Energy
IEA: Nigeria Has Only 1.42m bpd Production Capacity, Zero Spare Output
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that Nigeria currently has a sustainable crude oil production capacity of 1.42 million barrels per day and zero spare capacity, despite the recent announcements that the country could significantly raise output in the coming months.
The organisation stated this in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), painting a sobering picture for Nigeria, one that sharply contrasts with the country’s formal Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production target of 1.5 million bpd.
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According to the agency, which provides authoritative data, analysis and policy advice on global energy markets, technologies and transitions, Nigeria’s output cannot be immediately ramped up in response to market tightness or geopolitical disruptions.
The IEA figures showed Nigeria’s OPEC crude oil production in recent months hovering well below the headline quota, after averaging about 1.44 million bpd in November and slipping to roughly 1.43 million bpd in December.
Although in absolute terms, the gap between quota and actual output appears small at roughly 70,000 bpd, in market terms it is significant, as it reflects structural constraints rather than voluntary restraint by Africa’s largest oil producer.
Nigeria’s crude oil production has for about six years struggled to match official pledges. While the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) have set ambitious targets of around 2 to 2.4 million bpd, actual output has consistently fallen short.
Despite occasional spikes in production, the shortfalls have been largely driven by underinvestment, security challenges, aging infrastructure, and operational inefficiencies, including non-functional evacuation routes.
However, apart from the 1.42 bpd reported by the IEA as Nigeria’s sustainable oil production in the short term, the absence of spare capacity was the most consequential element of the organisation’s assessment.
Spare capacity refers to volumes that can be brought online within a short period, typically between 30 to 90 days, and sustained for some time. In oil markets, this buffer is crucial, acting as insurance against shocks such as outages, conflicts, or sudden demand surges.
But according to the IEA, Nigeria currently lacks this buffer entirely, meaning that the barrels Nigeria is producing today are effectively its maximum sustainable output under present conditions.
A THISDAY analysis of the IEA data showed a clear contrast between Nigeria and core producers that continue to dominate global spare capacity.
Saudi Arabia remained the single largest holder of readily available supply, with a spare capacity of over 2.4 million bpd.
The UAE also retained meaningful flexibility of 60,000 bpd, while Iraq and Kuwait held a more modest but still material buffer of 53,000 bpd and 34,000 bpd respectively. This means that unlike Nigeria, these countries are not only producing below their technical limits but are doing so deliberately as part of OPEC+ supply management.
Outside this group, spare capacity was either extremely limited or non-existent, with several African producers mirroring Nigeria’s situation, albeit at much smaller absolute volumes.
Angola, for example, continued to struggle with structural decline driven by underinvestment and ageing fields, leaving it well below historical production levels and with no meaningful capacity to surge output.
Besides, Libya’s production still remains volatile with frequent outages, while among non-OPEC producers, the IEA data underscored a similar theme of tightness.
In all, the IEA put global oil demand growth at an average of 930 kb/d in 2026, up from 850 kb/d in 2025, reflecting a normalisation of economic conditions after last year’s tariff turmoil and lower oil prices than a year ago.
This year, it said that world oil supply is projected to rise by 2.5 million bpd to 108.7 million bpd, following an increase of 3 million bpd in 2025. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.8 million bpd of the gains in 2025 and 1.3 million bpd in 2026, it added.
THISDAY
The Senate Committee on Petroleum Sector has vowed to end the existing jurisdictional regulatory conflict between the Nigerian Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and Oil and Gas Free Zone Authority (OGFZA).
Chairman of the Senate Committee on Downstream Petroleum Sector, Senator Sulaiman Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila stated this at the Committee’s 5-day retreat in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State.
Senator Sumaila assured that the committee will, at the end of the retreat, come up with practical and implementable recommendations that will promote harmony, investors’ confidence, energy security and sustainable economic development.
He explained that the retreat was designed to provide a neutral platform for constructive engagements among all relevant stakeholders.
He added, “The objectives of the retreat are to facilitate meaningful dialogue among all stakeholders on issues arising from the overlapping statutory mandates; develop practical coordination framework capable of promoting seamless regulations, while respecting the lawful mandates of the institutions involved.
“The committee will also examine whether legislative clarification or amendment is required, study and identify ambiguities as well as to ensure that the outcomes of the retreat are in line with national security, consumer protection, market stability and economic growth.
“I want to assure the stakeholders that the committee will examine every presentation, submissions and legal argument placed before it during the retreat.
“At the conclusion of its deliberations, the committee will formulate unbiased, evident-based and objective recommendations aimed for providing both immediate and long-term solutions to the jurisdictional regulatory issues that have arisen.
“Where permanent legislation, policy or constitutional reforms are required to prevent conflicts among the agencies, the committee will not hesitate to recommend such measures in the override interest of the nation.
“Our ultimate goal is to establish a regulatory environment characterized by regularities, cooperation, accountability, efficiency and legal certainty; one that supports engagement, promotes healthy institutional collaboration, safeguard national interest and strengthens Nigeria’s position as leading energy hub in Africa.
In his good will message, the Managing Director of the Oil and Gas Free Zone Authority, Alhaji Bamanga Usman Jada, appealed to all regulatory stakeholders in the petroleum sector to desist from promoting unhealthy jurisdictional ambiguity among the federal government agencies.
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Alhaji Jada explained that all regulatory agencies in the sub-sector were expected to create a business-enabling environment that promotes regulatory cooperation among agencies, saying “this should be done relying on the global principles of the rules of law, with concerted efforts to continue building and sustaining investors’ confidence.
“If Nigeria is to become Africa’s foremost energy and industrial hub, Free zone investors like Dangote Industries Free Zone must be allowed to enjoy the one-stop-shop principle which is being practiced in all successful Free Zones across the globe.
“They all operate one coordinated regulatory system, and all institutions of government in Nigeria must continue to be encouraged to understand the greater national objectives of the Free zone scheme.”
The peace deal between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz might cost Nigeria dearly in oil revenues.
Nigeria’s oil earnings recorded an estimated windfall of about N5.13 trillion in two months (February to April), as crude prices surged sharply following tensions between the United States–Iran crisis, pushing revenues far above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget estimates.
Recall that the US-Iran war started on February 28 when oil prices were below $70 a barrel.
The hostilities brought the Strait of Hormuz, a major global energy gateway, under blockade for four months.
However, three days ago, a truce was reached among all parties, leading to a ceasefire and the reopening of the channel.
While the war lasted, oil prices rose to an all time peak of over $120 per barrel, further boosting revenue for Nigeria.
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The 2026 budget is anchored on daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Based on these, expected daily oil revenue stands at $116.73m, derived from multiplying 1.8 million barrels by $64.85. When converted at the budget exchange rate, this amounts to about N163.42bn per day, which serves as the baseline for measuring any revenue gains or shortfalls.
Actual earnings in March and April exceeded this benchmark, largely due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices occasioned by the crisis in the Middle East.
Recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated that Nigeria’s oil production averaged 1.55 million barrels per day, while the average crude price stood at $95.03 per barrel, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria, and the exchange rate averaged N1,370 to the dollar.
Going by these figures, daily revenue amounted to approximately $147.30m, obtained by multiplying 1.55 million barrels by $95.03. Converted at the average exchange rate for the month, this translates to about N201.80bn per day.
Despite production falling short of the budget target by about 250,000 barrels per day, the higher oil price ensured that overall revenue remained significantly above projections.
But should the reopening of Strait of Hormuz drive crude prices towards Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel as against elevated crisis level of $95 per barrel, the country could lose about N13 trillion in the remaining months of 2026.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will return millions of barrels of Middle East crude to the market. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE collectively produce more than 15 million barrels per day, compared with Nigeria’s average output of about 1.55 million barrels per day.
The renewed availability of these supplies could narrow the premium enjoyed by Nigerian crude grades during the disruption and intensify competition in key Asian markets.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and TotalEnergies have renewed their partnership on methane emissions reduction
The renewal involves extending the deployment of the Airborne Ultralight Spectrometer for Environmental Applications (AUSEA) technology across the NNPC Ltd’s upstream operations for another 24 months.
The extension is aimed at strengthening efforts to detect, measure and reduce methane and carbon emissions, while supporting the NNPC Ltd’s gas flaring reduction obligations and broader decarbonisation targets.
The development was disclosed in a statement under the signature of the NNPC Ltd’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, after the signing of the agreement at the NNPC Towers in Abuja on Wednesday.
According to the statement, the renewed agreement builds on an earlier deal signed in 2023 for the adoption of the AUSEA technology and is expected to help NNPC Ltd meet its commitments under the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), its participation in the Oil & Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0, and its ambition to achieve near-zero methane emissions by 2030.
The agreement was signed by the NNPC Ltd’s Executive Vice President, Upstream, Udy Ntia, and TotalEnergies Country Chair and Managing Director, Matthieu Bouyer, on behalf of their respective organisations.
Speaking at the signing ceremony, Ntia expressed satisfaction with the outcomes of the first phase of the technology’s deployment and called for its expansion across more assets.
“Today’s signing represents a practical step in NNPC Limited’s journey to build a credible, transparent and action-oriented decarbonisation programme. Through the AUSEA initiative, we are strengthening our ability to detect, quantify and prioritise methane abatement opportunities using advanced measurement technology,” he said.
Ntia also advocated the institutionalisation of progress reporting in line with compliance requirements and highlighted the potential for technology transfer to enhance local capacity in emissions monitoring and management.
On his part, TotalEnergies’ Senior Vice President for Africa, Mike Sangster, commended the long-standing cooperation between the two companies and reiterated TotalEnergies’ commitment to reducing emissions across its operations.
He noted that TotalEnergies was the first oil-producing company in Nigeria to eliminate routine gas flaring across all its assets, adding that the AUSEA technology played a significant role in achieving that milestone.
Sangster said the company remains focused on achieving near-zero methane emissions by 2030 and looks forward to deepening collaboration with NNPC Ltd in pursuit of that goal.
AUSEA is a drone-based emissions monitoring technology jointly developed by TotalEnergies, the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and the University of Reims.
The technology enables operators to identify previously unaccounted emission sources, improve emissions reporting processes, review operational systems and implement corrective measures. It also provides estimates of flare combustion efficiency, helping operators strengthen environmental performance and regulatory compliance.
NNPC Ltd said the renewed partnership underscores the commitment of both companies to advancing cleaner energy operations, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting Nigeria’s transition towards a more sustainable oil and gas industry.
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