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Post-war Rate Dilemma, Inflation, Lower Oil Prices Rattle CBN

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to face one of its most dicey policy decisions in months with easing global oil prices following the United States-Iran ceasefire being made worse by persistent domestic inflationary pressures, a report from SBM Intelligence said on Wednesday.

The ceasefire agreement, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption, triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices, with Brent crude falling from a peak of about $114 per barrel to nearly $101 per barrel.

The development has eased fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions and raised expectations of moderation in fuel and transport costs across oil-importing economies.

For Nigeria, however, the policy implications are far more complex, the SBM report titled; ‘The Persian Trap Aftermath: Has West Africa Escaped a Deeper Crisis?’ said.

During the conflict, rising oil prices pushed petrol pump prices from around N830 per litre to as high as N1,325, while diesel prices climbed above N1,550 per litre, worsening transport costs and food inflation.

The resulting price shocks, the firm said, contributed to a sustained rise in consumer prices and complicated the CBN’s inflation-fighting efforts.

ALSO REAS: US-Iran Deal over Strait of Hormuz May Cost Nigeria up to N13trn

Data from SBM Intelligence showed that 82.7 percent of traders surveyed across major Nigerian cities reported price increases linked directly to the conflict, while 76.4 percent experienced significant increases in transportation costs.

Headline inflation rose to 15.93 percent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, while food inflation stood at 16.96 percent year-on-year (y/y).

The SBM Jollof Index, which tracks the cost of preparing a standard family-sized pot of jollof rice, reached N30,435 in April, 19.4 percent from N25,486 six months earlier, before easing slightly to N29,800 as of early June.

Against this backdrop, the MPC maintained the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 percent throughout the conflict, prioritising exchange-rate stability, foreign investor confidence and inflation control, according to its chairman, Olayemi Cardoso.

Hence, SBM Intelligence says the committee now faces a difficult balancing act.

According to the research and strategic communications consulting firm, with oil prices retreating and the immediate supply shock fading, pressure may grow on policymakers to begin discussing a gradual easing cycle to support economic activity and reduce borrowing costs for businesses and households.

The firm warned that premature rate cuts could undermine recent gains in inflation management, particularly given lingering uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire agreement and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

“We urge caution even so. Mine-clearance in the strait will take weeks, shipping backlogs at alternative ports need resolution, and the terms of the agreement may still “inject unease and uncertainty” if ratification stalls.

The IMF has welcomed the ceasefire but underlined that the risk of fresh energy disruptions remains elevated, particularly given the unresolved posture of Houthi forces in Yemen and the absence of any normalisation framework between Iran and Israel.

So the challenge ahead for the MPC is to engineer a measured easing cycle as global prices fall, without triggering renewed inflation if the ceasefire breaks down or if the US–Iran agreement stalls in ratification. This requires close monitoring of Hormuz mine-clearance progress and the resumption curve of Iranian export volumes”, the report said.

SBM Intelligence stressed that the situation highlights structural weaknesses within Nigeria’s economy. According to the firm, despite the country’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer and a growing exporter of refined petroleum products, domestic fuel pricing remains heavily exposed to international crude benchmarks.

It said that beyond inflation, lower oil prices could create fresh fiscal challenges for the government by reducing projected oil revenues at a time when public finances remain under pressure.

The report concluded that while the ceasefire has delivered welcome relief to global markets and Nigerian consumers, inflation remains above comfort levels, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continues to cast a shadow over the economic outlook.

“The ceasefire offers a narrow window for West Africa to build resilience. Strategic fuel reserves and fertiliser buffer stocks, financed through import levies and distributed through market associations, would protect traders from future shocks.

Regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area must be accelerated to develop overland corridors as alternatives to Middle Eastern maritime routes. Investment in solar and off-grid energy is no longer a luxury but a commercial necessity.

The underlying vulnerabilities are unchanged: import dependence, thin fiscal buffers and exposure to chokepoints beyond West African control. The ceasefire is a diplomatic achievement, but the structural realignment of global trade that the war accelerated will persist. Another shock will come”, it said.

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Dangote to Deliver $16bn East Africa Refinery in 40 Months

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Africa’s drive for industrial self reliance received a major boost on Wednesday as Kenya President William Ruto and President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, joined African leaders to break ground on a $16 billion petroleum refinery and petrochemicals complex in Lamu, Kenya.

Biztellers reports that the industrial complex is designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day and serve markets across Eastern Africa.

Dangote announced that the $16 billion Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals in Lamu, Kenya, will be delivered within 40 months, with an ambitious local content programme that will provide jobs for qualified Lamu graduates and train more than 1,000 young people from the county. Dangote also disclosed that 30 per cent equity in the 700,000 barrels per day refinery is being offered to East African countries, opening the landmark project to regional ownership as part of a broader strategy to strengthen energy security and retain more of Africa’s wealth within the continent.

READ ALSO: Nigeria @ 66: Chevron Reaffirms Commitment to Partnership with Nigeria

Dangote said the project would be executed at speed, assuring the gathering that the refinery would be completed within 40 months. He said the company had already begun mobilising equipment and technical resources for the project and would draw extensively from lessons learnt in delivering the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos. According to him, the Kenyan refinery would be one of the fastest major projects undertaken by the Group, as the company seeks to demonstrate that African businesses can execute complex industrial projects at globally competitive scale and speed.

Dangote placed local participation at the heart of the project, announcing that qualified graduates from Lamu would be offered opportunities to work on the development, while more than 1,000 young people from the host communities would receive technical and vocational training to prepare them for jobs within the refinery and its emerging industrial ecosystem. The Group will establish a training school to develop the technical skills required by the refinery, with emphasis on equipping local young people to participate directly in construction and subsequent operations. Dangote said the objective was to ensure that the economic footprint of the investment extended well beyond the refinery.

“We want young Kenyans and East Africans with skills here. We want local businesses to become suppliers. We want entrepreneurs around this project,” he said. “For me, the true measure of this project will not be the height of these towers or the number of barrels it processes.”

Instead, he said its success would also be measured by young Kenyans acquiring engineering and technical skills, local entrepreneurs building businesses around the investment and communities enjoying improved livelihoods. “Industrialisation must have a human face. It must create dignity. It must create jobs. It must create opportunities. It must create hope,” Dangote said.

President Ruto put the cost of the development at $16 billion, or about KSh2 trillion, describing it as a “generational undertaking” designed to serve not only Kenya but the wider Eastern African region. The project is designed to process about 700,000 barrels of crude oil daily and generate up to 1,000 megawatts of electricity. It will also include polypropylene and base oil production as part of an integrated refining and petrochemicals complex.

Ruto reinforced the employment commitment, saying current projections envisage about 60,000 direct and indirect jobs from the development. The President directed technical and vocational institutions and universities to prepare welders, technicians, engineers and managers for the opportunities, insisting that young people from Lamu and neighbouring communities must be given a fair opportunity to compete for the jobs. Ruto said the construction phase alone was expected to inject more than KSh2 billion monthly in wages into the economy, with the money circulating through shops, hotels, restaurants, transport, housing and other businesses.

In another significant move towards regional economic integration, Dangote disclosed that 30 per cent of the refinery’s equity would be made available to East African countries, allowing governments in the region to participate in the ownership and future value created by the project. He said Kenya and Rwanda had already moved quickly to take advantage of the opportunity. The ownership model fits into Dangote’s broader argument that African countries and investors should not merely host major industrial projects but should increasingly participate in their ownership and prosperity. Dangote said the refinery had been designed as a regional asset serving Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and other markets.

“This refinery is therefore not simply about one country. It is about a region,” he said.

The industrialist said Africa could no longer afford an economic model under which crude oil, minerals and agricultural commodities were exported while the continent imported the finished products derived from them.

“Africa cannot build lasting prosperity by exporting what it has and importing what it needs,” he said. “We must refine more of what we produce. We must process more of what we produce. We must retain more value here at home in Africa.”

The Governor of Lamu County, Issa Timamy also used the groundbreaking to condemn attempts to stop the project through litigation, describing those behind the move as working against an investment capable of transforming the economic fortunes of the county. Addressing residents partly in Swahili, the Governor said those who had gone to court against the development did not represent the aspirations of the people of Lamu.

He argued that opponents of the project were seeking to frustrate an investment that could provide opportunities for thousands of young people and insisted that residents would not allow the county’s development prospects to be undermined.

The Governor maintained that the project would go ahead and be completed, while calling on young people and businesses in the county to prepare themselves for the opportunities that would accompany the investment. He said Lamu had for too long been rich in history, culture and natural resources but left behind in the march of development, adding that the refinery offered the county an opportunity to become a major investment and industrial destination.

He nevertheless stressed the importance of protecting Lamu’s mangroves, fishing grounds, coastline and cultural heritage, calling for responsible development that would allow industrialisation and environmental protection to coexist.

Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo led other African leaders in celebrating Dangote’s emergence as one of the continent’s leading champions of industrialisation, recalling his evolution from trading and importation into large scale manufacturing. Obasanjo said the transformation demonstrated the importance of African governments creating the right environment for indigenous entrepreneurs to invest, manufacture and compete at scale. For the former President, the Lamu investment represented a further expansion of that industrialisation philosophy from West Africa into East Africa.

Obasanjo said he was particularly pleased to witness the project because of its potential to deepen economic integration between the two regions and demonstrate what African entrepreneurship, supported by purposeful political leadership, could accomplish.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said Africa could not continue exporting raw materials while surrendering the jobs and wealth associated with processing them elsewhere. He backed the regional ownership proposal, describing the opportunity for East African countries to acquire equity in the refinery as a smart approach to ensuring that the region participated not merely as a market but also as an owner.

Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, said the refinery would strengthen East Africa’s energy security and reduce its vulnerability to disruptions in global petroleum markets. He said Dangote’s record in cement, fertiliser and petroleum refining had demonstrated that African industrial enterprises could operate at global scale. “East Africa is not only a market. It is a place to produce, to build and to create value,” Abiy said.

Photo Caption: From Left – Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed; President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni; President of Kenya, William Ruto; President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote; former President of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo; President of Benin Republic, Romuald Wadagni; and President of Togo, Jean Lucien Savi de Tové, during the groundbreaking ceremony of the Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals SEZ in Mokowe, Lamu County, Kenya, on Wednesday, September 30, 2026

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Dangote Blames Marketers, IOCs for Lamu Refinery Protests

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Nigerian billionaire and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has blamed local marketers and international oil companies for fuelling protests over land earmarked for his proposed $16bn oil refinery in Lamu, Kenya.

Dangote and the President of Kenya, William Ruto, performed the groundbreaking ceremony for the refinery in Lamu on Wednesday. This comes even as a court halted construction activities due to a land dispute.

READ ALSO: MT Asharami Ghana Delivers 5,000MT LPG Cargo to Ghana

Dangote made the allegation while speaking to the BBC’s Focus on Africa programme, amid protests by some residents over compensation for land acquired for the refinery project.

The refinery is expected to have a processing capacity of 700,000 barrels per day when completed in 2030. Dangote disputed claims that the company had taken more land than it required, saying it only used the portion allocated to it by the Kenyan Government.

“They said some people are demonstrating; demonstrating about what? Have you ever seen people demonstrating against themselves in terms of development?” he asked.

Africa’s richest man dismissed the protests as “games played by local marketers and international players”, insisting the refinery would go ahead and would be ready by 2030 as planned.

The groundbreaking was also attended by the leaders of Uganda, Ethiopia, Togo and Benin. Dangote has offered regional governments a combined 30 per cent stake in the refinery, according to Reuters.

The billionaire insisted that the protests would not stop the refinery project, which he described as his largest proposed investment outside Nigeria.

The project is expected to become the largest refinery in East Africa and Kenya’s biggest infrastructure project since independence, surpassing the $5.1bn Standard Gauge Railway.

Dangote said the refinery would demonstrate that the success recorded with his 700,000bpd refinery in Nigeria could be replicated elsewhere on the continent.

“Lekki proved that it can be done, Lamu must prove that it can be repeated,” he said.

However, the Save Lamu campaign group has raised concerns about the environmental impact of the project on the local community. The co-founder of the group, Walid Ali, told the BBC that residents wanted to see the findings of the environmental impact assessment and the proposed mitigation measures.

A group of 133 Lamu residents had approached the Kenyan High Court in a bid to stop construction work. Following the legal action, activities including excavation and construction on the disputed land have been restricted pending the next court hearing, scheduled for October 14.

Dangote said the refinery would create about 60,000 jobs at the peak of construction, with local communities expected to benefit from the project.

The refinery will also include a 1,000-megawatt power plant designed to supply Dangote’s operations and other industries expected to establish businesses in the area.

Courtesy – The PUNCH

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Nigeria @ 66: Chevron Reaffirms Commitment to Partnership with Nigeria

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As Nigeria marks its 66th Independence Anniversary, Chevron companies in Nigeria reaffirm their confidence in the country and their long-standing commitment to partnership, investment and responsible energy development.

For more than six decades, Chevron has contributed to Nigeria’s growth through oil and gas production, deepwater investment, gas development, local content, human capacity development and strategic community partnerships.

Chevron is a leading oil and gas producer and investor in Nigeria, with operations across the Niger Delta and interests in major deepwater assets. Jim Swartz, Chairman and Managing Director of Chevron Companies in Nigeria, said the company takes a long-term view of Nigeria, with continued focus on operational excellence, efficiency, innovation and investment across its portfolio. He noted that Chevron remains committed to building enduring relationships that enable human progress today and in the future.

To support sustained growth, Chevron is expanding and optimising its assets through exploration, infill drilling and production enhancement. The company supports the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and the Federal Government’s efforts to strengthen the industry’s regulatory framework and investment climate.

READ ALSO: Ekuafeh Explores Human Uniqueness, Bond, Connection in Unity Forged in Clay

Since the PIA, Chevron has renewed and converted key joint-venture and deepwater leases; recorded discoveries at Meji NW-1, Delta South AA and Awodi-07; entered PPLs 2000 and 2001 through farm-in agreements; acquired deepwater block PPL 2010; and renewed Oil Prospecting Licence 215.

Chevron is also participating in strategic deepwater opportunities, including the announced Bonga Southwest/Aparo and Owowo/Usan developments. Completion of seismic acquisition across several deepwater leases is supporting future exploration, while planned infill drilling at the Agbami and non-operated Usan hubs is intended to mitigate natural production decline and sustain output.

Gas development remains another important pillar of Chevron’s contribution. Investments in the Escravos Gas Plant and Escravos Gas-to-Liquids facility have supported gas utilisation, reduced routine flaring and enabled production of high-quality products such as naphtha and refined diesel. Chevron also led the development of the approximately 700-kilometre West African Gas Pipeline, through which Nigeria supplies gas to Benin, Togo and Ghana, supporting regional economic growth and energy security.

Local content and human capacity development are central to Chevron’s operations. Nigerians account for more than 90 per cent of its in-country workforce. The company established its Local Content Policy in 1999, well before enactment of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act in 2010, and continues to collaborate with the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board while creating contract opportunities for Nigerian companies and contractors.

Beyond its operations, Chevron and its partners invest in health, education and environmental conservation. In health, the Agbami parties have constructed and equipped more than 28 chest clinics, donated nine mother-and-child healthcare centres and provided a medical diagnostics laboratory. These facilities strengthen tuberculosis treatment, maternal and child care, diagnostics and emergency response. Chevron Corporation has also supported global programmes addressing HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis, with benefits extending to Nigeria.

Chevron’s education programmes have benefited more than 23,000 people through scholarships, infrastructure and capacity building. Since 2009, the Agbami Medical and Engineering Professional Scholarship has supported more than 16,500 students nationwide, including 715 first-class graduates.

Chevron Nigeria and its deepwater partners have also delivered 39 science laboratory complexes and 25 conventional and hybrid libraries, while encouraging students to pursue science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

In environmental conservation, Chevron supported the establishment of the 78-hectare Lekki Conservation Centre and donated it to the Nigerian Conservation Foundation in 1992; today, it supports research, education and biodiversity protection.

As Nigeria celebrates 66 years of independence, Chevron’s message is clear: the company sees Nigeria as a long-term strategic partner and remains committed to investing in energy development, Nigerian capability and sustainable national progress. Through disciplined investment, collaboration and responsible operations, Chevron intends to continue contributing to Nigeria’s energy security, economic growth and shared prosperity.

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