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Euro-Zone Data Help Ease Deflation Concerns

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LONDON – The number of people without jobs across the 17 countries that share the euro fell in October by the largest amount since April 2011, while the annual rate of inflation picked up in November, although it remained well below the European Central Bank’s target level.

The European Union’s statistics agency said Friday the euro zone’s unemployment rate fell to 12.1% in October from 12.2% in September—which was a record high—and the annual rate of inflation rose to 0.9% in November from 0.7% in October. The ECB targets an inflation rate close to, but below 2.0%.

Both developments will ease concerns that the currency area is at risk of entering a period of deflation—or falling prices—as a result of weak consumer demand and low levels of bank lending.

EURO UNIONHowever, those concerns haven’t entirely abated. Figures also released Friday showed German retail sales fell in October, indicating that business on the high streets has remained slack ahead of the Christmas season. And in France, consumer spending slid. And despite the decline in unemployment during October, consumer confidence across the euro zone weakened in November.

“The overall assessment remains that inflation is very low, with downward pressure on markups and costs throughout the euro zone,” said Marie Diron, senior economic adviser to Ernst & Young. “We think that the ECB needs to recognize the risk of deflation more clearly and act pre-emptively.”

ECB officials have this week played down the prospects for dramatic steps to boost inflation and growth. In an interview with the Nikkei newspaper while on a visit to Japan, ECB executive board member Benoit Coure said deflation isn’t a threat, although the inflation rate will remain “far away” from the target.

He also said the central bank shouldn’t resort to quantitative easing, as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have done.

“Outright asset purchases is one of the tools that the ECB can use to implement its monetary policy, so it is in principle possible,” he said. “I don’t think this is warranted given the current prospects for inflation.”

Eurostat said the number of people without jobs fell by 61,000 in October, largely driven by a decline of 41,000 in France, the currency area’s second-largest economy. However, 19.298 million were without jobs, 615,000 more than in the same month last year. The rate of unemployment last fell in January 2011.

The decline in the unemployment rate was a surprise, since 20 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last week had expected it to be unchanged. But it remains very high by international standards. In the same month, the unemployment rate in the U.S. stood at 7.3%.

Within the euro zone, unemployment rates differed hugely, with Austria recording the lowest at 4.8%, and Greece the highest at 27.3%, although that figure was for August, the most recent month for which figures are available.

“Growth is no where near strong enough to make serious inroads into the jobless totals, particularly in the peripheral countries where unemployment is highest,” said Jonathon Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.

The rate of unemployment among people aged 24 or younger remains much higher than the rate for the population as a whole, and rose in October to 24.4% from 24.3%. Youth unemployment rates were particularly high in countries that have been worst affected by the euro zone’s fiscal and banking crisis. In Spain, the youth unemployment rate rose to 57.4% from 56.8% in September.

The euro-zone economy returned to growth in the second quarter, having contracted for the previous 18 months. It slowed in the third quarter, and some business surveys have indicated it won’t quickly rebound.

However, a measure of activity released Friday suggests there may be a slight pickup in growth during the final three months of the year.

Italy’s central bank and the London-based Center for Economic Policy Research said their Eurocoin indicator rose to 0.23 in November from 0.20 in October, its third month of registering economic growth.

The Eurocoin indicator is intended to estimate quarter-to-quarter growth in GDP, excluding erratic components such as seasonal variations and short-run volatility.

– WALL STREET JOURNAL

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OPEC+ Hikes Oil Production Quotas, Silent on UAE Pull-out

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Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries increased their oil production quota on Sunday in an expected move aimed at demonstrating continuity at the cartel after the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates.

The seven major producers will add 188,000 barrels per day to their total production quota for June amid the price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war, as part of “their collective commitment to support oil market stability”, according to a statement published by OPEC+.

The statement, following an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, made no mention of the United Arab Emirates, which quit the body on Friday, three days after announcing its withdrawal.

Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that the silence on the UAE’s departure was a sign of tense relations.

Oil market analysts had widely expected the increase of 188,000 barrels, similar to the 206,000-barrel daily increases OPEC+ announced in both March and April when the portion allotted to the UAE was subtracted.

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“By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it’s acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” Leon said.

Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Remains
But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit.
Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28.

Leon, the Rystad Energy analyst, told AFP on Sunday that the cartel was looking to send “a two-layer message” that the UAE’s exit would not disrupt how OPEC+ operates and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite massive disruption to oil trade due to the war.

“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,” Leon told AFP. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.”

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter’s production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas.

“Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint,” said Priya Walia, another analyst at Rystad Energy, ahead of Sunday’s meeting.

Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas.

Russia, the group’s second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones hit oil industry facilities.

‘A Big Deal’
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, described the UAE’s exist as “a big deal” for OPEC.

Previous withdrawals from the group by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 were less significant by comparison, Bakr told a video conference on the UAE withdrawal.

The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years, and state-owned oil company ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027 — far above the country’s last quota of around 3.5 million barrels.

ADNOC also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company is “accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy”.

There is also the risk for OPEC+ that other countries will leave such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have faced repeated accusations of surpassing their quotas.

AFP

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Shareholders Laud NGX Group at 65th AGM

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Shareholders of Nigerian Exchange Group Plc (NGX Group) have commended the Board and Management for the Group’s performance and strategic direction, urging continued focus on growth and long-term value creation.

At the Group’s 65th Annual General Meeting (AGM), shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, alongside key resolutions including a final dividend of ₦2.00 per share, a one-for-three bonus share issue, and the corresponding increase in share capital. The re-election of Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Board of Directors, Dr. Okechukwu Itanyi, Independent Non-Executive Director and Mrs. Ojinika Olaghere, Independent Non-Executive Director reinforced continuity in governance and oversight.

They acknowledged the Group’s disciplined execution and its role in strengthening the Nigerian capital market, noting that recent developments reflect a more structured and better-regulated market environment.

Speaking during the meeting, the President, New Dimension Shareholders Association, Patrick Ajudua, commended the leadership of the Group for delivering a strong financial outcome, noting that the results reflect both improved market conditions and deliberate strategic execution. “The numbers speak to a business that is gaining strength and direction,” he said.

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Similarly, the Chairman of the Progressive Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Boniface Okezie, lauded the Group’s commitment to innovation and infrastructure development. “The market is becoming more forward-looking, supported by strong leadership at the Group level. Initiatives around market infrastructure and participation are yielding results, and this is positive for investors,” he noted.

Commenting during the AGM, Chairman of NGX Group, Umaru Kwairanga, appreciated shareholders for their continued support and reaffirmed the Board’s commitment to sustainable value delivery. He said, “The progress recorded reflects the strength of the Group’s strategy and the performance of its operating businesses. As a Board, our responsibility is to ensure disciplined oversight, uphold strong governance standards, and position NGX Group to deliver sustainable, long-term value to shareholders.”

Temi Popoola, group managing director/chief executive officer, focused on execution priorities, noting that the Group is positioning for scale. He said, “This next phase is about deepening momentum. Our priority is to scale infrastructure, broaden participation, and unlock new pathways for capital formation.”

The meeting reflected strong shareholder confidence in NGX Group’s leadership, with the Group reaffirming its commitment to playing a central role in the evolution of Nigeria’s capital market while delivering sustained returns to investors.

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S’Leone Inks $225m Offshore Oil Deal with Nigeria’s Marginal Energy

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Sierra Leone has announced the signing of a petroleum licence agreement with Nigeria‑based ​Marginal Energy Limited, granting the company offshore exploration ‌and production rights as the government seeks to revive interest in its under‑explored upstream sector.

The licence, signed through the ​Petroleum Directorate of Sierra Leone (PDSL), covers offshore ​blocks G‑145, G‑146, G‑147, G‑160 and G‑161, spanning ⁠about 6,800 square kilometres, according to a government ​statement, a Reuters report said.

Marginal Energy, a Nigerian independent, has committed to ​a seismic and drilling programme with exploration spending expected to exceed $225 million.

Under the agreement, the state will hold a 10 percent ​carried interest in oil projects and 5 percent in ​gas during exploration and development, with an option to acquire an ‌additional ⁠participating interest on a paid basis of up to 9 percent once production begins.

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The deal was signed at the Invest in African Energy conference in Paris, ​where Sierra ​Leone has been ⁠promoting offshore licensing opportunities to international investors, the report added.

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