Business
Post-war Rate Dilemma, Inflation, Lower Oil Prices Rattle CBN
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to face one of its most dicey policy decisions in months with easing global oil prices following the United States-Iran ceasefire being made worse by persistent domestic inflationary pressures, a report from SBM Intelligence said on Wednesday.
The ceasefire agreement, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption, triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices, with Brent crude falling from a peak of about $114 per barrel to nearly $101 per barrel.
The development has eased fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions and raised expectations of moderation in fuel and transport costs across oil-importing economies.
For Nigeria, however, the policy implications are far more complex, the SBM report titled; ‘The Persian Trap Aftermath: Has West Africa Escaped a Deeper Crisis?’ said.
During the conflict, rising oil prices pushed petrol pump prices from around N830 per litre to as high as N1,325, while diesel prices climbed above N1,550 per litre, worsening transport costs and food inflation.
The resulting price shocks, the firm said, contributed to a sustained rise in consumer prices and complicated the CBN’s inflation-fighting efforts.
ALSO REAS: US-Iran Deal over Strait of Hormuz May Cost Nigeria up to N13trn
Data from SBM Intelligence showed that 82.7 percent of traders surveyed across major Nigerian cities reported price increases linked directly to the conflict, while 76.4 percent experienced significant increases in transportation costs.
Headline inflation rose to 15.93 percent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, while food inflation stood at 16.96 percent year-on-year (y/y).
The SBM Jollof Index, which tracks the cost of preparing a standard family-sized pot of jollof rice, reached N30,435 in April, 19.4 percent from N25,486 six months earlier, before easing slightly to N29,800 as of early June.
Against this backdrop, the MPC maintained the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 percent throughout the conflict, prioritising exchange-rate stability, foreign investor confidence and inflation control, according to its chairman, Olayemi Cardoso.
Hence, SBM Intelligence says the committee now faces a difficult balancing act.
According to the research and strategic communications consulting firm, with oil prices retreating and the immediate supply shock fading, pressure may grow on policymakers to begin discussing a gradual easing cycle to support economic activity and reduce borrowing costs for businesses and households.
The firm warned that premature rate cuts could undermine recent gains in inflation management, particularly given lingering uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire agreement and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“We urge caution even so. Mine-clearance in the strait will take weeks, shipping backlogs at alternative ports need resolution, and the terms of the agreement may still “inject unease and uncertainty” if ratification stalls.
The IMF has welcomed the ceasefire but underlined that the risk of fresh energy disruptions remains elevated, particularly given the unresolved posture of Houthi forces in Yemen and the absence of any normalisation framework between Iran and Israel.
So the challenge ahead for the MPC is to engineer a measured easing cycle as global prices fall, without triggering renewed inflation if the ceasefire breaks down or if the US–Iran agreement stalls in ratification. This requires close monitoring of Hormuz mine-clearance progress and the resumption curve of Iranian export volumes”, the report said.
SBM Intelligence stressed that the situation highlights structural weaknesses within Nigeria’s economy. According to the firm, despite the country’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer and a growing exporter of refined petroleum products, domestic fuel pricing remains heavily exposed to international crude benchmarks.
It said that beyond inflation, lower oil prices could create fresh fiscal challenges for the government by reducing projected oil revenues at a time when public finances remain under pressure.
The report concluded that while the ceasefire has delivered welcome relief to global markets and Nigerian consumers, inflation remains above comfort levels, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continues to cast a shadow over the economic outlook.
“The ceasefire offers a narrow window for West Africa to build resilience. Strategic fuel reserves and fertiliser buffer stocks, financed through import levies and distributed through market associations, would protect traders from future shocks.
Regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area must be accelerated to develop overland corridors as alternatives to Middle Eastern maritime routes. Investment in solar and off-grid energy is no longer a luxury but a commercial necessity.
The underlying vulnerabilities are unchanged: import dependence, thin fiscal buffers and exposure to chokepoints beyond West African control. The ceasefire is a diplomatic achievement, but the structural realignment of global trade that the war accelerated will persist. Another shock will come”, it said.
Chevron Nigeria won the second-best exhibitor award at the just-concluded 2026 Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) conference and exhibition at Eko Hotels and Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos.
Biztellers reports that Olajumoke Cecilia Ajayi, FNAPE, NAPE President (2025–2026) and Managing Director/CEO of Ingentia Energies Limited, presented the award to Chevron, during the awards dinner on November 12, 2026.
The award is in recognition of Chevron’s outstanding exhibition, where visitors to its booth, particularly students, took part in Geology/Geophysics presentations and quizzes, word games, and Human Resources/Nigerian Content presentations and quizzes, with gifts for winners and participants.
Commenting on the award, the leader of the Chevron’s exhibition team, Dr. Victor Anyaegbudike, Manager Communications, Chevron companies in Nigeria and the Mid Africa Region, commended NAPE for its commitment to hosting the annual conference and exhibition. He noted that Chevron has operated in Nigeria for over 60 years, contributing to the country’s growth and development and making human investments that yield long-term, transformative returns.
READ ALSO: Tinubu, Shettima Head to Jos for APC Presidential Campaign Rally
“At Chevron Nigeria, we drive innovation and investment to open up opportunities for growth, jobs, productivity and lasting value. Forums like the NAPE conference and exhibition matter because they bring government, academia, students and industry together around shared goals and a better understanding of one another,” he remarked.
Victor noted that Chevron is committed to building productive, collaborative and mutually beneficial relationships, grounded in trust, with governments, partners, customers, communities and employees. “We believe that affordable, reliable and ever-cleaner energy is vital to a more prosperous and sustainable world,” he said.
Attendees at the NAPE conference and exhibition included representatives of the Federal Government of Nigeria, industry regulators, industry leaders, academics, and students from tertiary institutions across the country.
The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) recorded a 1.36 per cent weekly gain as its market capitalisation increased to ₦163.80 trillion at the close of trading on Friday, November 13, 2026.
The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose to 252,269.16 points, pushing the market’s year-to-date return to 62.11 per cent.
The performance reflected a positive trading week for the equities market, with 43 listed companies recording price appreciation, compared with 29 in the previous week.
SEE MORE:NGX Market Cap Falls to ₦163.65trn As All-Share Index Drops
According to the Exchange’s weekly market report, investors traded 8.03 billion shares valued at ₦185.36 billion in 160,836 deals during the week.
This represented a significant increase in trading volume from the 2.83 billion shares exchanged in 192,158 deals in the preceding week, although the total value of transactions declined from ₦208.41 billion.
The Financial Services Industry dominated trading activities, accounting for 4.85 billion shares worth ₦95.79 billion. This represented 60.45 per cent of the total equity turnover volume and 51.68 per cent of turnover value.
The Agriculture Industry followed with 2.24 billion shares valued at ₦22.78 billion, while the Consumer Goods Industry recorded 260.99 million shares worth ₦11.89 billion.
Further details of the market performance showed that 39 equities declined during the week, compared with 57 in the previous week, while 64 equities closed unchanged against 60 recorded in the preceding period.
On the gainers’ chart, Champion Breweries Plc emerged as the best-performing stock, appreciating by 27.27 per cent, while LivingTrust Mortgage Bank Plc recorded the biggest loss, declining by 18.53 per cent.
Meanwhile, trading in Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) stood at 1.21 million units valued at ₦278.97 million in 3,351 deals, compared with 1.46 million units worth ₦381.82 million in 4,085 deals in the previous week.
The fixed-income segment recorded 156,612 units valued at ₦177.88 million in 41 deals, against 21.99 million units worth ₦20.60 billion in 48 deals recorded in the preceding week.
The Exchange also recorded the listing of two commercial paper instruments issued by Thrive Agric Limited.
The instruments comprised ₦3.17 billion Series 1 (Tranche A) and ₦2.09 billion Series 1 (Tranche B) Commercial Papers, with a combined value of approximately ₦5.26 billion.
Nigeria produced a daily average of 1.687 barrels of crude oil and condensate in October 2026, and met its OPEC quota for the sixth consecutive month.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that in strict crude oil terms (excluding condensate), the country produced an average of 1.51mbpd in October.
This is 101 percent of the 1.5mbpd quota set by OPEC.
READ ALSO: NLNG, NCDMB Endow Research Chairs in Six Nigerian Varsities with $9m
The data, released on Wednesday, also shows that single-day production hit a peak of 1.79 million barrels, while the lowest for the month under review stood at 1.60 million bpd.
The crude oil data (excluding condensate) shows that Nigeria has met its assigned OPEC quota for six straight months, producing 1.53mobpd in May; 1.55mobpd in June; 1.51mobpd in July; 1.5mobpd in August, 1.53mobpd in September and 1.51mobpd in October.
On a month of month basis, however, production dipped by 1.7 percent.
The NUPRC attributed the stable performance in recent months to an enhanced operational stability, supported improved production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency.
The sustained growth recorded in October reflects the continued commitment of operators and industry stakeholders towards improving operational efficiency, maintaining asset integrity, and enhancing production reliability across the Nigerian upstream petroleum sector.
A breakdown of the daily average crude oil and condensate production by terminals/streams during the review month shows that Forcados Terminal accounted for 318.49kbpd while Bonny comes second with 311.02kbpd.
Qua Iboe Terminal recorded an average production of 173.97kbpd of crude oil and condensates while Escravos Oil Terminal posted a daily average of 134.67kbpd.
Bonga ranked as the fifth highest producing terminal, recording an average of 106.65kbpd of crude oil and condensate.
40% of Breadmakers Shut Down as Atiku Accuses Tinubu of Economic Failure
ADC Fires Back at NBA Over Kalu, Says ‘No Respectful Way to Address Evil’
INEC Debunks Amupitan Resignation Rumour After London Protest, Voter Register Controversy
Chevron Nigeria Emerges Second-best Exhibitor at NAPE 2026
NGX Gains 1.36% as Market Capitalisation Climbs to ₦163.80trn
Shettima, Wife Depart Abuja for Jos as Tinubu–Shettima Campaign Takes Rally to Plateau
Trump’s Family Unveils New Cryptocurrency Platform
Senate Denies Receiving Petitions Against Tinubu’s Ambassadorial Nominees
Dangote Cement Lights Up Benue Host Communities With CSR Initiatives
Reps Recommend 3-year Jail Term For Aviation minister
Tems Sets New Record On Billboard Hot 100 Chart
