Business
Fed poised for $10 billion taper as Bernanke bids adieu
NEW YORK – Turmoil in emerging markets and a month of disappointing job growth at home are unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from trimming its bond-buying stimulus on Wednesday, as Ben Bernanke wraps up his last policy meeting at the helm of the U.S. central bank.
Overall signs of improvement in the U.S. economy suggest Fed officials will stay on track to cut monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each, bringing the total of their monthly asset purchases to $65 billion.
The meeting is Bernanke’s last before Vice Chair Janet Yellen moves into the top spot.
Bernanke took the Fed far into uncharted territory during his eight years on the job, building a $4 trillion balance sheet and keeping interest rates near zero for more than five years to pull the economy from its worst downturn in decades.
With those efforts beginning to pay off – and concerns growing over possible harm from so much money printing – the Fed
announced plans last month to phase out the bond buying by late this year unless the economy takes a decided turn for the worse.
It started by trimming its monthly purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, and on Wednesday, the U.S. central bank is expected to shave another $10 billion.
“It’s clear the Fed wants to taper,” said Eric Stein, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance in Boston.
Even so, the Fed is nowhere near to making a decision to raise rates. Policymakers are expected to stick to their promise to keep rates near zero until well after the U.S. unemployment rate, now at 6.7 percent, falls to 6.5 percent. The Fed is set to announce its decision at 2 p.m. EST.
A dismal employment report for December showing businesses added far fewer jobs than expected raised some doubts about the Fed’s commitment to keep tapering its stimulus.
But largely upbeat data in recent weeks, from consumer spending and confidence to industrial production, bolstered the view of an improving economy, which forecasters estimate grew at an above-trend annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter after notching a 4.1 percent advance in the previous quarter.
The show of strength provides a welcome backdrop for Bernanke, who steps down on Friday after an unusually tumultuous and highly experimental stint atop the world’s most influential central bank.
EMERGING DISTRACTIONS
Steep losses in emerging market assets over the past week led some to question whether the Fed might put plans to trim its bond buying on hold. Analysts said the prospect of less Fed stimulus had added to other worries, from signs of slower growth in China to political turmoil in countries from Turkey to Thailand, and helped spark investors’ flight.
But on Wednesday, Turkey’s central bank sharply raised its main interest rates, stemming both a slide in the lira and fears about cuts in U.S. monetary stimulus.
That move could make the Fed’s decision to trim its bond buying even easier, economists said.
“It would take a full-blown crisis that ensnares all (emerging market economies) to have a material effect on the U.S. economy, and I don’t think that’s what they see,” said Roberto Perli, a former Fed official who is now a Washington-based partner at economic research firm Cornerstone Macro.
“Clearly emerging-market financial markets are in turmoil for reasons that have little or nothing to do with the Fed likely tapering again.”
That is not to say the decision will be a slam dunk.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher, who is a voter on the central bank’s policy-setting panel this year, has argued for a more aggressive withdrawal of purchases.
On the other end of the spectrum, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, also a voter, has argued for more, not less, stimulus, and that view could translate into a dissent.
Still, the Fed puts a high premium on consensus, and Kocherlakota may feel that presenting a united front on policy could be a stabilizing force for financial markets, Eaton Vance’s Stein said.
“I don’t think it’s completely pro forma,” he added, “but I do think the consensus of the committee is to taper, about in line with the last meeting.”
– REUTERS
A recent review of budget performance across Nigerian states has revealed that none managed to exceed a 60% execution rate between January and September 2024.
The underwhelming performance raises concerns about the states’ readiness to handle the ambitious budgets they have planned for the 2025 fiscal year.
From Katsina to Akwa Ibom, states struggled to meet their budget targets, with execution rates ranging from 26.9% to 55.1%.
The review highlights inefficiencies in fiscal planning, low internal revenue generation, and a reliance on federal allocations and borrowing.
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Katsina State: Allocated N481.7 billion for 2024 but spent just N216.4 billion, representing 44.9% budget performance.
The state recorded an internally generated revenue (IGR) of N29.9 billion.
Jigawa State: With a budget of N383.5 billion, the state spent N174.8 billion (45.6%) and generated N18.4 billion internally.
Niger State: Budget execution stood at 30.4%, with N252.2 billion spent out of N829.4 billion. IGR was N29.2 billion, representing just 3.5% of the budget.
Abia State: Achieved 30.3% performance, spending N171.8 billion of its N567.2 billion budget, with IGR at N22.1 billion.
Anambra State: Spent N132.5 billion out of N410.3 billion (32.3%) and generated N28.2 billion internally.
Ondo State: Executed 52.3% of its N395.2 billion budget, spending N206.6 billion, with IGR at N24.4 billion.
Oyo State: Spent N210.9 billion out of N438.4 billion (48.1%), recording the highest IGR among reviewed states at N45.7 billion.
Bauchi State: Achieved 51.4% budget performance, spending N202.9 billion of its N394.8 billion allocation, while generating N15.9 billion internally.
Zamfara State: Executed 34.2% of its N426.5 billion budget, spending N145.8 billion, with IGR at N18.4 billion.
Adamawa State: Spent N154.8 billion out of N281.1 billion (55.1%) but generated only N9.1 billion internally.
Akwa Ibom: Recorded the lowest budget performance at 26.9%, spending N228.7 billion of its N849.9 billion budget. IGR stood at N41.4 billion.
Niger State’s fiscal performance stands out as a worrying case. Despite budgeting N829.4 billion for 2024, the state spent only N252.2 billion, relying heavily on federal allocations (N182 billion) and loans (N79 billion, covering 31.3% of expenditures). The state generated just N29.2 billion internally.
As Niger State plans to increase its budget to N1.5 trillion in 2025—a 48.3% rise from 2024—questions are being raised about its ability to finance such a massive appropriation.
Governor Mohammed Umaru Bago recently defended the state’s financial approach, claiming a 68.88% budget performance for 2024.
However, analysts have pointed out discrepancies in the state’s fiscal records.
“The numbers don’t add up,” said one analyst. “If Niger State relied on internally generated revenue alone, it would have achieved only 3.5% of its 2024 budget. The reliance on loans and federal allocations is unsustainable.”
The state’s fiscal challenges are not new. In 2023, Niger budgeted N473 billion but spent only N190.9 billion (40.3%).
It generated N18 billion internally, received N92.6 billion from the federation account, and borrowed N90 billion to bridge the gap.
The inability of states to execute their 2024 budgets effectively has raised doubts about their capacity to manage even larger budgets in 2025.
Fiscal experts are calling for a reassessment of budget planning and implementation processes to avoid deepening financial crises.
“There’s an urgent need for states to improve revenue generation and reduce dependence on loans,” said another expert. “Without these measures, achieving fiscal sustainability will remain a mirage.”
Following the marginal reduction of the pump prices of premium motor spirit (PMS) by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the Nigerian National Petrol Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), civil society groups have reacted by calling for further downward review.
Recall that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery had announced a partnership with MRS Oil and Gas to offer petrol at N935 per litre at retail outlets, while it reviewed the ex-depot price from N970 to N899.50 per litre.
The move, saw state oil major, the Nigeria National Petroleum Company peg its retail prices at N965/litre.
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However, the civil society groups are of the opinion that the price reduction, fall short of expectations.
According to the Chairman, Centre for Accountability and Open Leadership, Debo Adeniran, the reduced price of N935/litre was still expensive and unsatisfactory.
He pointed out that petrol was just one of the products coming out of crude and that both government and private business could still give out free petrol to citizens while making huge profits from the other products.
In his words, “Well, we believe that if NNPC and the private sector actually give out PMS for free, they will still not run their business at a loss, because the other derivatives of petroleum products can still serve them, and can still make them to break even. So, even at that N900 and something, it’s still expensive.
“Dangote has kind of mooted the idea that it could drop to as low as N650. And if he has mulled this, then it means that it is the state, it is the NNPC that will have been the clog in the wheel of such progress. And you know also that we expected that fuel prices, especially PMS prices, will drop below N200 when Dangote was expected to come on stream.
“So, it’s unfortunate that we are still talking about over N900 and they want us to jump up and rejoice for that. That is not satisfactory. They should just let us see the breakdown of their production cost and why it’s still there. I mean, there are countries like Libya under Gaddafi that gave out PMS for free and they didn’t run anything at any loss. So, I believe that it can still go further down.”
On his part, the Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, Ibrahim Rafsanjani, commended the reduction of fuel prices by the NNPC and Dangote, but said the government could still reduce the price.
“Dangote’s own is about N899 or something like that. Well first and foremost, we are happy that there is a little reduction in the prices. But also based on analysis and based on facts and evidences, we believe that it is possible for the Nigerian government to further reduce the prices.
“Because if a private company can reduce the price and it still makes profit, we wonder why government-owned enterprises cannot really pity its citizens,” he said.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced a significant growth in the country’s economy, with a 3.46% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2024.
This marks the third consecutive quarter of expansion, up from 3.19% in Q2 2024 and 2.54% in Q3 2023.
According to the newly published Q3 economic report, Nigeria’s GDP output rose to ₦20.115 trillion, reflecting a notable improvement from ₦18.285 trillion in the previous quarter.
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The CBN attributed this growth primarily to the performance of the non-oil sector, which grew by 3.37% compared to 2.80% in Q2 2024.
The report highlighted transportation, crop production, and other sub-sectors such as financial & insurance services, information & communication, trade, and real estate as major contributors to the expansion.
The non-oil sector accounted for 3.18 percentage points of the total growth rate.
“The expansion of the non-oil sector was driven by the performance of the financial & insurance, information & communication, crop production, trade, transportation & storage, and real estate sub-sectors,” the report stated.
Despite the economic growth, challenges persist. Inflation, particularly in food prices, remains a significant concern, standing at 39.93% as of November 2024.
Rising food and energy costs have also impacted transportation expenses, with intercity bus fares increasing by 20.23% year-on-year to ₦7,117.17 in July 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Furthermore, the cost of petroleum, now exceeding ₦1,000 per litre, has driven up logistics and transportation expenses, adding pressure to households and businesses alike.
The CBN acknowledged these challenges, noting that the growth was achieved despite headwinds such as high inflation and rising operational costs.
Enhanced security measures in the Niger Delta have boosted domestic crude oil production, while restrictive monetary policies have helped moderate inflation in some areas.
“The growth recorded in the country is a result of continued efforts to improve the business environment, streamline cumbersome business processes, and deepen the quality of business infrastructure,” the CBN noted.
However, the report comes amid concerns over businesses exiting Nigeria due to persistent economic challenges.
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