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Q3 2025: Nigeria Oil Revenue Target, Spending Short by 62%, 41.57% Respectively

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Nigeria’s oil revenue performance deteriorated sharply in the third quarter of 2025 and missed budget expectations by a wide margin of 62 percent.

This reinforced concerns over the country’s fragile fiscal position, even as modest gains were recorded in actual receipts.

In the same vein, Nigeria’s total government expenditure fell significantly below projections in the third quarter of 2025, coming in at N8.03 trillion, 41.57 percent short of the prorated quarterly budget estimate of N13.75 trillion.

Fresh data from the Budget Office of the Federation showed that gross oil revenue for the quarter stood at N4.87 trillion, far below the prorated quarterly projection of N12.76 trillion. This represents a shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8%, underscoring the scale of the gap between projections and reality.

The development comes at a time when the federal government is contending with mounting debt service obligations, persistent fiscal deficits, and an urgent need to strengthen revenue mobilisation, particularly from non-oil sources through ongoing tax reforms and improved collection systems.

Under the 2025 fiscal framework, the government projected gross federally collectible revenue of N78.08 trillion, with oil expected to account for N51.05 trillion, representing 65.38% of total revenue.

On a prorated basis, quarterly revenue was estimated at about N19.52 trillion, highlighting the extent to which oil underperformance is weighing on overall fiscal outcomes.

Despite the sharp shortfall, oil revenue showed slight improvement compared to previous periods. The N4.87 trillion recorded in Q3 was higher than the N4.77 trillion posted in Q2 2025 and N4.62 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024.

According to the Budget Office, this translates to a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5.41% year-on-year growth, an indication of marginal recovery in oil receipts, albeit from a weak base and still far below expectations.

A detailed breakdown of oil revenue components revealed that most major streams fell significantly short of their targets.

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Crude oil and gas sales generated N622.99 billion during the quarter, compared to a projected N1.18 trillion, leaving a deficit of N555.2 billion or 47.12%. Petroleum Profit Tax and gas taxes performed even worse, yielding N1.97 trillion against a target of N7.85 trillion, a massive shortfall of N5.87 trillion, or 74.82%.

Similarly, oil and gas royalties came in at N2.01 trillion, missing the quarterly estimate of N3.43 trillion by N1.42 trillion. Incidental oil revenue, which includes royalty recoveries and marginal field licence earnings, also underperformed sharply, generating just N37 billion compared to a projected N295.88 billion.

In contrast, a handful of revenue lines outperformed expectations, offering limited relief. Concessional rentals rose significantly above projections, generating N7.89 billion against a budgeted N1.03 billion, an overperformance of 667.5%. Miscellaneous oil revenues, including pipeline fees, also exceeded estimates at N9.65 billion versus the projected N5.86 billion.

Additionally, gas flared penalties and exchange gains contributed N181.61 billion and N28.65 billion respectively, despite not being captured in the original budget projections.

The persistent underperformance highlights the structural vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s fiscal framework, which remains heavily dependent on oil revenues despite sustained policy efforts to diversify income sources. While the government has intensified non-oil revenue mobilisation through tax reforms, digitised collection platforms and broader fiscal restructuring, oil receipts continue to play a central role in financing public expenditure, servicing debt and sustaining budget implementation.

Production shortfalls have further compounded the problem. The 2025 budget was anchored on a crude oil production benchmark of 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), but actual output has consistently trailed this assumption.

Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), indicate that total crude oil and condensate production between January and September 2025 stood at 454.28 million barrels. This translates to an average daily production of 1.66 mbpd, well below the budget benchmark.

Nigeria has also struggled to meet its production quotas under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for several months, reflecting ongoing challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment and operational inefficiencies in the upstream sector.

The widening gap between projected and actual oil revenue underscores the risks of continued reliance on hydrocarbons in an increasingly volatile global energy market. It also raises fresh concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions, especially as borrowing continues to rise to plug revenue shortfalls.

With oil still accounting for the bulk of government earnings, analysts warn that without significant improvements in production levels and a more aggressive push toward revenue diversification, Nigeria’s fiscal stability will remain exposed to recurring shocks.

Despite the shortfall against the expenditure target, spending in the period was N0.39 trillion, or 4.86 per cent, higher than the N7.64 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

The report also showed that the Federal Government posted a fiscal deficit of N0.33 trillion during the quarter under review. It noted that non-debt recurrent expenditure stood at N2.66 trillion, reflecting a decline of N739.01 billion, or 21.75 percent, below the quarterly estimate of N3.40 trillion. However, this figure was still 31.20 percent higher than the N1.83 trillion recorded in Q3 2024.

In addition, statutory transfers amounted to N360.32 billion within the period. Overall, the fiscal deficit translated to a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 2.29 percent, which remains within the statutory 3 percent threshold as well as the ECOWAS convergence benchmark, indicating compliance despite elevated spending pressures and persistent implementation gaps across key budget components.

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Safe Driving: Dangote Transport Unveils Novel Real-Time Driver Monitoring Control Room

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Dangote Transport has taken another major step towards improving road safety with the launch of a state-of-the-art Driver Monitoring Control Room (DMCR) that allows drivers operating its trucks to be monitored in real time while on transit across Nigeria.

The innovative facility, located at the Dangote Transport operational base in Ibese, Ogun State, highlighted the company’s commitment to leveraging technology and best practices to reduce road accidents and improve drivers’ behaviour.

The Head of Operations, Dangote Transport, Ibese, Mr. David Idiege, described the DMCR as one of the latest additions to the company’s comprehensive safety architecture.

According to him, the facility enables transport control personnel to observe drivers while they are on the road, monitor compliance with safety standards and promptly intervene whenever risky behaviour is detected.

“We are constantly looking for innovative ways to strengthen safety across our transport operations. The Driver Monitoring Control Room represents another significant milestone in our efforts to ensure that all journeys are conducted safely and responsibly,” Idiege said.

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He explained that the initiative forms part of a broader strategy aimed at reducing accidents, enhancing operational efficiency and safeguarding both the drivers and other road users.

“Safety remains our highest priority. We recognize the responsibility that comes with operating a large fleet of vehicles across the country. That is why we continue to invest heavily in technology, systems and training that help us maintain the highest safety standards,” he stated.

Idiege disclosed that the company has, over the years, implemented several safety measures designed to improve driver performance and minimize risks on the road.

He listed these initiatives to include speed limiters, vehicle immobilizers, speed boosters control systems, facial recognition devices, journey management protocols, mandatory drug and alcohol testing, compulsory rest periods for drivers, periodic recertification as well as regular training and retraining programmes.

“Our approach is holistic. Technology alone is not enough. We combine technology with strict operational procedures, driver welfare programmes, competency assessments, recertification exercises and continuous capacity building to ensure that our drivers remain professional and safety-conscious at all times,” he added.

He further explained that compulsory rest policies help combat fatigue, one of the leading causes of road accidents globally.

“We do not encourage driver fatigue. Every driver is required to comply with our journey management procedures and mandatory rest schedules. We understand that alert and healthy drivers make safer decisions on the road,” he said.

Also speaking during the tour, the Head of Transport Control, Mr. Ifeanyi Ezeala, who conducted journalists around the control facility, explained that the on-board camera system installed across thousands of Dangote trucks was facilitated by technology partner Nova Tracks.

According to Ezeala, the camera system enables real-time visibility into driver conduct and provides transportation managers with critical information needed to proactively address safety concerns.

“The technology allows us to monitor driver activities while journeys are in progress. The cameras provide live feeds and alerts, helping us detect behaviours that could compromise safety and enabling us to take immediate corrective action,” Ezeala explained.

He noted that the monitoring solution is not intended to police drivers but rather to support them and ensure they operate under safer conditions.

“Our objective is preventive rather than punitive. We want to identify potential risks before they develop into incidents. By having visibility into operations in real time, we can contact drivers where necessary, provide guidance and support safer driving decisions,” he said.

Ezeala stated that the system has enhanced fleet management capabilities by providing valuable operational data that strengthens decision-making and supports the company’s overall safety objectives.

“The transportation industry is evolving rapidly, and technology now plays a critical role in fleet safety management. By integrating advanced monitoring systems into our operations, we are creating a safer environment for our drivers and for all road users,” he said.

He commended Nova Tracks for its role in deploying the technology and supporting the company’s vision for safer transportation operations.

The Driver Monitoring Control Room is the latest in a series of investments by Dangote Transport aimed at promoting safe driving, reducing accident risks and advancing operational excellence across its nationwide logistics network.

With thousands of trucks moving raw materials and finished products daily across the country, the company says it will continue to deploy innovative solutions that support safer journeys, improve driver performance and contribute to a safer road transport ecosystem in Nigeria.

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NNPC Ltd Expresses Concern for Dearth of Skills in Energy Sector

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Nigeria’s widening energy workforce and technical skills gap has left the country on the verge of losing control of its energy future unless the matter is addressed with the urgency it deserves.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) raised the concerns on Thursday at the Oil and Gas Trainers Association of Nigeria (OGTAN) HCD Conference and Expo in Warri, Delta State.

The Chief Human Resources Officer, NNPC Limited, Kazachiyang Nuhu, observed the convergence of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), the Decade of Gas, which raised participation by local operators and the global energy transition already created higher demand for technical talent that the industry was struggling to supply.

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In a presentation at the OGTAN conference, Nuhu maintained that the changing energy landscape, driven by policy, market shifts, technology and changing expectations of younger workers, had created a technical talent demand that Nigeria could not afford to ignore.

He said artificial intelligence, digitalisation and automation were compressing skill cycles, while capital was increasingly moving towards liquefied natural gas, cleaner molecules and low-carbon opportunities.

Nuhu warned that unless the workforce was urgently reskilled and repositioned, Nigeria could lose its ability to effectively participate in the emerging energy economy.

“Reskill, reposition or risk becoming a spectator in our own industry,” he told stakeholders at the conference.

He identified workforce and skills gaps, an ageing workforce and brain drain, commonly referred to as ‘japa’, among the major challenges confronting the industry.

He also identified a widening disconnect between academia and industry, particularly the gap between what was taught in educational institutions and what the industry required from employees from day one.

Other challenges highlighted included weak safety culture, spills and flaring; vandalism, crude theft, surveillance and metering gaps; supply of quality materials and equipment; ageing assets, reliability and project overruns; digital oilfield and environmental, social and governance skills; as well as refinery operations, product quality, LPG safety and trade finance.

Nuhu noted that the solution required a fundamental shift in how human capital development was approached across the industry, noting that training must become more closely linked to production, safety, reliability and cost, while programmes must be based on current field realities rather than generic manuals.

He called for training to be benchmarked against global standards and supported by emerging technologies such as simulators, digital twins, virtual and augmented reality and artificial intelligence. “Every naira spent on training must translate to a safer plant, a skilled employee, and a stronger balance sheet,” he added.

Nuhu disclosed that the NNPC Ltd would also change the basis on which it engaged training providers, stressing that trainers must understand the direction in which the industry was heading. “We will partner only with trainers who teach the industry we are becoming, not the one we are leaving behind,” he said.

He said the company was already developing its workforce through initial professional development, career pathways, industry exposure, leadership pipelines, mentorship and knowledge transfer.

According to him, the ultimate measure of Nigerian content should be whether Nigerians were acquiring the expertise required to lead major projects to international standards, saying, “Not how many Nigerians were hired, but how many world-class Nigerians led the project.”

Nuhu argued that true local content should be measured by expertise rather than percentages, with future industry needs spanning technical, digital, commercial and human capabilities.

He said this would include skills in renewable integration, gas-to-power, AI, predictive maintenance, energy economics, carbon markets, sustainable finance, adaptive leadership and systems thinking.

He challenged Nigeria to determine whether it would become a contributor or merely a consumer of the future energy economy. He called on industry players, trainers and academia to move from parallel efforts towards a unified capacity compact.

OGTAN President, Chris Osarunmewense, stressed that the association was seeking to sustain conversations around how Nigeria could develop a workforce capable of delivering on the promises of companies operating in the oil and gas industry.

Osarunmewense said human capital development was a continuous process that required the industry to recognise and nurture people’s potential.

“Human capital develops by progression. At OGTAN, therefore, we treasure the potential of people who have developed human capital in nature to effectively operate within the oil and gas industry,” the OGTAN boss said.

He added that the conference was designed to bring stakeholders together and discuss the ways to address the skill gaps in the industry. According to him, the decision to hold the 2026 conference in Warri, rather than Lagos or Abuja, was deliberate, given the city’s place in the history and development of Nigeria’s petroleum industry.

“For us, this choice was meaningful. Warri is not simply a venue; it is part of the history of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry,” he added.

Osarunmewense said the Niger Delta had for decades remained at the heart of Nigeria’s petroleum industry, with the region’s history of exploration, production, processing, services, technical manpower and community development deeply intertwined with the country’s broader energy economy.

The OGTAN president said the association wanted international participants to experience the Niger Delta not merely as a geographical location associated with petroleum production but as a region with talent, enterprise, technical expertise, institutions, communities and significant human capital potential.

He said the collaboration with the Petroleum Training Institute (PTI) further strengthened Warri’s suitability for the conference because of the institute’s role in technical and professional training in the petroleum sector.

Osarunmewense noted that the industry’s human capital challenges could not be resolved by any single stakeholder, stressing the need for collaboration across the value chain.

“The challenges before the industry are too complex for any single organisation to solve. The government alone cannot solve it. Regulators cannot solve it alone. Oil and gas companies cannot solve it alone. Training providers cannot solve it alone. Universities and technical institutions cannot do so alone either. We need collaboration across the value chain,” he emphasised.

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Court Orders Delta Oil Spill Clean Up

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#NigeriaDecides: INEC Official Killed, Corpers Injured In Delta

A Federal High Court sitting in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, has ordered Heritage Energy Operational Services Limited and the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) to commence the process of cleaning up an oil spill that has devastated Uzere Kingdom in the Isoko South Local Government Area of Delta State.

The order was contained in a ruling in Suit No. FHC/PH/CS/132/2026, filed by Eric Omare Chambers on behalf of the Ovie of Uzere Kingdom, Udogri Isaac I, who is the applicant representing the Uzere Traditional Council and the entire Uzere community.

In the ruling delivered on Thursday, Justice Adamu Mohammed emphasised the need “to protect the environment and ensure compliance with due process.”

While directing the defendants to “clean up the affected sites and take measures to protect the environment from further harm”, the judge also ordered that “all ongoing oil and gas operations by the defendants in the Uzere Kingdom should be halted pending the resolution of the motion on notice.”

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During the hearing, counsel for the plaintiff, N.O. Akporuvweku of E.K. Omare and Co. Chambers, emphasised that the court had previously directed the defendants to show cause regarding the environmental damage and that the necessary documents had been served.

The defendants, represented by O.O. Jarikre and Akomaye, acknowledged receipt of the motion and confirmed that discussions between the parties had been productive, with no objections raised to the application.

Highlighting the urgency of the situation, Justice Mohammed directed the defendants to file an interim compliance report with the court within 14 days.

The deadline, an extension from the initially proposed seven days, revealed the court’s commitment to ensuring that effective measures were swiftly taken to address the ecological damage caused by the oil spill.

The court’s decision was greeted with jubilation by residents of Uzere, who have long suffered the environmental and economic consequences of oil spills.

High Chief Odio Lucky, representing the plaintiff, said the ruling “represents a victory for the Kingdom.”

He added that “it is a critical step in safeguarding the livelihoods and health of the people.”

Uzere Kingdom is in Isoko South Local Government Area of Delta State.

It is a historic oil-producing community and hosts two major oil fields, Uzere East and Uzere West, with dozens of wells, commonly reported as about 43 wells producing around 53,000 barrels per day.

Multiple reports confirm a blowout/eruption at Well 14 in Oil Mining Lease (OML) 30, operated by Heritage Energy Operational Services Limited, also referred to as Heritage Operational Energy Limited or HEOSL.

Contamination of farmland, waterways, fishing grounds, and effects on livelihoods are documented by residents, community leaders, and groups.

Concerns persisted into early August 2026. Many community leaders called for urgent containment, remediation, and public release of investigation findings, according to reports.

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