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Opinion/Feature

If I were Tinubu 3: Setting a Tinubunomic agenda – Part 1

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#NigeriaDecides: Tinubu Defeats Atiku In Jigawa, Wins 19 Of 27 LGAs

By Segun Adeleye

 

‘When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice: but when the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn.’

 

To say things are tough in Nigeria will be an understatement, with fuel scarcity, naira redesign crisis, bad roads, poor power supply, joblessness among others things that make life miserable for citizens.

 

When COVID-19 hit the world in 2019, there was nothing like it in recent history as people were locked in their homes with little or no food, while government palliative measures in Nigeria to send food to homes failed. It was later discovered that some people hoarded food, waiting for the right time to sell and profit from the mysteries of fellow citizens.

 

Now fast forward to 2023. It was a bigger crisis created by the central bank in an attempt to redesign currencies and withdraw the old ones just few weeks to a national election that will produce new set of leaders that will serve for another four years.

 

As if the central bank got its research wrong that the volume of new currencies to replace the old ones being recalled would not adequately go round, the cash shortage crisis that resulted brought the entire economy to its knees, with small businesses closing down, hunger hitting homes while protests erupted across the country as banks closed down with no cash to disburse and the fear of being attacked.

 

Not a few people believe that the naira redesign crisis is worse than COVID-19 with the perennial fuel scarcity and power outages no longer seen as major contenders for the afflictions of the African most populous country.

 

From the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook for October 2022, Nigeria economy didn’t grow and perform as expected due to structural economic shocks and challenges brought about by the global fall in oil prices, which was a fall-out of the Russia-Ukraine war.

 

Nigeria’s economic potential is said to be constrained by many structural issues, including inadequate infrastructure, tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, obstacles to investment, lack of confidence in currency valuation, and limited foreign exchange capacity.

 

Other similar reports had traced Nigeria’s biggest economic problems to corruption, poor human development, over-dependence on crude oil, crime and terrorism, low export earnings, high rate of unemployment, lack of infrastructure among others.

 

With high inflation which hit 21.91% in February 2023, taking a toll on household’s welfare and high prices said to have pushed an additional 8 million Nigerians into poverty, the country is ranked 103 out of 121 countries in the 2022 Global Hunger Index (GHI), a position that signifies a level of hunger that is serious.

 

World Bank in its 2022 Poverty and Prosperity Report said Nigeria contributed three million people to global extreme poverty, while the country is “home to a large share of the global extreme poor.”

 

This is the economy that the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is going to inherit with unemployment rate of 32.1%, public debt at 36.6% of GDP together with a population of over 200 million, majority of who will try everything possible to escape to other countries where they believe that things can never be this bad.

 

PRODUCTIVITY

 

Nigeria’s national productivity growth rate has been low due to what observers linked to infrastructure deficit, unemployment and youth challenges, constant strike actions, brain drain, corruption, insecurity, poor workers’ attitude to work. Up to 80 percent of workers are said to be employed in sectors with low levels of productivity—agriculture and non-tradable services, which means that the kind of jobs needed to generate income growth and lift many Nigerians out of poverty are not available in large numbers.

 

A major problem facing the economy is the neglect of the manufacturing sector, with the country not producing enough, for both local consumption and export, with statistic showing that non-oil exports as a share of non-oil GDP averaged 1.3 percent while manufactured goods as a share of total exports remained low at 5.2 percent in 2021.

 

The Tinubu administration will be expected to develop an economic agenda with a practical strategy on how to structurally transform the economy, moving labor and economic resources from low productivity sectors to high productivity sectors.

 

To implement policies that will deliver an inclusive and competitive economy, first, it may have to rattle feathers in getting professionals to head all the strategic government agencies which are currently headed by mediocrities. It will definitely create bad blood among those that have seen such jobs as their birthrights, but the assurance of a greater opportunity in an expanded economy that will profit all should assuage any aggrieved interest with entitlement mindset. If the economy is productive and people are earning healthy wages in the private sector, the rush for government jobs and appointments will definitely drop. But under no disguise must any of the strategic government agencies be manned by unqualified persons again.

 

STARTUPS AND JOBS

 

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that unemployment and underemployment rates increased to an all-time high of 56.1 percent in 2020, pushing 133 million Nigerians into multidimensional poverty with economic growth not inclusive as it faced key challenges of lower productivity, weak expansion of sectors with high employment elasticity.

 

Getting the youths to work must be an immediate task for the new government and will be driven by fixing productivity through combinations of policies that cut across some strategic sectors of the economy. With a population of over 200 million, it’s obvious that a weak manufacturing base can only yield foreign exchange shortages, limited number of jobs created to accommodate workforce entrants, and an import bill that can hardly be met by export earnings.

 

Starting with national registrations of all unemployed youths across the country through dedicated local government centers, the policies that will get them engaged should explore opportunities in strategic sectors such as blue economy, energy , digital economy, mining, sport, agriculture and tourism, and get them to seamlessly access the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund approved by the outgoing government to support entrepreneurship for the over 68 million Nigerian youths between ages 18 and 35. This will instantly have impact on getting the youth to start doing business. The new entrepreneurs will need trainings, mentorship to grow and this can be provided by the well established ones including the multinationals which must be mandated to deliberately accommodate them for an agreed period, even if it will be at the expense of subsidy and tax incentives from government.

 

Many startups that need to be encouraged by the coming government are currently springing up in Nigeria, developing technology to fix identified problems in payment systems, insurance, agribusiness, e-commerce among others. The beauty of their emergence is that their concepts are globally acceptable, making them eligible to expand to other countries while attracting foreign exchange and creating new jobs.

 

Very laudable is the latest $600 million Investment in Digital and Creative Enterprises (i-DICE) Programme with funding from the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), the Agence Française de Développement and FG through the Bank of Industry to support young Nigerians ranging from ages 15-35 who are entrepreneurs at the early stages in creative, innovative and technology-enabled ventures.

 

I attended a forum sometime when an expert said that if the government can provide a grant of just $100,000 each for 100 youths, they will be capable of solving the nation’s economic problems in the medium and long term.

 

The incoming government should explore similar initiatives to raise funds to encourage more startups that will be building solutions to solve identified problems that are still numerous in Nigeria because it’s still an underdeveloped economy.

 

OIL AND GAS

 

Even though oil and gas is going out of fashion globally with migration to clean energy, Nigeria will still need all it can get in the short and medium term from oil to industrialise its economy.

 

The President-elect will need the right professionals to run the oil industry. Specifically, there will be a need for a total overhaul of the system. The new NNPC Limited should be made to advertise the positions of its CEO and other top directors to attract the right professionals from all over the world. If a small Nigerian independent energy firm, Seplat Energy Plc with assets which cannot be up to 1% of NNPC can be so profitable to the extent of declaring $951.8 million revenues for 2022, there is no reason why the national oil company which has always been declaring losses should not be making over $100 billion in a year.

 

It is also very important that the government must do everything possible to provide incentives and attract investors for the realization of the Trans Atlantic gas project that will take Nigerian gas through North Africa to market in Europe.

 

There will also be a need to remove fuel subsidy at the early stage of the administration as the commodity is no more available at the subsidized price, couple with the associated scarcity, but government must deliberately develop a scheme to subsidise transportation cost for the indigent people that will be mostly hit by economic hardship. A specialized e-card can be issued for them to access subsidized transportation services for a period of time.

 

While ensuring effective management of the oil and gas assets for the nation to receive commensurate returns, the oil industry must be made to adopt the right energy transition strategy so that the nation will not miss the opportunity to be a leader in clean energy without becoming the dumping ground for foreign technologies in the long term.

 

In extension, the mining sector must receive the necessary attention for it to live up to its potential. Law must be reviewed to end illegal mining which has been the bane of the sector.

 

AGRICULTURE

 

It was not until the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia that it dawned on many that the country of only 43.79 million is the leading food basket of the world. It accounts for 10% of the world wheat market, 15% of the corn market, and 13% of the barley market. With more than 50% of world trade, it is also the main player on the sunflower oil market.

 

Nigeria with a total of 79 million hectares of agricultural land and only 44% being cultivated should naturally be the food basket of Africa. But not only that it’s failing to fulfill this purpose, it’s contending with an annual food import of $20 billion.

 

There are some exportable agricultural products that keep on having growing global demands which Nigeria has the right climate to produce to quickly bridge its foreign exchange gap in few years.

 

A list of items with high global demand that Nigeria can exponentially raise its cultivation and export includes; ginger, cocoa butter, rubber, palm kernel oil, textiles and garments, gallstone, sesame seed, garlic, yam tubers, charcoal, cotton, cassava floor, cashew nuts, honey among other.

 

With over $40 billion earnings from crude oil but mere $10 billion from non-crude in 2021, it’s interesting to note that Nigeria can be positioned to capture a major slice the global sesame oil market which is anticipated to expand to $ 10.7 billion over the 2021-2031 period; cassava starch is projected to reach $66.84 billion by 2026; cashew is estimated to reach $10.5 billion by 2031; ginger is projected to reach $7.53 billion by 2028.

 

The Tinubu government can return to agriculture and make it the number one foreign exchange earner for the country by attracting investments and partnering the state governments based on the agricultural products they are the best at. The farm settlements that the government will promote should be mechanized, modernized with all amenities in the cities such as sporting and recreation centers with cable TV among others to attract youths and help solve unemployment problem.

 

 

*Segun Adeleye is the President/CEO, World Stage Limited; Creator, OELA Music; Author of ‘So Long Too Long Nigeria’ and Founder/Chairman, Segun Adeleye Foundation for Good Leadership in Africa (SAFFGLIA).

Opinion/Feature

Downstream Deregulation: Between Obasanjo’s Half-measures And Tinubu’s Bold Leadership

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By Temitope Ajayi
A video of former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s interview with News Central Television has been trending on social media platforms for the past week. In the interview, the former President, in a veiled reference to the current administration, said Nigeria has a President who came into office without a plan. Yet, the same ‘planless’ president is implementing a bold economic reform programme that Obasanjo initiated and abandoned mid-way.
This intervention is essentially about a tale of two leaders and how they both handled fuel subsidy removal, a very touchy issue every president of Nigeria has avoided since 1973 because of its disruptive nature and potential to precipitate a pushback that may lead to civil unrest. This serious matter in itself can make a difference between a bold and courageous leader from one that is pretentious and hesitant.
It is a fact of history that one of the things former President Obasanjo set out to do, among other reforms his administration embarked upon, was complete deregulation of the downstream oil industry. But hard as he tried, he failed to actualise it. Obasanjo faced so much opposition from organised labour and civil society groups that he abandoned a good policy that would have led to massive economic gains for the country. All he could muster the courage to do was to raise the pump price four times during his two-term tenure.
Twenty years after Obasanjo failed to implement complete downstream deregulation, President Bola Tinubu had the courage of his conviction to implement the policy, redirect the economy, and ensure efficiency in the management of public finance.
Despite his foibles and messianic complex, former President Obasanjo is no doubt a remarkable leader. His administration opened the economy and implemented essential reforms that his immediate successor should have continued with. What most critics find offensive about the former president is how he sees himself as the only saviour God created for Nigeria. As far as he is concerned, no other leader before and after him has been good enough. For context and clarity, it is essential to recall the former president’s position on deregulating the downstream oil sector when he was in charge.
In a national broadcast on October 8, 2003, President Obasanjo expressed his frustration and anger at the Nigeria Labour Congress for its opposition to the deregulation of the downstream sector to the point of accusing labour leaders of sedition thus:
“As you are aware, my government has embarked on fundamental reforms designed to depart from the waste and unproductive exercises of the past and leave lasting legacies for the prosperity and improved welfare and well-being of all Nigerians. Since 1999, we have gradually but steadily embarked on the programme of liberalisation and deregulation of the Nigerian economy to promote efficiency and effectiveness of service delivery. Most Nigerians and certainly all organised key stakeholders in the Nigerian economy, including the Nigeria Labour Congress, have endorsed the deregulation programme of government.
“It is a fitting symbol of our administration’s commitment to the welfare of workers and in an effort to cushion the effects of deregulation that the government provided 80 buses to the NLC in 2002. The transliner buses were delivered to the Congress for management without government interference. It is noteworthy that every step taken to deregulate the downstream oil sector has been dogged by, sometimes, irresponsible opposition by the Labour Congress. The result has been that we took too little steps to achieve no meaningful and satisfactory progress. We have tolerated all of these in the interest of promoting popular dialogue and informed dissent.
“Let me inform Nigerians that when government first came up with the deregulation programme, it was endorsed by the NLC and other stakeholders. In fact, the NLC had requested that we call it a “liberalisation” programme. It was thus more a matter of label than of substance. If we had been successful in implementing the deregulation or liberalisation of the downstream oil sector as earlier agreed by all stakeholders, including labour, we would not have been worrying about the periodic and unsatisfactory price-fixing which has led no where except to frustration. The failure to fully deregulate or liberalise has also cost Nigerians billions of naira which are currently wasted on millions of man-hours in queues at the petrol stations.
“The tens of billions of naira currently being lost in money that could have been used to increase capital spending in the universities, fund agriculture, repair and rehabilitate our roads, invest in education and health, improve security with extra police for security of lives and property.
“Realising that the investment of well over $400 million (excluding pipelines and depots) in the last six years mostly on Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) and repairs had not improved the performance of the refineries significantly, government had decided that it was unwise to put additional money into the repair of the Kaduna and Port Harcourt refineries before privatising them.
“What most Nigerians must know is that the contracts for the Turn Around Maintenance for the Kaduna and Port Harcourt refineries were awarded with 50% of the cost paid upfront before the advent of this administration in 1999. Allow me to add that two of the three refinery locations in the country today, were built by my administration as military head of state. This means that if for no other reason, I should be interested in keeping them working. Already, 18 private firms have been licensed to build refineries but they have been reluctant to go into the industry because of Government’s price control in the sector.
“If only 30% of these firms had been able to establish and operate private refineries, thousands of jobs would have been created and Nigeria would have been in a position to even export refined oil products. All these benefits and more have been denied to Nigerians by the stop-go approach to the deregulation or liberalisation programme, and only a few Nigerians are benefiting from the prevailing government-controlled system. In fact, the NLC’s approach has been counter-productive, and inflicted more pains on Nigerian workers. Each time there is a small increase of three naira or more, transporters have used the opportunity to jerk up transportation cost thereby making the ordinary worker poorer.
“A once-and-for-all total deregulation would have meant a once-and-for-all increase in transport cost and the pump price for petroleum products. Without a doubt, a once-and-for-all total deregulation would have resolved the problem of availability and thus bring down prices for those outside Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt and their environs who have always paid much more than the official posted price. Pump prices arising from the present total deregulation would, in reality, amount to a reduction in prices of majority of Nigerians.”
Interestingly, excerpts from the 2003 national broadcast by President Obasanjo present a contrast between the former leader and President Tinubu. They also showcase two leadership visions. One leader saw the need to fight for the country’s long-term sustainability but chickened out because he lacked the courage to upset the status quo. Two decades later, another leader saw the damage the failure to make the right economic decision had caused the country. He decided to correct it to avert a looming calamity. While former President Obasanjo left the most challenging task of his presidency undone, President Tinubu tackled head-on what has become an existential threat to our collective well-being from his first day in office. He has remained focused on the bigger picture.
President Tinubu recognises the burden of leadership and responsibility he bears on behalf of Nigerians. In discharging this burden, he knew from day one that he would have to make the right but unpopular decisions that would ultimately serve the best interest of the country and her people.
It is certainly not correct to say this president came to the office without a plan. President Tinubu came into the office with a clear plan titled “Renewed Hope 2023: Action Plan for a Better Nigeria.” It was a well-thought-out programme, with which he canvassed for votes across the country and was elected by our people.
In the past 17 months, he has remained faithful to the document as he implements the distilled eight-point agenda.
At the heart of President Tinubu’s economic revitalisation is gas development and expansion of gas pipeline infrastructure to enable Nigeria to compete with Russia in the European markets. In fairness to him, former President Obasanjo himself recently lamented he did not pay adequate attention to gas during his term of office.
Expanding the pool of available talents and human capital through granting of loans to young Nigerians who are the future of the country to enable them acquire tertiary or vocational education is part of the plans that propelled Tinubu into office. Consumer credit initiative that will promote local production and further stimulate the economy is also high on Tinubu’s action plan. To the President’s credit, these two important policy initiatives among several others are being implemented through NELFUND and Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (CrediCorp).
If there is one President of Nigeria that came prepared and well armed with a clear cut plan to reposition the country across sectors for better outcomes, that President, undoubtedly, is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
-Ajayi is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Media and Publicity
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Opinion/Feature

UNCOMMON SCHOLAR, EXCEPTIONAL ADMINISTRATOR: MY TRIBUTE TO PROF. OLOYEDE AT 70

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By President Bola Tinubu

As Professor Ishaq Oloyede turns 70 tomorrow, October 10, I pay a special tribute to this astute administrator, educator, author, and scholar, currently the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) Registrar.

As the former Vice Chancellor of the University of Ilorin, Prof. Oloyede’s invaluable contributions to the nation through academia and public-sector administration have significantly impacted the academic community.

ALSO READ: Tinubu Congratulates Zainab Shinkafi-Bagudu On Her Election As President, UICC

His impactful tenure at the University of Ilorin, during which he introduced landmark ideas and innovations that helped the institution attain enviable heights, is on record.

Through patriotic dedication and commitment to his craft, Prof Oloyede imparted knowledge and character to thousands of students who underwent his teaching during his glorious and impactful academic career.

Indeed, the bedrock of development lies in education. Developing nations, including Nigeria, are in dire need of more scholars like Prof. Oloyede. His selfless sacrifices and innovative approaches to learning and leadership give hope for a brighter future.

Perhaps more remarkable is Prof. Oloyede’s transformative leadership at JAMB. He pioneered and sustained a series of reforms and technological innovations that have made the admission process in Nigeria transparent and credible.

In his eight years of stewardship at the board, thus far, Prof. Oloyede has demonstrated an uncommon commitment to financial integrity and accountability in public service. He has also raised the bar in administration and management.

I am proud of Prof. Oloyede’s accomplishments.

The nation owes the Professor of Islamic Jurisprudence a debt of gratitude for transforming JAMB, traditionally a non-revenue-generating government agency, into a consistent contributor to the national treasury through efficient financial management. His contributions to JAMB are invaluable and greatly appreciated.

On this occasion of his 70th birthday, I join members of the academic community, students, JAMB staff, and well-wishers in celebrating this scholar who, in words and deeds, has also done a lot to propagate the Islamic religion.

I pray that Almighty Allah will continue to honour the distinguished professor with health, wisdom and strength to serve the nation for many more years.

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Opinion/Feature

Clarification On NNPCL Refinery Operations

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By Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri PhD

My attention has been drawn to statements made by Engr. Kamoru Busari, Director of Upstream in the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, who represented me at a recent conference in Lagos. I wish to categorically state that the claim that I directed the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to stop running its own refineries and focus solely on equity participation in other refineries is false. This does not represent my position as Minister overseeing the oil sector, nor does it reflect the stance of the Federal Government.

It is important to clarify that NNPCL is a company governed under the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA), with a functional board and management. The Ministry of Petroleum Resources does not control or run NNPCL, as it operates independently like any corporate entity.

ALSO READ: NNPC/Seplat JV’s “Eye Can See” Programme Restores Vision, Hope In Imo

The oil and gas sector is fully deregulated, and the Nigerian government remains committed to promoting in-country refining. We encourage companies, including NNPCL, to operate independently, following global best practices. While we provide strategic guidance, we do not interfere directly in the operations of these companies.

I reaffirm our commitment to supporting the growth and independence of NNPCL, ensuring that its operations are in line with international standards for efficiency and transparency and profitability.

Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri PhD, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Oil), wrote from Abuja, Nigeria

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