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Q3 2025: Nigeria Oil Revenue Target, Spending Short by 62%, 41.57% Respectively

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Nigeria’s oil revenue performance deteriorated sharply in the third quarter of 2025 and missed budget expectations by a wide margin of 62 percent.

This reinforced concerns over the country’s fragile fiscal position, even as modest gains were recorded in actual receipts.

In the same vein, Nigeria’s total government expenditure fell significantly below projections in the third quarter of 2025, coming in at N8.03 trillion, 41.57 percent short of the prorated quarterly budget estimate of N13.75 trillion.

Fresh data from the Budget Office of the Federation showed that gross oil revenue for the quarter stood at N4.87 trillion, far below the prorated quarterly projection of N12.76 trillion. This represents a shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8%, underscoring the scale of the gap between projections and reality.

The development comes at a time when the federal government is contending with mounting debt service obligations, persistent fiscal deficits, and an urgent need to strengthen revenue mobilisation, particularly from non-oil sources through ongoing tax reforms and improved collection systems.

Under the 2025 fiscal framework, the government projected gross federally collectible revenue of N78.08 trillion, with oil expected to account for N51.05 trillion, representing 65.38% of total revenue.

On a prorated basis, quarterly revenue was estimated at about N19.52 trillion, highlighting the extent to which oil underperformance is weighing on overall fiscal outcomes.

Despite the sharp shortfall, oil revenue showed slight improvement compared to previous periods. The N4.87 trillion recorded in Q3 was higher than the N4.77 trillion posted in Q2 2025 and N4.62 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024.

According to the Budget Office, this translates to a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5.41% year-on-year growth, an indication of marginal recovery in oil receipts, albeit from a weak base and still far below expectations.

A detailed breakdown of oil revenue components revealed that most major streams fell significantly short of their targets.

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Crude oil and gas sales generated N622.99 billion during the quarter, compared to a projected N1.18 trillion, leaving a deficit of N555.2 billion or 47.12%. Petroleum Profit Tax and gas taxes performed even worse, yielding N1.97 trillion against a target of N7.85 trillion, a massive shortfall of N5.87 trillion, or 74.82%.

Similarly, oil and gas royalties came in at N2.01 trillion, missing the quarterly estimate of N3.43 trillion by N1.42 trillion. Incidental oil revenue, which includes royalty recoveries and marginal field licence earnings, also underperformed sharply, generating just N37 billion compared to a projected N295.88 billion.

In contrast, a handful of revenue lines outperformed expectations, offering limited relief. Concessional rentals rose significantly above projections, generating N7.89 billion against a budgeted N1.03 billion, an overperformance of 667.5%. Miscellaneous oil revenues, including pipeline fees, also exceeded estimates at N9.65 billion versus the projected N5.86 billion.

Additionally, gas flared penalties and exchange gains contributed N181.61 billion and N28.65 billion respectively, despite not being captured in the original budget projections.

The persistent underperformance highlights the structural vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s fiscal framework, which remains heavily dependent on oil revenues despite sustained policy efforts to diversify income sources. While the government has intensified non-oil revenue mobilisation through tax reforms, digitised collection platforms and broader fiscal restructuring, oil receipts continue to play a central role in financing public expenditure, servicing debt and sustaining budget implementation.

Production shortfalls have further compounded the problem. The 2025 budget was anchored on a crude oil production benchmark of 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), but actual output has consistently trailed this assumption.

Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), indicate that total crude oil and condensate production between January and September 2025 stood at 454.28 million barrels. This translates to an average daily production of 1.66 mbpd, well below the budget benchmark.

Nigeria has also struggled to meet its production quotas under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for several months, reflecting ongoing challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment and operational inefficiencies in the upstream sector.

The widening gap between projected and actual oil revenue underscores the risks of continued reliance on hydrocarbons in an increasingly volatile global energy market. It also raises fresh concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions, especially as borrowing continues to rise to plug revenue shortfalls.

With oil still accounting for the bulk of government earnings, analysts warn that without significant improvements in production levels and a more aggressive push toward revenue diversification, Nigeria’s fiscal stability will remain exposed to recurring shocks.

Despite the shortfall against the expenditure target, spending in the period was N0.39 trillion, or 4.86 per cent, higher than the N7.64 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

The report also showed that the Federal Government posted a fiscal deficit of N0.33 trillion during the quarter under review. It noted that non-debt recurrent expenditure stood at N2.66 trillion, reflecting a decline of N739.01 billion, or 21.75 percent, below the quarterly estimate of N3.40 trillion. However, this figure was still 31.20 percent higher than the N1.83 trillion recorded in Q3 2024.

In addition, statutory transfers amounted to N360.32 billion within the period. Overall, the fiscal deficit translated to a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 2.29 percent, which remains within the statutory 3 percent threshold as well as the ECOWAS convergence benchmark, indicating compliance despite elevated spending pressures and persistent implementation gaps across key budget components.

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Dangote Bags Corporate Excellence Award for Road Safety Advocacy

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The Dangote Group has received the coveted Road Safety Corporate Excellence Award for its outstanding contributions to safer transportation and accident prevention initiatives from the Kogi State government, in Lokoja.

Similarly, the Pan-African conglomerate received the commendation of road transport industry operators for its sustained support for initiatives aimed at reducing traffic accidents and safeguarding lives.

According to the government which presented the award, it was to celebrate the Group’s outstanding contributions to promoting safer roads, supporting accident prevention initiatives and advancing collaborative efforts aimed at protecting lives along one of Nigeria’s most strategic transportation corridors.

The award was presented before a gathering of government officials, road safety regulators, transport operators, industry leaders and other stakeholders, where participants explored innovative solutions and partnerships required to reduce road crashes, improve traffic management, and strengthen safety standards across the state and beyond.

Kogi State Commissioner for Transport, Hon. Atuluku Victor Levi, who presented the award said it underscored the company’s growing reputation as a champion of safe transportation practices and its commitment to partnering with government and regulatory agencies to improve road safety outcomes across Nigeria.

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According to him, the recognition highlights the company’s longstanding collaboration with the state government and road safety agencies to promote responsible road use, enhance driver safety awareness, and support initiatives that strengthen Nigeria’s transportation ecosystem.

“As one of Nigeria’s largest industrial conglomerates and a major user of the nation’s road network, the Group has continued to champion safety standards across its logistics and transport operations.

“Kogi State occupies a strategic position within Nigeria’s transportation ecosystem, serving as a vital transit corridor linking several states and geopolitical zones. The state’s road infrastructure facilitates the movement of people, goods and services across the country, making stakeholder collaboration critical to reducing road crashes, improving mobility and supporting economic growth”, he stated.

Receiving the award on behalf of the Company management, Abdullahi Aliyu, Assistant Divisional Director, Dangote Cement Transport (DCT), Obajana, thanked the Kogi State Government and road safety stakeholders for the recognition saying the recognition would only spur the Group to do more to support road safety initiatives.

“This award reflects Dangote Group’s unwavering commitment to safety as a core value across all our operations. We remain dedicated to supporting initiatives that promote safer roads, protect lives and contribute to sustainable economic development” Aliyu said, adding that road safety remains a shared responsibility requiring continuous partnership between government, corporate organizations and road users.

“At Dangote, we believe that every journey should end safely. We will continue to invest in safety awareness, driver training and responsible transport practices that help make our highways safer for all users,” he stated.

Reaffirming the company’s commitment to maintaining high safety standards within its transport operations, Aliyu pointed out “safety is not just a regulatory requirement; it is an integral part of our corporate culture. We are committed to strengthening collaborations that improve road safety outcomes and reduce preventable accidents across the communities where we operate.”

Furthermore, the Dangote Cement Transport Director said the recognition aligns with the Company’s broader sustainability agenda and supports the objectives of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as well as reinforcing the Group’s reputation as a responsible corporate citizen committed to promoting safer roads, protecting lives and contributing to sustainable development in Nigeria.

“At Dangote, Road safety is a collective responsibility, and partnerships such as these are crucial to saving lives and strengthening Nigeria’s transport system. Our goal extends beyond business operations; it is about creating safer communities and sustainable mobility for everyone.”

Meanwhile, Stakeholders at the conference commended private sector organizations that have consistently supported road safety campaigns, noting that meaningful partnerships between government and industry are essential to addressing transportation challenges and improving public safety.

It would be recalled that the Dangote Cement Transport recently launched an ultra modern drivers lounge at its Ibese plant in Ogun state, where its drivers could rest and refresh before and after every trip to promote their well being.

Murilo Silva, the Head of Dangote Cement Transport urged the drivers to make maximum use of the lounge to eliminate fatigue by resting well and be in sound mind always

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NNPC Ltd: $3.4bn Saved Through Contract Restructuring

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) claimed that it saved $3.4 billion through contract restructuring and optimisation between April 2025 and July 2026.

Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, made the assertion in Abuja at the opening of the 25th Nigeria Oil & Gas (NOG) Energy Week, while highlighting the impact of ongoing reforms aimed at improving operational efficiency, reducing costs, strengthening partnerships, and enhancing value delivery to the federation.

Ojulari also stated that the national oil company had maintained full compliance with its joint venture cash call obligations.

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According to the scorecard presented by the NNPC Ltd, the $3.4 billion cost savings were realised through contract restructuring and optimisation initiatives across the company’s operations.

The reforms also contributed to an increase in government revenue, with the NNPC Ltd reporting a government take of N19.5 trillion, representing a 21.8 per cent year-on-year increase.

Besides, a major highlight of the report was NNPC’s 100 percent compliance with its joint venture cash call obligations across all its joint ventures from Financial Year 2025 to June 2026.

However, the company’s partners recorded a blended compliance rate of just 61 percent.

Of the 27 joint venture partners, only six were fully current with their obligations, while 13 recorded partial compliance with an average payment rate of 72 percent, and eight remained in significant default, paying an average of only 14 percent, prompting Joint Operating Agreement remedies.

The NNPC Ltd said it remained committed to sustaining its cash call obligations to support Nigeria’s target of achieving two million barrels of oil production per day.

Operationally, the company reported a six percent increase in crude oil production year-on-year and an 8.1 percent rise in gas production over the same period, reflecting improvements in upstream operations.

Ojulari also highlighted several strategic partnerships concluded since the last Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference, including a long term gas supply agreement with Nigeria LNG, progress on deepwater investments valued at over $20 billion, refinery related partnerships, industrial gas projects, and new gas supply arrangements.

Looking ahead, the company identified seven priority projects expected to drive production and gas infrastructure growth through 2027.

These, it said, included the UTM Floating LNG project, the OB3 East West Connector, the AKK gas pipeline, refinery technical enhancement projects, the Zabazaba deepwater development, the Owowo field, and the BSWAP project.

The state oil major added that the combination of cost optimisation, stronger operational performance, improved infrastructure reliability, and strategic partnerships would reinforce Nigeria’s energy security, boost government revenues, and support sustainable growth in oil and gas production.

Ojulari said the national oil company achieved 98 percent recovery across five crude export terminals between April 2025 and May 2026, up from one per cent at Bonny in June 2022.

He put current output at 1.71mbpd, the highest in five years, with the NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NEPL) hitting a record 365,000 bpd.

Gas production, he said, reached 7.5 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscf/d) following the River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Pipeline and inauguration of the ANOH Gas Plant.

Ojulari added that the NNPC Ltd had “zero tolerance for partners who are not able to fund their Cash-call” and had begun invoking default clauses.

He stressed collaboration over control, saying, “We have rid ourselves of any pseudo-regulation. We are not the super-regulator. Let them regulate. We want to work.”

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Energia, Oando Inaugurate Board for HCDT in Delta Community

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Leaf Investment Emerges Substantial Investor in Oando

Energia Limited and its Joint Venture partner, Oando Plc, have inaugurated the board of trustees of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust (HCDT).

The inauguration marked a significant milestone in strengthening sustainable development, transparency and community participation across their host communities in Delta State.

The inauguration, held in Asaba, also featured the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Energia-Oando Joint Venture and the seven host communities, in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021.

The event brought together representatives of Delta State Government, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), traditional rulers, community leaders, members of the newly inaugurated board of trustees, and other key stakeholders from the oil and gas industry.

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Representing the Governor of Deputy Governor, Delta State, Sir Monday Onyeme, Deputy Chief of Staff, Hon. Christopher Osaskwe commended Energia Limited and the host communities for successfully establishing the Trust and signing the Memorandum of Understanding.

He described the initiative as a demonstration of mutual commitment to partnership and sustainable development, while urging the newly inaugurated board to discharge its responsibilities with transparency, accountability and fairness.

He also encouraged host communities to continue protecting oil and gas infrastructure and embrace dialogue as the preferred approach to resolving disputes.

Managing Director, Energia Limited, Oladimeji Bashorun, described the inauguration as the beginning of a new chapter in the relationship between Energia and its host communities.

According to him, the company remains focused on building partnership, shared responsibility and sustainable development rather than dependency.

He noted that while the PIA provides a structured framework for host community development, Energia’s commitment to its host communities predates the legislation and has remained a core part of the Company’s operating philosophy since it achieved First Oil in 2009.

“Communities that host our operations should also share meaningfully in the opportunities created by those operations. Our success has always been closely connected to the success of our host communities,” Bashorun said.

He also disclosed that Energia has invested over N15.94 billion in community development initiatives since inception, supporting roads, drainage systems, healthcare facilities, educational programmes, scholarships, youth empowerment, solar-powered street lighting, community welfare initiatives and other social investments across its operational communities. He added that the Company dedicates 3% of its gross revenue annually to support sustainable development initiatives for its host communities.

Also speaking at the event, the Asset Manager of Oando, Seyi Fawora, reaffirmed the Joint Venture’s commitment to implementing the HCDT, noting that the partnership remains focused on building stronger, mutually beneficial relationships with host communities.

The representative of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Engr. Dennis Eyitemi, described the inauguration as a significant milestone in strengthening host community participation in development. He urged members of the Board of Trustees to remain accountable, transparent and committed to promoting the long-term welfare of the communities they represent.

Providing an overview of the HCDT framework, the Delta State Solicitor-General and Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Justice, Omamuzo Irebe, SAN, commended Energia for contributing beyond the statutory requirement prescribed under the Petroleum Industry Act and encouraged members of the Board to place community interests above personal interests while ensuring prudent management of the Trust’s resources.

The ceremony concluded with the swearing-in of the members of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust Board of Trustees. In his acceptance remarks, the Chairman of the Board, Chief Godwin Edeme, pledged the Board’s commitment to working with Energia Limited, Oando Petroleum Development Company and all stakeholders to ensure the effective implementation of the Trust for the benefit of present and future generations.

The establishment of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust represents another milestone in Energia’s long-standing commitment to responsible operations, stakeholder engagement and creating shared value for its host communities through sustainable, transparent and inclusive development. About Energia Limited

Energia Limited is a leading indigenous Nigerian exploration and production company with a proven track record of responsible hydrocarbon development and sustainable value creation. Since achieving First Oil in 2009, Energia has remained committed to operational excellence, environmental stewardship, and meaningful partnerships with its host communities, delivering lasting social and economic impact alongside its business growth.

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