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Seplat Energy ratings Upgraded to ‘B’ by Fitch, Outlook Stable

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Seplat Energy ratings Upgraded to ‘B’ by Fitch, Outlook Stable

Precious ADELOLA

LONDON, UK – Seplat Energy Plc (“Seplat Energy” or “the Company”), a leading Nigerian independent energy company listed on both the Nigerian Exchange Limited and the London Stock Exchange, has been upgraded to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘ by Fitch Ratings on its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR).

Fitch also confirms Seplat Energy’s Outlook to be ‘Stable’ and upgraded the Company’s senior unsecured rating for USD650 million senior notes due 2026 to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘, with a Recovery Rating of ‘RR4’.

The rating agency stated: “The upgrade reflects improved financial flexibility and a strong liquidity profile following debt refinancing in 2021, which in our view will help Seplat Energy survive for more than two years of force majeure without access to the Trans Forcados Pipeline (TFP). Amukpe-Escravos Pipeline (AEP), an alternative oil export route, has been completed and is undergoing commissioning, according to Seplat, but there is no certainty around when it will ship its first oil.”

The rating incorporates the small scale of Seplat Energy’s cash flows, concentration of the company’s asset base in Nigeria (B/Stable) and a historically unstable operating environment in the troubled Niger Delta, including recurring issues with the oil transportation system. The rating also reflects moderate leverage, conservative financial policies, competitive unit profitability, end-2020 2P reserve life of 27 years, and a growing domestic gas business.

Specifically, Fitch upgraded Seplat Energy’s $650m bonds to B from B-. The upgrade reflects improved financial flexibility and a strong liquidity profile following debt refinancing in 2021. Because of Seplat Energy’s prudent approach to financial management, Fitch believes the company has built a very strong balance sheet. Even if the Trans Forcados Pipeline was in force majeure for an unprecedented two years, Seplat Energy has sufficient strength to survive and service its debt interest

Fitch view is underpinned by its view of Seplat Energy’s prudent debt management, flexibility on dividends and flexibility to deploy capex. Fitch sees Seplat Energy’s gas business as having potential to enhance cash flows, particularly after ANOH comes onstream; ANOH itself is already fully funded

Fitch lauds Seplat Energy’s ESG efforts and notes deeper communication and cooperation between local communities, the government and Seplat have significantly reduced the number of attacks on oil infrastructure.  

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Resilience to Prolonged Pipeline Disruption: Seplat Energy’s debt refinancing in 2021 has resulted in no maturities in 2022 and just USD27 million of maturities in 2023. Its debt repayments are USD44 million in 2024 and USD40 million in 2025. We expect Seplat to be able to service its debt even in the extreme scenario that its export route via TFP is not operational in 2022-2023. It had USD220 million of unrestricted cash at 30 September 2021, and it should be able to generate cash flows from its eastern assets and use the expensive Warri refinery export route for its western assets if TFP is shut down.

Continued Delays with AEP: Following multiple delays since 2014, Seplat Energy’s latest guidance on AEP’s first oil flow is December 2021. Seplat also needs to agree offtake terms for the oil before shipments can begin. The start of oil deliveries though AEP remains uncertain, in our opinion. AEP will allow oil exports of 40 kb/d, reducing over-reliance on the TFP export route that had adversely affected Seplat in the past. The underground AEP should materially improve the pipeline uptime (74% in 9M21 for TFP) and shrink losses from crude theft and reconciliation (11%).

Small Nigerian E&P Company: Seplat Energy’s operations are concentrated around the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The Nigerian oil and gas sector is characterised by high operational risks and regulatory uncertainty. Its main assets are oil mining leases (OMLs) 4, 38 and 41, which accounted for around 79% of 9M21 production and are reliant on the TFP. We expect Seplat to ramp up its daily oil and gas output to 59 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d) until 2024 from 47 kboe/d in 9M21. In our view, OPEC+ cuts, which are gradually being unwound, will not hinder Seplat’s production growth.

Inorganic Growth: Fitch expects Seplat Energy’s management to actively seek opportunities for inorganic growth in Nigeria. Domestic opportunities exist as oil majors continue to streamline their portfolios, exiting Nigeria. Seplat Energy’s ability to expand through acquisitions is boosted by an undrawn USD350 million revolving credit facility (RCF). We view Seplat’s financial policies as conservative for the rating with funds from operations (FFO) net leverage averaging 1.7x in 2021-2025. Our view is underpinned by debt management, flexibility on dividends and on capex, as seen during the TFP non-availability in 2016-2017. We view large acquisitions as an event risk.

Gas Business Provides Stability: Seplat Energy’s growing footprint in the domestic gas market will enhance cash flow stability as gas sales benefit from more predictable domestic gas prices than oil. Nevertheless, regulated gas price under domestic supply obligation for power generation (around 30% of Seplat’s gas volumes) was lowered in July 2021 to USD2.18 per thousand cubic feet (kcf) from USD2.5/kcf, after having been flat through 2014-2020. Seplat sells the rest of its gas to commercial companies at contract prices averaging USD2.9/kcf. Its gas production was 19 kboe/d in 9M21, or 41% of total hydrocarbon volumes.

ANOH Plant Scheduled for 1H22: ANOH gas processing plant (GPP) – which is 50%/50%-owned by Seplat and Nigerian Gas Company Limited (NGC) – underpins the former’s effort to further expand gas operations, adding 300 kcf/d to its existing 465 kcf/d gross processing capacity. The JV partners have finalised non-recourse debt funding for the project, which is an important milestone. Seplat expects to start receiving dividends from 2023, although we conservatively do not include any contribution in our rating case. Seplat is also marginally expanding its GPP at Sapele and adding liquefied petroleum gas unit to it.

Income Tax Capital Allowance: Seplat Energy pays income tax that is reduced by its accumulated capital allowance derived from historical expenditures. We forecast its effective income tax rate on oil production to remain considerably below the nominal 85% until its USD747 million capital allowance at end-3Q21 is exhausted. We conservatively assume that Seplat will start paying significantly higher income taxes in 2025, based on our oil-price assumptions. Seplat has an option to remain in the current tax regime until its concession terms expire despite the enactment of the new tax system in 2021.

ESG – Social: Fitch has revised Seplat Energy’s ESG Relevance Score for Human Rights, Community Relations, Access & Affordability to ‘4’ from ‘5’ as deeper communication and cooperation between local communities, the government and Seplat Energy has significantly reduced the number of attacks on oil infrastructure. The uptime in recent years was 74% in 9M21, 83% in 2020, 92% in 2019 and 85% in 2018, compared with 50% in 2017.

Seplat Energy’s upstream operations focus on the troubled Niger Delta region. Historically, this area has been a high-risk environment driven by militancy, crude oil theft, pipeline sabotage, as well as environmental pollution arising from militant strikes against oil infrastructure. TFP was shut down for 305 days in 2016 and more than 182 days in 2017, adversely affecting the company’s operations.

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Energy

NALPGAM Preaches Innovation, Safety to LPG Operators

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GAS: New Temile/Hyundai LPG Vessel to bring down high cost of cooking gas in Nigeria-NCDMB

The Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers (NALPGAM) has urged operators in Nigeria’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) industry to strengthen safety standards, improve regulatory compliance and adopt digital technologies to reduce operational losses and drive business growth.

The association said improved operational practices would help protect investments, enhance efficiency, build consumer confidence and support the sustainable expansion of C.

The call followed its 2026 webinar, themed “Downstream LPG Operational Excellence and Compliance,” which brought together industry operators, regulators and other stakeholders to discuss safety risks, market volatility, operational inefficiencies and regulatory requirements in the downstream LPG sector.

Speaking at the event, NALPGAM National President, Edu Inyang, said the industry’s long-term growth would depend on more than increased consumption and supply volumes, stressing the need to embed safety and operational efficiency in everyday business practices.

“The future of Nigeria’s LPG industry cannot be achieved by increasing volumes alone. We must grow safely, responsibly, efficiently and sustainably. Safety is not an occasional campaign; it must become a continuous industry culture,” he said.

READ ALSO: Tinubu Promises to Boost Local Production with NNPC Refineries

A major outcome of the webinar was a proposal for a NALPGAM Standard of Operational Excellence, anchored on four principles: safe and well-maintained facilities, competent and adequately trained operators, regulatory-compliant processes, and consumer protection.

Participants urged operators to integrate safety into routine operations, strengthen preventive maintenance and comply with licensing and incident-reporting requirements.

They also called for an end to unsafe practices, including unauthorised propane blending and illegal decanting, warning that such activities could expose businesses and consumers to avoidable risks.

Inyang said compliance should be viewed as a means of strengthening business performance rather than merely fulfilling regulatory obligations.

“Compliance is not merely a regulatory burden; it is a business advantage. Well-managed LPG operations reduce accidents, improve efficiency, protect investments and strengthen public confidence in our industry,” he said.

The webinar also highlighted the role of digital technologies in improving operational efficiency and accountability across the LPG value chain.

Participants identified smart filling systems, automated tank gauges, load cells, flow meters and vehicle-tracking systems as practical tools for monitoring product movements, reducing losses and improving inventory management.

Wider adoption of these technologies, they said, could help operators strengthen operational controls, minimise discrepancies and improve the reliability of LPG distribution.

The discussions come as Nigeria seeks to expand LPG consumption to approximately five million tonnes annually by 2030, a target that will require increased investment, stronger distribution networks and wider consumer access.

Stakeholders called for greater industry participation in the Decade of Gas LPG penetration programme, alongside stronger collaboration to expand access, improve cylinder traceability and promote certified local manufacturing.

The NALPGAM also urged regulators and programme coordinators to involve its members more actively in implementing LPG penetration and cylinder recirculation initiatives.

According to the association, its members’ nationwide presence and proximity to consumers could help improve the reach and effectiveness of programmes designed to increase LPG adoption.

Reiterating the association’s position, Inyang said the industry must establish clear operational standards that protect consumers while supporting efficient and sustainable business practices.

“Our aspiration is clear: every LPG facility must be safe and properly maintained, every operator competent and adequately trained, every process compliant, and every customer protected. This is the standard of operational excellence we must collectively pursue,” he said.

The NALPGAM reaffirmed its commitment to working with government agencies, regulators and industry stakeholders to develop a safer, more efficient and competitive LPG market.

The association maintained that embedding safety, strengthening compliance and deploying appropriate technologies would be critical to improving operational performance and supporting the long-term growth of Nigeria’s LPG industry.

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Energy

Fears of Fresh US Strikes on Iran Fuels Crude Price Surge

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OPEC Appoints Next Secretary General, Effective August 2022

Fears of renewed US military strikes on Iran and escalating threats to energy infrastructure across the Middle East heightened concerns about global crude supplies have pushed-up crude oil prices in the global market.

These factors pushed crude oil prices over $117 a barrel in the global market, even as oil theft and pipeline losses in Nigeria fell by 82.9 percent in five years, from 102,900 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 17,600 bpd in the first seven months of 2026, amid fresh concerns about further increases in lost volumes after years of decline.

Nigeria’s oil benchmark, Brent crude, climbed by about 3.5 percent to cross $117 a barrel during trading before easing to just above $116, still up approximately 2.7 percent.

READ ALSO: Navy Uncovers 132,000 Litres of Stolen Crude Oil in Bonny

The latest rally followed reports that Washington was considering fresh military strikes against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, raising concerns that the conflict, now in its eighth month, could escalate further rather than move towards a diplomatic resolution.

Iran had threatened to attack oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure across the Gulf if the United States and Israel launched a new offensive against the country.

Recall that Brent crude traded at about $72 a barrel in February, before the war began, but surged to about $126 a barrel by the end of April as the conflict intensified and concerns mounted over supply security.

Tensions rose again during the week following claims by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) that it struck four commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.

The US ordered some diplomats and family members of American government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, which had faced continued attacks by Houthi rebels operating from Yemen.

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Energy

NMDPRA Issues Updates on Q3 Crude Supplies to Domestic Refineries

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From January to September 2026, the domestic refineries in Nigeria received 156.52 million barrels of crude oil.

Of the volume, 125.85million barrels (80.4 percent) were sourced from in-country while 30.66 million barrels (19.6 percent) were imported.

This was contained in the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) Factsheet September 2026 released on Thursday.

The Factsheet specifically revealed that in September 2026, 38.7 million litres of the Premium Motor Spirit PMS (petrol) were received per day, crashing from the 50.5million litres per day received in August by 23 percent.

READ ALSO: Thor Empowers Host Communities with 10 Cassava, Palm Oil Processing Plants

Stock sufficiency in September was 23.9 days, declining below the 30-day threshold.

The NMDPRA stressed that while 28.7million litres were supplied per day from domestic sources, declining by 21 percent from the previous month, 10.2 million litres were imported, reducing imported petrol by 30 percent in the period under review.

According to the Factsheet, “Domestic refining contributed about 65 percent of the national petrol requirement (consumption) in September 2026, and about 74 percent of receipts, supplemented by 26 percent of imports”.

The Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals Company (DPRP) is the only domestic refinery which currently produces petrol in Nigeria.

The report added that the DPRP produced 47.22 million litres per day of PMS in September, supplying 28.50 million litres per day to the domestic market and exporting (35.2 percent) 15.47 million litres per day.

On capacity utilization, the refinery recorded 105.98 percent of its 650,000 barrels per day capacity in the period under review.

The Factsheet disclosed that 8.7million litres of diesel were consumed in the month under review.

The NMDPRA revealed that modular refineries supplied 4.3 percent of domestic diesel consumption in September.

Aradel and OPAC, said the Factsheet, operated below optimal capacity due to feedstock challenges and maintenance shutdowns.

September diesel receipts, according to the NMDPRA, were the lowest of the 13 months, driven by low imports and low domestic evacuation amid high prices.

The Factsheet said, “Nigeria’s energy-sector transformation is progressing. Domestic refining contributed about 65 percent of the national petrol requirement (consumption) in September 2026, and about 74 percent of receipts, supplemented by 26 percent of imports.

“Priority gas projects have reached significant mileage, with the AKK pipeline at 84 percent completion as of September 2026,” the Factsheet pointed out.

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