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Q3 2025: Nigeria Oil Revenue Target, Spending Short by 62%, 41.57% Respectively

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Nigeria’s oil revenue performance deteriorated sharply in the third quarter of 2025 and missed budget expectations by a wide margin of 62 percent.

This reinforced concerns over the country’s fragile fiscal position, even as modest gains were recorded in actual receipts.

In the same vein, Nigeria’s total government expenditure fell significantly below projections in the third quarter of 2025, coming in at N8.03 trillion, 41.57 percent short of the prorated quarterly budget estimate of N13.75 trillion.

Fresh data from the Budget Office of the Federation showed that gross oil revenue for the quarter stood at N4.87 trillion, far below the prorated quarterly projection of N12.76 trillion. This represents a shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8%, underscoring the scale of the gap between projections and reality.

The development comes at a time when the federal government is contending with mounting debt service obligations, persistent fiscal deficits, and an urgent need to strengthen revenue mobilisation, particularly from non-oil sources through ongoing tax reforms and improved collection systems.

Under the 2025 fiscal framework, the government projected gross federally collectible revenue of N78.08 trillion, with oil expected to account for N51.05 trillion, representing 65.38% of total revenue.

On a prorated basis, quarterly revenue was estimated at about N19.52 trillion, highlighting the extent to which oil underperformance is weighing on overall fiscal outcomes.

Despite the sharp shortfall, oil revenue showed slight improvement compared to previous periods. The N4.87 trillion recorded in Q3 was higher than the N4.77 trillion posted in Q2 2025 and N4.62 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024.

According to the Budget Office, this translates to a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5.41% year-on-year growth, an indication of marginal recovery in oil receipts, albeit from a weak base and still far below expectations.

A detailed breakdown of oil revenue components revealed that most major streams fell significantly short of their targets.

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Crude oil and gas sales generated N622.99 billion during the quarter, compared to a projected N1.18 trillion, leaving a deficit of N555.2 billion or 47.12%. Petroleum Profit Tax and gas taxes performed even worse, yielding N1.97 trillion against a target of N7.85 trillion, a massive shortfall of N5.87 trillion, or 74.82%.

Similarly, oil and gas royalties came in at N2.01 trillion, missing the quarterly estimate of N3.43 trillion by N1.42 trillion. Incidental oil revenue, which includes royalty recoveries and marginal field licence earnings, also underperformed sharply, generating just N37 billion compared to a projected N295.88 billion.

In contrast, a handful of revenue lines outperformed expectations, offering limited relief. Concessional rentals rose significantly above projections, generating N7.89 billion against a budgeted N1.03 billion, an overperformance of 667.5%. Miscellaneous oil revenues, including pipeline fees, also exceeded estimates at N9.65 billion versus the projected N5.86 billion.

Additionally, gas flared penalties and exchange gains contributed N181.61 billion and N28.65 billion respectively, despite not being captured in the original budget projections.

The persistent underperformance highlights the structural vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s fiscal framework, which remains heavily dependent on oil revenues despite sustained policy efforts to diversify income sources. While the government has intensified non-oil revenue mobilisation through tax reforms, digitised collection platforms and broader fiscal restructuring, oil receipts continue to play a central role in financing public expenditure, servicing debt and sustaining budget implementation.

Production shortfalls have further compounded the problem. The 2025 budget was anchored on a crude oil production benchmark of 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), but actual output has consistently trailed this assumption.

Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), indicate that total crude oil and condensate production between January and September 2025 stood at 454.28 million barrels. This translates to an average daily production of 1.66 mbpd, well below the budget benchmark.

Nigeria has also struggled to meet its production quotas under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for several months, reflecting ongoing challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment and operational inefficiencies in the upstream sector.

The widening gap between projected and actual oil revenue underscores the risks of continued reliance on hydrocarbons in an increasingly volatile global energy market. It also raises fresh concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions, especially as borrowing continues to rise to plug revenue shortfalls.

With oil still accounting for the bulk of government earnings, analysts warn that without significant improvements in production levels and a more aggressive push toward revenue diversification, Nigeria’s fiscal stability will remain exposed to recurring shocks.

Despite the shortfall against the expenditure target, spending in the period was N0.39 trillion, or 4.86 per cent, higher than the N7.64 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

The report also showed that the Federal Government posted a fiscal deficit of N0.33 trillion during the quarter under review. It noted that non-debt recurrent expenditure stood at N2.66 trillion, reflecting a decline of N739.01 billion, or 21.75 percent, below the quarterly estimate of N3.40 trillion. However, this figure was still 31.20 percent higher than the N1.83 trillion recorded in Q3 2024.

In addition, statutory transfers amounted to N360.32 billion within the period. Overall, the fiscal deficit translated to a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 2.29 percent, which remains within the statutory 3 percent threshold as well as the ECOWAS convergence benchmark, indicating compliance despite elevated spending pressures and persistent implementation gaps across key budget components.

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Imported Petrol Now Costs More than Dangote Fuel – Report

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The landed cost of imported Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) has climbed above the gantry price offered by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, reinforcing calls by petroleum marketers for Nigeria to halt fuel importation and prioritise local refining.

The latest Energy Bulletin released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria showed that the spot landed cost of imported petrol stood at N1,223.32 per litre as of July 29.

The price is higher than the Dangote refinery’s gantry price of N1,215 per litre, indicating that imported petrol currently costs marketers more than supplies sourced from the 650,000-barrels-per-day Lekki-based refinery.

The MEMAN bulletin also showed that Brent crude averaged $90 per barrel during the review period.

The development comes days after the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria renewed its call for an end to petrol importation, arguing that local refining capacity is sufficient to meet the country’s fuel demand.

IPMAN National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike, recently told The PUNCH that there was no justification for continued petrol imports when local refineries, particularly the Dangote refinery, were producing enough to supply the domestic market.

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He argued that importing petrol when locally refined products were available only exerted additional pressure on foreign exchange and undermined investments in domestic refining.

The latest pricing data appears to support the marketers’ position, with the landed cost of imported petrol now exceeding the Dangote refinery’s gantry price.

According to the MEMAN bulletin, Dangote’s coastal price for PMS stood at N1,195 per litre, while its gantry price was N1,215 per litre, inclusive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority charges.

The report also showed that the naira averaged N1,367.03/$ during the review period, while international crude oil prices remained elevated, contributing to higher import costs.

The rise in global crude prices also pushed up the cost of refined petroleum products internationally. The price of diesel traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in Europe averaged $1,246.54 per metric tonne during the review period.

The bulletin further revealed that the spot landed cost of diesel rose to N1,739.96 per litre, compared with a 30-day average of N1,427.00 per litre, while aviation fuel climbed to N1,616.43 per litre against a 30-day average of N1,421.10 per litre.

The pricing trend suggests that locally refined petrol currently offers marketers a cheaper alternative than imports.

Earlier, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria urged the Federal Government to halt the importation of petrol, arguing that imported petrol has become more expensive than locally refined products and is frustrating efforts to stabilise prices in the downstream sector.

The association said the continued issuance of fuel import licences was worsening price volatility, putting additional pressure on the naira and undermining the competitiveness of domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Speaking with The PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, said the recent import licences issued by the NMDPRA had failed to achieve their intended objective of moderating domestic fuel prices.

According to him, petrol imported under the new licences is being sold at rates significantly higher than the price of products supplied by the Dangote refinery.

Meanwhile, data from Petroleumprice.ng also showed that some depot owners continued to adjust their ex-depot petrol prices on Thursday amid changing market conditions. AIPEC sold at N1,216 per litre.

Ardova reduced its ex-depot price by N1 to N1,217 per litre, while Ascon and T-Time each cut their prices by N2 to N1,216 per litre. Emadeb, however, increased its price by N1 to N1,218 per litre, while NIPCO retained its price at N1,217 per litre.

Outside Lagos, Aradel raised its ex-depot price by N5 to N1,240 per litre in Port Harcourt. Matrix and Sigmund reduced their prices by N10 each to N1,225 and N1,224 per litre, respectively, while T.S.L. cut its price by N15 to N1,225 per litre.

In Calabar, Hong Petroleum, Mainland and Sobaz each reduced their depot prices by N5 to N1,220 per litre. In Warri, A.Y.M. Shafa increased its price by N3 to N1,233 per litre, while Optima raised its price by N2 to N1,232 per litre. Matrix reduced its price by N3 to N1,230 per litre, while Rainoil cut its price by N2 to N1,240 per litre.

The PUNCH reports that the pump prices of petrol currently hover around N1,250 to N1,300 per litre in Lagos and Ogun states, while they are higher in the North and other distant locations.

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NMDPRA Calls for ECOWAS Petroleum Products Pricing Policy

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A call has gone to the political leadership across the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the institution of a regional pricing benchmark for oil and gas to address rising concerns of uneven pricing.

Making the call on Wednesday in Abuja, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Rabiu Umar, noted that a standard pricing formula across the region would promote cross-border trade and attract investment into the downstream petroleum sector.

He expressed concern that Africa still relies on international markets to determine the prices of petroleum products produced within the continent despite its abundant resources.

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He used the media briefing to disclose that Nigeria, in partnership with S&P Global Commodity Insights and the West Africa Regulators Forum (WARF), would organise the second West Africa Refined Fuel Conference from 11 to 12 August in Abuja.

The theme of the conference is: “Funding West Africa Infrastructure & Distribution to Create a Transparent Market for Regional Price Benchmarks.”

According to him, the event is aimed at developing a formidable regional marketplace where petroleum products can be traded competitively.

He said: “The vision is to establish West Africa as a credible regional marketplace where petroleum products can be traded efficiently, transparently and competitively.

“By strengthening infrastructure, harmonising regulations and improving market data, the region can enhance price discovery, facilitate cross-border trade and attract greater investment.”

Umar said progress had been recorded since the maiden edition of the conference in 2025, including the establishment of the West Africa Regulators Forum, the publication of West African reference prices, and the opening of S&P Global Commodity Insights’ regional office in Abuja.

He said the 2026 edition would focus on infrastructure financing, regional cooperation, market transparency, logistics development, and expanding refining capacity to improve energy security and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

He identified pipelines, storage facilities, marine terminals, ports, rail infrastructure, digital commodity exchanges, trading platforms, strategic petroleum reserves, LNG infrastructure, and logistics corridors as critical investments needed to create an integrated regional energy market.

Umar stressed that regulators have a key role to play in ensuring fair competition, investor confidence, consumer protection, and regional cooperation through harmonised standards and regulations.

He cited the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub in Europe as an example of a benchmark that considers supply, demand, transportation, and logistics costs.

He said: “The more we are able to produce, the more relevant it becomes to have our own reference pricing.”

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Summit Bank Backs Landmark Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market

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In line with its corporate vision, Summit Bank has reinforced its commitment to opportunities and business expansion, entrepreneurship, and Nigeria’s growing digital economy through its support of the newly-commissioned Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market in Kano. Established as a landmark commercial initiative, the digital market will enhance ecommerce and economic opportunities for the African market. It is projected to create more than 100,000 jobs and generate an estimated N50bn annually in economic activity.

Summit Bank joined government officials, industry leaders, and initiative stakeholders on Saturday for the official commissioning of the market. Among the dignitaries were Barr. Abdulkarim Kabiru Maude, Kano State Commissioner of Justice; Yusuf Ata, Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, represented by his Special Assistant (Technical), Kabir Aminu Dutse; Ahmed Idris, former Accountant General of the Federation; Dr. Mansur Muhtah, Chairman of Bank of Industry; and Alhaji Jamilu Abdussalam, CEO, Hajjaj Real Estate.

In his remarks, Dr. Sirajo Salisu, Summit Bank’s MD/CEO, reaffirmed the bank’s belief that access to ethical finance and a thriving commercial ecosystem remain key drivers of sustainable economic growth.

Developed under a public-private partnership (PPP) involving Kano State Government, Hajjaj ZOEC Real Estate, and ZOEC Construction, with Summit Bank as a proud sponsor, the digital market was inaugurated in Tudun Wada, Sabon Gari, Kano. As a transformative project, the bank’s support reflects a commitment to supporting businesses, deepening financial inclusion, and building a more connected digital economy. “We believe this market is not only an opportunity for Kano State or Northern Nigeria but for the entire African continent. Instead of travelling all the way to China to purchase goods in bulk, traders will be able to come to Kano and place their orders here,” Alhaji Abdussalam said, during his remarks.

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While speaking during the ceremony, Dr. Salisu said the significance of the digital market goes beyond its physical infrastructure. “Markets have always been at the centre of enterprise. What the Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market represents is the next stage of evolution that blends physical and digital commerce into a modern ecosystem where businesses can grow, technology can thrive, and entrepreneurs can unlock new opportunities,” he said.

Dr. Salisu said supporting enterprise is a core purpose of Summit Bank as a non-interest financial institution. “We believe banking should do more than provide financial services; it should help create the conditions that allow businesses to flourish,” adding that when entrepreneurs have access to the right ecosystem, markets become stronger, jobs are created, families earn better livelihoods, and communities prosper. He said this is the kind of impact that Summit Bank supports.

Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market is designed as the largest, purpose-built modern business hub for electronic dealers, tech entrepreneurs, wholesalers, retailers, and investors across Nigeria and West Africa. It will provide more than 1500 trading spaces, according to Abdussalam, with state-of-the-art amenities and digital infrastructure. This development strengthens Kano’s longstanding position as a frontline commercial center in Nigeria, and a hub other region can feed into.

For Summit Bank, the development aligns closely with its broader mission of supporting productive enterprise through ethical, transparent and customer-focused banking solutions. The Bank believes that sustainable economic development is built not only through access to finance but also through meaningful partnerships that drive business growth.

The commissioning also reflects Summit Bank’s growing engagement with Nigeria’s SME sector. Through initiatives such as its recent Market Storm activations across key commercial centers in Kano, Kaduna and Abuja, the Bank has continued to deepen relationships with traders, entrepreneurs and small business owners, taking financial education and banking solutions directly to the communities where commerce happens every day.

Summit Bank said it remains committed to supporting initiatives that advance entrepreneurship, expand financial inclusion and strengthen Nigeria’s digital economy, while helping businesses build lasting value for themselves, their customers and their communities.

As an innovative non-interest financial institution, the bank continues to champion a banking model rooted in ethics, transparency, partnership, shared prosperity and responsible growth, connecting finance with real economic activity and contributes meaningfully to national development.

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