Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to struggle with inadequate domestic feedstock supply.

According to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the country shipped out 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February. In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day with exports at 1.01 mbpd. In February, production fell to 1.31 mbpd while exports averaged 0.86 mbpd.

Total crude production for the two months stood at 81.94 million barrels, meaning that 26.55 million barrels were left behind for local refineries in the first two months of 2026.

The strong export figures come at a time when the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery is battling an acute shortage of local crude. The refinery has repeatedly complained of receiving far below its required volumes from domestic sources, forcing it to import crude from international markets.

This situation persists despite Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest crude oil producer. Industry sources note that a significant portion of produced crude continues to be exported while the country’s flagship refinery grapples with supply constraints under the naira-for-crude arrangement.

Before the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recently increased crude supply to the Dangote refinery from five cargoes to 10 cargoes, The PUNCH reports that the ambitious deal between the Dangote refinery and the NNPC faced challenges, as the refinery experienced a crude oil supply shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026.

Data obtained from an impeccable senior management source within the refinery indicated that the facility, which requires approximately 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly to operate at full capacity, received significantly lower volumes during the period.

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The official argued that, under the Petroleum Industries Act, the export of crude before meeting local demand was clearly prohibited, stressing that the $20bn Lekki-based plant had been grappling with inadequate crude volumes, while the country, through NNPC, continued to export some of its oil.

A breakdown of the figures shows that the refinery is supposed to get about 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly, but it got 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million barrels in November, 4.30 million barrels in December, 5.65 million barrels in January, and 4.66 million barrels in February. For March, only 3.6 million barrels were delivered between the 1st and 15th.

In total, crude supplied within the five-and-a-half-month period stood at 29.21 million barrels, compared to an estimated 108.74 million barrels required for the same duration. This translates to a supply performance of about 26.9 per cent, indicating that more than three-quarters of the refinery’s crude needs were not met.

Earlier, the Dangote refinery had repeatedly lamented that it was not getting enough crude locally for its operations.

As the Iran-US war continues to disrupt global oil supply, the Dangote refinery effected multiple fuel price increases, raising the petrol pump price above N1,300 per litre before it was later reduced to the current N1,250 per litre.

Defending these price hikes, the Dangote refinery said in a statement that local crude producers were refusing to supply feedstock to its facility, forcing it to rely more on imported crude.

According to the company, the refinery received just five cargoes every month from the national oil company instead of 13 cargoes, adding that the cargoes were paid for at international market prices.

“While we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria.

“The high crude cost is compounded by the fact that Nigeria’s upstream producers have failed to supply crude oil to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing us to source a substantial portion through international traders who charge an additional premium,” it stated.

However, reliable sources at the NNPC, who pleaded anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, confirmed to our correspondent that the company was leveraging its global crude trading network to source third-party crude for the 650,000-barrel Lekki refinery.

According to the source, the NNPC would sell the crude to the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates, ruling out calls by some stakeholders that the Federal Government should sell feedstock to local refineries at rates designed locally to shield Nigeria from the global price rise.

“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates.

“As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Within the framework of our existing agreements, we continue to facilitate crude supply to the refinery in the face of temporary availability constraints,” he explained.

Our correspondent gathered from other sources within the national oil company that there was truly a shortfall because some volume of NNPC’s daily crude output had been front-sold in the past.

“Indeed, there’s a shortfall, but it wasn’t deliberate. You know that some volumes have been front-sold in the past. That is causing some form of distortion, but that doesn’t mean the NNPC will not meet up. The company is looking at other alternative sources,” it was said.

Recently, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, revealed in a report by Bloomberg that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned oil firm in March, compared to an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.

Dangote said the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the crude supply arrangement between the refinery and the NNPC. However, this is still below the over 19 million barrels required by the refinery monthly.

The Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, called for increased crude supply to local refineries.

Idoko declared that refiners would intensify demand for more crude with the reported improvement in national production. The CORAN spokesman explained that consistent crude supply would improve refinery operations and profitability, noting that modular refineries would not make profits unless they get enough feedstock locally.

“If we get crude, of course, we will make gains; we have our cash flow. If we get regular products like we ought to do, yes, we would make gains. But without products, we are not making gains. If the oil producers give us feedstock, we will make gains. That’s how good the refining business is,” he said.

The Punch