Finance
Soludo carpets President Jonathan over reaction on missing N30 trillion
Prof. Charles Chukwuma Soludo
Former governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Charles Soludo is setting the record straight about his allegations that more than N30 trillion has been lost, stolen or unaccounted for under Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s watch in the last four years.
Soludo is expatiating on his claims in response to president Goodluck Jonathan‘s response on the matter, in which he stated that Soludo’s claims are illogical. Jonathan’s statement is contained in a ThisDay article titled, “Jonathan Replies Soludo over missing N30 trillion claim,” .
In the article, Jonathan stated:
“Not too long ago I read in one of the papers, I think Vanguard, that former chief economic adviser to President Obasanjo who also went to become a CBN governor… Soludo is a professor and first class material. Yes, making a first class in economics, he is a brilliant person. His secondary school records are fantastic. So by all standards he is a brilliant person. So the Vanguard wrote that he accused Ngozi; that N30 trillion was stolen under the watch of Ngozi in four years,” the president said.
“Ngozi became a finance minister, let’s say from 2011 till date. From that time till now, our annual budget is between N4.3 trillion and N4.9 trillion. So even if you put all together, it is about 18 plus trillion naira, and not 30 trillion. The budget for these four years is less than N20 trillion, but Soludo said that under Ngozi’s watch they stole N30 trillion. This is in the papers, social media, stored in the clouds and will continue to be there. And when you type it in it will come out that during President Jonathan’s time they stole N30 trillion.”
Read Soludo’s response to Jonathan:
My attention has been drawn this morning to an article entitled: “Jonathan Replies Soludo over “missing N30 trillion” claim”— extracting from Mr. President’s interview as published by Thisday newspaper.
ThisDay quoted Mr. President as saying that “Soludo said that under Ngozi’s watch they stole N30 trillion” but that since the sum of the federal budget over the last four years was less than N30 trillion, such an amount could not have been “stolen”.
According to the President, “it is all political”. I had earlier stated that I would not make further comments on the issues until probably after the elections but since Mr. President has decided to join the fray, I am constrained to make a further brief clarification.
For me, President Jonathan is a gentleman and a friend but I have a fundamental disagreement on his management of the economy. On the issues at stake, I believe that the pressures of office and the hectic electioneering campaigns have not allowed him time to read my articles or that his staff have not explained the contents to him hence he totally missed the point in his comments. For the avoidance of doubt, let me clarify as follows:
1. In my article entitled “Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and the Missing Trillions”, I presented some rough calculations covering: oil theft, money that ought to accrue to stock of foreign reserves, unbudgeted oil subsidy payments, customs duty waivers, leakages through the self-financing government parastatals, unremitted sums by NNPC, etc.
I concluded that section of my article by noting that: “I have a long list but let me wait for now. I do not want to talk about other ‘black pots’ that impinge on national security. My estimate, Madam, is that probably more than N30 trillion has either been stolen or lost or unaccounted for or simply mismanaged under your watchful eyes in the past four years”.
It is evident that the monies I referred to are “off-budget”. These are monies that did not make it to the budget. I find it funny that the Government deliberately avoided the issues raised above but instead has sought to divert attention by focusing on the “federal budget”.
Let me state for the record that I believe that the amount of resources that are either stolen from the economy or out-rightly mismanaged by government far exceeds the federal budget per annum.
Ours is about a N100 trillion economy, and I will be shocked if the government pretends that it does not know that currently about 10% of the GDP falls into a ‘black hole’ on annual basis.
We have not added figures based on counterfactual analysis such as the cost to the aggregate economy of bad or misguided economic policy. For example, in today’s Thisday newspaper, a headline news reports that “Aliko Dangote, Africa’s Richest Man, Loses $7.8 Billion as Naira, Stocks Plunge” while reporting that “In dollar terms, the devaluation has knocked more than $40 billion off the value of Nigeria’s economy”. Of course, most people predicted that oil prices would soon fall but we were caught unprepared, and today, the parallel market exchange rate is N225 to the dollar.
Thus, the kind of analysis in today’s Thisday is just one little example of the kind of collateral damages–‘costs’ or ‘losses’– that mismanagement foists on the system. To repeat, my article did not focus on the federal budget: the mismanagement of the consumption budget and its unprecedented debt accumulation (with low value-for-money expenditures) are entirely different matters.
3. What I found particularly disconcerting as a Nigerian from the comments I read is the fixation to validation from the World Bank. According to Mr. President, “we asked the Minister how her colleagues at the World Bank saw the accusation”. I shook my head in disbelief. It is instructive that no one asked what Nigerians thought or ‘how Nigerians saw it’ but rather what was important to government was the impression of the World Bank. If this is the mind-set of our leaders, then ordinary citizens have real cause to worry.
Well, I have read several editorial comments of Nigerian media and they do not agree with the ‘impression’ of the World Bank official. I read a similar comment by a high government official stating that World Bank officials and CNN had told them that government was doing well and therefore who else could question them.
But neither the World Bank nor CNN conducts comprehensive independent surveys on the economy— they comment based on the data they are given— and their subjective “opinions” cannot substitute for hard facts.
The World Bank is not a statistical agency. I can provide a long list of countries that World Bank reports praised as ‘star performers’ and they slumped into deep crisis almost immediately after. Check out the World Bank and IMF reports on the US and other countries’ economies shortly before the unprecedented global financial and economic crisis in fifty years (the Great Recession of 2008/09).
Actually for many countries once they start getting such ‘praises’, then perceptive officials begin to worry. Nigeria is probably the only country where its government officials quote the World Bank while ignoring data from its own statistical agency!
A serious concern is that while government relies on external validation (opinion) as ‘proof’ of its performance, it is selective in the process—accepting the positive ones and disparaging the negative ones. Our recent exchanges illustrate the point. In my first article (26th January): “Buhari Vs Jonathan: Beyond the Elections”, I argued that “the economy seems to be on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and government largely as a constraint.
There are no big ideas, and it is difficult to see where economic policy is headed to. My thesis is that the Nigerian economy, if properly managed, should have been growing at an annual rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and unemployment should have fallen dramatically over the last five years”. No one has credibly challenged the above, except what the Financial Times of London described as a “furious response by the Minister”. But, the influential Economist Magazine of London and New York Times agreed with us. According to the Economist editorial (7th February, 2015):
“… as Africa’s biggest economy stages its most important election since the restoration of civilian rule in 1999, and perhaps since the civil war four decades ago, Nigerians must pick between the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, who has proved an utter failure, and the opposition leader, Muhammadu Buhari….
The single bright spot of his rule has been Nigeria’s economy, one of the world’s fastest-growing. Yet that is largely despite the government rather than because of it, and falling oil prices will temper the boom. The prosperity has not been broadly shared: under Mr Jonathan poverty has increased. Nigerians typically die eight years younger than their poorer neighbours in nearby Ghana”. I gave the Government an “F” grade on economic management, and the Economist described its performance as “utter failure”.
The Economist also basically agreed with me that the re-basing of the economy and its observed ‘growth’ have nothing to do with government policy. Again, government has not credibly challenged the above or is the Economist’s view also ‘all political ’? Government simply waved it off. My point is that if Government has to rely on the “impressions” of external bodies, then it should be consistent and comprehensive.
4. In conclusion, let me re-state that I firmly stand by my earlier statements. These are weighty statements which I weighed carefully before issuing. I appreciate that this is an election time and so attempts would be made to trivialize, or either play politics with, or divert attention from, them. In a serious society, we should have had a good debate on these matters as they could provide some of the building blocks in trying to pick the pieces after the elections.
Part of our citizen duty in a democracy is to raise such issues and demand for answers. In the meantime, I grant that our leaders are busy with campaigns but these issues won’t go away until we have a transparent resolution. Be assured that after the elections, we will be back with even more questions!
Nigerisa’s Vice President Kashim Shettima
By Modupe Asudo
The 2026 edition of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) Summit got underway in Lagos on Monday with regulatory agencies, project promoters, and financial institutions focused on deepening intra-Africa trade, a unified code of standards for professional qualifications and manufactured goods, and expansion of the frontiers of technological development and innovation.
Critical questions addressed include how AfCFTA’s 1.4 billion population and $3.4 trillion economy could achieve “a strategic shift from fragmented economies towards a globally competitive supply chain system”; how Africa could leverage its vast mineral resources, including copper, iron ore, petrochemical, for domestic production of hardware such as Christmas tree (an assembly of valves, fittings on top of a wellhead to control oil production), and how, hypothetically, Tema Shipyard in Ghana could be designated the vessel construction, assembly and repairs hub for Africa.
Related questions were how cables manufactured in Nigeria, hypothetically, could benefit from favourable trade terms in Angola; what compliance requirements a sacrificial anode producer in Nigeria would have to meet in regard to the rule of origin requirement to export anodes to Algeria for protection and longevity of pipelines, storage tanks, offshore platforms, etc., and what other support levers would be required to achieve energy security for Africa besides expanded refining capabilities in Dangote Refinery, laying of continental gas transmission pipelines, and establishment of industrial parks and other support infrastructure.
In a keynote address at the event, the Executive Secretary of the NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, represented by the Director, Corporate Services, Dr. Abdulmalik Halilu, disclosed that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry embraced AfCFTA and developed a framework for domesticating the policy in 2022.
According to him, implementing AfCFTA in the industry was anchored on three broad pillars, namely, Opportunities Identification, Capacity Development, and Capacity Exportation. In regard to opportunities, he said Nigeria’s strength lies in formidable supply chain in oil field services, refining capacity, oil field logistics base, gas supply pipelines, and a pool of qualified oil field technical workforce.
On capacity development, he pointed out that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, through the local content law, has developed capabilities in the oil and gas value chain spanning marine vessel asset ownership, fabrication, assembly and installation of production systems, including Christmas trees, pressure vessels, and pumps.
What remains unresolved, described by the Executive Secretary as “the next frontier and the reason for convening the Summit,” is capacity exportation. He posited for consideration a unified work permit and visa that would enable, say, “a welder in Senegal to be engaged in Arlec Engineering Works, Johannesburg, South Africa, for fabrication of heat exchangers, storage tanks, pressure tanks, pressure vessels, etc.”
In examining the importance of achieving continental economic integration, Engr. Ogbe explained that strong regional supply chains would shift Africa from exporting raw materials to producing high-value goods. For pathways to integration, he listed regional value chains, infrastructure connectivity, regulatory harmonization, industrial clusters, and small and medium scale enterprises (SME) inclusion.
He assured industry stakeholders and participants maximum support by the NCDMB.
By Modupe Asudo
The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board has outlined a practical framework for positioning Nigeria’s energy sector to access the African Continental Free Trade Area, following a strategic webinar focused on meeting rules-of-origin requirements for continental trade.
The Board held a pre-conference webinar on Wednesday ahead of the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit scheduled for Monday, February 9, 2026.
The engagement was attended by stakeholders from the oil and gas, power and renewable energy sectors, and they addressed how Nigerian products and services can qualify for preferential market access across 54 African countries with a combined gross domestic product of $3.4tn and a population of about 1.4 billion people.
Entitled ‘Meeting AfCFTA Origin Requirements in Energy Trade’, the webinar focussed on one of the major barriers facing Nigerian exporters under AfCFTA — structuring production and operations to meet origin requirements that determine eligibility for duty-free and preferential trade.
The initiative was supported by the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, and the Acting Director of Planning, Research and Statistics, Mr. Ene Ette, as part of preparations for the forthcoming Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, with the theme ‘Unlocking Africa’s Energy Future through AfCFTA: Trade, Innovation and Regional Integration’.
Speaking during the session, a communications analyst, Joseph Nwokedi, representing the Acting National Coordinator of Nigeria’s AfCFTA Coordination Office, Mrs Patience Okala, stressed the central role of energy in Africa’s economic integration under AfCFTA.
He urged Nigerian companies to shift their focus from Nigeria’s domestic market of about 200m people to the wider continental market of 1.4bn consumers.
“Without energy, there’s no industrialisation. Without energy, regional value chains remain aspirational,” Nwokedi said. “With AfCFTA, energy transforms from a domestic infrastructure issue into a tradable, investable and exportable sector within an integrated African market.”
He noted that even one per cent penetration of the African market translates to about 14m consumers, underscoring the scale of opportunity available to Nigerian energy firms.
The webinar identified four key pathways through which Nigeria’s energy sector can participate in AfCFTA-enabled trade. First, Nigeria’s Electricity Act of 2023 allows independent power producers to supply electricity directly to industrial clusters and export processing zones, positioning power generation as a foundation for trade-ready manufacturing.
Second, the country has submitted commitments under AfCFTA that enable professionals such as engineers, electricians, geophysicists and energy auditors to export services across Africa, subject to mutual recognition of qualifications.
Third, refined petroleum products, gas derivatives, electricity and renewable energy components can be traded across borders under preferential tariffs, provided they meet AfCFTA rules of origin.
Fourth, AfCFTA’s investment protocol, combined with recent domestic reforms, including the Presidential Directives on Investment Incentives for 2024–2025, strengthens Nigeria’s credibility for attracting cross-border investments in power generation, transmission, renewable energy and storage infrastructure.
Delivering a technical presentation, Assistant Comptroller of Customs, Burhan Sulaiman, explained that AfCFTA would eliminate tariffs on 90 per cent of goods traded within the bloc over five to 10 years, with an additional seven per cent liberalised over 13 years. However, he stressed that these benefits were conditional on meeting origin requirements.
“Companies lose benefits because origin was treated as an afterthought,” Sulaiman said. “You must build in origin compliance from the beginning, not while already running your project. Origin determines whether you export duty-free or pay full tariffs.”
He clarified that origin is determined by where economic production takes place, not by company ownership or registration. Foreign-owned companies producing in Nigeria can export as Nigerian origin, while Nigerian companies importing finished goods cannot claim AfCFTA preferences.
Sulaiman explained that products qualify for preferential access through two routes. “Wholly obtained” goods are entirely produced within AfCFTA member states, such as crude oil and natural gas extracted in Nigeria, as well as locally generated electricity regardless of fuel source.
The second route, “substantial transformation”, applies where foreign inputs are used and requires compliance with one of three tests: a change in tariff classification; a value-addition threshold limiting foreign content to between 30 and 60 per cent of ex-works price; or completion of specific prescribed processes such as distillation, cracking or reforming for petroleum products.
He provided sector-specific guidance, noting that in oil and gas, locally extracted crude and gas qualify, just as refined petroleum products that meet processing requirements. However, simple blending, basic distillation operations and modular refineries using imported crude without substantial transformation do not qualify.
In the power sector, he explained, locally generated electricity and regionally manufactured equipment with deep component transformation qualify, while installation-only activities, imported turbines, transformers and switchgear mounting do not.
“For renewables, regional solar cell and battery cell manufacturing with deep component processing qualify,” he said, adding that panel installation alone, simple module assembly and packaging imported batteries do not meet the thresholds.
Sulaiman warned that without regional manufacturing accumulation, power equipment exports fail origin tests.
According to him, the Nigeria Customs Service applies a five-step verification process for origin claims, including confirming accurate HS codes, reviewing production records, testing for minimal operations, verifying African input origins and ensuring consistency across certificates, production records and cost documentation.
“Weak documentation kills origin claims. Even genuinely originating products can be denied if documentation is incomplete or inaccurate,” he noted.
Both speakers emphasised that origin compliance should be treated as a core business strategy rather than a regulatory formality.
“Origin is not paperwork; it is strategy,” Sulaiman said. “It shapes where you locate facilities, how you source inputs, and where you sign regional contracts. Treat it as strategic from day one.”
Nwokedi urged Nigerian firms to act early. “AfCFTA is happening now. Early movers will shape supply chains, standards and partnerships. Are you going to lead, or simply follow?”
Officials also provided updates on AfCFTA implementation, noting that 92 per cent of rules of origin had been agreed, with negotiations ongoing in the textiles and automotive sectors.
An online dispute resolution mechanism has been established to coordinate Customs authorities, standards bodies and complainants.
Nigeria has deployed a fully operational electronic certification system for paperless trade, while Nigerian Customs is introducing risk-management frameworks that could allow exporter self-certification on commercial invoices.
Following a five-year implementation review led by the Minister of Industry and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, government sensitisation efforts have intensified through partnerships with the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture; Women’s Chambers of Commerce; zonal outreach programmes and ‘P3 engagements’ involving the press, private sector and public institutions.
“The government will not trade under AfCFTA — our exporters will,” officials said. “If they win, we win.”
Nigerian Customs also reiterated its open-door policy for pre-export origin verification to help businesses avoid delays and additional costs at the border.
The webinar highlighted Nigeria’s potential as a regional energy and transition-fuel hub, building on frameworks such as the West African Power Pool to support cross-border electricity trade.
Key recommendations included structuring projects for origin compliance from inception, forming regional joint ventures, aligning with continental standards and leveraging AfCFTA service commitments to export Nigerian energy expertise.
The session ended with confirmation that the webinar was a technical precursor to the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, which will convene policymakers, industry leaders and trade experts to develop strategies for maximising Africa’s energy potential under the AfCFTA framework.
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