Energy
IEA: Nigeria Has Only 1.42m bpd Production Capacity, Zero Spare Output
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that Nigeria currently has a sustainable crude oil production capacity of 1.42 million barrels per day and zero spare capacity, despite the recent announcements that the country could significantly raise output in the coming months.
The organisation stated this in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), painting a sobering picture for Nigeria, one that sharply contrasts with the country’s formal Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production target of 1.5 million bpd.
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According to the agency, which provides authoritative data, analysis and policy advice on global energy markets, technologies and transitions, Nigeria’s output cannot be immediately ramped up in response to market tightness or geopolitical disruptions.
The IEA figures showed Nigeria’s OPEC crude oil production in recent months hovering well below the headline quota, after averaging about 1.44 million bpd in November and slipping to roughly 1.43 million bpd in December.
Although in absolute terms, the gap between quota and actual output appears small at roughly 70,000 bpd, in market terms it is significant, as it reflects structural constraints rather than voluntary restraint by Africa’s largest oil producer.
Nigeria’s crude oil production has for about six years struggled to match official pledges. While the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) have set ambitious targets of around 2 to 2.4 million bpd, actual output has consistently fallen short.
Despite occasional spikes in production, the shortfalls have been largely driven by underinvestment, security challenges, aging infrastructure, and operational inefficiencies, including non-functional evacuation routes.
However, apart from the 1.42 bpd reported by the IEA as Nigeria’s sustainable oil production in the short term, the absence of spare capacity was the most consequential element of the organisation’s assessment.
Spare capacity refers to volumes that can be brought online within a short period, typically between 30 to 90 days, and sustained for some time. In oil markets, this buffer is crucial, acting as insurance against shocks such as outages, conflicts, or sudden demand surges.
But according to the IEA, Nigeria currently lacks this buffer entirely, meaning that the barrels Nigeria is producing today are effectively its maximum sustainable output under present conditions.
A THISDAY analysis of the IEA data showed a clear contrast between Nigeria and core producers that continue to dominate global spare capacity.
Saudi Arabia remained the single largest holder of readily available supply, with a spare capacity of over 2.4 million bpd.
The UAE also retained meaningful flexibility of 60,000 bpd, while Iraq and Kuwait held a more modest but still material buffer of 53,000 bpd and 34,000 bpd respectively. This means that unlike Nigeria, these countries are not only producing below their technical limits but are doing so deliberately as part of OPEC+ supply management.
Outside this group, spare capacity was either extremely limited or non-existent, with several African producers mirroring Nigeria’s situation, albeit at much smaller absolute volumes.
Angola, for example, continued to struggle with structural decline driven by underinvestment and ageing fields, leaving it well below historical production levels and with no meaningful capacity to surge output.
Besides, Libya’s production still remains volatile with frequent outages, while among non-OPEC producers, the IEA data underscored a similar theme of tightness.
In all, the IEA put global oil demand growth at an average of 930 kb/d in 2026, up from 850 kb/d in 2025, reflecting a normalisation of economic conditions after last year’s tariff turmoil and lower oil prices than a year ago.
This year, it said that world oil supply is projected to rise by 2.5 million bpd to 108.7 million bpd, following an increase of 3 million bpd in 2025. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.8 million bpd of the gains in 2025 and 1.3 million bpd in 2026, it added.
THISDAY
Energy
Gas Industry Must Commercialise Methane – NLNG
Gas producers must stop treating methane reduction as an environmental cost, because methane released into the atmosphere represents lost gas, lost revenue and lost energy that could otherwise be recovered and sold.
The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG) Adeleye Falade, made the declaration during a panel titled “Capturing the Lost Opportunity: Driving Global Alignment on Methane Abatement Across Natural Gas Supply Chains,” at the Gastech 2026 Exhibition and Conference in Bangkok, Thailand.
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Taking from the company’s experience, he highlighted that investments in methane abatement could pay for themselves while improving plant efficiency and asset reliability.
The NLNG CEO said the commercial value of recovering lost gas should become a central part of the global industry’s approach to methane management.
“Every tonne emitted is lost product, lost revenue and lost energy; gas we could have sold. Every molecule of methane avoided is both an emissions reduction and a recovered energy resource.”
According to him, the NLNG’s new boil-off gas compressor and start-up gas recovery project demonstrate the business case for methane reduction, with each project expected to deliver methane reductions of about 10–15 percent while also recording positive projected net present values. “The most compelling business case is the simplest one: the projects that cut our methane also pay for themselves.
“The same discipline that reduces methane also improves asset reliability and plant efficiency. The returns show up in more places than the emissions ledger,” Falade said.
He added that the starting point for methane abatement was credible measurement of gas losses, which enables companies to identify where methane is being lost, channel investment towards the right interventions and independently verify the results.
According to Falade, the NLNG had demonstrated that producers in developing economies could meet globally recognised standards for emissions measurement and reporting, despite infrastructure and other constraints.
He disclosed that the NLNG had achieved Gold Standard recognition under the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0 and became the first company in Africa to attain Level 5 methane emissions reporting.
Its measurement, reporting and verification system is independently assured by DNV in line with ISO 14064.
The NLNG’s methane-management programme includes site-wide optical gas imaging, a structured Leak Detection and Repair programme, as well as phased deployment of continuous monitoring and real-time emissions dashboards across its plant and vessels.
Falade said methane reduction was also being incorporated into the design of Train 7, which is expected to raise the NLNG’s LNG production capacity from 22 million tonnes per annum to 30 million tonnes.
The commercial case for emissions abatement was not new to Nigeria, he added, pointing to the NLNG’s longstanding role in converting gas that would otherwise have been flared into a marketable product.
According to him, the company’s activities have contributed to reducing Nigeria’s gas-flaring rate from above 65 percent to below 20 percent.
Beyond its own operations, Falade revealed that the NLNG was extending methane-management requirements across its supply chain through its Scope 3 Advocacy Plan.
The company engages feed-gas suppliers and contractors to measure, disclose and reduce emissions, while verified upstream emissions data and emissions-related criteria are incorporated into supplier selection and evaluation.
Falade also called for greater consistency in methane measurement and reporting requirements across jurisdictions, arguing that divergent standards make enforcement uneven and complicate meaningful comparisons between producers.
“The industry does not need weaker standards; it needs stronger, shared ones backed by real measurement,” he said.
On the tension between emissions reduction, energy access and affordability, Falade said developing economies should not be forced to choose between economic development and climate action.
“Developing economies cannot be asked to choose between economic development and emissions reduction. Both must progress together,” he said.
Other panellists were Zubin Bamji of the World Bank, Niels Dijksman of Brunei LNG and Hiroyuki Mori of JOGMEC.
The session was moderated by energy economist Dr Carole Nakhle of Crystol Energy.
Energy
NLNG’s $10 Billion Train 7 LNG Project to Begin Operations by 2027
Expectations are high that the $10 billion Train 7 project of the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (NLNG) would go into operation by the end of 2027.
Managing Director of NLNG, Adeleye Falade, made the disclosure on the side-lines of the Gastech conference, yesterday, in Bangkok, Reuters reported.
This is part of a grand strategy by the company to raise production and address persistent gas supply constraints.
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Train 7 project, located on Bonny Island, Rivers State, is expected to increase NLNG’s production capacity to 30 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa), from the current 22 mtpa.
The project has suffered repeated delays, including disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Falade also disclosed that NLNG remained under a force majeure declared in 2022 following widespread flooding that disrupted gas supplies to the company.
According to him, the company would lift the force majeure when it reaches a 90 per cent utilisation rate, with the plant currently operating at between 82 per cent and 83 per cent.
“We still have a delta of about 15 per cent that we need to close,” Falade said. “Operationally, we are able to do that, but our biggest constraint is gas supply, and we’re working with all the relevant people, including the government, to be able to get more gas to flow into the plant,” he added.
He said NLNG was focused on meeting its existing contractual obligations to buyers while the company worked to increase production.
Falade added that interest in additional LNG volumes and spot cargoes had increased after exports through the Strait of Hormuz were curtailed by the Iran war.
“People are looking at more diversified, reliable sources of supply,” he said.
“Our priority currently is to continue to make sure that we fulfil our obligations to our existing customers and maximize as much production opportunity as possible that we have,” he added.
The NLNG is majority-owned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), while Shell, TotalEnergies and Eni are its international partners.
Energy
Smart Filling Stations: NNPC Ltd Assuages Job-loss Worries
Public concerns that the introduction of smart and self-service filling stations would lead to job losses in the downstream petroleum sector have been dismissed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd).
According to the state oil major, the deployment of automated stations was part of efforts to improve efficiency and customer experience. It added that the technology would create new opportunities rather than simply eliminate existing jobs.
The NNPC Ltd also disclosed plans to transform about 900 of its existing retail outlets across the country into modern energy hubs, as it adapts its retail business to changing consumer needs and developments in the downstream sector.
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The disclosures were made in Abuja, during the commissioning of a 24-hour smart, self-service filling station at the headquarters of the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS).
The Executive Director, Retail Operations and Mobility, NNPC Retail Limited, Shettima Kukawa, said the new model was designed to provide customers with faster, more convenient and technology-driven services.
Kukawa added that the transformation of the company’s retail outlets was not about simply replacing workers with machines, but about creating a modern retail environment capable of providing more services to customers.
He explained that the smart station allows motorists to purchase fuel through the NNPC fuel app, fund their digital wallets and dispense the exact quantity of fuel they have paid for using a self-service code.
The station has a storage capacity of 180,000 litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and 45,000 litres of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), with 16 PMS pumps and two AGO pumps.
It also has a six-point electric vehicle (EV) charging facility and is primarily powered by a solar system with more than 200kWh capacity.
Managing Director, NNPC Retail Limited, Hubb Stokman, said the downstream industry was undergoing significant changes following fuel deregulation and the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery.
Stokman said consumers were also demanding more services at filling stations, pointing out that the traditional fuel-only model was no longer sufficient to meet their expectations.
“Today shows that the downstream industry is changing after the fuel deregulation and also the start-up of the Dangote Refinery. Our industry is rapidly changing, and I think that more than ever, we need to meet the needs of the Nigerian consumer and their wishes.
“They want to see more services, like a fast food restaurant, convenience shop, maybe a coffee shop, banks. They would like to have a lounge or car wash. All these things that you will see here,” he said.
Also speaking, the Executive Vice President, Downstream, NNPC Limited, Dr Mumuni Dagazau, said the company was moving beyond the traditional concept of a filling station by integrating technology and alternative energy solutions into its retail network.
He said the development represented the type of modern retail infrastructure that should be replicated across the country, stressing that Nigerians deserved improved quality and service.
“Our objective at NNPC is not simply to provide fuel, it is to provide reliable energy solutions and a better retail experience supported by technology and innovation.
“We deserve these sort of stations throughout this country. We need to move away from where we have been and deliver this sort of quality and the service to our people in the community,” Dagazau said.
On his part, the Comptroller-General of Nigeria Immigration Service, Kemi Nandap, commended NNPC Limited for integrating EV charging with conventional fuelling.
Represented by Saidu Daura, the Deputy Comptroller-General, Nandap said the development aligned with global trends in energy transition, climate action and smart mobility, describing it as a practical step towards a cleaner, more sustainable and technology-driven economy.
She said the shift to technologies such as electric mobility could create opportunities for investment, employment, skills transfer and industrial growth.
“Today’s commissioning goes beyond the opening of a service station. It is a statement of confidence in Nigeria’s future and a contribution to building a resilient, green, and technologically advanced nation,” she said.
Nandap called for stronger collaboration between government institutions, the private sector and other stakeholders to promote sustainable development and national progress.
The station operates round-the-clock and includes automated services designed to reduce waiting time and give motorists greater control over their transactions.





