Palpable fear of mass tumult against the Nigerian Government owing to harsh economic realities might have forced the hand of the authorities in making public statements that there would be no further increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol.

But this has not gone down well with the independent marketers, who insist that given the current market realties, there would be costs that the government has to take up or would be passed to the people.

In plain language, the marketers are insisting that either subsidy is reinstated or market forces would continue to determine the prices of products.

Biztellers served you a report that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) made it clear that it was not considering an upward adjustment in the pump price of petrol.

The state oil company, took its verified X (initially Twitter) handle, @nnpclimited late Monday to make the assertion.

The tweet, seen in several quarters as a move to douse tensions, was addressed to customers.

It reads, “Dear esteemed customers, we at NNPC Retail value your patronage, and we do not have the intention to increase our PMS pump prices as widely speculated.

“Please buy the best quality products at the most affordable prices at our NNPC Retail Stations nationwide.”

Being sensitive to the fact that he had been sitting on a keg of gunpowder, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu followed up on the tweet by NNPCL with his own tweet, assuring that there would be no hike in the pump prices.

On Tuesday, President Tinubu in an attempt at reassuring the populace, declared that there would not increase in the pump price of petrol.

President Tinubu at his verified official X handle, @NGRPresident tweeted, “Mr President and the industry stakeholders who have been widely consulted and convinced, based on information before them, that we can maintain current pricing without reversing our deregulation policy by swiftly cleaning up existing inefficiencies within the midstream and downstream Petroleum sector.

“This is why there is no increase in prices at this time”.

The statement, which was per say, issued under the seal of President Tinubu under the subject, “On the Purported Pending Increase in Fuel Prices” was signed by Official Spokesperson to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Ajuri Ngelale.

Many informed Nigerians have been reacting to the posturing from government quarters – the NNPCL and the Presidency, in a way that has made it begin to sound like a grandstanding by the authorities.

For instance, the statement from President Tinubu had spoken about consulting and convincing stakeholders with available information.

It also pointed to ‘cleanup’ of certain areas of the midstream and downstream sector without letting the world know what was required, who would be responsible and how long it would take.

The first salvo against the attempt to pool the wool over the people’s eyes was from fiery Nigerian journalist, Rufai Oseni, who asked for details of what it cost to get petrol to the pump for dispensing to consumers.

He took to his verified X handle, @ruffydfire to call attention to the fact that information being bandied in the public might have been inadequate.

He tweeted, “Dear NNPC, kindly let us know how you calculate petrol prices in Nigeria, stating inspection cost, Landing from Amsterdam or Rotterdam to Togo or to Nigeria, then state other cost components that make up the final price, factor in fx fluctuations.

“Thank you”.

Another sensitive aspect is that those in power want the world to believe that the market has been deregulated and will remain so but the reality on ground speaks differently.

Fuel queues are already beginning to show in certain parts of Nigeria, including Lagos and Abuja, while price hike is manifest with independent marketers having adjusted pump prices in different locations in tune with realities.

The base pump price of petrol has shifted from N612/litre to N670/litre. It was gathered that that the minimum price applied to NNPCL Retail outlets and some other filling stations, while others determined what prices to sell at.

Expectations are rife that this adjustment would see petrol being sold at above N800/litre at filling stations across Nigeria in locations outside Lagos and Abuja.

It had been hovering around N750/lite in those locations before this recent impact of foreign exchange and Brent price at the global market.

As that is playing out, Ngelale shared a graphic presentation of pump prices of petrol across West Africa, depicting Nigeria as the lowest.

Interestingly the second and more important salvo had come from the stakeholders that President Tinubu’s statement claimed were consulted and convinced.

The Independent Oil Marketers have taken the position that only a return to the subsidy regime would see the current price maintained.

Secretary, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abuja-Suleja, Mohammed Shuaibu, on Tuesday, opined that government should reconsider reversing itself because the subsidy removal has come with adverse economic impact.

He said, “Let them not do the needful. (Else, there) will see the consequences. We learned this morning that Kenya, which equally removed subsidy and noticed that its effect was so hard on the citizens, has again resumed the subsidy regime for the period of two months,”

He added, “Government is about the people and must have a listening ear. For Nigeria, how can we be an oil producing nation with four refineries and all of them are down?

“When he (President Tinubu) announced it (subsidy removal), we said it was going to bring problems. Are we not feeling the consequences of that announcement now? It is forex that largely determines the cost of petroleum products here.

“Marketers are not willing to import products again. So, if the government is going to relax the removal of subsidy for a while, it should better do that as a matter of urgency.”

While the government quarters and the relevant stakeholders are engaged in what now appears to be mind games and structured perception management messaging, Oseni on Tuesday shared what he considered the presenting landing cost of petrol in Nigeria.

He tweeted, “A breakdown of the landing cost of petrol showed that while product cost, as of yesterday (Monday August 14, 2023), was N627.82 per litre, finance cost was N11.61, and operations/administrative cost, N12.32, bringing the total landing cost to N651.75 per litre”.

As things stand, it appears that the reality confronting Nigerians is sterner economic hardship which would follow additional increases in the pump prices of petrol.

Alternatively, the government would have to swallow her pride and go back to subsidy.

Analysts are of the opinion that all outlets serving petrol below the calculated landing cost must have an avenue to recoup the outlay, which signals the obituary of the subsidy removal policy of the President Tinubu administration.

Given that organised labour, through the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) had placed relevant stakeholders on notice of immediate industrial action any time pump price of petrol is increased, it portends that a lot of wisdom would be required to avert crises in the present circumstances.