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Oil price slump: E&P companies share price dips

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By Kunle Kalejaye 

The dwindling crude oil may have affected some Exploration and Production, E&P companies share price listed on Nigerian Stock Exchange, NSE.
Seplat, the only E&P company listed on NSE had it share price dropped from N576 to N333.90 on February 6th, 2015.
The share price of other oil companies listed on NSE‎ operating in the midstream and downstream of oil and gas industry according to capital market analysts may not be affected by crude oil price fall.
An analyst who spoke with this reporter explained that ‎the reason why share price of downstream companies is not affected by crude oil price drop is due largely because the sector is regulated.
These companies listed on NSE include BECOPETRO, CONOIL, ETERNA, FORTE OIL, MOBIL, MRS, OANDO and TOTAL while JAPAUL is an oil and gas servicing company.
However, during this period of election tension, share price of these companies might suffer lose as indication revealed that the NSE which is dominated by foreign investment have withdrawn their money, awaiting the out come of the general election.
‎Meanwhile, some projects in the country’s petroleum industry also stand the risk of either total cancellation or abandoned as a result of falling crude oil price.
A source in the Department of Petroleum Resources, DPR explained to this reporter in confidence that the country’s  petroleum sector ‎might witness a ‘stand-still’ of project execution during this period of price instability and political upheavals.
The source also pointed to the negative impact price slump has on the country’s 2015 budget, forcing her to slash it by half.
Although the federal government’s benchmark oil price for this year’s budget is $65 a barrel, a figure the finance minister says will not change despite crude falling as low as $45 a barrel in January.
‎It was also gathered that N62.44 allocated to build refinery in the downstream sector to refine crude oil might be stalled.
Also N48.1 million for the survey in oil and gas production and utilisation in the country also face similar fate.
Earlier on, Group Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC said a four  projects in the country that are expected to go through FID by year end could face delay.
The ‎affected projects in Nigeria are three in deep water, and one in mid-water .
He explained that cancelling these projects would eliminate $116 billion in capital expenditure by the year end of the decade.
As at the time of filing in this report, the names and owners of these projects are yet to be known
In another development American energy giant Chevron announced it will discontinue its shale gas project in Poland as it no longer makes business sense. 
 
The company previously canceled drilling projects in the Arctic and in Ukraine.
 
‎This is also coming days after the company slashed $5 billion from its investment budget and shut down its share buyback program as the crude price plunge continued to savage budgets of oil industry powerhouses.
Chevron said it would spend $35 billion on exploration and production projects, 13 percent less than last year, in response to the nearly 60 percent fall of the oil price since the middle of 2014 due to a global glut.
 
Explaining why the company discontinued it’s shale project in Poland Chevron said “the opportunities here no longer compete favorably with other opportunities in Chevron’s global portfolio.
 

Not only Chevron’s Polish unit has changed mind about the perspectives of shale drilling, Reuters points out.

Privately owned majors such as Exxon Mobil and Total did the same even earlier, as well as a number of smaller players of the energy market, considering downgraded estimates of shale gas reserves.

The energy prices nosedive in the end of 2014 forced international energy giants to exit ambitious projects they had been heavily investing into during the boom years.

ConocoPhillips, Husky Energy, Marathon Oil, Whitecap Resources and others have announced significant budget cuts for 2015.

In particular, Chevron discontinued several projects in recent months.

Chevron Canada Ltd suspended its oil drilling project in Beaufort Sea in the Arctic for an indefinite period due to economic uncertainty.
 
Also in December Chevron unilaterally exited the Oleska shale gas field project in Ukraine’s western Lvov Region because of the fall in oil and gas prices.
 

Chevron’s shale gas project in Romania is also in doubt. In November, the country’s prime minister, Victor Ponta, said that it looks like Romania “does not have shale gas.”

US rig count plunges

In the meantime the situation with shale drilling within the US mirrors the general negative trend worldwide with oil prices dropping more than 50 percent in less than six months.

According to the data presented by Baker Hughes oilfield service company, the number of drilling rigs in the US has sharply decreased since January 2014.

In a matter of just one week (January 23-30) the number of rigs operating within the US has fallen by 90 units, a record since Hughes initiated its monthly international rig count in 1975.

The year-on-year reduction of operating drilling rigs in the US has been 242 units, a cut of more than 13 percent.

According to Goldman Sachs analysis, the current US rig count drop is faster and larger than in any other bear market.
 
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NNPC Discovers Over 4,800 Illegal Pipeline Connections

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited  has revealed the detection of more than 4,800 unauthorized connections on oil pipelines within the country, painting a troubling image of the nation’s primary source of revenue.

Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, communicated this information to the Senate Committee on Appropriations last Friday.

He said, “We have over 4,800 illegal connections on our pipelines. That means in some lines, within 100 kilometres of pipelines, you have as much as 300 insertions.

“Therefore, even when you produce the oil, you cannot deliver them at the required pressure and therefore the volume will also be less.”

As per the NNPC Ltd chief, individuals from various regions enter the Niger Delta, inserting unauthorized connections on pipelines in Nigeria’s oil-producing area.

This recent revelation follows a prior discovery of 295 illegal connections to the pipelines by the firm a year ago, underscoring the escalating issue of crude oil theft in Nigeria.

Two years earlier, Kyari had highlighted the country’s daily loss of 200,000 barrels of oil, amounting to $13 million due to theft and vandalism.

He further stated “We have two sets of losses, one coming from our products and the other coming from crude oil. In terms of crude losses, it is still going on. On the average, we are losing 200,000 barrels of crude every day.”

After the discovery, Nigeria’s security forces pledged to enhance security around the country’s pipelines.

To bolster this, the Federal Government granted a multi-billion naira pipelines surveillance contract to Tantita Security Services, headed by former militant leader Government Ekpemepulo, also known as Tompolo.

Despite facing criticism for this decision, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum, remains convinced that it was the appropriate course of action.

In August, following a tour of oil facilities in the Niger Delta, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri expressed gratitude to Tantita, commissioned by NNPC Ltd, for their ongoing work.

He also hinted at plans for further extensive endeavors in the future.

In 2021, after extensive debate and delays, the Petroleum Industry Bill was finally passed to attract increased foreign investment into the oil sector through amendments to regulations, royalties, and taxes.

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Dangote Refinery Set To Begin Fuel Production With First Crude Arrival

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Nigeria’s colossal $19 billion Dangote Refinery, after encountering several setbacks, is on the verge of kickstarting fuel production.

This achievement is heralded by the arrival of the first crude shipment, transported by the OTIS tanker carrying 950,000 barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude.

S&P Global, citing industry sources and tanker tracking data on spglobal.com, reported the tanker’s departure on December 6, en route to Lekki, the nearest land port to Dangote’s offshore crude receiving terminal.

Scheduled to reach its destination around 8 PM on December 7, the arrival of this shipment signifies the commencement of crude supplies for the refinery’s operations.

Chartered by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), the Suezmax tanker is an emblem of the initial crude supply to Dangote’s cutting-edge refinery, as disclosed by a West African oil trader familiar with the matter in the S&P report.

Even though the refinery was officially completed in May, the absence of domestic crude feedstock had hindered oil product manufacturing.

To address this, the NNPC, holding a 20% stake in the refinery, struck an agreement to provide 6 million barrels of crude oil as feedstock to the Dangote refinery in December.

This move aims to jumpstart operations and overcome the previous impediments.

Agbami, operated by Chevron, holds a prominent position among Nigeria’s major deepwater developments, producing around 100,000 barrels per day in the central Niger Delta.

Known for its light sweet crude qualities, with a specific gravity of 47.9 API and a low sulfur content of 0.04%, Agbami produces substantial amounts of naphtha and kerosene.

NNPC has chartered additional shipments from different Nigerian offshore fields to the refinery, marking the start of a sequence of planned crude supplies for the month, as mentioned by the oil trader.

Located on the outskirts of Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, the Dangote Refinery encountered repeated delays since its 2013 announcement, despite significant installation progress in 2019.

The refinery, designed to handle multiple crudes simultaneously, targets three Nigerian crude grades—Escravos, Bonny Light, and Forcados. When operating at full capacity, it aims to produce 327,000 barrels per day (b/d) of gasoline, 244,000 b/d of gasoil/diesel, 56,000 b/d of jet fuel/kerosene, and 290,000 metric tons per year of propane/LPG.

Dangote’s operations starting signify Nigeria’s hopes to lessen its reliance on gasoline imports, addressing the deficiencies of its existing refineries undergoing repairs. This shift is poised to reshape Nigeria’s oil industry, potentially leading to gasoline self-sufficiency by the 2040s.

Dangote officials anticipate an initial output of 370,000 barrels per day (b/d), emphasizing jet fuel and diesel production.

Industry analysts, however, project the refinery to reach its full operational capacity by mid-2025, although potential delays remain a looming concern.

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NNPCL Sets Dec 2024 Terminal Date For Fuel Importation

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has announced intentions to cease importing refined petroleum products by December 2024, anticipating full operational functionality for all national refineries by that time.

Group CEO, NNPC Ltd, Mele Kyari, shared this at a meeting with Speaker Tajudeen Abbas of the House of Representatives, who advocated for the privatisation of Nigeria’s refineries on Thursday.

Projections indicated the national oil firm’s revenue could climb to N4.5 trillion by the conclusion of 2023. Moreover, the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refining Company, managed by NNPCL, was slated for completion by December of the current year.

Meanwhile, Oil marketers verified on Thursday that the Port Harcourt refinery is set for operations, potentially starting in January 2024. They emphasized that once operational, this refinery could notably reduce the prices of refined petroleum products.

During the meeting in Abuja, Kyari asserted Nigeria’s intention to cease importing refined petroleum products by 2024, envisioning the country’s emergence as a net exporter of these commodities within the same year.

He outlined the plans for launching operations at the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.

Kyari reiterated that all refineries would operate at full capacity, ultimately paving the way for Nigeria to transition into a net exporter of petroleum products by the conclusion of 2024.

He attributed the inactivity of Nigeria’s refineries over the years to the petroleum subsidy, emphasizing that the removal of this subsidy was drawing significant private-sector investments into the sector.

Kyari said “I can confirm to you that by the end of December this year, we will start the Port Harcourt refinery; early in the first quarter of 2024, we will start the Warri refinery and by the end of 2024, Kaduna refinery will come into operation.

“This is the commitment we are giving today and you can hold us accountable for this. In 2024, many of the initiatives including the rehabilitation of our refineries and also the efforts of small-scale refineries, and the upcoming Dangote refinery, will make Nigeria a net exporter of petroleum products in 2024.

“We will no longer be talking about fuel importation by the end of 2024. I am very optimistic that this will crystallise.

Kyari promised that by the conclusion of 2023, the government’s anticipated revenue from the company would reach N4.5 trillion, emphasizing NNPCL’s adherence to the Petroleum Industry Act and its commitment to delivering value to shareholders.

Recall that in October 2023, it was reported that Nigeria’s monthly spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol, had reached approximately N843 billion due to NNPCL’s cessation of oil swaps.

In July of this year, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that during the post-deregulation period, spanning June 1 to June 28, 2023, the country’s total petrol consumption amounted to 1.36 billion litres, with an average daily consumption of 48.43 million litres.

The average ex-depot price of petrol, sourced solely from NNPCL as the importer, stands at about N580 per litre.

However, both NNPCL and oil marketers declared on Thursday that this substantial oil import expenditure would soon diminish.

They anticipated a drop once the Port Harcourt refinery commences production of refined petroleum products from January 2024, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

 

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