Business
Yuan’s Decline Triggers Fears on Leveraged Bets
BEIJING – The sudden slide of the Chinese currency over the last week has raised fears that the yuan is nearing levels that could trigger an unwinding of billions of dollars in highly leveraged bets on the currency’s appreciation.
Traders and strategists say a portion of the yuan’s recent decline can be attributed to investors looking to get out of trades before losses soar.Daily trading volume in the yuan has exploded recently, tripling to $120 billion a day since 2010, when China allowed trading in its tightly controlled currency. The yuan is now the ninth-most traded currency in the world, according to the Bank for International Settlements, rising from 17th two years ago.
In the past year, trading in derivatives tied to the currency have soared as investors bet on a continued rise in the yuan. According to Deutsche Bank, approximately $250 billion worth of these derivative contracts were traded in 2013, the first year these products took off. Already in 2014, between $80 billion and $100 billion have been traded, the bank says.
The currency, which is also known as the renminbi, is up 33% since 2005. And because the currency is tightly controlled by the Chinese government, volatility is among the lowest in Asia, making the bet seem even less risky.
On Tuesday, the offshore yuan hit 6.1115 against the greenback, sharply up from 6.0984 the day before. Earlier in the day, the currency touched an intraday peak of 6.1250, its highest since it reached 6.1272 on Aug. 22 and the yuan’s biggest daily drop since Jan 28, 2011. China’s stock market suffered its biggest fall in five months, dropping 2.1%, putting its overall decline at 3.5% since the beginning of the year.
Individual investors and small- and medium-size businesses were among the biggest buyers of options that would profit from appreciation in the yuan, currency analysts say. They bought structured investment products that magnified gains but could lead to big losses if the yuan fell below certain levels. The rising yuan coupled with higher interest rates inside China led even more investors to buy yuan, pushing the currency higher.Ju Wang, senior Asian currency strategist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said losses on these products were small so far, but if investors believed they would grow significantly if the currency continued to depreciate, “they might take a mark-to-market loss and unwind contracts. So it all depends on expectations.”
Ms. Wang said that small- and medium-size Chinese exporters have been big buyers of derivatives because they allowed them to hedge against the rising yuan, which makes their goods more expensive to sell overseas and their revenues, which come in foreign currencies, smaller. In many cases, Ms. Wang said, the businesses are losing money in their operations but make profits because of the hedges, which generate a monthly income.
Greg Yu, the Asia ex-Japan head of structuring and solutions group at J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong, said wealthy clients of private banks also bought these products, mostly in Hong Kong, the biggest market for trading in the yuan, and Taiwan. Products designed to profit from the rising yuan are widely advertised by banks in Hong Kong, where bank deposits held in yuan are up by 50% in the last 18 months to 900 billion yuan.
The derivatives that underlie these products are based on the so-called offshore yuan, which trades in Hong Kong and isn’t subject to the strict controls on movements by China’s central bank for yuan that trade in the mainland. While the offshore yuan trades freely, it is broadly tied to the yuan price inside China.
The most popular among the derivative products tied to the yuan is the ‘target redemption forward.” The product is a leveraged bet that pays out every month that the currency keeps rising. But when it falls to a specific level, losses begin to mount quickly.Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and rates at Morgan Stanley, says that these contracts vary widely in value and in length. He estimates that banks have sold these target redemption-forward products with notional value totaling $350 billion since the beginning of 2013.
He says that if you take the $350 billion notional outstanding and assume the average contract has a year left, then once the yuan passes a specific threshold versus the dollar, every decline of 0.1 yuan against the dollar, would cost buyers approximately $500 million a month. That means roughly $6 billion in losses. The contracts are opaque so there is no way to know exactly what price the yuan needs to hit for the losses to begin, but Mr. Kendrick says a reasonable estimate is from 6.15 to 6.35 yuan to the dollar.
Mr. Kendrick says he believes the Chinese currency’s move will be contained but “we do acknowledge the risk of a volatile move higher in the cross, especially given the large amount of structured product traded over the past few years.”
Greg Matwejev, director of FX hedge-fund sales at brokerage firm Newedge Group SA in Hong Kong, said most hedge funds in the region were betting on a stronger yuan as well. “It was like free money,” he said. But the fast move downward forced them to sell quickly. “There is still a lot more pain before this trade shows signs of stabilizing. Very few funds are contrarian on this trade and all are seeing red at the moment,” he said.
He said if the yuan falls further, investors will be forced to sell their yuan and buy U.S. dollars, adding that if the currency moves beyond today’s trading levels of 6.12, it “will set off more panic U.S. dollar buying.”
– WALLSTREET JOURNAL
Business
How Family-Owned Businesses Drive Global Economic Success – Halima Dangote
Family-owned businesses (FOBs) can continue to drive economic success, create value for shareholders, and positively impact their communities worldwide by staying true to their core values and adopting strategic practices that prioritise long-term growth, efficiency, and resilience.
This was part of the submission made by the Group Executive Director of Dangote Industries Limited, Halima Aliko-Dangote, during the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Bangkok, Thailand.
Halima, who is also the Executive Director, Family Office, spoke at the panel session on Family Business: Looking at the Next Frontier, opined that family-owned businesses have demonstrated exceptional resilience, navigating challenges and thriving over multiple decades.
Other speakers include the Managing Director and CEO of Worldwide Hotels, Carolyn Choo; the Managing Director of Damen Yachting, Rose Damen, a third-generation family shareholder of Damen Shipyards Group; and Co-Chairman of B.GRIMM Pharma, President of B. Grimm Joint Venture, and Board Member of B. Grimm Power, Caroline Link.
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According to her, success in family-owned businesses starts with shared values, goals, governance policies and alignment adding that reputation is part of ‘family capital’.
She maintained that governance structure, adherence to core values, customer satisfaction, optimization of shareholder value, meritocracy, integrity, leadership, brand equity, diversification/growth, philanthropy and preserving generational wealth play key roles to the success of our businesses.
Halima revealed that Dangote Group’s governance policies do not allow board and management to operate in silos as each business unit has at least three independent directors who offer a holistic view.
On other factors of success for Dangote Group, Halima emphasized, “We family-owned businesses have to stick to our tradition of asset rich-cash moderate or as my father will correct me, asset rich-cash poor. We as Dangote perpetuate a profitable business with strong values and strong governance structure. We make money while building our nation by contributing heavily to the global economy, creating massive jobs, thinking of our great grand kids and contributing excessively to humanity.”
Highlighting the significant contribution of FOBs to the global economy, Halima noted that studies by Mckinsey showed that they account for more than 70% of global GDP, generate annual turnovers of between $60 trillion and $70 trillion, and provide around 60% of global employment.
She stressed the crucial role these businesses play in creating jobs, sustaining communities, and driving development in sectors such as manufacturing, education, healthcare, and infrastructure across the world.
“Family-owned businesses (FOBs) have proven to be resilient, weathering challenges and thriving across multiple decades. Despite facing external pressures, many FOBs not only survive but also grow, contributing significantly to the global economy in ways that are often underestimated or overlooked,” she said.
She also pointed out that family-owned businesses often employ two key approaches in preparing the next generation for leadership roles: internal and external capacity building. Regarding internal capacity building, Halima explained that many families create internship programmes for young family members interested in taking over the business or assuming leadership positions.
“In Nigeria, we train the next generation so they can grow organically to leadership roles in family businesses. My dad’s approach is for you to start from ground up knowing you will get to leadership role if you work hard and do your job right. These experiences make it easier for you to learn the ropes and be prepared for leadership role in the future,” she pointed out.
On external capacity building, Halima discussed the practice of sending younger generations to work in non-family businesses. This approach enables them to acquire new skills, learn better processes, and gain diverse perspectives that can benefit the family business in the long run.
Halima revealed that she started her career as an Analyst at KPMG before joining Dangote Industries Limited.
The approach, she explained “removes the familiarity tag as the young generation got employed as other people and supervised to monitor their performance. This has been a common avenue business families have chosen to pursue for many years, having their next generation spend three to five years working outside the family business before eventually joining with a new set of skills and business knowledge.”
Addressing the challenges of succession planning, Halima emphasised the importance of involving the younger generation in the business early on.
She suggested that this creates a space for open communication, where the next generation can share their thoughts, ideas, and aspirations, while the senior generation provides critical information to help the next leaders make informed decisions.
She stressed the need for a balance between tradition and innovation in family-owned businesses. While tradition provides continuity and stability, she noted that innovation is vital to staying relevant and competitive in the modern marketplace.
“Successful family businesses recognise the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences, technological advancements, and market trends. Family businesses often have a wealth of experience and deep-rooted traditions. They can also benefit from external expertise and fresh perspectives,” she concluded.
Business
Shell LiveWIRE Initiative Empowers 9,000 Niger Delta Youths With Entrepreneurial Skills
A total of 9,000 youths in the Niger Delta have acquired entrepreneurial skills under the LiveWIRE programme of The Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) since it was introduced in 2003 as part of efforts to boost employment opportunities among people aged 18 – 35 years.
It was gathered that the recipients were trained and supported with start-up grants and business mentorship enabling them to launch their own businesses and become employers of labour.
The latest training, sponsored by the SPDC Joint Venture which includes the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, TotalEnergies and Nigerian Agip Oil Company, involved more than 1,000 young entrepreneurs from host communities in Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states. They graduated last week in Port Harcourt having developed business plans and pitched them to experts as part of the training. 654 trainees were selected as best-performers.
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“We’re delighted at the success of the LiveWIRE programme,” SPDC Director and Head Corporate Relations, Igo Weli, said at the graduation ceremony. “This training is set aside for young people from our host communities which means they can also enjoy the benefits of the programme and join the teeming number of entrepreneurs, several of whom now have the chance to participate in SPDC’s business as vendors. LIveWIRE is one of many ways through which Shell and her partners are powering progress in Nigeria.”
The graduation ceremony featured a technical conference with the theme, “Unlocking Growth: Leveraging Policies to Build an Inclusive Tech Eco System in the Niger Delta.” The keynote speaker, Iyke Kemabonta, and panelists, Soala Jumbo, Davies Awongo, Kalada Briggs, Vivien Ene and Ezieke Amaefula, challenged the beneficiaries to grow their businesses, overcome environmental challenges and enable the Niger Delta to reap the rewards of the programme.
Trainees from the 2023 Regional LiveWIRE programme from Rivers, Delta, Bayelsa, Imo, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Edo states also joined the graduation ceremony. Beneficiaries were inducted into the LiveWIRE Alumni Group by three previous participants who now run their own businesses — Precious Adeho, Queen Esther Bolou-Ebi and Kalada Briggs. The trio encouraged the recipients to use the opportunity as launching pads into international recognition and success.
In a notable achievement, five previous beneficiaries won the LiveWIRE International “Go and Trade Enterprise Linkage Award” which enabled them to embark on trade visits to London, Dubai, Malaysia, and neighboring Ghana. Livewire Nigeria also offers beneficiaries the chance to compete for the Global Shell LiveWIRE Top Ten Innovators Award which comes with huge rewards.
LiveWIRE is Shell’s global enterprise development initiative for small businesses and is active in 18 countries. As at 2023, the programme had trained about 3,400 people and helped create more than 1,200 jobs around the world.
Business
Tinubu Moves To Transform Tragedy To Prosperity With Livestock Investment
Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is of the view that his administration’s renewed focus in driving international and local investments into livestock sector of the agricultural value-chain will end the crisis of farmer-herder clashes, eradicate hunger and poverty in addition to promoting economic prosperity.
President Tinubu said this Thursday in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil at the signing of a Letter of Intent between the Nigerian Government and the JBS S.A, one of the top three largest meat processing companies globally.
“What we are doing right now is that we are solving a problem that afflicted humanity in that part of Africa, clashes between farmers and migrating cows that have caused some life and bloodshed when there is a modern, civilized way to solve those problems and even bring a successful economy out of it.
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“We are trying to turn a situation of tragedy, hopelessness into economic opportunity, see through problems and see the opportunity that is involved in it.”
The Nigerian leader called on the company to see the considerable potentials in what he called the $2.5billion livestock investment opportunities in Nigeria, especially with its huge population and tap into it, given JBS S.A’s globally recognized expertise in the area of guaranteeing food security.
“We’ve heard so much about you in terms of the reputation, and we believe in the partnership we are forging today.
“Food security is extremely important. As we talk right now, there is hunger. However, there is huge hope. And you are one of those hopes that we are looking at.”
President Tinubu told the JBS top executives that Nigeria is ready to do business with them, assuring them of a good return on their investment.
Prior to his visit to Brazil, President had commissioned a team of Nigerian officials and private sector players to take the advantage of the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio to conduct a study tour of Sao Paulo, Brazil and explore the opportunities in livestock development, meat processing, seed development and multiplication for key grains.
In his remarks, the Minister of Livestock Development, Idi Muhktar Mahia, who led the delegation, reported to the President that the team embarked on guided, extended and intensive tours of companies on the scale of their global reach, the integrated nature of their operations as well as the deployment of advanced technology. He added that from their interactions with various companies, JBS S.A. was chosen being the second largest meat processing company in the world with the capacity to process 33,000 cattle daily and over eight million birds daily, using advanced zero-waste practices. The company employs over 200,000 people across its subsidiaries in more than 50 countries in the world including United States, Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia among others.
Wesley Batista, founder and President of the JBS group, said the company is the largest employer of labour in Brazil with over $79 billion dollars revenue already in year 2024.
“We are glad to work with Nigeria to work together to develop the livestock industry there. We think it’s a good opportunity for our business in Nigeria and Africa as we believe Nigeria can be the center of supply of protein to many countries in Africa. We look forward to working with you. We are almost in December and this year is almost gone. We hope to be in Nigeria as soon as possible,” the founder and Chief Executive said.
Other members of the delegation included Minister of State Agriculture and Food Security Hon. Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi, Co-chairman Presidential Livestock Reform Committee, Professor Attahiru Jega, the Secretary of the Committee, Professor Mohammed Kuta Yahya, and the Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian Investment Promotion Council, Aisha Rimi.