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IATA Sees Rising Fuel Costs Wiping Out Margins

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Repatriation of $450m Ticket Revenue Foreign Airlines, FG on War Path

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected that global airline profitability will decline sharply in 2026, citing war-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising jet fuel prices as key factors behind the downturn.

According to IATA’s latest outlook, airlines are expected to post a combined net profit of $23bn in 2026, nearly half of the $45bn estimated for 2025 and significantly below the earlier projection of $41bn for the year.

The association also noted that carriers in the Middle East are likely to slip into losses due to weak demand and operational disruptions, while airlines in other regions are expected to remain profitable, albeit at reduced levels.

On the outlook, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said, “War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worst. Globally, airlines are expected to see profitability halve compared to 2025. Profits will shrink from $45bn in 2025 to $23bn this year.

“And margins will shrink from 4.2 percent to 2.0 percent. All airline bottom lines are suffering from the rapid 70 percent rise in jet fuel prices. Some of the additional cost is being recuperated by adjusting prices and improving efficiency, but it will not be sufficient to maintain profitability at the previous year’s level. Smaller carriers that started the year with weak balance sheets are certainly struggling.”

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Walsh added that the Middle East would be the only region expected to record losses. “At the regional level, all are in the black but with sharply reduced financial performance, with the exception of the Middle East. The Gulf carriers face operational uncertainty following a near-complete shutdown of airspace at the outbreak of the war. These carriers are doing an amazing job maintaining connectivity, but major financial impacts are unavoidable.

“Even in the best of times, the airline industry as a whole suffers from low margins and returns below the cost of capital. The oil price shock has tested airline financial resilience as net margins have been squeezed to 2.0 percent globally.

“Airlines are bearing the brunt of the fuel price shock. While air fares are rising, airlines are still absorbing part of the hike in their bottom lines. Net profit per passenger is expected to fall to $4.50, half of what it was last year. Under the circumstances, that shows resilience. But it won’t even buy you a hot dog at most of the FIFA World Cup venues, and it does not leave much of a buffer should other costs or taxes start rising.”

IATA further stated that the industry’s net profit margin would decline to 2.0 per cent in 2026, compared to 4.2 percent recorded in 2025 and below the previously projected 3.9 per cent. It added that net profit per passenger transported would drop to $4.50 in 2026 from $9.10 achieved in 2025.

The association projected that operating profit would fall to $48 billion in 2026 from $76.4 billion in 2025, while the net operating margin would decline to 4.1 percent from 7.2 percent over the same period.

The IATA also said the industry’s return on invested capital would decrease to 4.3 percent in 2026 from 6.6 percent in 2025, remaining below the estimated weighted average cost of capital of 8.5 percent.

According to the association, the gap underscores the structural challenges facing the global airline industry, where profitability shocks can quickly undermine capital efficiency.

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AFRAA Admits United Nigeria Airlines as Full Member

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One of Nigeria’s leading operators, United Nigeria Airlines has been admitted as a Full Member of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA), a move that strengthens the continental body’s presence in one of Africa’s largest and fastest-growing aviation markets.

The announcement underscores AFRAA’s commitment to strengthening the Association’s footprint across the African continent and driving the sustainable development of the continent’s airline industry.

United Nigeria Airlines commenced its commercial operations in February, 2021 with a mission to enhance domestic connectivity across Nigeria and advance regional integration within West Africa. Operating a diverse modern fleet of Boeing 737-800NG, Embraer 145, A-320, Embraer 190 and CRJ 900 jets, United Nigeria Airlines currently serves 14 domestic routes which includes Abuja, Anambra, Asaba, Benin, Ekiti, Enugu, Ilorin, Kano, Lagos, Owerri, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Warri and Yenagoa with plans to open four new ones this year.

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United Nigeria Airlines also flies to Accra, Ghana’s capital and has been designated by the Nigerian government to fly to the USA, Canada, UAE, UK, Italy, Turkey and other regional and continental routes with more destinations expected.

It recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the government of Guinea-Bissau to establish a national carrier and has achieved the IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) certification.

It is also a member of the IATA Clearing House, demonstrating its commitment to global safety and operational standards.

It plans to establish its own Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO), a milestone that would further strengthen Nigeria’s aviation ecosystem and reduce dependence on costly offshore maintenance services.

Speaking on the occasion, AFRAA Secretary General, Mr. Abderahmane Berthé, stated: “We are truly excited to welcome United Nigeria Airlines into the AFRAA fraternity. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and one of its most dynamic aviation markets, and United Nigeria Airlines exemplifies the resilient, forward-looking spirit of the African airline industry. At AFRAA, United Nigeria Airlines will now have access to our full suite of advocacy, joint projects, commercial intelligence, capacity building, and networking resources. We will work to elevate their growth and advance the cause of truly unified African skies.”

The executive chairman of United Nigeria Airline, Prof. Obiora Okonkwo said: “Joining AFRAA as a full member is a defining moment for United Nigeria Airlines and for Nigerian aviation as a whole. Our vision has always been to unite Nigerians and connect them more closely to the rest of the continent. AFRAA membership gives us a stronger platform to advance that vision, collaborate with our fellow African carriers, and contribute meaningfully to the realisation of the Single African Air Transport Market. We look forward to working with AFRAA and its members to build a more integrated and competitive African aviation industry.”

The admission of United Nigeria Airlines aligns with AFRAA’s strategic priorities, including accelerating the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), promoting intra-African trade and tourism, and enhancing operational excellence across member airlines. Nigeria, as Africa’s most populous nation and one of its fastest-growing economies, is central to the realization of a truly integrated African aviation market.

As a Full Member, United Nigeria Airlines joins a network of over 40 member airlines across the continent. The airline joins a membership that collectively represents more than 85% of total international traffic carried by African airlines.

The membership of AFRAA has multiple benefits including collective advocacy, network and partnership facilitation, market intelligence, operational efficiency and joint negotiations. The admission comes as African carriers continue pushing for deeper regional integration under SAATM, a long-running initiative aimed at liberalizing air travel across the continent.

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FCCPC Decries Domestic Fuel Prices Remaining at Variance with Global Crude Rates

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FCCPC Institutes Probe Panel, as Female Colleague Kills Director

There are mounting concerns over possible consumer exploitation in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector with fuel prices failing to be in line with the sharp drop in global crude oil prices.

According to the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), its ongoing market surveillance showed that local refiners, depot operators, marketers and filling station owners had implemented only marginal reductions in fuel prices, which is a variance with the steep decline in international crude oil prices.

This was detailed in a statement on Sunday under the signature of the FCCPC’s Director of Corporate Affairs, Ondaje Ijagwu.

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The commission maintained that a review of prevailing gantry and retail prices suggested that consumers were yet to fully benefit from the easing in global oil prices.

The statement read, “The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission has expressed concern over findings from an ongoing surveillance of the downstream petroleum market suggesting undue exploitation of consumers.

“A review of the gantry prices of local refiners, marketers, depot operators and retail outlet operators revealed token reductions in prices that are not commensurate with the steep fall in crude prices in the global market.”

The Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the FCCPC, Tunji Bello, said the commission was concerned by what appeared to be a one-sided response to changes in crude oil prices.

He observed that operators in the downstream sector often moved swiftly to raise pump prices whenever crude oil prices increase but are reluctant to pass on the benefits to consumers when prices fall.

Bello said, “To be clear, the Commission does not regulate or approve petroleum prices in a deregulated downstream market. Our responsibility under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, 2018, is to promote competitive markets, prevent anti-competitive conduct, and protect consumers from unfair, deceptive and exploitative business practices.

“We are concerned that while dealers often respond swiftly by hiking pump prices whenever crude prices rise, it is curious that it is taking forever for consumers to benefit significantly when crude prices fall. Competitive markets must work fairly in both directions.”

The commission’s concerns come amid a sharp reversal in global oil prices following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a major global oil shipping route.

Although the FCCPC acknowledged that domestic fuel prices are influenced by several commercial factors, including foreign exchange fluctuations, logistics costs, financing expenses, refining costs and distribution charges, it maintained that competitive market forces should ordinarily have led to more substantial reductions in pump prices.

Bello said, “Market liberalisation does not diminish businesses’ obligations to compete fairly or consumers’ right to fair treatment. Where credible evidence indicates conduct that undermines competition, exploits consumers or otherwise contravenes the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, the Commission will investigate and take appropriate enforcement action.”

He urged Nigerians to continue reporting suspected cases of anti-competitive conduct, price manipulation and other unfair market practices through the commission’s complaint channels.

The FCCPC’s concerns are likely to reignite debate over the effectiveness of the deregulated petroleum market, with many consumers and industry stakeholders questioning why reductions in international crude oil prices have not translated into proportionate declines at the pumps.

Since the removal of fuel subsidies and the full deregulation of the downstream sector, fuel prices in Nigeria have become increasingly tied to movements in global crude oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations. However, consumer groups have repeatedly accused marketers of implementing price increases almost immediately while delaying price reductions whenever market conditions improve.

The FCCPC said its warning signalled possible regulatory scrutiny of pricing practices in the sector as pressure mounts on operators to ensure that the gains from lower crude oil prices are passed on to consumers.

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Nigeria’s Telecom Boom Continues as Mobile Subscribers Soar to 188m

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Nigeria’s telecommunications industry recorded another milestone in April 2026 as the number of active mobile subscriptions climbed to 188.01 million, while broadband penetration rose to 55.67 per cent, according to the latest figures released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

The industry data showed that active telephony subscriptions increased from the previous month, pushing the country’s teledensity to 86.73 per cent, compared to 85.67 per cent recorded in March.

The development underscores the growing demand for mobile voice and internet services across Nigeria.

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The subscriber breakdown revealed that MTN Nigeria retained its position as the country’s largest telecom operator with 96.39 million active subscribers, accounting for more than half of Nigeria’s total mobile subscriptions.

Airtel Nigeria followed with 64.67 million subscribers, while Globacom recorded 23.18 million subscribers. 9mobile remained the smallest operator with 3.54 million active users during the review period.

The NCC report also highlighted the continued migration of consumers to faster internet technologies. 4G remained the dominant mobile network, accounting for 54.41 per cent of all network connections in April, an increase from 53.76 per cent recorded in March.

Similarly, 5G adoption continued to expand, with its market share rising from 4.20 per cent to 4.34 per cent, reflecting the increasing uptake of next-generation mobile services across the country.

On the other hand, the use of older network technologies continued to decline. 2G subscriptions dropped to 35.93 per cent from 36.74 per cent, while the 3G segment remained largely stable at 5.32 per cent of total network connections.

The commission further disclosed that total internet subscriptions reached 154.72 million in April. Of the figure, 154.35 million came through mobile GSM networks, while fixed-wired internet subscriptions stood at 156,662.

Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services accounted for 220,166 subscriptions.
Broadband subscriptions also recorded impressive growth, increasing from 117.71 million in March to 120.68 million in April.

As a result, broadband penetration improved from 54.30 per cent to 55.67 per cent, indicating continued investment in broadband infrastructure and growing adoption of high-speed internet by individuals and businesses.

Despite the rise in internet users, overall data consumption dipped slightly during the month.

Internet usage fell from 1,422,764.54 terabytes (TB) in March to 1,414,848.70TB in April, suggesting that while more Nigerians are coming online, average data usage remained relatively stable.

The telecommunications sector also maintained its strong contribution to the Nigerian economy, accounting for 9.19 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026.

Industry stakeholders believe sustained investment in broadband infrastructure, wider deployment of 5G technology and improved service quality will further accelerate digital inclusion, innovation and economic growth across Nigeria.

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