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OPEC+ Hikes Oil Production Quotas, Silent on UAE Pull-out

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Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries increased their oil production quota on Sunday in an expected move aimed at demonstrating continuity at the cartel after the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates.

The seven major producers will add 188,000 barrels per day to their total production quota for June amid the price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war, as part of “their collective commitment to support oil market stability”, according to a statement published by OPEC+.

The statement, following an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, made no mention of the United Arab Emirates, which quit the body on Friday, three days after announcing its withdrawal.

Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that the silence on the UAE’s departure was a sign of tense relations.

Oil market analysts had widely expected the increase of 188,000 barrels, similar to the 206,000-barrel daily increases OPEC+ announced in both March and April when the portion allotted to the UAE was subtracted.

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“By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it’s acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” Leon said.

Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Remains
But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit.
Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28.

Leon, the Rystad Energy analyst, told AFP on Sunday that the cartel was looking to send “a two-layer message” that the UAE’s exit would not disrupt how OPEC+ operates and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite massive disruption to oil trade due to the war.

“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,” Leon told AFP. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.”

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter’s production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas.

“Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint,” said Priya Walia, another analyst at Rystad Energy, ahead of Sunday’s meeting.

Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas.

Russia, the group’s second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones hit oil industry facilities.

‘A Big Deal’
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, described the UAE’s exist as “a big deal” for OPEC.

Previous withdrawals from the group by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 were less significant by comparison, Bakr told a video conference on the UAE withdrawal.

The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years, and state-owned oil company ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027 — far above the country’s last quota of around 3.5 million barrels.

ADNOC also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company is “accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy”.

There is also the risk for OPEC+ that other countries will leave such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have faced repeated accusations of surpassing their quotas.

AFP

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Dangote Picks Lamu, Kenya for East Africa Mega-refinery — Report

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Dangote Tackle forex shortage with sugar

A 700,000-bpd East African oil refinery proposed by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, will be built in Kenya, a senior company official said Tuesday, putting a lid on speculation over the location of the mega-project.

The massive refinery, similar to Dangote’s sprawling complex in Nigeria, will be based in Lamu, an island off the coast of Kenya, Edwin Devakumar, the vice president in charge of oil and gas at Dangote Industries Limited, told AFP.

It will take around 30 months to build the facility in east Africa’s largest economy.

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Initially, Tanzania was also one of the locations considered for the refinery.

Nigerian billionaire Dangote was in Tanzania late last month where he held talks with President Samia Suluhu Hassan, where he explained “the commercial and technical considerations behind the Group’s decision to locate its planned East African refinery in Lamu”, according to a statement from his office.

He also invited Tanzania to participate in the Lamu investment.

The Nigerian industrialist had previously said he was leaning toward the Kenyan city of Mombasa, before making the Lamu announcement.

Dangote, whose 650,000-bpd refinery in Nigeria came online in 2024, is the largest on the continent and plans to more than double its capacity to 1.4 million bpd — which would make it the largest refinery globally — by 2028.

AFP

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NMDPRA Assures on Transparency on Transformation of Nigeria’s Oil Sector

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Subsidy Removal: NMDPRA Assures Smooth Fuel Supply

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has pledged to run the sector with stricter standards of transparency, equity, and predictability as the country navigates three major industry shifts in five years.

Authority Chief Executive Mallam Rabiu A. Umar gave the assurance on the opening day of NOGEnergyWeek 2026 at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre, noting that regulatory consistency is now critical to investor confidence and national energy security.

Umar said, “We are resolved to superintend the industry with higher standards of transparency, equity, accountability, consistency and predictability,” Umar said during the panel “Scaling Downstream Capacity – Optimising Africa’s Oil Value.”

ALSO READ: EFCC Files Fraud Charges Against Ex-MDs of Warri, PH Refineries

He cited three seismic changes reshaping Nigeria’s oil and gas landscape since 2021: petroleum products price deregulation, the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, and Nigeria’s pivot from an import-dependent market to a net exporter following the operationalization of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Company Limited (DPRP).

Building buffers amid global volatility: Umar noted that recent geopolitical shocks, including the Middle East war and the temporary closure of the Hormuz energy waterway, have exposed the risks of supply volatility.

In response, he said the Authority is placing a stronger focus on building Nigeria’s national strategic petroleum reserves to serve as a supply buffer during future crises.

“Every effort has to be made to ensure our national energy security,” he added.

Gas as the bridge to transition: A key part of that security plan, Umar said, is deepening domestic gas utilization through the soon-to-be-commissioned AKK gas pipeline. The project is designed to move gas from Nigeria’s southern production hubs to the north.

The pipeline, he said, will support Nigeria’s energy transition to cleaner fuels and help boost power generation to meet rising national demand.

“Gas is central to both our energy security and our transition agenda,” Umar stated.

Continental push for collaboration: The opening ceremony drew both Ministers of Petroleum, senior government officials, industry regulators, chief executives, investors, development partners and energy stakeholders from across Africa.

Their presence, organizers said, reaffirmed the continent’s commitment to collaboration and to driving sustainable growth across the energy value chain.

The NOG Energy Week 2026 runs this week in Abuja, with policy, investment and infrastructure expected to dominate discussions as Africa positions gas as its transition fuel.

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Oando Posts N204.8bn PAT

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Africa’s leading indigenous energy solutions provider, listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited and Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Oando Plc, has announced its audited results for the financial year ended 31 December 2025.

According to the results, it delivered a 32 percent increase with an average daily production to 32,482 barrels of oil equivalent per day and a Profit After Tax (PAT) of N204.8bn.

In a regulatory filing on Monday, the company said that in the 2025 financial year, marked a transition year for the group, with the first full-year contribution from the Nigerian Agip Oil Company Joint Venture assets and a shift from acquisition-led growth to operational execution and balance sheet optimisation.

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On the results, the Group Chief Executive, Oando Plc, Wale Tinubu, said, “FY 2025 marked our first full year of operational execution following the acquisition of the NAOC Joint Venture assets and represents an important milestone in Oando’s evolution. Having successfully completed the integration phase, our focus shifted to operatorship, operational excellence, and value realisation across the enlarged portfolio.

“During the year, we strengthened asset integrity, enhanced security across our operating areas, and improved uptime, resulting in a 32 per cent year-on-year increase in production to 32,482 boepd net to Oando.

“This performance was driven by stronger output across crude oil, gas, and NGLs, improved operational reliability, and the successful stabilisation of our expanded asset base.”

Supporting this performance, the group generated N258.3bn in cash from operations and closed the year with N422.9bn in cash and cash equivalents, up 172 per cent from 2024, while strengthening financial flexibility through the upsizing of its $375m Reserve-Based Lending facility.

Operationally, crude trading volumes increased 24 per cent to 25.7m barrels, crude oil production rose 36 per cent, gas production increased 24 per cent, and Natural Gas Liquids production surged 715 per cent following upgrades to gas processing infrastructure.

The company also successfully completed and brought onstream the Obiafu-44 gas-condensate well, its first operated development well following the assumption of operatorship, while maintaining zero fatalities, zero Lost-Time Injuries, and a Total Recordable Incident Rate of 0.05.

The group’s upstream performance was driven by improved facility uptime, enhanced flow assurance, the restoration of previously shut-in wells, and targeted infrastructure upgrades across its operated assets. In addition to higher crude oil and gas production, the successful revamp of the NGL processing plant increased recovery efficiency and drove a 715 per cent increase in NGL production. The completion and start-up of the Obiafu-44 gas-condensate well further demonstrated Oando’s ability to safely execute complex development programmes following the assumption of operatorship.

The trading division increased crude trading volumes by 24 per cent to 25.7m barrels despite changing domestic market dynamics. The business continued to optimise its portfolio by reducing exposure to premium motor spirit imports and increasing participation in higher-margin crude and gas trading opportunities, strengthening commercial resilience while enhancing integration with the group’s upstream operations.

Oando’s FY2025 performance comes at a defining moment for Nigeria’s indigenous upstream sector, as local energy companies continue to demonstrate their ability to successfully acquire, integrate, and optimise assets divested by international oil companies.

In FY2025, Seplat Energy reported revenue of $2.726bn (N4.135tn) and average production of 131,506 boepd, reflecting the first full-year contribution from its Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited acquisition, while Aradel Holdings grew revenue 20 per cent to N699.4bn, supported by its increased interest in ND Western and Renaissance Africa Energy Company.

Together with Oando’s strong FY2025 performance following the first full-year contribution from the NAOC JV assets, these results underscore a new era for Nigeria’s energy industry, one in which indigenous operators are not only acquiring world-class assets but successfully creating long-term value from them.

Speaking on the company’s outlook, Tinubu added, “With operational control firmly embedded, a strong reserves base, and improving financial flexibility, we are well-positioned to build on the momentum achieved in 2025 and enter 2026 from a position of strength. Our focus remains on executing our development programme, growing production, strengthening cash generation, prudent capital allocation, and delivering sustainable long-term value for our shareholders.”

Oando expects production to increase to between 40,000 and 50,000 boepd in 2026, supported by a focused development programme across OMLs 60–63, continued production optimisation, and planned capital expenditure of $90m to $100m.

The trading division is expected to increase crude trading volumes to between 30m and 35m barrels while the company advances its clean energy initiatives, including the deployment of additional electric buses and the expansion of its recycling and gas-to-power projects.

This outlook aligns with broader industry trends. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects continued resilience in global investment across natural gas and upstream energy infrastructure as countries prioritise energy security and diversify supply.

Backed by an expanded upstream portfolio, strengthened financial flexibility, and a disciplined execution strategy, Oando remains well positioned to accelerate growth, unlock greater value across its integrated energy business, and advance its ambition of building Africa’s leading integrated energy company.

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