarter from above $115 per barrel in June as abundant supplies of high-quality oil such as U.S.
shale have overwhelmed demand in many markets, filling stocks worldwide. But lower prices pose a threat to supply outside OPEC. While OPEC’s oil production costs are low, as much as half of shale output would be under threat if prices remain at current levels, Badri said.
“If prices stay at $85, we will see a lot of investment, a lot of oil, going out of the market,” he told the conference. “About 65 percent of the producers, they have high costs. Not OPEC.” Badri did not predict the outcome of OPEC’s meeting on Nov. 27, saying the decision was up to the group’s oil ministers, and appealed for calm over the decline in prices. “We do not see much change in the fundamentals. Demand is still growing, supply is also growing. OPEC is reviewing the situation,” he said.
The most important thing is we should not panic,” he said. “Unfortunately, everybody is panicking. We really need to sit, and think and see how this will develop. ”He dismissed suggestions that OPEC countries, in setting lower official selling prices for their crude oil, have embarked on a price war to preserve market share.
Badri declined to specify a level at which oil prices might find a floor, saying OPEC did not have a price target but would instead leave that to the market. “OPEC’s average price will still be $100 at the end of this year so we are fine for 2014,” he said. “The fundamentals do not reflect this low price.
OPEC does not have a price target. We must let the market settle down. ”Brent LCOc1 was trading around $87.30 by 10.30 a.m. EDT after reaching a four-year low of $82.60 two weeks ago. Badri said last month that he expected OPEC to lower its oil output target when it meets in Vienna, which would be its first formal output cut since the 2008 financial crisis.
OPEC has a production target of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) and Badri suggested last month that this should be cut to around 29.5 million bpd. Since then, OPEC members Iran and Kuwait have said a cut in output at the meeting was unlikely. Top producer Saudi Arabia has yet to comment publicly. Badri reiterated that supplies from rival producers, such as shale oil, were not a threat to OPEC long-term and said OPEC had to be ready to pump far more in future. “In the longer term, OPEC must be ready to produce. Around 2018-2020, U.S. tight oil will slow down,” he said. “By 2040, OPEC must be ready to produce 40 million bpd of oil, and 50 million bpd of liquids, that’s crude and natural gas liquids.”
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has revealed the detection of more than 4,800 unauthorized connections on oil pipelines within the country, painting a troubling image of the nation’s primary source of revenue.
Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, communicated this information to the Senate Committee on Appropriations last Friday.
He said, “We have over 4,800 illegal connections on our pipelines. That means in some lines, within 100 kilometres of pipelines, you have as much as 300 insertions.
“Therefore, even when you produce the oil, you cannot deliver them at the required pressure and therefore the volume will also be less.”
As per the NNPC Ltd chief, individuals from various regions enter the Niger Delta, inserting unauthorized connections on pipelines in Nigeria’s oil-producing area.
This recent revelation follows a prior discovery of 295 illegal connections to the pipelines by the firm a year ago, underscoring the escalating issue of crude oil theft in Nigeria.
Two years earlier, Kyari had highlighted the country’s daily loss of 200,000 barrels of oil, amounting to $13 million due to theft and vandalism.
He further stated “We have two sets of losses, one coming from our products and the other coming from crude oil. In terms of crude losses, it is still going on. On the average, we are losing 200,000 barrels of crude every day.”
After the discovery, Nigeria’s security forces pledged to enhance security around the country’s pipelines.
To bolster this, the Federal Government granted a multi-billion naira pipelines surveillance contract to Tantita Security Services, headed by former militant leader Government Ekpemepulo, also known as Tompolo.
Despite facing criticism for this decision, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum, remains convinced that it was the appropriate course of action.
In August, following a tour of oil facilities in the Niger Delta, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri expressed gratitude to Tantita, commissioned by NNPC Ltd, for their ongoing work.
He also hinted at plans for further extensive endeavors in the future.
In 2021, after extensive debate and delays, the Petroleum Industry Bill was finally passed to attract increased foreign investment into the oil sector through amendments to regulations, royalties, and taxes.
Nigeria’s colossal $19 billion Dangote Refinery, after encountering several setbacks, is on the verge of kickstarting fuel production.
This achievement is heralded by the arrival of the first crude shipment, transported by the OTIS tanker carrying 950,000 barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude.
S&P Global, citing industry sources and tanker tracking data on spglobal.com, reported the tanker’s departure on December 6, en route to Lekki, the nearest land port to Dangote’s offshore crude receiving terminal.
Scheduled to reach its destination around 8 PM on December 7, the arrival of this shipment signifies the commencement of crude supplies for the refinery’s operations.
Chartered by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), the Suezmax tanker is an emblem of the initial crude supply to Dangote’s cutting-edge refinery, as disclosed by a West African oil trader familiar with the matter in the S&P report.
Even though the refinery was officially completed in May, the absence of domestic crude feedstock had hindered oil product manufacturing.
To address this, the NNPC, holding a 20% stake in the refinery, struck an agreement to provide 6 million barrels of crude oil as feedstock to the Dangote refinery in December.
This move aims to jumpstart operations and overcome the previous impediments.
Agbami, operated by Chevron, holds a prominent position among Nigeria’s major deepwater developments, producing around 100,000 barrels per day in the central Niger Delta.
Known for its light sweet crude qualities, with a specific gravity of 47.9 API and a low sulfur content of 0.04%, Agbami produces substantial amounts of naphtha and kerosene.
NNPC has chartered additional shipments from different Nigerian offshore fields to the refinery, marking the start of a sequence of planned crude supplies for the month, as mentioned by the oil trader.
Located on the outskirts of Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, the Dangote Refinery encountered repeated delays since its 2013 announcement, despite significant installation progress in 2019.
The refinery, designed to handle multiple crudes simultaneously, targets three Nigerian crude grades—Escravos, Bonny Light, and Forcados. When operating at full capacity, it aims to produce 327,000 barrels per day (b/d) of gasoline, 244,000 b/d of gasoil/diesel, 56,000 b/d of jet fuel/kerosene, and 290,000 metric tons per year of propane/LPG.
Dangote’s operations starting signify Nigeria’s hopes to lessen its reliance on gasoline imports, addressing the deficiencies of its existing refineries undergoing repairs. This shift is poised to reshape Nigeria’s oil industry, potentially leading to gasoline self-sufficiency by the 2040s.
Dangote officials anticipate an initial output of 370,000 barrels per day (b/d), emphasizing jet fuel and diesel production.
Industry analysts, however, project the refinery to reach its full operational capacity by mid-2025, although potential delays remain a looming concern.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has announced intentions to cease importing refined petroleum products by December 2024, anticipating full operational functionality for all national refineries by that time.
Group CEO, NNPC Ltd, Mele Kyari, shared this at a meeting with Speaker Tajudeen Abbas of the House of Representatives, who advocated for the privatisation of Nigeria’s refineries on Thursday.
Projections indicated the national oil firm’s revenue could climb to N4.5 trillion by the conclusion of 2023. Moreover, the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refining Company, managed by NNPCL, was slated for completion by December of the current year.
Meanwhile, Oil marketers verified on Thursday that the Port Harcourt refinery is set for operations, potentially starting in January 2024. They emphasized that once operational, this refinery could notably reduce the prices of refined petroleum products.
During the meeting in Abuja, Kyari asserted Nigeria’s intention to cease importing refined petroleum products by 2024, envisioning the country’s emergence as a net exporter of these commodities within the same year.
He outlined the plans for launching operations at the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.
Kyari reiterated that all refineries would operate at full capacity, ultimately paving the way for Nigeria to transition into a net exporter of petroleum products by the conclusion of 2024.
He attributed the inactivity of Nigeria’s refineries over the years to the petroleum subsidy, emphasizing that the removal of this subsidy was drawing significant private-sector investments into the sector.
Kyari said “I can confirm to you that by the end of December this year, we will start the Port Harcourt refinery; early in the first quarter of 2024, we will start the Warri refinery and by the end of 2024, Kaduna refinery will come into operation.
“This is the commitment we are giving today and you can hold us accountable for this. In 2024, many of the initiatives including the rehabilitation of our refineries and also the efforts of small-scale refineries, and the upcoming Dangote refinery, will make Nigeria a net exporter of petroleum products in 2024.
“We will no longer be talking about fuel importation by the end of 2024. I am very optimistic that this will crystallise.
Kyari promised that by the conclusion of 2023, the government’s anticipated revenue from the company would reach N4.5 trillion, emphasizing NNPCL’s adherence to the Petroleum Industry Act and its commitment to delivering value to shareholders.
Recall that in October 2023, it was reported that Nigeria’s monthly spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol, had reached approximately N843 billion due to NNPCL’s cessation of oil swaps.
In July of this year, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that during the post-deregulation period, spanning June 1 to June 28, 2023, the country’s total petrol consumption amounted to 1.36 billion litres, with an average daily consumption of 48.43 million litres.
The average ex-depot price of petrol, sourced solely from NNPCL as the importer, stands at about N580 per litre.
However, both NNPCL and oil marketers declared on Thursday that this substantial oil import expenditure would soon diminish.
They anticipated a drop once the Port Harcourt refinery commences production of refined petroleum products from January 2024, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
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