The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) supplied about 5.84 billion litres of petrol to the Nigerian market in the first five months of 2026, which amounts to about 81.4 percent of total supply.

This was detailed in trend statistics from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) for the period.

This is as the legal fireworks from the matter instituted by the DPRP over the continued importation of the product into Nigeria continue ragging.

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A review of supply data for January to May showed that the refinery supplied approximately 5.836 billion litres of petrol during the period, while importers brought in about 1.330 billion litres, bringing total market supply to roughly 7.166 billion litres.

Further checks indicated that for every litre of imported petrol, Dangote supplied about 4.4 litres, reinforcing the refinery’s growing dominance of Nigeria’s downstream market.

According to the data, the refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres per day in January, translating to about 1.243 billion litres for the month, while marketers imported 24.8 million litres daily or approximately 768.8 million litres during the same period.

This means that during that month, Dangote accounted for 61.8 per cent of combined supply, while imports represented 38.2 per cent. Besides, national petrol consumption averaged 60.2 million litres per day during the month, while the refinery operated at 61.27 percent capacity utilisation.

In February, the data showed that the DPRP supplied 36.6 million litres daily, equivalent to about 1.025 billion litres for the month, while imports plunged to 3 million litres per day or 84 million litres in total.

The refinery’s share of market supply rose sharply to 92.4 percent, leaving imports with just 7.6 percent. Consumption averaged 56.9 million litres daily, while capacity utilisation increased significantly to 78.24 percent.

The figures come amid an ongoing court case initiated by the DPRP seeking to halt the issuance of import licences for petrol and other refined petroleum products that can be sufficiently produced locally. The refinery has argued that continued importation undermines investments, discourages domestic refining and weakens Nigeria’s drive towards energy independence.

Also, the DPRP and supporters of the refinery’s position contend that by banning imports, Nigeria would conserve scarce foreign exchange, create jobs and deepen industrialisation. They maintain that allowing substantial imports into a market where local production capacity exists sends the wrong signal to investors.

However, the oil marketers and other stakeholders opposed to a complete halt in imports have argued that maintaining access to foreign supplies remains necessary to guarantee competition and prevent excessive market concentration.

According to them, allowing multiple suppliers helps ensure price discovery, protects consumers from potential supply disruptions and prevents a situation in which a single dominant refinery effectively controls the market. A fully liberalised downstream sector, they argue, should permit marketers to source products from any supplier, local or foreign, provided they meet regulatory requirements and offer competitive pricing.

Similarly, according to them, imports provide an important balancing mechanism and ensure that supply remains stable whenever local production falls below national demand. The outcome of the legal dispute is expected to shape the future structure of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

Still on the NMDPRA data, in March, Dangote supplied 34.2 million litres per day, amounting to approximately 1.060 billion litres during the month. Marketers imported 5.9 million litres daily or about 182.9 million litres in total. During that month, Dangote’s share of supply stood at 85.3 percent compared to imports’ 14.7 percent. Also, national consumption averaged 47.3 million litres daily, while refinery utilisation climbed further to 93.62 percent.

In April, the refinery supplied 40.7 million litres daily or approximately 1.221 billion litres during the month, while imports stood at 3.7 million litres daily, translating to about 111 million litres. Dangote accounted for 91.7 per cent of total supply, while imports represented 8.3 percent, with national consumption averaging 51.1 million litres daily and the refinery operating at 99.22 percent utilisation.

In the same vein, in May, the Dangote Refinery supplied 41.5 million litres daily, equivalent to approximately 1.287 billion litres during the month, while imports stood at 5.9 million litres daily or about 182.9 million litres in total.

The DPRP’s market share for the month stood at 87.5 percent compared to imports’ 12.5 percent, while national consumption averaged 47.4 million litres daily. The refinery utilisation reached 101.25 percent, the highest so far since it started operation.

Overall, the analysis showed that the refinery’s capacity utilisation rose steadily from 61.27 percent in January to 101.25 percent in May, underscoring the increasing role of the facility in meeting domestic fuel demand.

Over the same period, imports declined dramatically from 768.8 million litres in January to 84 million litres in February before fluctuating between 111 million litres and 182.9 million litres in subsequent months.

The data further showed that the DPRP exceeded imported volumes by about 474.3 million litres in January, 940.8 million litres in February, 877.3 million litres in March, 1.110 billion litres in April and 1.104 billion litres in May, highlighting the widening gap between local refining output and imported supplies.

Optimism over improved domestic refining output and cheaper petroleum products at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) now hang in the balance in the face of a 62 percent crude oil supply shortfall.

The $20 billion, 700,000 barrels per day facility, which began operations in 2021, is facing a severe crude supply shortfall of eight cargoes per month.

To operate at optimal capacity, the refinery requires 13 cargoes (ships) of crude monthly as against five cargoes currently being supplied by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd).

This was detailed in a report by the African Energy Council (AEC), which highlighted that the refinery is currently running at a third of its crude oil requirement.

The report lamented that the refinery running at a shortfall is not because the feedstock does not exist in Nigeria, but because the system supplying it has a vested interest in keeping the import window open.

The AEC added that the decision of the DPRP to file a suit against the Federal Government, NNPC Ltd and downstream regulator is less a legal story and more of a governance issue.

“When your mandated crude supplier competes with you in the same market, a shortfall of eight deliveries per month stops being a logistics problem and starts looking like a structural one,”, the report noted.

It added that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 was supposed to settle this.

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Specifically, the AEC noted that Section 317(9) served as an implicit agreement with private investors to refine locally, meet domestic demand, and operate in a context where import competition is effectively limited.

“That compact is now being tested in a Lagos courtroom and the outcome will say far more about Nigeria’s investment credibility than any roadshow ever could”.

The think-tank group pointed out that the real cost is not felt in Ibeju-Lekki but at the pump, at the CBN’s FX desk and in boardrooms across the continent watching to see whether Nigerian energy law means what it says.

The AEC argues that Dangote’s crude dispute lays bare a governance failure that no court ruling can fully fix.

The body lamented that a state oil company acting as both supplier and competitor to the very refinery built to end Nigeria’s import embarrassment is a conflict of interest hiding in plain sight.

“Until NNPC’s commercial and regulatory roles are cleanly separated, the PIA remains a promise on paper, and Africa’s most ambitious private energy investment stays hostage to institutional self-interest,” it noted.

The drop in crude supply to the Dangote refinery is further supported by latest data released by the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Authority (NMDPRA) for the month of May.

The report indicated that crude oil deliveries to Dangote, including other local refineries declined during the review period. Refiners received an average of 578,000 barrels of crude oil per day in May, down from 612,000 barrels per day in April, representing a decrease of 5.6 percent.

Industry observers pointed out that the development suggests that while local refining capacity continues to expand, refiners may still be facing operational and feedstock challenges that require supplementary imports to bridge supply gaps and maintain market stability.

The acquisition of an additional 40 percent interest in ND Western Limited, has seen Aradel Holding grow its total assets by a whopping 466 per cent to N9.9 trillion in the 2025 financial year.

Biztellers reports that the transaction conferred majority shareholding on Aradel, as its equity stake in Renaissance rose to 53.3 percent.

According to the energy company, the transaction, completed on December 31, 2025, also significantly expanded its reserves, production base and operational footprint, leading to a sharp increase in the size of its balance sheet.

Going by its audited results for the year ended December 31, 2025, total assets rose from N1.75 trillion in 2024 to N9.9 trillion, reflecting the consolidation of ND Western’s assets and liabilities and the carrying value of Aradel’s effective interest in Renaissance.

The company also reported a 192 percent increase in profit after tax to N757.3 billion from N259.1 billion in the previous year, while revenue rose by 20 percent to N699.4 billion from N581.2 billion.

In the same vein, operating profit increased by 152 percent to N733.6 billion from N291.4 billion, while earnings from associates rose by 246 per cent to N109.5 billion.

Aradel noted that the operational and income statement figures for 2025 do not include contributions from the newly acquired businesses because the transactions were completed on the last day of the financial year. It said only the balance sheet impact was consolidated as of December 31, 2025, while the full operational and earnings contributions are expected to be reflected from 2026.

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On the results, Chief Executive Officer, Adegbite Falade, said, “2025 was a defining year as we continued to strengthen our position as an integrated energy operating platform. We delivered record revenue and profitability, while executing the most transformational strategic expansion in our history.

Our additional 40 percent investment in ND Western and the resultant increase in our total effective interest in Renaissance (53.3 percent) significantly expanded our reserves, production base and operational footprint, positioning Aradel to operate at materially greater scale from 2026 onwards.”

On operations, crude oil production rose by three per cent to 14.1 thousand barrels per day from 13.8 thousand barrels per day in 2024, while gas production increased by 59 percent to 51.4 million standard cubic feet per day from 32.4 million standard cubic feet per day.

The company recorded crude oil sales of 4.1 million barrels during the year, up 32 per cent from the previous year, while refined product output increased by 18 percent to 313.4 million litres. Refinery utilisation improved to 49 percent from 40 percent in 2024. Gas revenue increased by 72 percent to N48.6 billion, while refined products revenue rose by 18 percent to N210.8 billion. Crude oil exports remained the largest revenue source, contributing N440.1 billion, or 63 percent of total revenue.

The company reported net cash generated from operating activities of N179.7 billion, compared with N311.9 billion in the previous year, while cash and cash equivalents rose to N1.5 trillion at the end of the period from N411.8 billion a year earlier.

Aradel’s board proposed a final dividend of N23 per share, bringing the total dividend for the 2025 financial year to N33 per share, compared with N26.4 per share paid for 2024.

Falade said the company would focus on integrating its expanded asset base, increasing production and diversifying revenue streams. “The consolidation of NDW and Renaissance fundamentally reset the scale of the Company’s balance sheet, giving us the asset and reserve base to underpin our future expansion. Our 2025 audited accounts therefore capture the balance-sheet impact of these acquisitions; their full earnings contribution will be reflected in the Group’s consolidated financial results from 2026 onwards.”