Business
Q3 2025: Nigeria Oil Revenue Target, Spending Short by 62%, 41.57% Respectively
Nigeria’s oil revenue performance deteriorated sharply in the third quarter of 2025 and missed budget expectations by a wide margin of 62 percent.
This reinforced concerns over the country’s fragile fiscal position, even as modest gains were recorded in actual receipts.
In the same vein, Nigeria’s total government expenditure fell significantly below projections in the third quarter of 2025, coming in at N8.03 trillion, 41.57 percent short of the prorated quarterly budget estimate of N13.75 trillion.
Fresh data from the Budget Office of the Federation showed that gross oil revenue for the quarter stood at N4.87 trillion, far below the prorated quarterly projection of N12.76 trillion. This represents a shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8%, underscoring the scale of the gap between projections and reality.
The development comes at a time when the federal government is contending with mounting debt service obligations, persistent fiscal deficits, and an urgent need to strengthen revenue mobilisation, particularly from non-oil sources through ongoing tax reforms and improved collection systems.
Under the 2025 fiscal framework, the government projected gross federally collectible revenue of N78.08 trillion, with oil expected to account for N51.05 trillion, representing 65.38% of total revenue.
On a prorated basis, quarterly revenue was estimated at about N19.52 trillion, highlighting the extent to which oil underperformance is weighing on overall fiscal outcomes.
Despite the sharp shortfall, oil revenue showed slight improvement compared to previous periods. The N4.87 trillion recorded in Q3 was higher than the N4.77 trillion posted in Q2 2025 and N4.62 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024.
According to the Budget Office, this translates to a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5.41% year-on-year growth, an indication of marginal recovery in oil receipts, albeit from a weak base and still far below expectations.
A detailed breakdown of oil revenue components revealed that most major streams fell significantly short of their targets.
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Crude oil and gas sales generated N622.99 billion during the quarter, compared to a projected N1.18 trillion, leaving a deficit of N555.2 billion or 47.12%. Petroleum Profit Tax and gas taxes performed even worse, yielding N1.97 trillion against a target of N7.85 trillion, a massive shortfall of N5.87 trillion, or 74.82%.
Similarly, oil and gas royalties came in at N2.01 trillion, missing the quarterly estimate of N3.43 trillion by N1.42 trillion. Incidental oil revenue, which includes royalty recoveries and marginal field licence earnings, also underperformed sharply, generating just N37 billion compared to a projected N295.88 billion.
In contrast, a handful of revenue lines outperformed expectations, offering limited relief. Concessional rentals rose significantly above projections, generating N7.89 billion against a budgeted N1.03 billion, an overperformance of 667.5%. Miscellaneous oil revenues, including pipeline fees, also exceeded estimates at N9.65 billion versus the projected N5.86 billion.
Additionally, gas flared penalties and exchange gains contributed N181.61 billion and N28.65 billion respectively, despite not being captured in the original budget projections.
The persistent underperformance highlights the structural vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s fiscal framework, which remains heavily dependent on oil revenues despite sustained policy efforts to diversify income sources. While the government has intensified non-oil revenue mobilisation through tax reforms, digitised collection platforms and broader fiscal restructuring, oil receipts continue to play a central role in financing public expenditure, servicing debt and sustaining budget implementation.
Production shortfalls have further compounded the problem. The 2025 budget was anchored on a crude oil production benchmark of 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), but actual output has consistently trailed this assumption.
Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), indicate that total crude oil and condensate production between January and September 2025 stood at 454.28 million barrels. This translates to an average daily production of 1.66 mbpd, well below the budget benchmark.
Nigeria has also struggled to meet its production quotas under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for several months, reflecting ongoing challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment and operational inefficiencies in the upstream sector.
The widening gap between projected and actual oil revenue underscores the risks of continued reliance on hydrocarbons in an increasingly volatile global energy market. It also raises fresh concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions, especially as borrowing continues to rise to plug revenue shortfalls.
With oil still accounting for the bulk of government earnings, analysts warn that without significant improvements in production levels and a more aggressive push toward revenue diversification, Nigeria’s fiscal stability will remain exposed to recurring shocks.
Despite the shortfall against the expenditure target, spending in the period was N0.39 trillion, or 4.86 per cent, higher than the N7.64 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
The report also showed that the Federal Government posted a fiscal deficit of N0.33 trillion during the quarter under review. It noted that non-debt recurrent expenditure stood at N2.66 trillion, reflecting a decline of N739.01 billion, or 21.75 percent, below the quarterly estimate of N3.40 trillion. However, this figure was still 31.20 percent higher than the N1.83 trillion recorded in Q3 2024.
In addition, statutory transfers amounted to N360.32 billion within the period. Overall, the fiscal deficit translated to a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 2.29 percent, which remains within the statutory 3 percent threshold as well as the ECOWAS convergence benchmark, indicating compliance despite elevated spending pressures and persistent implementation gaps across key budget components.
Business
Police Ponder Dangote Refinery Equities
The opportunity of owning equities in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) is becoming irresistible, even among pension fund custodians and administrators.
It has emerged that the Nigeria Police Force Pensions Limited (NPFPL) is seriously looking into investment in the ongoing Initial Public Offering (IPO) as part of efforts to diversify its portfolio and sustain returns for police personnel and retirees.
The Acting Managing Director of NPF Pensions, Muhammed Dutse, offered insights on this in Abuja on Monday during activities marking the 2026 Customer Service Week (CSW).
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Dutse said the pension fund administrator was exploring alternative investment opportunities as declining interest rates could affect returns from traditional fixed-income and bank instruments.
“As you can see recently, there’s a lot of hype around Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals. So, we also look up to that as well,” he said.
He explained that the company’s investment strategy would combine equities with private equity, infrastructure funds and other alternative assets rather than depend heavily on returns from bank deposits.
“There are private equity funds, there are infrastructure funds, there are so many investment windows, alternative investments that we can harness to get good returns,” Dutse said.
He added that the company was also assessing opportunities in the stock market, including shares of large Nigerian companies, as part of efforts to protect pension assets and generate competitive returns.
The comments come amid growing interest in investment opportunities around the DPRP, following moves to broaden ownership of the multibillion-dollar facility.
Dutse said the diversification strategy had become particularly important following changes in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy stance, which could affect yields available to pension fund administrators.
According to him, NPFPL would increasingly consider opportunities in infrastructure, private equity and the energy sector to strengthen its investment position.
He stated, “Our strategy is a combination of all these instruments in place. We just don’t rely on what banks give us.
“The good thing about this government is that they have opened up opportunities for investment. So, you see a lot of investment opportunities springing up, like I mentioned earlier, infrastructure funds, private equity funds and, especially, in the areas of energy.”
Dutse said NPFPL had recorded an average annual return of about 23 to 24 percent over the past five years, with returns approaching 37 percent in one of the years.
He said the PFA had developed strategies aimed at maintaining its investment performance despite changes in financial market conditions.
“Clearly, we have worked out some strategies to ensure that we maintain this particular rate of return on our investments, which, of course, is yielding positive returns to all our clients,” he stated.
Beyond investments, Dutse acknowledged concerns among retired police officers about pension benefits, saying the Federal Government was working on measures to improve retirees’ take-home pay.
He said a presidential committee was already considering the matter.
“Currently, there is an attempt by the Federal Government — it’s in fact in the process — and we have been working to ensure that the pay, the take-home pay of retirees, is improved,” he said.
Dutse also said the company operates a Retirement Resettlement Support Scheme (RRSS) to provide temporary support to retiring police officers pending the release of their pension benefits, while pre-retirement programmes expose officers to businesses and skills such as poultry farming.
On customer service, he said NPFPL had expanded direct engagement with contributors and introduced a WhatsApp Business platform, which had attracted nearly 100,000 police officers.
He said the digital platform was designed to allow officers to access pension services remotely without having to visit the NPFPL’s offices.
Business
Ndindi Nyoro Gives Ruto 14 Days to Disclose Dangote Refinery Deal
People’s Party of Kenya leader and Kiharu Member of Parliament Ndindi Nyoro has publicly declared his party’s alignment with the opposition, vowing to collaborate with other opposition leaders to bring President William Ruto’s administration to an end.
Nyoro made the remarks during a public rally in Laare, Igembe North Constituency, Meru County, as part of what he described as the “People’s Tour.”
He said any effort to change Kenya’s leadership must be accompanied by a genuine transformation of the country’s economy and governance structures.
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Nyoro Issues Dangote Refinery Ultimatum
At the Laare rally, Nyoro issued President Ruto a direct 14-day ultimatum to make public the full details of the proposed Dangote oil refinery investment, arguing that Kenyans are entitled to know the terms of the deal.
The demand puts additional pressure on the Ruto administration over a transaction that has attracted scrutiny regarding transparency and the terms under which Kenya would participate.
Courtesy – Tuko
Business
Dangote to Deliver $16bn East Africa Refinery in 40 Months
Africa’s drive for industrial self reliance received a major boost on Wednesday as Kenya President William Ruto and President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, joined African leaders to break ground on a $16 billion petroleum refinery and petrochemicals complex in Lamu, Kenya.
Biztellers reports that the industrial complex is designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day and serve markets across Eastern Africa.
Dangote announced that the $16 billion Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals in Lamu, Kenya, will be delivered within 40 months, with an ambitious local content programme that will provide jobs for qualified Lamu graduates and train more than 1,000 young people from the county. Dangote also disclosed that 30 per cent equity in the 700,000 barrels per day refinery is being offered to East African countries, opening the landmark project to regional ownership as part of a broader strategy to strengthen energy security and retain more of Africa’s wealth within the continent.
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Dangote said the project would be executed at speed, assuring the gathering that the refinery would be completed within 40 months. He said the company had already begun mobilising equipment and technical resources for the project and would draw extensively from lessons learnt in delivering the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos. According to him, the Kenyan refinery would be one of the fastest major projects undertaken by the Group, as the company seeks to demonstrate that African businesses can execute complex industrial projects at globally competitive scale and speed.
Dangote placed local participation at the heart of the project, announcing that qualified graduates from Lamu would be offered opportunities to work on the development, while more than 1,000 young people from the host communities would receive technical and vocational training to prepare them for jobs within the refinery and its emerging industrial ecosystem. The Group will establish a training school to develop the technical skills required by the refinery, with emphasis on equipping local young people to participate directly in construction and subsequent operations. Dangote said the objective was to ensure that the economic footprint of the investment extended well beyond the refinery.
“We want young Kenyans and East Africans with skills here. We want local businesses to become suppliers. We want entrepreneurs around this project,” he said. “For me, the true measure of this project will not be the height of these towers or the number of barrels it processes.”
Instead, he said its success would also be measured by young Kenyans acquiring engineering and technical skills, local entrepreneurs building businesses around the investment and communities enjoying improved livelihoods. “Industrialisation must have a human face. It must create dignity. It must create jobs. It must create opportunities. It must create hope,” Dangote said.
President Ruto put the cost of the development at $16 billion, or about KSh2 trillion, describing it as a “generational undertaking” designed to serve not only Kenya but the wider Eastern African region. The project is designed to process about 700,000 barrels of crude oil daily and generate up to 1,000 megawatts of electricity. It will also include polypropylene and base oil production as part of an integrated refining and petrochemicals complex.
Ruto reinforced the employment commitment, saying current projections envisage about 60,000 direct and indirect jobs from the development. The President directed technical and vocational institutions and universities to prepare welders, technicians, engineers and managers for the opportunities, insisting that young people from Lamu and neighbouring communities must be given a fair opportunity to compete for the jobs. Ruto said the construction phase alone was expected to inject more than KSh2 billion monthly in wages into the economy, with the money circulating through shops, hotels, restaurants, transport, housing and other businesses.
In another significant move towards regional economic integration, Dangote disclosed that 30 per cent of the refinery’s equity would be made available to East African countries, allowing governments in the region to participate in the ownership and future value created by the project. He said Kenya and Rwanda had already moved quickly to take advantage of the opportunity. The ownership model fits into Dangote’s broader argument that African countries and investors should not merely host major industrial projects but should increasingly participate in their ownership and prosperity. Dangote said the refinery had been designed as a regional asset serving Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and other markets.
“This refinery is therefore not simply about one country. It is about a region,” he said.
The industrialist said Africa could no longer afford an economic model under which crude oil, minerals and agricultural commodities were exported while the continent imported the finished products derived from them.
“Africa cannot build lasting prosperity by exporting what it has and importing what it needs,” he said. “We must refine more of what we produce. We must process more of what we produce. We must retain more value here at home in Africa.”
The Governor of Lamu County, Issa Timamy also used the groundbreaking to condemn attempts to stop the project through litigation, describing those behind the move as working against an investment capable of transforming the economic fortunes of the county. Addressing residents partly in Swahili, the Governor said those who had gone to court against the development did not represent the aspirations of the people of Lamu.
He argued that opponents of the project were seeking to frustrate an investment that could provide opportunities for thousands of young people and insisted that residents would not allow the county’s development prospects to be undermined.
The Governor maintained that the project would go ahead and be completed, while calling on young people and businesses in the county to prepare themselves for the opportunities that would accompany the investment. He said Lamu had for too long been rich in history, culture and natural resources but left behind in the march of development, adding that the refinery offered the county an opportunity to become a major investment and industrial destination.
He nevertheless stressed the importance of protecting Lamu’s mangroves, fishing grounds, coastline and cultural heritage, calling for responsible development that would allow industrialisation and environmental protection to coexist.
Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo led other African leaders in celebrating Dangote’s emergence as one of the continent’s leading champions of industrialisation, recalling his evolution from trading and importation into large scale manufacturing. Obasanjo said the transformation demonstrated the importance of African governments creating the right environment for indigenous entrepreneurs to invest, manufacture and compete at scale. For the former President, the Lamu investment represented a further expansion of that industrialisation philosophy from West Africa into East Africa.
Obasanjo said he was particularly pleased to witness the project because of its potential to deepen economic integration between the two regions and demonstrate what African entrepreneurship, supported by purposeful political leadership, could accomplish.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said Africa could not continue exporting raw materials while surrendering the jobs and wealth associated with processing them elsewhere. He backed the regional ownership proposal, describing the opportunity for East African countries to acquire equity in the refinery as a smart approach to ensuring that the region participated not merely as a market but also as an owner.
Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, said the refinery would strengthen East Africa’s energy security and reduce its vulnerability to disruptions in global petroleum markets. He said Dangote’s record in cement, fertiliser and petroleum refining had demonstrated that African industrial enterprises could operate at global scale. “East Africa is not only a market. It is a place to produce, to build and to create value,” Abiy said.
Photo Caption: From Left – Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed; President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni; President of Kenya, William Ruto; President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote; former President of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo; President of Benin Republic, Romuald Wadagni; and President of Togo, Jean Lucien Savi de Tové, during the groundbreaking ceremony of the Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals SEZ in Mokowe, Lamu County, Kenya, on Wednesday, September 30, 2026





