Opinion/Feature
If I were Tinubu 3: Setting a Tinubunomic agenda – Part 1
By Segun Adeleye
‘When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice: but when the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn.’
To say things are tough in Nigeria will be an understatement, with fuel scarcity, naira redesign crisis, bad roads, poor power supply, joblessness among others things that make life miserable for citizens.
When COVID-19 hit the world in 2019, there was nothing like it in recent history as people were locked in their homes with little or no food, while government palliative measures in Nigeria to send food to homes failed. It was later discovered that some people hoarded food, waiting for the right time to sell and profit from the mysteries of fellow citizens.
Now fast forward to 2023. It was a bigger crisis created by the central bank in an attempt to redesign currencies and withdraw the old ones just few weeks to a national election that will produce new set of leaders that will serve for another four years.
As if the central bank got its research wrong that the volume of new currencies to replace the old ones being recalled would not adequately go round, the cash shortage crisis that resulted brought the entire economy to its knees, with small businesses closing down, hunger hitting homes while protests erupted across the country as banks closed down with no cash to disburse and the fear of being attacked.
Not a few people believe that the naira redesign crisis is worse than COVID-19 with the perennial fuel scarcity and power outages no longer seen as major contenders for the afflictions of the African most populous country.
From the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook for October 2022, Nigeria economy didn’t grow and perform as expected due to structural economic shocks and challenges brought about by the global fall in oil prices, which was a fall-out of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Nigeria’s economic potential is said to be constrained by many structural issues, including inadequate infrastructure, tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, obstacles to investment, lack of confidence in currency valuation, and limited foreign exchange capacity.
Other similar reports had traced Nigeria’s biggest economic problems to corruption, poor human development, over-dependence on crude oil, crime and terrorism, low export earnings, high rate of unemployment, lack of infrastructure among others.
With high inflation which hit 21.91% in February 2023, taking a toll on household’s welfare and high prices said to have pushed an additional 8 million Nigerians into poverty, the country is ranked 103 out of 121 countries in the 2022 Global Hunger Index (GHI), a position that signifies a level of hunger that is serious.
World Bank in its 2022 Poverty and Prosperity Report said Nigeria contributed three million people to global extreme poverty, while the country is “home to a large share of the global extreme poor.”
This is the economy that the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is going to inherit with unemployment rate of 32.1%, public debt at 36.6% of GDP together with a population of over 200 million, majority of who will try everything possible to escape to other countries where they believe that things can never be this bad.
PRODUCTIVITY
Nigeria’s national productivity growth rate has been low due to what observers linked to infrastructure deficit, unemployment and youth challenges, constant strike actions, brain drain, corruption, insecurity, poor workers’ attitude to work. Up to 80 percent of workers are said to be employed in sectors with low levels of productivity—agriculture and non-tradable services, which means that the kind of jobs needed to generate income growth and lift many Nigerians out of poverty are not available in large numbers.
A major problem facing the economy is the neglect of the manufacturing sector, with the country not producing enough, for both local consumption and export, with statistic showing that non-oil exports as a share of non-oil GDP averaged 1.3 percent while manufactured goods as a share of total exports remained low at 5.2 percent in 2021.
The Tinubu administration will be expected to develop an economic agenda with a practical strategy on how to structurally transform the economy, moving labor and economic resources from low productivity sectors to high productivity sectors.
To implement policies that will deliver an inclusive and competitive economy, first, it may have to rattle feathers in getting professionals to head all the strategic government agencies which are currently headed by mediocrities. It will definitely create bad blood among those that have seen such jobs as their birthrights, but the assurance of a greater opportunity in an expanded economy that will profit all should assuage any aggrieved interest with entitlement mindset. If the economy is productive and people are earning healthy wages in the private sector, the rush for government jobs and appointments will definitely drop. But under no disguise must any of the strategic government agencies be manned by unqualified persons again.
STARTUPS AND JOBS
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that unemployment and underemployment rates increased to an all-time high of 56.1 percent in 2020, pushing 133 million Nigerians into multidimensional poverty with economic growth not inclusive as it faced key challenges of lower productivity, weak expansion of sectors with high employment elasticity.
Getting the youths to work must be an immediate task for the new government and will be driven by fixing productivity through combinations of policies that cut across some strategic sectors of the economy. With a population of over 200 million, it’s obvious that a weak manufacturing base can only yield foreign exchange shortages, limited number of jobs created to accommodate workforce entrants, and an import bill that can hardly be met by export earnings.
Starting with national registrations of all unemployed youths across the country through dedicated local government centers, the policies that will get them engaged should explore opportunities in strategic sectors such as blue economy, energy , digital economy, mining, sport, agriculture and tourism, and get them to seamlessly access the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund approved by the outgoing government to support entrepreneurship for the over 68 million Nigerian youths between ages 18 and 35. This will instantly have impact on getting the youth to start doing business. The new entrepreneurs will need trainings, mentorship to grow and this can be provided by the well established ones including the multinationals which must be mandated to deliberately accommodate them for an agreed period, even if it will be at the expense of subsidy and tax incentives from government.
Many startups that need to be encouraged by the coming government are currently springing up in Nigeria, developing technology to fix identified problems in payment systems, insurance, agribusiness, e-commerce among others. The beauty of their emergence is that their concepts are globally acceptable, making them eligible to expand to other countries while attracting foreign exchange and creating new jobs.
Very laudable is the latest $600 million Investment in Digital and Creative Enterprises (i-DICE) Programme with funding from the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), the Agence Française de Développement and FG through the Bank of Industry to support young Nigerians ranging from ages 15-35 who are entrepreneurs at the early stages in creative, innovative and technology-enabled ventures.
I attended a forum sometime when an expert said that if the government can provide a grant of just $100,000 each for 100 youths, they will be capable of solving the nation’s economic problems in the medium and long term.
The incoming government should explore similar initiatives to raise funds to encourage more startups that will be building solutions to solve identified problems that are still numerous in Nigeria because it’s still an underdeveloped economy.
OIL AND GAS
Even though oil and gas is going out of fashion globally with migration to clean energy, Nigeria will still need all it can get in the short and medium term from oil to industrialise its economy.
The President-elect will need the right professionals to run the oil industry. Specifically, there will be a need for a total overhaul of the system. The new NNPC Limited should be made to advertise the positions of its CEO and other top directors to attract the right professionals from all over the world. If a small Nigerian independent energy firm, Seplat Energy Plc with assets which cannot be up to 1% of NNPC can be so profitable to the extent of declaring $951.8 million revenues for 2022, there is no reason why the national oil company which has always been declaring losses should not be making over $100 billion in a year.
It is also very important that the government must do everything possible to provide incentives and attract investors for the realization of the Trans Atlantic gas project that will take Nigerian gas through North Africa to market in Europe.
There will also be a need to remove fuel subsidy at the early stage of the administration as the commodity is no more available at the subsidized price, couple with the associated scarcity, but government must deliberately develop a scheme to subsidise transportation cost for the indigent people that will be mostly hit by economic hardship. A specialized e-card can be issued for them to access subsidized transportation services for a period of time.
While ensuring effective management of the oil and gas assets for the nation to receive commensurate returns, the oil industry must be made to adopt the right energy transition strategy so that the nation will not miss the opportunity to be a leader in clean energy without becoming the dumping ground for foreign technologies in the long term.
In extension, the mining sector must receive the necessary attention for it to live up to its potential. Law must be reviewed to end illegal mining which has been the bane of the sector.
AGRICULTURE
It was not until the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia that it dawned on many that the country of only 43.79 million is the leading food basket of the world. It accounts for 10% of the world wheat market, 15% of the corn market, and 13% of the barley market. With more than 50% of world trade, it is also the main player on the sunflower oil market.
Nigeria with a total of 79 million hectares of agricultural land and only 44% being cultivated should naturally be the food basket of Africa. But not only that it’s failing to fulfill this purpose, it’s contending with an annual food import of $20 billion.
There are some exportable agricultural products that keep on having growing global demands which Nigeria has the right climate to produce to quickly bridge its foreign exchange gap in few years.
A list of items with high global demand that Nigeria can exponentially raise its cultivation and export includes; ginger, cocoa butter, rubber, palm kernel oil, textiles and garments, gallstone, sesame seed, garlic, yam tubers, charcoal, cotton, cassava floor, cashew nuts, honey among other.
With over $40 billion earnings from crude oil but mere $10 billion from non-crude in 2021, it’s interesting to note that Nigeria can be positioned to capture a major slice the global sesame oil market which is anticipated to expand to $ 10.7 billion over the 2021-2031 period; cassava starch is projected to reach $66.84 billion by 2026; cashew is estimated to reach $10.5 billion by 2031; ginger is projected to reach $7.53 billion by 2028.
The Tinubu government can return to agriculture and make it the number one foreign exchange earner for the country by attracting investments and partnering the state governments based on the agricultural products they are the best at. The farm settlements that the government will promote should be mechanized, modernized with all amenities in the cities such as sporting and recreation centers with cable TV among others to attract youths and help solve unemployment problem.
*Segun Adeleye is the President/CEO, World Stage Limited; Creator, OELA Music; Author of ‘So Long Too Long Nigeria’ and Founder/Chairman, Segun Adeleye Foundation for Good Leadership in Africa (SAFFGLIA).
By Andrew Ekejiuba
In one of the famous quotes of Greek mathematician and inventor, Archimedes, regarding the Law of the Lever, he said, “Give me but one firm spot on which to stand and I will move the earth.”
According to history, every generation of humanity has always struggled to invent or re-invent something beneficial to society thereby leaving a legacy behind for posterity to remember them. Be it in business, technology, sports and education to mention but a few, the story remains the same. It was this same vision to accomplish something for Nigerians that also got GTI Asset Management and Trust Limited (GTI) to commence a tedious journey to restructure and reposition our Nigeria Premier Football League.
As noted earlier in this serial, GTI needed to salvage an almost hopeless situation in the history of Nigerian football thereby creating that spot in history according to Archimedes in which the investment banking firm stood to move our beautiful game to the next level.
To kick-start the process, an epoch-making event was held on March 22, 2022, when GTI officially announced its magnificent entry into Nigeria’s football ecosystem following its successful launch of The Nigeria Football Fund (TNFF).
However, immediately after the launch, the entire financial and sports management experts of GTI Group never looked back in ensuring that the huge dream they have for our elite football comes to fruition. From their findings, it was clear to GTI that there were fundamental issues lacking in Nigeria’s elite league prior to their engagement as strategic partners to the NPFL. Notable among them were the issues of sustainable liquidity and reliable transparent structure that can stand the test of time. Other discoveries were poor playing infrastructure; lack of visibility of the League matches and low officiating integrity.
TNFF was aimed at building a “Football Economy” for the transformation of the sports sector. Aside from the aforementioned, the Fund promotes an investment culture among sports enthusiasts and investing public with an opportunity for them to earn returns from their investment. The multiplier impact will drive a cycle of growth (value-chain effects) across several other sectors like Tourism, Broadcasting, Technology, Gaming, Media, Hospitality, Transportation and Merchandising to mention but a few. The end result of these surely will lead to increased economic activities, increase in employment opportunities, rise in disposable income and significant contribution to GDP.
With less than two years of the existence of TNFF, a common question, “Wouldn’t you rather invest in TNFF” has kept reverberating in the minds of interested investors.
Today, the NPFL is currently enjoying relative peace because of the way and manner financial issues are transparently handled in the administration of the league.
On the issue of visibility of the elite league, GTI as burden bearer secured the services of Propel Sports Africa at the end of the 2022/2023 season to ensure our matches are viewed on mobile devices locally and globally on the OTT platform. This singular action attracted more sponsors to the NPFL as they saw the elite league as a veritable product that has the capacity to add value to their products and services. Then, a few weeks into the 2023/2024 season, telecommunication giants MTN and StarTimes followed suit to enhance the broadcast of league matches.
In terms of officiating the NPFL matches, one can comfortably say that there is a remarkable improvement in this regard.
In summary, the management of the NPFL has improved tremendously, thanks to the effort of GTI as strategic partners. Therefore, the journey of taking the league to greater heights is being pursued vigorously as football stakeholders and analysts in the country anticipate that in the next few years, NPFL will become the best-organized league in Africa and also rank among the most glamorous leagues in the world.
The effect of the partnership and support of the Honourable Gbenga Elegbeleye-led NPFL Board has shown a positive trajectory in the latest ranking of NPFL by the International Federation of Football History & Statistics (IFFHS) for 2023. The position of NPFL has improved from 77th to 73rd in the world ranking and has also moved from 10th to 7th in the African ranking. It is expected that the ranking will continue to improve yearly in view of the various efforts made to transform the league.
The time is now for corporate Nigeria to secure sponsorship deals with the NPFL and for the public to invest in TNFF and earn alpha returns on their investment. This is an opportunity to participate in the shared dream to transform our football ecosystem for mutual benefits.
Ekejiuba, wrote from Lagos Island
By Bayo Onanuga
The Nigerian economy is looking good in some sectors.
This is not a harebrained assessment, despite the high inflation and the unstable exchange rate of the Naira. Those who doubt this don’t need to look far, for a reality check.
The economic boom is happening at the Nigerian Exchange, where stockholders are not only recording unprecedented capital gains, but are poised to earn equally unprecedented dividends on their investments. The prosperity promised by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu during the campaign is becoming a reality, for millions of Nigerian investors, among whom will be the 6.6 million Nigerian shareholders of MTN, the biggest telco in the country.
The upswing in the market began 30 May 2023, the second day Tinubu was sworn into office. What triggered the big rally in the market was the announcement by the new President of the end of the fraudulent petrol subsidy regime. The market took notice of this bold measure, along with the President’s promise to harmonise the exchange rate. Although the latter remains ‘work-in-progress’, it has been a bullish run in the market since then.
The All Share Index which tracks the general market movement of all listed equities on the Nigerian exchange was 55,738.35 on 30 May 2023, a day after Tinubu was sworn in. In July it rose to 65,091. By 24 December, it reached 73,768, which as Bloomberg reported on 1 November, when the ASI first crossed the 70,000 mark, was the highest on record.
As at the close of trading on Friday 19 January, the index leapfrogged to 94,538.12, more than 69 percent growth, since last May, creating yet another huge record.
Market capitalisation also grew exponentially from N30.3 trillion recorded at end of May 2023 to N51.7 trillion on 19 January 2024. This means investors have gained more than N20 trillion since Tinubu came into office.
The record gains have made the Nigerian Stock Market the best in the world, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East and Africa Index.
Not surprising, investors are bringing more and more money to the market. Last Friday alone, 844.4 million units of stocks valued at N15 billion were traded in 15,255 deals.
The phenomenal growth of the market was fuelled by the record profits announced by many Nigerian banks and some of the manufacturers, such as Dangote Cement, Bua Cement, Lafarge Africa, formerly known as WAPCO.
The banks were the first to rally the market into a frenzy, beginning from their second quarter reports, when they reported huge gains from their forex dealings. Zenith announced earnings per share in H1 at N9.29 from N3.55 in the same period of 2022. UBA’s earnings per share stood at N10.95 in H1 2023 from N1.98 per share in the same period of 2022.
The positive Q3 reports also threw the market into more frenzy as banks announced further increases in profits. Investors, in response lapped up the shares of the banks, sending the prices higher.
UBA Plc which at the beginning of 2023 was trading at about N8 has seen the biggest jump in its stock price. By last Friday, it traded for N32. Access Bank which started the year at about N11-N12, has soared to N29. Zenith and GTCO are now trading in the N40s, from about N24-25 in January 2023. First Bank , FCMB, Fidelity, Sterling, Wema, Stanbic have all experienced the upswing in prices.
Dangote Cement, Bua Cement and Bua Foods, Flour Mills of Nigeria, Okomu Oil, Presco, Transcorp, NAHCO and WAPCO have similarly experienced some boom. Dangote on Friday, sold for N538, adding N48.9 to its weight, from its previous close of N489.9. WAPCO, otherwise known as Lafarge Africa traded at N31 in December. On 19 January, it traded for N47.
The rise in stock prices is being propelled by investors who are taking positions, according to EDC Securities Research, ‘in fundamentally driven stocks as we approach the earnings season”. The expectations and sentiments out there among the investors are that some dividend windfall is on the way.
The prosperity promised by the Tinubu administration may not be felt by all our 200 million people simultaneously. But it will not be far away as the government confronts the low inflow of forex into the economy, the fundamental reason exchange rate has gone bonkers and prices of imported and locally produced goods have increased.
President Tinubu and his cabinet expressed concern about the rising costs of pharmaceutical products at the last Federal Executive Council meeting. His government is poised to implement a series of measures to assist local drug manufacturers so that they lower the costs.
To address the low forex inflow, Nigeria is discussing as much as $1.5 billion of World Bank funding support for the budget, Finance Minister Wale Edun said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The country is also looking forward to the fulfilment of the pledge by Saudi Arabia to invest billions of dollars in our economy.
The NNPC Limited in the coming weeks will continue to be under pressure to bring in more dollars into the country’s foreign reserve to boost dollar availability and overturn bleak predictions for the national currency in 2024.
*Onanuga is the special adviser Information and Strategy to President Bola Tinubu.
A tribute by Yemi Adeoye
Leaders are known in times of distress and unease, and this is one gentleman who distinguished himself excellently at such times.
I recall vividly the days of herdsmen attack accros the forests and villages of the southwest, Gen. Buhari was in charge, and as usual, unbothered.
So while many leaders in the APC refrained from commenting publicly on the very disturbing development for fear of the Presidency due to the President’s “Body language” Aketi rose to the occasion and spoke his mind freely as if he weren’t a member of the ruling party, and he was invisible.
He was a key figure in the formation of Amotekun to protect the southwest from.the marauding herdsmen, and when some naysayers argued that the regional vigilante force is not backed by law, Aketi as he’s fondly called rallied his state lawmakers to swiftly give the force a legal backing.
His experience as a legal practitioner also helped shaped the laws at the time. He spoke his mind freely at all times like an activist and not as a governor.
I came to know of him mainly when he became the NBA president, and got to meet him when i visited Akure to have a session with him for the Energie Platform show, as the leader of an oil producing state. The state was hosting the then VP, Prof Osinbajo and my dear brother Dapo Olumurphy Aruwajoye had extended an invite to my team and I for the session with Aketi.
We ended up not being able to have that session with him, so I decided to study whatever i could of the man Aketi, largely because of his positive demeanor and very playful nature. He sang, danced, hailed people freely and dressed casually to a formal event. I liked that almost Oshiomole dress-feel, but Aketi gat swag, plus a good smile.
There was no way I was gonn miss those. I got close enough to say hello, and he responded so warmly my interest in him grew. The Vice President was warm too, and kindly apologized for his inability to sit with us. It was sad, but their kindness was encouraging. Honestly ehn, this one pain me like he’s my relative walai.
Aketi was full of life, and a very bubbly guy, and you can’t but just love the guy. He is a people person, and you can easily notice that about him. He is not a regimented or scripted kinda guy, and easily relates, not as a governor, but as the boy next door. I think it’s his nature.
Due to his outspoken and fearless nature, he was unanimously picked as the Chairman Southern Governors Forum at a time when that body was beyond necessary, and that seat reserved only for the bold!
During the Presidential campaign when Asiwaju Tinubu visited ondo state at a time when his campaign wasn’t firmly consolidated, and even the Vice President was in the race, Aketi fearlessly described Tinubu as “Our own Capo di Tuti”
So it wasn’t a surprise when President Tinubu in his condolence message to the people and state of Ondo, described the late Governor as “My Fearless Brother” because no other word describes the late Governor Akeredolu better.
His last days and the controversies that ensued while he was incapacitated was painful to watch. But that wasn’t the man I saw and listened to for years. I strongly believe the controversies wouldn’t have been, if Aketi was in charge and control of himself.
I pray the state heal, and the new Governor focuses on uniting the state.and building on Aketi’s legacy. He picked him to be his Deputy. No matter what, that alone is telling.
Finally, find rest your excellency.
Adeoye wrote from the USA.
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